ROKU
$ROKU Double Top Trade Idea$ROKU has earnings coming up on the 28th I believe and is in a text book "double top" pattern. I got price targets of $93.45, $87.83 and $81.90.
It's crossed over the neck line @ $99.64 on the daily. A daily candle closed under $99.64 would probably be the safest entry but I'm already in 4/29 $80 P and 4/29 $75 P.
Generally speaking Roku usually follows $NFLX. In regards to earnings I don't expect as an extreme move as Netflix but I am bearish on $ROKU leading up to earnings this week coming up. I'll update my position win or lose when I close out my contracts.
*I'm a self taught trader, this is not trading advice in anyway shape or form.
ARKK growth weakness still loomingThere is a Bearish wolfe wave setup on the 30 min time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the red perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is $38 which is expected to reach this price target in May 11. At this time, ARKK is neutral and we will consider Bearish position when prices start getting extended.
WAS ROKU sell-off predictable??Of course it was! The Double Top is one of the most obvious chart patters you can find:
And i think it might go just where it all started: at the Covid lockdown level of $59.
I know that today ARK bought around 400K shares, but i think they are wrong, ROKU hasn`t bottomed yet!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ROKU small drop then big pop - using harmonics and wolfekraftLook for a drop to around 104 (102-107 range = bounce zone) to start next week, followed by a pre-earnings run to 130s, then earnings pop/continuation to low 160s. After that it will be time to get short for a drop back to 120s-130s (will revisit and adjust for precise levels along the way and send updates).
Logic :
- My model for overall market (in sync with crypto) is for a small decline early next week- SPY 432 - and then upside through April 29-May 11 - SPY 450-455... after this expecting final leg down of bottoming structure (~ SPY 400-415 by late summer/early fall) to complete bottoming structure prior to starting a bullish impulse wave to new highs into 2023. The math for ROKU aligns with this direction and timeline, and so do a lot of other names!!
- Correlation to NFLX has been a thing for ROKU in the past - my model for NFLX expects Bullish Earnings price action (earnings this week)... pop and continuation to 400s by early May followed by drop back to 350ish. This schedule indicates ROKU will bottom (locally) prior to NFLX earnings release and then begin its own pre-earnings run up.
Chart :
- Completed Bullish Navarro 200 harmonic March 15th at the 98 level. The " enter long " for the start of retracement to 272 (pt1, expect by 2023), 500 (pt2, later...), 732 (pt3, like 3-5 years probably) is sustained run above 137
- Post-Navaro ROKU completed a Bearish Shark (semi-major) Harmonic and hit pt1, pt2 is 104
- I am noticing a larger (major) Bearish Harmonic* forming that will complete C near the 104 level, and would complete with a run to D = 161-168 {(*) could be any of the following: Max Gartley (most likely), Max Bat, Leonardo}
- Also noticing a (minor) Bullish Harmonic** forming in conjunction with (*) - (**) would complete D around 104 and have a 1.618 retracement to 161 and is likely a harmonic known as a TOTAL 1
- There was a bearish wolfe wave end of march with 1-4 projection/support still needing to be hit to complete downside move. This aligns with the 104 level early this coming week (4/18-4/20)
- There was a bullish wolfe wave that broke out of channel end of last week and will need to re-test top of channel before running to 1-4 projection/resistance... guess were the top of channel retest level is... hello 104 (again). Note that options are priced for move to 103-121 next week, 104 makes sense in alignment with chart structure.
Prediction: :
- Based on the above info, if ROKU bounces around 104 early next week my max initial target going into earnings is 139 in the right conditions (i.e. NFLX gets big earnings pop, market starts bullish run into May) - 139 would means 1-4 wolfe projection/resistance is hit by around Apr 25-27th , ROKU earnings is Apr 28. If this happens that would trigger enter long (above 137) on the retracement for major Bullish Navarro 200. A more conservative initial target is mid 120s going into earnings, this would save some room to continue to 1-4 projection post-earnings.
- Target by May 10 is 161
- Expectation after target is drop from 161 to test the 137 entry level. This drop would be in sync with expected market bottom. Depending on when Market bottom and where, ROKU could drop further than 137 in accordance with (*).
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, but if you're curious how I am playing this:
- looking to enter Apr 29 120.00 calls and May 13 130.00 calls IF ROKU bounces from 104ish early next week. Would take profits on the Apr 29s before the earnings release if my prediction materializes, and let the May 13s ride to target.
Bless you all, let me know your thoughts.
ROKU reverse H&SRoku looking pretty good here. Been massively beaten down and due for a correction. Reverse H&S and indicators are looking pretty good. I think it could fall a tiny bit more before it pops but if you zoom out to pre-COVID (the thin green lines on my chart) you'll see it has reverted to that channel / mean and actually just dipped below it a bit, so barring something insane it should only go up from here. GL
ROKU - Falling Wedge Breakout + Bull FlagWeekly Timeframe:
Strong Hidden Bullish Divergence
"Batman" Pattern
Major volume spike at $100 bottom, aligning with previous support areas
Daily Timeframe:
Broke out of a Falling Wedge
Bounced at an RSI-based supply zone
Formed Bull Flag just under supply zone and volume shelf
65m Timeframe:
Bull Flag under supply zone
Rejected Trendline formed from March 15th bottom
Volume and flow suggesting short term bullish sentiment
I expect a bounce for the severely beaten-down stock. Whether it will be a full revival to all-time highs, I cannot say, though I am quite doubtful. Playing the short term bounce. I am leaning bullish, but will stay neutral and watch price action.
With a breakout from the bull flag:
PT1: $136
PT2: $140
PT3: $142
PT4 (Stretch): $148
Failing the trendline would invalidate this setup and could be cause for puts.
Roku Trade Setup! Hello Everyone! From an Elliot wave perspective, This is a super clean chart. The recent 8 month decline in roku was sharp and didnt correct up in any way. It also reached the .786 retracement of the entire move up since IPO. Because of this, I believe we are in a wave B of larger wave 2. I would wait for roku to drop around 110, and go long targeting 190-250. From there, I expect prices to reach 55 where there is major weekly liquidity that needs to be filled.
Zoom out the Zoom..! The past 3 yearsI think whatever you need to know about a Formation of bubbles and their burst you can see in the ZM chart:
An 805% move in 18 months followed by an 84% decline in the next 17 months:
During that 84% decline, you see a 36% and 48% positive surge, but the aftermath remained the same..!
Even a significant change in the fundamental did not help:
But ZM was not alone, other examples are:
NIO: +5500% followed by -80%
DOCU:
And the mother of All bubbles:
ARKK:
and the Final point:
Gauging Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is not just the market's knee-jerk reaction to a particular event, but how it's performing over the long term. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Whether or not there is going to be a bull market or a bear market can only be determined over a longer time period.
However, not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of upward and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.(Investopedia)
Conclusion:
You can be in the Bearish market yet see the most Exotic Bullish rallies..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*I have open positions in SARK(74.36), SOXS(40), TZA(30.60)
$NVDA railiyig with the market.$NVDA has been trending up for the past few days rallying with the market along with most tech stocks.
volume also picks up compared from last year. with this much volume going on in $NVDA making more
volatile like TLSA. no exciting news so far, so base from the indicators and historical charts.
this stocks could push a bit more for 1 or 2 days before it reach its pivot point. unless some news comes out.
Day trade or scalp target play: 03/ 22 /22
Buy call above 271.68 sell at above 277.03
Buy puts below 262.83 sell at 256.03 or below
Hello everyone,
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