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Tesla vs Pharma: Selling Safety to Take on RiskRisk on or risk off? Those kind of sentiment changes are one of the most important things for traders in the stock market. Today gave an example of how quickly the herd can sometimes pivot. Tesla, a classic “risk on” name recently struggled near 52-week lows, while “safe-haven” Eli Lilly pushed to new record highs. But Thursday’s rally on softer inflation data seems to have changed all of that and drawn investors back to riskier growth stocks. This process of selling safety and moving back to risk seems especially visible on the intraday chart below, which compares price action minute by minute. Notice how LLY slid early (despite a lack of news) as TSLA muscled higher. Next came an inversely correlated rebound in favor of LLY, followed by more downside in the drug stock and more upside in the electric-car maker. Most traders know this process of risk on and risk off. But seldom does it appear so clearly. It’s a good lesson on the importance of sentiment in the market. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by TradeStation
EURUSD(liquidity proxy)if BO parity, $ falls, gold,equity rallyEURUSD may be used as a liquidity proxy. It has been falling for a long time in a big down channel & Is now bouncing right at the dotted median line. (4Q is historically bullish going into new year specially on midterm election years, where markets bottom in late October) Watch closely if EURUSD will break above parity 1:1 again in a big move. Then most probably that is where the 4Q rally shall start extending to 1Q2023. I still believe there is still a wave 5 down for the C wave of the big ABC correction from ATH. In 2Q2023, ABC may end in a double bottom near the dotted median or even much lower to the lower channel in case of a recession, which is more probable in Europe than in the US. After ABC completes sometime before end of recession. Equities will rally to the start of a new EW cycle. Not trading advice
Long
by xtremerider8
SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
DXY D1 - Bullish Break ExpectedDXY D1 With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds). US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat. Which might see DXY dip below support. US stock space is slower paced and a little delayed. So correlation isn't going to be 100% inverted.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
EURUSD WILL FALL ... It has BegunNarrative goes like this: We'll call this one #MarketMechanics The plot is very deceiving from the start of the week but not really because I wrote the scripts to this one:) Knowing the real bias is DOWN today we began this trading week going in the right direction. But to give the traders a little plot twist all of a sudden we go LONG at the bottom of our MZ. Suddenly all of the Short retail traders began to watch their house money dissipate until it was no more. This was just to trick them out of their fortune. The Long retail traders were in a state of joy because they started picking out Lambos and mansions as they saw their accounts go UP!. This was just the fake out. What they didn't know price was simply hunting the shorts Stop Losses above the MZ. After the Shorts were completely Liquidated the plot thickens: Now all of the Long Retail traders that did not pull their profits will soon begin to watch their lambos and Mansions disappear because price is now liquidating the longs and headed directly for their Stop Losses below MZ Structure and putting the Original Long play back in effect and the Shorts will Win the Day and eventuually long term the week. How's that for a Monday Narrative?:) As always never over leverage. This will keep you in the narrative until its completed the scene. Even if you have to adjsut the script a little to fit the narrative. Trust the set up. Because every set up needs time to manifest. Have Fun watching your accounts compound like a a OAK TREE. #SniperGang EVERYBODy EAT$
Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
4
EURUSD Has Booked a 1st Class Ticket Down South!The narrative for next week’s set up goes like this: There is an objective FACT that certain times oof the year the market does certain things. The market has cycles, seasons… just like Winter, Spring, Summer Fall. At these times things change, similar to the Forex Market. The Forex Market Moves based on time contrary to what most teach you that buying and selling pressure moves the market. The software that offers price in the market could care less about who’s buying or who’s selling. The market moves on TIME and PRICE. When they meet they produce true Market Structure. No more no less. This is #TradingMadeSimple Therefore we leverage that fact in confluence with KNOWING the times and prices that will cause the algorithm to engage Macro Moves to other areas of Liquidity aka Money in the this 7 Trillion Dollar Forex Market. August 1st began with what I call the Market Maker 52 Fake out. A whole day of Longs then the next day it Liquidates all Swing Traders who were holding with a next day of shorts creating an IMBALANCE in the Market. The Market always wants to be in a state of equilibrium. Therefore when imbalances happen you can be sure that the market will come back and fill that imbalance to re balance the market. Price did just that on August 4, 2022. The next day it filled that imbalance, and on August 8, 2022 Price liquidated all Shorts and made the Vertical move off of a MACRO PIVOT POINT to fill the previous imbalance that was made July 5, 2022. That Imbalance was filled on August 10, 2022. The algorithm began it’s predictable Market Maker 52 Fake out to jam up retail traders who were holding the long. Then on August 12, 2022 the software initiated the Macro Move to liquidate all longs and is now headed South for the winter:) In confluence with the DXY being in a Risk ON State aka LONG. The DXY is filling previous imbalances that were made the previous weeks with so much news trying to manage INFLATION here in the states. When the DXY goes up, EURUSD goes down. This is also #TradingMadeSimple. The market has 3 moves: Up, Down, Sideways. no more no less. By identifying KEY areas aka PRICES in the market and KNOWING the Forex Schedule we call #SniperForexSchedule you can always leave the markets with the BAG. And this is the goal daily to COMPOUND our trading accounts 3,5,8,10,20, some days 50%. Compounding is magic and when you allow it to grow your account you will develop the patience and discipline to get in and out of the markets and leave daily with your compound. Never over leverage. Trust your trade set up. Have Fun! I AM PRO TRADING MADE SIMPE> We are #SniperGang EVERYBODY EAT$
TVC:DXYShort
by Master-Jedi-Trader
DXYHTF weekly chart analysis shows that W3 is likely in at my $109.50 target posted 3-4 weeks ago in my group channel & here on TV as well. The extended 3rd wave is actually structurally perfect. W3 hits the 1.618% fib extension as in most strong bullish momentum charts and forms a bearish hammer top on the weekly showing that the top of wave 3 is likely now in. This being said W4 can hit the 618% fib retracement level around $97.32 or the 50% at $99.60 or even the 382% around $101.88. As of now there's no way to be sure how wave 4 plays out but I expect Wave 4 to hit $98 and during this TF of the DXY W4 the stock market & crypto markets should outperform vs the DXY and possibly we finally get the big blow off top to the SP500 around 6,000 and $78k BTC. After that W5 will come fast and destroy any risk assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by Big_Mike716
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ✅✅✅Hello traders! ✅ Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as I use this confluence to enter trades. Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity, its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing are they buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money On other side RISK OFF is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe. ✅ RISK ON Assets Stock Market Crypto USOil AUD NZD CAD EUR GBP ✅ RISK OFF Assets Government Bonds JPY CHF USD GOLD SILVER
Education
by Snick3rSD
NZD/USD - BUY SET UP AS INTEREST RATES IN NEW ZEALAND RISE We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S. This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD will lose money holding the position open overnight. The U.S Dollar has been strong in recent weeks as stock markets have fallen due to the Federal Reserves' commitment to raising interest rates aggressively to contain inflation running at 8.30%. When stock markets fall globally, investors historically sell international currencies and flood into the safety of the U.S Dollar, as its the worlds reserve currency. However, when stocks recover as they always do, investors will quickly sell dollars and move back into international currencies as they invest globally in equities again, causing the dollar to weaken in exchange rates and push up NZD/USD.
Long
by KayansMarkets
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades. ✅ Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing the are buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. ✅ Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money on viceversa risk off is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
Education
by Snick3rSD
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Back in the Saddle AgainRussian Ruble tumbling leaving bitcoin as the logical choice to move money for Russians and Russia asset holders. Bond yields dropping as speculation points to the Fed and ECB postponing rate hikes in the face of a lengthly conflict in Ukraine. Risk-on is back in the saddle again. Expect to see consolidation around the 21W EMA as Bitcoin caught a bid. Yesterdays move opens up retracements higher. Next stop UT - Upward Thrust @ 74k? Maybe... Russia still needs to open their stock market. Whats next.. HyperInflation... Some interesting times are upon us the next 15 days to the next FOMC.
by SPYvsGME
21
USDJPY UNLIKELY TO BREAK 112.000 BARRIER! Here is WHYA very interesting pair to trade during this ongoing pandemic, certainly USDJPY has caught the eye of many traders as both currencies acting as SAFEHAVEN. However in RISKOFF mood, the advantage certainly lies with the JPY, as the SAFEHAVEN status makes it appreciate against various counterparts such as the AUD, NZD, CAD, EURO, GBP. In the case of USD and CHF, the JPY has a bit of tussle appreciating since all are considered SAFEHAVEN assets. Looking at the bigger picture, in the RISK OFF markets the JPY certainly appreciates against the USD. For example since the pandemic began, we saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and fall to levels low as much as 105.000 In the RISKON markets, there is no doubt that the JPY weakens against various counterparts, but mostly against the USD. For example, when the global population started being vaccinated slowly, the signs of recovery in the USDJPY was quite evident, as the pair inched closer to 116.000 from lows of 105.000. A QUITE BIG RISE compared to other currencies paired with JPY. CURRENT MARKET MOOD: SEEMS TO BE RISKOFF AND RISKON. BUT PARTICULARY SKEWED TOWARDS THE RISKOFF AS THE OMICRON FEARS GATHER PACE Its festive season and the spread of the new variant would likely make the cases skyrocket, however as many are already vaccinated and boosters shots being administered, we should NOT expect much panic such as the one that was caused by the DELTA variant!. There are other several reasons behind to support this statement HERD IMMUNITY: since the pandemic began and up until now, the whole population has likely already achieved natural immunity and/or acquired immunity. Even as the new variant arise, our immune system are already equipped to fight off the virus DEATHS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW: comparing the fatality that delta variant was causing, so far if you observe the number of new omicron cases, the fatality is very very low. This is because of the HERD immunity. COVID 19 IS HERE TO STAY: Just like the COMMON COLD, COVID19 is here to stay with us. as it mutates and our immune system has also been equipped to fight off new strains. the COMMON COLD and COVID 19 are both classed from the same family of CORONAVIRUS. therefore the world is learning to deal and learn how to live with COVID 19. THE WORLD WANTS TO RETURN TO NORMAL: People are tired of lockdowns and as per the above point, are willing to live with the virus. be it using vaccines more often or just their natural immunity function. As such major financial banks are already predicting the economic recovery in 2022 and beyond GETTING TO THE POINT Current market mood is mixed, that is why it could be seen that USDJPY is ranging after falling sharply on the news that south Africa has detected a new variant. There is no doubt that this festive season would make the new cases sky rocket, however as looking at all the above points, mainly the vaccines and immunity, we can expect the fatality rate to be much much lower compared to the havoc that DELTA variant caused. Looking at the main chart, the festive season would likely cause the USDJPY price to HIT 112.000 or 113.000 area which is the lower end of the channel as the markets panic and enter the RISKOFF MOOD. But as usual the HERD IMMUNITY AND VACCINES BOOSTER ROLEOUT, would make this less threatening and markets might finally realize this and enter in RISKON mood. This would make the USDJPY price rise and possibly HIT 118.000 in 2022. However the covid 19 is highly unlikely to cause markets to enter in a long term RISKOFF mood, therefore we should expect this channel to hold and guide this pair steadily towards the 118.000 mark in 2022. In short this pandemic has caused the markets to be so cautious, however looking at all this every large DIP in USDJPY should be seen a buying opportunity. CHEERS AND THANKS. HOPE YOU FOUND THIS INSIGHT HELPFUL
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY: Odds In Favor Of USD! 118.00 A Real Possibility in 2022For 2022, many financial banks are predicting the USDJPY to HIT 118.00 level. Tonight the FED guidance path for next year could likely clear the path for USDJPY to move higher next year. Tight tapering and 2 interest rates hikes have already been priced in by the markets in 2022, should the economic data be strong as expected next year on month to month basis, we could see USDJPY slowly inch closer to the desired target of 118.000. Furthermore, the covid-19 crisis around the world seems to be easing off, as the new variant would likely not pose too much threat because of the effectiveness of current available vaccines. With major economies expected to slowly recover next year, the demand for safehaven YEN should ease off considerably. We should also see the commodities currencies appreciate against the YEN in this aspect. All in all, the odds for USDJPY to climb next year are pretty much set and any major DIP would be seen as an opportunity to BUY. Technically the rising dynamic trendline should act as a concrete support in this scenario. To technically trade this LONG opportunity, it would be wise to wait for the monthly candle to close above 115.000 first so as to confirm that the particular resistance has indeed been broken. After this, a LONG trade can be taken with stops below the rising trendline and targets at 118.00 region. Keep in mind to manage the risk as the RR should ideally be 1:1 My analysis is not meant to be a trading signal nor financial advice! Its highly advisable to perform your own analysis and trade markets at your own risk. Please LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this analysis helpful in assisting with your own personal analysis. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
RISK ON vs RISK OFFI tried to show you in this example what is the difference between risk on and risk off, what financial instrumnets rise during times of finacial stress aka risk off and what instruments rise during time of financial optimism aka risk on. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY P.S - Where do you think CRYPTOCURRENCY market goes? Into a RISK ON or RISK OFF financial instrument ? Comment below
TVC:VIXEducation
by AnonimFXRO
3