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INDEX: VALUE LINE GEOMETRICThe Value Line Composite Index is a stock index containing approximately 1,675 companies from the NYSE, American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Toronto, and over-the-counter markets. The Value Line Composite Index has two forms: The Value Line Geometric Composite Index (the original equally weighted index) and the Value Line Arithmetic Composite Index (an index which mirrors changes if a portfolio held equal amounts of stock.) These indexes are typically published in the Value Line Investment Survey, created by Arnold Bernhard, the founder, and CEO of Value Line Inc. The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change. The daily price change of the Value Line Geometric Composite Index is found by multiplying the ratio of each stock's closing price to its previous closing price, and raising that result to the reciprocal of the total number of stocks. As market participants, we should be taking a scientific approach when putting money to work, always assuming our positions are wrong and need to prove themselves. As part of that process, one piece of evidence we want to look at on a consistent basis is the health of the overall market. One such way to gauge market health is studying market breadth. In other words, how many stocks are actually participating in any directional move. That's why we're writing today about an index you might not be aware of but should be familiar with. M timeframe BULL W timeframe BULL D timeframe BULL 2018 NEW ATH MACD M bullish momentum BULL 2009-2019 UPTREND TREND LINE ACTS AS SUPPORT VERTICAL GREEN LINES show previous moments in history where M MACD have advanced to the upside into positive territory and have gained bullish momentum BULL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE 1998,2007 resistance acts as support BULL FIBONACCI LEVELS act as support BULL IR CUTS -> RISK ON ASSETS APPRECIATION EXANTE is a broker for professionals. Direct access to over 50 financial markets through one account. Stocks & ETFs, Currencies, Metals, Futures , Options, Funds, Bonds, Crypto¬currencies. Any information contained on this website is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investments or related services that may be referenced here. Investing in certain instruments, including stocks, options, futures , foreign currencies, and bonds involve a high level of risk. Single trading account Trade in 50+ markets in the US, Europe and Asia — from your all-in-one multicurrency account on any device exante.eu
NYSE:VALUGLong
by EXANTE-TOG
USDCAD Likely To Test 1.3000 Amid Stubborn BOC and Risk ON Mood!The main chart shows the WEEKLY TF of USDCAD pair. There was a neat ascending channel that was violated a few months ago and the price went to test around 1.30200 level. Since then the price has been steadily rising until it HIT 1.33600 level. This created a short term ascending channel which was clearly violated a couple of days back and now the price is likely to target 1.3000 level. The above chart shows the DAILY TF of USDCAD, which shows the channel has been violated and its potential target! The main chart shows the price has been confined in a triangle and the price is likely to target the lower end of the trendline which lies at around 1.3000 level. To support this technical aspects, the fundamental aspects also align neatly together. First of all the Bank of CANADA left the interest unchanged and continue their wait and see approach rather than just easing like the other central banks. This is bullish for the LOONIE, however i feel the price will hit 1.3000 level after which the bank will start to be dovish and the price will likely bounce and test the 1.34000 level in the future. To add to this, the demand for OIL at the moment is adequate as the talks of trade deal continue. Since OIL is the major driver behind this CAD pair, if the talks continue to progress well we could see LOONIE get stronger. I am already short on USDCAD since 3 months ago when the main weekly channel broke, however the price only HIT 1.30200 level before reversing. My take profit at the moment is 1.3000 with SL at 1.34000. Should you wish to enter you can do so if and only if the RR is 1 or greater than 1. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
SPX500 TO REMAIN RANGE BOUND?It is an important day in terms of news as the FOMC meeting minutes are released. This will likely rock the stock markets and depending on the tone set out by the Fed the market could remain range bounce of break out. If they start to talk down the dollar which could be expected due to recession talks the market could react positively and a clear break higher will be likely. If they stick to the same outlook then the market could test the key lows and trendline support. Expect to see some volatility here and some potential sell-offs before the meeting.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by BlueberryMarkets
Bulls & Bears Fighting To Take Control Of Yellow Metal's Trend! Finally the H&S PATTERN has been completed on the daily charts and price has HIT the ascending trendline support that had been in the region of 1270.00! Therefore now the question remains, WHERE WILL THE YELLOW METAL HEAD NEXT? Be noted that the price has already HIT the ascending trendline where a lot of BUYERS AND SELLERS will fight to take control of the trend. Have a look at the main chart here, the red horizontal lines represent the concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly TIMEFRAME and they represent where the price might be heading next if a breakout occurs. Currently the price is supported by an ascending trendline and beneath this trendline there is another long term trendline, what this means if a break of the current held trendline occurs the price might head towards the 1235.00 region where the next ascending trendline is present. On the flip side, should the bulls gain enough momentum, the descending trendline (have a look at the main chart) will have to be broken and the price will probably skyrocket to 1270.00 level. Fundamentally, the risk aversion is taking all the headlines at the moment, but the many central bank expecting to cut rates this year and eurozone slowdown will probably take the yellow metal higher. All in all the price is at a crucial level and we may see a lot of volatility, but as a precaution we should probably enter once the price has broken the structures (see the chart) before making an entry. This just represents the current outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet in the near future i will post the trade details in a new post. Hope you found this helpful cheers
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FX618Analysis
Where Will EURCAD Head Next? Weekly TF Perspective Explained!Have a look at the main charts, where the blue horizontal lines represent concrete support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts and they represent where the price might head next after the breakout occurs. At the moment the price has been supported by an ascending trendline respected more than 5 times and a descending channel. Shall a breakout occur we could see the price test the nearby support or resistance levels (blue lines). Now thats the technical picture, fundamentally a break to the downside seems on the card as the EUROZONE faces slowdown and CAD supported by the rising OIL prices is making a move to the downside more favorable. It remains to be seen what happens in the near future. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. This just represents my analysis and future outlook of this pair. cheers
by FX618Analysis
YELLOW METAL Has already Broken the Neckline of H&S!Price on daily charts has already broken the crucial neckline of the H&S pattern and to add to that the price has also retested the neckline! Now we should see the momentum gathering up towards the ascending trendline beneath this pattern which lies in the region of 1262.00 level. For those of you who would prefer to take this pair SHORT please be advised that the risk to reward ratio is no longer 1:1 in other words the risk may exceed as the stop loss needs to be present above the right shoulder. in this case its not favorable to enter at the moment. i am already SHORT on GOLD since the price was at around 1295.00 level back around 1.5 months ago. For now we should see the pace to the downside gather traction as the RISK ON mood dominates the markets. This is just an update regarding this pair and by no means is a trade setup as the risk to reward ratio for the new bears are not in your favor. always manage your risks well when trading. If you like my analysis please drop it a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive further SWING trading analysis and setups in the future. cheers
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF Looks for Decisive Break Of Triangle to Target 1.03000!Whilst markets on RISK ON moods, the SAFEHAVEN FX pairs such as JPY and CHF TURN OFF the investors. In this case CHF is paired with the USD, which just thinking fundamentally about it is the best pair to trade alongside USDJPY when the markets are in RISK ON mood! While DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) has been declining in the last days this pair however has been building gains to go along. Now just imagine when the USD (DXY)starts gaining traction, it will most likely make USDCHF jump northwards propelling it to the next resistance that lies at 1.03000 level Fundamentally the DXY is consolidating as EUR recovers. Once the EURUSD recovery is complete which could happen at around 1.145000 level, we may likely see USD bulls returning with sharp buying pressure which would result in USDCHF trend upwards. Now for this to happen technically, have a look at the main chart where price seems to be confined in a slightly elevated triangle with the upper trendline preventing the breakout of this pair. We need the price of weekly candle to close above this trendline of the main triangle to confirm any long entry! After this is complete we have to let the pair retrace slightly before placing a BUY order with the potential target of 1.03000 in our sight! I hope you find my analysis useful, if so i would appreciate if you leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive more analysis. Once the trade criteria are met i will post the entry details in a post with this analysis attached. cheers and thank you
Long
by FX618Analysis
YELLOW METAL Might Break The Neckline Of H&S Amid RISK ON MarketMarkets are in the RISK ON mood which usually puts pressure on safe assets and currencies including the yellow metal. Here we see a HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern on the verge of completion! The neckline will likely be broken soon enough as the risk ON markets dominates the appetite of the investors. Once the neckline gets broken we should see the selling pressure building up towards the next ascending trendline support that lies in the region of 1260.00 level. I am already short on this pair with my entry being at 1295.000 level , TP at 1267 & SL at 1321.00 My trade that is short has been active since one month and once the neckline breaks we can expect the TP levels to be reaching soon enough. This is just an outlook behind the current yellow metal state and where its heading, if you want to enter i suggest you do that at your own risk as the price has drifted away from our entry level and the RISK TO REWARD RATIO will NOT be 1:1 in this case. Nonetheless its a very high probability setup both technically and fundamentally. If you like my analysis please drop me a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more future analysis. cheers and thanks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
DO NOT BUY USDJPY Until the Wedge breaks! Initial Target 114.000This pair has broken all the vital levels technically, furthermore fundamentally its easily on the course of hitting the next resistance that lies at 114.00 level after which it might likely further target 118.00 level! However even though USDJPY seems it might HIT 114.00 level by next week or the week ahead, technically we are confined in a very concrete wedge that has been respected on a numerous occasions! Have a look at the main chart for weekly TF. The upper trendline of the wedge is clearly acting as potential resistance which needs to be broken (the weekly candle needs to close outside this trendline) for us to have technical confirmation to go LONG! Markets are currently on a RISK ON appetite mood and it will likely intensify in the coming weeks which would drag the yellow metal down and other safe haven pairs such as eurjpy and usdjpy. Its an excellent opportunity to take this trade LONG whilst the markets are in RISK ON mood. Have a look at the image above taken from the daily TF of this pair. H & S Patterns are reversal patterns however in some cases they act as consolidation patterns! Here we see an inverse H & S present on the DAILY TF, a break of the neckline would likely propel the price to break the LONG TERM trendline on weekly charts. After this is done we can wait for the price to retrace slightly before entering a LONG position. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS ON THIS PAIR AND SHALL THE CRITERIA MEET I WILL POST THE TRADE DETAILS IN A NEW POST. Please if you like my analysis give it a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you would like to receive more analysis. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For DOW JONES And AUDJPYHello traders! Today we will talk about positive correlation between stocks and xxx/jpy cross pairs, while we are in RISK ON sentiment. Well, as you know, stocks are in uptrend and there can be room for more upside once a bigger correction fully unfolds. At the same time, xxx/jpy pairs are usually in positive correlation with stocks that can be clearly seen in the first chart above! The best examples at this stage are Dow Jones and AUDJPY, where we see a potential bullish triangle in progress which may take some time, because we still see an unifinished five-leg A-B-C-D-E sideways movement. Currently we are observing a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally to the upper side of a triangle range for wave D, from where we may see another sell-off for wave E and once a wave E completes, this is when a big triangle can be finished that can push the price back to highs! These triangles are valid while price keeps trading above blue wave A swing low and bullish confirmed can be only above blue wave B swing high! That said, we are patiently waiting to see if the triangle will unfold as we wish! Trade well! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
DJ:DJIEducation
by ew-forecast
4
Short USD/JPY via risk=> Here we are isolating the Yen once more and expecting a worsening outlook of US assets to continue which will raise the prospect of asset repatriation out of the US. Whilst risk may be rebounding temporarily as the FED attempts a dovish shift, and US-China trade tensions are likely to continue de-escalating, USDJPY will still like remain on offer amid broader USD weakness. Here we also expect the rebound in risk sentiment to be temporary rather than fixed, meaning JPY will see some inflows. If Japanese banks tighten conditions further we will have a greater incentive for real money to reduce their exposure in the US. The only risk here is if risk on sentiment stays supported and the US macro outlook improves. For those interested in more details on the "flash crash" please see our previous USDJPY weekly chart! Good luck and all the best for those invested in the US.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Ethereum Rally into Constantinople Fork / Alt-Season (Risk on)Ethereum is sitting on strong historical support vs. BTC and is exhibiting bullish divergences in both momentum and volume. With the upcoming Constantinople hard fork, which is reducing the block reward from 3 to 2 Eth, Eth may rally into the event after months of downtrend vs. BTC. As is indicated via the chart, Ethereum rallies vs BTC (eth outperforming btc) have led to a risk on approach to higher risk crypto assets known as altcoins. Many refer to this event as "Alt Season". If Ethereum can manage to rally vs. btc, other higher risk assets may see explosive rallies, as sellers have become extremely exhausted and sell side liquidity is almost non existent.
Long
by LARP_Capital
SPX500USD (H4)After price formed a double bottom at key level support, a strong bullish impulse took place breaking all barriers of the downtrend structure. Price closed this Friday with a bullish engulfing candlestick breaking above resistance along with the major descending trendline. Will be anticipating a slight pullback to retest broken resistance (61.8 fib) as new support for a further push to the upside. This pair is important to watch as it has a strong correlation to the forex market. When price pushes up, AUD & NZD gain strength. When price moves lower on the SPX, this causes fear in the market & people move their money to safe haven assets like the CHF & JPY.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Profound_Ambition
Long NZDJPY After my colossal mis-read of the risk sentiment I managed to get out of GBPJPY at breakeven. I now expect the Kiwi to be bid as a more risk on sentiment and recent bounce in economic data should support the antipodean currency. Given the risk on tone and the combination of strong Asia equities close and Kuroda's comments pouring water on any plans to scale back BOJ QE. There should be safe haven out flow weighing on the JPY. I have an order Long NZDJPY from the 38.2 pullback the mornings rally. Stops behind 61.8 and targets at the 1.13 extension.
Long
by FX_Trade_Plan
EurJpy. A revisit of old levels with new perspectives.On Oct 5, did an analysis on Eurjpy where the trade was triggered only 3 days later. From execution to achieving the exact Target profit was a total of 8 days. They always ask what will you do differently if you get to relive your live again or if you are young again? But the interesting thing about trading is that you get to relive redo and reenact your beliefs and mindsets within hours, days and weeks The only difference is that every trade is a new trade. Do not remember the previous winning or losing trade. Focus on the task at hand. It's a NEW trade.Full-s Key levels to formulate one's trading will be at 130.60 and 129 levels. Other levels is a waste of time.
by revelationtrading