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Retracement

EUR/USD shorts to take key levels of liquidity belowI am expecting EUR/USD shorts this week as the Euro tends to align with the pound. overall from my HTF analysis the euro is bearish but we can expect price to retrace in order to further push down. However, this week we see one of two options, price either pushing up to take the ASH created from market open before continuing in the downtrend from the 45min supply. The second option price will push up to the 4h supply, validating the 2h demand that lays below ensuring price pushes up which will be it's HTF retracement before price overall comes to the downside. we will see how price plays out this week from market open and its intentions will become slightly clearer on Monday and we will then better understand if price is ready to make its retracement or price wishes to continue down further.
Short
by JamelCapital
Trading Timeframes: Measured Moves and ContextIn the previous post, we introduced the concept of measured moves, a structured framework for estimating future price behavior. This method is based on the observation that each swing move tends to be similar in size to the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach offers a practical way to approximate the potential extension of a swing move. A common question that arises is: which timeframe should you use for measured moves, and how do you choose the correct swing move? These questions open up a completely different and important topic. Imagine analyzing a chart across three timeframes: daily, weekly, and monthly. You’ve projected a viable measured move on each chart. Now, ask yourself: which projection is the correct one? Where is the move most likely to play out? Daily Weekly Monthly The reality is that there is no singular “correct” answer. The appropriate measurement depends entirely on your purpose as a trader, the timeframe you operate in, and trading style. The Fractal Nature of Price Action Price action is fractal by nature. Regardless of whether you’re observing a 30-minute chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart, the price displayed is the same in real time. However, the purpose of charts is to provide context. Each timeframe offers a unique perspective on how price has developed. For example, a 5-minute chart may reveal details about intraday movements while a daily chart condenses those details into broader a broader structure and context. These perspectives may align or contradict one another, they can confirm or challenge your biases. The key takeaway is that charts and timeframes are tools to contextualize price, not definitive answers. Defining Your Trading Timeframe To navigate the apparent contradictions between timeframes, start by defining your trading timeframe. This is where you analyze price structure, execute trades and define holding periods. This will answer the opening question: measured moves and other tools should in preference align with your trading timeframe. In case one wants to consider context, for various reasons, then multiple timeframes can be utilized. These act as a complement, not replacement. Here’s how different timeframes can be used for context. Higher timeframe: Moving one timeframe up will compress the price data, providing a broader context, but at the expense of detail. Lower Timeframe: Moving one timeframe down will reveal intricate details, but can introduce excessive noise. The balance between these components should match your trading style. Without a clear and defined approach, there is a risk of confusion and contradictory biases. The Concept of "Moving in Twos" Another, more anecdotal observation in price movement is the idea of “moving in twos.” This concept suggests that price often moves in sequences of two swings: an impulse move, followed with a pullback, which then repeats. There tends to be some price disruption after this has played out, but does not always imply that trend movement must stop after two moves. However, measured moves tend to align more reliably with these sequences. While not a scientifically validated principle, this concept has been discussed by traders such as Al Brooks, Mack and more. It provides a practical heuristic for applying measured moves more consistently. Practical Application To apply these ideas, consider the following: Define your trading timeframe. Use it as the primary basis for your measured move projections. If needed, incorporate one higher or lower timeframe to balance context and detail. However, these additional perspectives should not overrule your primary focus. Think in terms of “moving in twos.” Use this concept to locate sequences. This post was about the relationship between timeframes and the fractal nature of price action. The focus is on our role as traders and how we decide to operate, rather than absolute answers. This might be clear to most, but if not, take some time to think about and define your trading style.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Trader-Shah
XRP updated price analysis & forecast: 3.1-3.3 is coming soon!!updated analysis on most recent price action indicates a strong buy sequence to 3.1-3.3 range to occur over this next wk, TO BE FOLLOWED BY the FINAL (aggressive) retracement to 1.5 -1.6 zone!!! **if we get any dips in price to 2.15-2.2 range BEFORE running to 3.1-3.3, it'll remain a buy opportunity imo until 3.1-3.3 is reached... I'm expecting the final discount window to occur by 12/12-14 dates...should witness the selloff/retracement in price to the 1.50 liquidity target level, which will be an amazing final chance to increase XRP position size after taking partial profits around 3.1-3.3 (my thoughts/trade plan)
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by DaveTradesLive
How Far Can Giants Like BTC Fall?? Possibly to $75K-$65KBefore BITSTAMP:BTCUSD can continue to make more All Time Highs, Structure must be created to sustain Higher Prices by testing Previous Levels! These levels consist of a Potential 20 - 30% decline or roughly GETTEX:29K - $21K drop in Price, impossible?? Two Reasons why it may not be: 1) South Korea's temporary Declaration of Martial Law seen Bitcoin Price take a 33% drop to FWB:65K before recovering to $95K. At times of tension or uncertainty, Bitcoin can still be affected regardless of how Bullish it may be! 2) After the November 2021 All Time Highs of $69K stood the goal mark for Price to beat, it took a 77% or $53K drop in Price in just a year. Now seeing as how Bitcoin formed a Bull Flag @ $73,835 after surpassing the November 2021 Highs and then Broke Bullish after the Trump Administration Presidential win, bias on Bitcoin remains overall Bullish and I believe Price just needs to make a slight Retracement to a Previous Level to find more Support, and that Support ultimately will be Businesses, Corporations and Countries Buying BITSTAMP:BTCUSD at Lower Prices! The RSI Divergence from Price's Highs and the waning of Bullish Volume suggests that Bulls are losing power and supports the idea of a Price Decline. *Be on the look out for Price to Pullback to Retest the Previous High of $73,835! *Fibonacci Retracement from Low @ $49,050 to High @ $99,860 lands our Previous Highs and Closes right around very favorable retracement levels as Potential Pullback levels as well!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Could This Bullish Break Take XLM to .95?!Let's break down what I see on COINBASE:XLMUSD on the 4Hr Chart! Based on the Rally from the Low @ .089 to the Multi-Year High @ .633, we can see Price fell into a Pennant Pattern, First making a Retracement to .425 or the 38.2% Fibonacci Level to find Support then found Support again at .505 or the 23.6% Fibonacci Level. Price has given us a Break of the Falling Resistance and upon the opening of the 4H & 1H Candle, Retested the Break of Falling Resistance. Now the Rally generated from the Low @ .229 to the High @ .633 was a ~ .40 or 175% increase. -If Bulls are able to hold Price above the .50 - .54 area, that .40 movement or potential 74% increase in Price from the Point of Break could lead us to the Potential Target of .95!
BITFINEX:XLMUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding TargetsMeasured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Trader-Shah
12
Elliot waves meets Fibonacci [Educational]Hello everyone, today I like to share how I use elliot waves combined with fibonacci to analyze the market. The standard rules are: - Wave 2 can now be lower then the start of wave 1 - Wave 3 should be the longest - Wave 4 should not breach the high of wave 1 But to have a more objective view there are also price targets to be reached within the different waves. It's a complex subject to show in one chart, so feel free to ask in the comment section if you have any questions.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kyrean
7
Spring '21 Resistance Halts DOGE, Retracement Coming??Here I have COINBASE:DOGEUSD on the Weekly Chart! Last week COINBASE:DOGEUSD jumped .15 cents or roughly 102% following the final voting count electing Donald Trump the next President of the USA. Along his campaign, we saw a very heavy Pro-Crypto agenda along with the on-boarding of Elon Musk, known for his interest in COINBASE:DOGEUSD possibly being given a position running a "Department Of Government Efficiency". Price on COINBASE:DOGEUSD after breaking the Aug - Oct '21 Highs has halted right at the Apr - May '21 Resistance. Now with all the speculations coming out about the imminent RISE of price, where is a good place to start investing before the boom?!?! Based off the High @ .4398 to the Low @ .0805, just before the Break of Structure, We are given some Fibonacci Levels that align with Potential Buying Opportunities if Price needs Support to continue Higher to the All Time High @ .7605. *Aug / Oct '21 Highs .3550 - .3025 23.6% - 38.2% *Mar / Apr '24 Highs .2290 - .2067 *Golden Zone .2178 61.8%
BINANCE:DOGEUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
EU Double Top Breaks Rising Support, 300+ Pip Sell Set-Up!Here I have FX:EURUSD on the Daily Chart! After last weeks Double Top was Confirmed, we see Price make a Bearish Break to and through the Rising Support created by the April, June and August Lows. -The Testing Candle alone generates ~500K in Selling Volume making the Rising Support weak enough to then Break Down to where price sits now. Applying the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Higher High @ 1.12138 to the Lower Low @ 1.08107, we can see a couple things: *23.6% Level sits right at the 200 EMA which is curving down and Price is now trading Below *38.2% Level sits right in the center of the Resistance Zone created from the March Highs *50% Level is at the Higher Low that was Broken to Confirm the Double Top I suspect that Price will need to Retest the Break of Rising Support before it can continue to Push Down! Potential Set-Up: Sell Entry 1.09058 (23.6%) - 1.09647 (38.2%) SL - 1.10112 (50%) TP - 1.0665
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
EUR-USDThis EUR/USD chart shows a recent decline after reaching a resistance level around 1.12137, forming a double-top pattern that suggests a trend reversal. The price has since dropped sharply and is approaching a significant "Order Blocker" zone between 1.07515 and 1.08022, where institutional buying may occur. If the price holds in this area, a potential bounce toward the 50% retracement level near 1.1000 could happen, indicating a bullish correction. However, if the price breaks below this zone, further bearish momentum could push it toward the next support at 1.0715. In summary, the market is currently bearish, but the reaction at the "Order Blocker" will determine whether a reversal or further decline is likely. Traders should monitor this key zone closely.
Long
by Dhareja
6