Gold - Wave 5, plus CCI and RSI confirmationAt the trough we had the RSI close to oversold, and we can say that CCI showed an oversold condition.
The CCI that measures the deviaton its smoothed with an 14-ma and adding the RSI above we have the market confirmation.
The candles formed three white soldiers that seems very strong.
We are in the beginning of wave 5 with the objective to go to a new high above wave 3.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Gold’s Got Drama: Is the Shine Fading? Let’s Dive In!🚨 Gold’s Got Drama: Is the Shine Fading? Let’s Dive In! 💰
1️⃣ Medium-Term Trendline: The OG Support!
This trendline has been holding like your favorite pair of jeans—reliable and never letting you down. But here’s the tea ☕: the price has slipped below it and is now knocking on its door like, “Hey, can I come back in?”
🔑 Key Point: If the door slams shut (aka, the trendline holds as resistance), we’re looking at some spicy bearish action. Keep your eyes on this!
2️⃣ Price Making Higher Highs, But…
🎵 "The higher you climb, the harder you fall…" Gold’s been flexing with those higher highs, but the RSI isn’t buying it. It’s like Gold is posting gym selfies 📸 while secretly skipping leg day. The disconnect is real.
❗ Warning: When price says "up" but RSI says "nah," the universe is screaming reversal incoming.
3️⃣ RSI Bearish Divergence: Red Flag Alert 🚩
RSI is the wingman who sees the danger before you do. It’s whispering, “Bro, this trend is running on fumes.” Lower highs on the RSI + higher highs on price = the perfect cocktail for a pullback. 🍹
📉 Translation: Momentum is fizzling, and buyers are running out of juice. The bears might just be warming up. 🐻
4️⃣ Price Retesting the Trendline: Playing Hard to Get 😏
After breaking up with the trendline, the price is back, asking for a second chance. Will the trendline say, “No thanks, I’ve moved on” and reject it as resistance? 👋
💡 Pro Tip: If the price gets rejected here, it’s basically like Gold saying, “I’m tired of this relationship. I’m heading lower.”
5️⃣ Sell Big if It Breaches Again: The Money Shot 💥
If the price slips below the trendline again, it’s game on for the bears. That’s your signal to bring out the big guns—just don’t forget your stop-loss armor. ⚔️
🚨 Action Plan:
Sell below the trendline breakdown.
Targets? Look for levels like $2,400 or lower.
Keep stops tight above the retested trendline. Remember: trading isn’t a free-for-all. 🎯
TL;DR: Gold’s at a Crossroads ⚖️
This chart is giving all the signals of a potential reversal. 1️⃣ RSI divergence says momentum is tired. 😴
2️⃣ Price retesting the trendline screams, “Decision time!” 🕒
3️⃣ A breakdown could mean a juicy shorting opportunity. 📉
💥 Final Thoughts: Don’t YOLO into this trade. Wait for confirmation. Be disciplined. And as always, let’s bag those profits like a boss. 💼💸
What’s your move? Are you riding the bear train or waiting for Gold to prove it’s still got its shine? Let me know, and let’s crush it! 🚀
Spring '21 Resistance Halts DOGE, Retracement Coming??Here I have COINBASE:DOGEUSD on the Weekly Chart!
Last week COINBASE:DOGEUSD jumped .15 cents or roughly 102% following the final voting count electing Donald Trump the next President of the USA. Along his campaign, we saw a very heavy Pro-Crypto agenda along with the on-boarding of Elon Musk, known for his interest in COINBASE:DOGEUSD possibly being given a position running a "Department Of Government Efficiency".
Price on COINBASE:DOGEUSD after breaking the Aug - Oct '21 Highs has halted right at the Apr - May '21 Resistance. Now with all the speculations coming out about the imminent RISE of price, where is a good place to start investing before the boom?!?!
Based off the High @ .4398 to the Low @ .0805, just before the Break of Structure, We are given some Fibonacci Levels that align with Potential Buying Opportunities if Price needs Support to continue Higher to the All Time High @ .7605.
*Aug / Oct '21 Highs
.3550 - .3025
23.6% - 38.2%
*Mar / Apr '24 Highs
.2290 - .2067
*Golden Zone
.2178
61.8%
BTC DOMINANCE After a Trump victory the markets are booming, a new BTC ATH pushed bitcoin dominance to new local highs of 60.6%. Now we've seen a decent retracement on the daily candle and BTC is still in price discovery. This indicates to me that we have an altcoin resurgence on our hands, returning confidence in crypto and the green light for crypto support by America is a very important to this current rally.
I could see BTC dominance dropping to 59.5% before any continuation (bottom of the trend channel) higher and that's not particularly from a BTC selloff although that is possible as a SFP, but more likely is just BTC staying where it is and altcoins making up some ground.
RSI has dropped out of the oversold zone with this daily candle, a cool off is eventually inevitable as long as price stays flat while RSI cools it's very bullish.
A lot of that altcoin move needs to be from ETH imo, with BTC @ ATH Ethereum is 72% away from ATH... A massive difference and one that should close up going into Q1 2025.
The standard process for a crypto bullmarket is:
BTC --> ETH --> LARGE CAPS
--> MID CAPS --> SMALL CAPS
So far we're clearly still in the BTC phase, keeping a close eye on the ETHBTC chart to see if the momentum shifts towards Ethereum but that doesn't seem likely until next year at the earliest.
Bullish Gartley + Bullish Pennant Break Combo - XLMHere I have COINBASE:XLMUSD on the Weekly Chart!
After the 2.5 Year long Bullish Gartley Harmonic Pattern had finished forming this July 2024, we see Price has been working into a tight Consolidation Pattern called the Pennant!
This Harmonic Pattern has been quite the Rollercoaster for longtime COINBASE:XLMUSD investors but with the Bullish Rally brought on this week, we see Price Breaking Above the Falling Resistance of this Pennant Pattern to the .10 area!
-If Price can find Support upon retesting the Break of Falling Resistance and stay above, we could see COINBASE:XLMUSD bask in .10 range and Push Higher!!
-RSI is now pushing Above 50 after the period of Consolidation stuck just underneath, indicating Bullish Interest is building
**If Price is unable to sustain these Higher Prices, this current Bullish Break could become False and we could see Price play back down into the Pennant Pattern!
With the Trump/Vance Campaign, we heard a lot of plans and potential being put towards the Cryptocurrency Market and with the win of the Presidency, we could start to see more Interest in this financial area.
Further updates will be on Daily Chart!
Dogecoin Primed For Liftoff?! Here I have COINBASE:DOGEUSD on Daily & 1Hr Chart!
A lot of Bullish signs are popping up on all Time-Frames for $DOGEUSD! Let's lay it out:
Daily Chart-
*Price made its Lowest Low @ .0805
*Price has created a Bullish Divergence on the RSI when price was able to make a Higher High @ .1321, disrupting the Downtrend Pattern.
*Fib Retracement Tool from the Lowest Low to Higher High places the Golden Ratio Zone @ ( .1033 - .1002 ) where Price has already Retraced to and is showing Exhaustion from the Bears!
1Hr Chart-
*Zooming into the Golden Ratio Zone, we see Price is exhibiting signs of a Bullish Wedge, potentially in the Reversal Variation!
*Lower Lows on Price creating Bullish Divergence with Higher Lows on RSI
I suspect we will see Price give us a Bullish Break to this Wedge and continue creating Higher Highs/Higher Lows continuing the Uptrend which will then contend with the Resistance Levels:
( .1355 - .1440 )
( .1700 - .1800 )
( .1990 - .2200 )
**If Price gives us a Bearish Break to the Wedge, Be Vigilant to False Breaks testing the .09 cent Support Level & Rising Support
Double Bottom with Billions of Metric Tons of Lithium - SLIHere I have AMEX:SLI on the Daily Chart!
Technical -
A Double Bottom Reversal Pattern has formed and with the Bullish Rally started from the ~1,800% increase in the Estimate to Reported Results for Earnings and Revenue on Sept. 24th, we see Price Breaking our Confirmation of Pattern @ 1.98!
This weeks Price Action has created a Volume Imbalance between ( 1.91 - 2.03 ) that Price may choose to Fill before it pushes Higher!
Now Price is struggling with the Resistance of Previous High @ ( 2.28 - 2.38 )
-If this rise can be sustained in becoming a New Higher High than our Confirmation of Pattern, we can expect Price to Retest this Break of Confirmation to find Support!
*If the Retest of the Break is successful, we can then suspect Price to find Resistance again at Previous Highs @ ( 3.59 - 3.89 )
Indicators:
- Golden Cross with 200 EMA and Dynamic S&R
- RSI is Above 50
- Strong Bullish presence in Volume leading to Confirmation of Pattern
Fundamental -
Under all this utter devastation that Hurricane Helene and Milton have done to North Carolina and Florida and now with the wildfires ravaging Wyoming, these disasters have uncovered massive Rare Earth Elements and Metal Deposits containing around Billions of Metric Tons of essential components needed to power our shift forward from the Industrial Age to what feels like the Digital Age.
-Adding potential future mining sites to the already known deposits in Nevada, Pennsylvania and California.
EV and other technology advancements will come soon now with these essential minerals and metals possibly on the Brink of Extraction!
LAC & GM Team Up for Thacker Pass! Here I have NYSE:LAC on the Daily Chart!
NYSE:GM plans to contribute $625 Million and seeks to claim 38% of the Joint Venture!
This remarkable announcement this week seen the Price of NYSE:LAC hit 4-Month Highs after Breaking Above the Falling Resistance that was keeping it down.
The rally seems to be tamed by the Resistance Level and Low that was created in February but is now testing the Break of Falling Resistance for potential Support to keep pushing Price Higher!
If Price can Push through this area, we could see Price make a move for the Gap @ ( 4.9 - 6.37 ) then find Strong Resistane @ ( 6.83 - 7.65 )
Indicators:
- Price will need to test the 200 EMA in $4 range
- RSI is Above 50 (Bullish)
- Strong Bullish Volume with Breaking Candle suggests Valid Break
- BBTrend Printing Green Bars
Approaching Key Levels with Potential Deep Correction Ahead!OANDA:XAUUSD
Current Price: 2737.445
2H Chart
Reason for Correction:
1H - Monthly: Overbought Zone (Deeper Correction Possible)
As indicated on the chart, the price is in an uptrend within an ascending channel on the Daily chart, and a similar trend is observed on the 2H chart, where an additional ascending channel is also forming.
Moreover, Gold is currently in the overbought zone across multiple timeframes, from 1H to the Monthly chart.
Before a potential correction, the price may rise to the overbought zone at 2753.906 or even the extreme overbought zone at 2773.699. However, it is not necessary for the price to reach these levels, as a correction could begin sooner.
A potential correction could target 2700, a significant psychological level, and extend further to 2685. It’s also possible for a deeper correction to occur, which will be addressed in a subsequent analysis.
Key Levels:
• 2753.90
• 2773.70
• 2700.00
• 2685.44
Happy trading!
EU Double Top Breaks Rising Support, 300+ Pip Sell Set-Up!Here I have FX:EURUSD on the Daily Chart!
After last weeks Double Top was Confirmed, we see Price make a Bearish Break to and through the Rising Support created by the April, June and August Lows.
-The Testing Candle alone generates ~500K in Selling Volume making the Rising Support weak enough to then Break Down to where price sits now.
Applying the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Higher High @ 1.12138 to the Lower Low @ 1.08107, we can see a couple things:
*23.6% Level sits right at the 200 EMA which is curving down and Price is now trading Below
*38.2% Level sits right in the center of the Resistance Zone created from the March Highs
*50% Level is at the Higher Low that was Broken to Confirm the Double Top
I suspect that Price will need to Retest the Break of Rising Support before it can continue to Push Down!
Potential Set-Up: Sell Entry
1.09058 (23.6%) - 1.09647 (38.2%)
SL - 1.10112 (50%)
TP - 1.0665
Continuing the Moon Phase Vs Nifty chart further. Yesterday in the message we understood how The dark circle resonates with the dates of no moon day and Grey circle indicates the day when we saw a full moon. Invariably in most of the no moon days as can be seen in the chart index is at the peak near no moon day. Then there is a fall seen in Nifty. Recovery starts in few days of Full moon day and then again Nifty makes a peak near no moon day. We were trying to contemplate if it is a coincidence. Now we saw a small turnaround today. We do not know if this will hold and if the recovery will start from here and now but we will juxtapose Moon Phases Vs Nifty chart with our Mother, Father and Small Child theory, RSI and Bollinger bands and see what levels we get for support and resistances further.
RSI is currently on daily chart is at 41.27 having taken support near 37 zone. This seems to be a good support zone for RSI as it as bounced from there and there about several times. Nifty took baby steps to recovery on Friday as Full Moon is done. Lowest RSI on daily chart was around 32 that was exactly one year back so we can expect either of these two levels to hold fort.
Father line support is near 23404. Bollinger band shows a support zone near 24373 range in case Nifty takes a dip from here. Mother line resistance is near 25026 and Bollinger Median resistance is near 25372. Resistance for nifty based on Bollinger band top seems to be at 26372.
Mother, Father and Small Child theory is explained in my book Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version. Do read it as many reviewers on Amazon consider it as a Hand book to equity investment.
In this way we have tried to deduce support and resistance levels of Nifty with the help of Mother, Father and Small Child theory, Bollinger band, RSI. We tried to predict the turnaround phases for Nifty’s upward and downward runs by juxtapositioning it with phases of Moon. To a normal eye all this looks a little complicated and difficult but when you dissect it and spend time with the chart you will be able to deconstruct it bit by bit, frame by frame and level by level.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term.
As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected.
While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change.
We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future.
Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
USOIL Rallies, Tensions Rise, Could Price Soar More??Here I have TVC:USOIL on the Daily Chart!
Starting with Technical, we can see Price has formed a Double Bottom at a Support Area that's kept Price afloat for quite some years now, but was last visited and acted as Support for Price back in the Spring of 2023!
Price has Broke the Confirmation of Pattern @ $72.36 and is now Breaking the Local Falling Resistance from prior July & August 2024 Highs. Regardless, Price Action has Broken Structure and created Higher Highs and Lows, confirming Uptrend, starting with the Higher Low of the Double Bottom on Oct. 1!
- Currently we want to see this Bullish Rally continue Breaking Above the Falling Resistance and staying above the ( $71 - $72 ) Range that Price has been interacting with Signaling Bulls in fact are in control, then for a Test of the Break of Confirmation of Pattern and Test of the Break of Local Falling Resistance!
* Once successful, we will see Price rise to the next Falling Resistance created from the Highs of Sept. 2023 & Apr. 2024!
- Massive Bullish Volume enters on the 2nd Low of the Double Bottom on Oct. 1
- Price on RSI is Above 50 with the Break of the Confirmation of Pattern
Now Fundamental, the biggest factor that seems to be at play for TVC:USOIL is all the Geo-political confrontation stirring up. Not only is the Russia/Ukraine war still ongoing, the tensions between Israel/Iran are seeing massive implications across the board!
- Oct. 1 being the beginning of the Iran missile attacks on Israel www.tradingview.com
- Now worries arise that Iran's Oil Facilities may be in danger as a possible Retaliatory Israeli Strike Target! With Iran eyeing Israel's Energy Infrastructure, Power Plants, Refineries and Gas Fields!
www.tradingview.com
* Oct. 7th is the Year Anniversary to the Israel/Hamas conflict and suspicions arise that we could be looking at things intensifying further!
Weekly SOLANA Chart indicating BULLRUN soon!
Fellow Solana Investors, Please comment your thoughts on my analysis
I've been watching the Solana price and I'm noticing that on the Weekly chart, SOL is showing upcoming bullish confluence between the RSI/RSI-MA14 and the MACD crossing the Signal Line (above the histogram - which is bullish). Also, the price actions of Solana seems to follow previous patterns of past bullish and bearish runs of the market over the last year. The current price action and indicators appear to show a possible break of the top resistance trendline. Which, to me would indicates an upcoming bullrun, expesially if it breaks that top trendline which could result in a new leg up to a new ATH (All Time High) for Solana.
I don't follow Bitcoin as much, but bitcoin is about to breaks it's own top trendline, since solana follows footsteps with BTC price action pretty well.
Use of Various Technical indicators. (Educational Post)Nifty again after making a new high ended in negative today. Main reason for nifty ending in negative can be attributed to channel top resistance. RSI (Relative strength Index) reached over heated zone and peaked above 80 showing the market was overheated, this was the second reason of Nifty ended in red of Friday after a fantastic weak. RSI of monthly and weekly and daily candles also shows that Nifty is in the overbought zone. This can continue for a while or Nifty can dive next week or in the coming time searching for it's supports for the purpose of correction or consolidation. On hourly chart as seen above RSI Peak is near 81 with supports near 57 and 47 range. Currently the RSI is at 64.67.
Bollinger Band is also suggesting temporary market peak near 26336 and strong support near 26092 and 25866.
MACD is also signaling towards consolidation and correction as the coveted blue line seen in the chart is dipping below red line. Histograms sine wave is going towards negative zone with some strength in it's stride.
50 hours EMA or the mother line is near 25909 and 200 hours EMA or the father line is near 25345.
Parallel channel indicates top near 26336. Mid channel support near 25866 and channel bottom support is near 25595.
Trend line support is near 26148 and trend top seems to be near 26437.
Supports and resistances drawn based on recent peaks and valleys are as under:
Supports at: 26148, 26037, 25866 and 25595.
Resistances at: 26277 (All time high resistance)
In the above chart and data we have used the combination of Supports and Resistances, Trend lines, EMA, MACD, RSI, Parallel Channel, Bollinger Bands. You must have seen that various Technical indicators many a times indicate same or similar levels. Thus instead of trying to master many indicators, if you can focus on a few and master them, you will be more often correct. As Bruce Lee has famously said and I quote him, "I am not afraid of someone who knows 10000 kicks, I am afraid of the one who has practised 1 kick 10,000 times."
It is also said in Sanskrit 'Sarva Deva Namaskaram, Keshavam Prati gacchati'. Pray to any of the divine forces but they ultimately end up at the feet of the supreme God head. Nasiruddin Shah had also said in a movie (Kabhi Haan Kabhi Na) "Idhar se jao, udhar se jao, ultimately sab rasta God ke pass jata hai." Deducing from it many indicators often yield same results. Master 2 or 3 of them and they will make you a great analyst.
Conclusion: Learn, unlearn, relearn and master a few indicators rather than trying to know many indicators. They will help you create generational wealth. To know more about these indicators and how to use them and to understand Techno-Funda investment, read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback or Kindle version.
The information regarding Nifty in this article is for the purpose of education and to show how various indicators often give same or similar result.
To know more about when to book profit? Where to place a stop loss or what is trailing stop loss you are recommended to read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation which is available on Amazon in paperback or kindle version. You can also comment below or send a message to us.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Lucid Group Trip Down to Lower $3's Before Uplift?! - LCIDHere I have Lucid Group, Inc - LCID on the Weekly Chart!
First, Technical. We see Price rock bottoms to its Lowest @ $2.29 on April 22 2024 and just after the Negative Earnings and Revenue report on May 6th 2024, Price creates an Equal High @ $3.35 followed by a Violation of Structure giving us a Higher Low @ $2.48 finding Support in the $2.50 Area to then make a Higher High @ $4.32!
Turning this once looking Downtrend to an Uptrend.
Prices Higher Highs and Lows are now being halted at the $4.20 - $4.40 Range where I suspect Price will need to find more Support before it can continue on to what I believe will be its next Target being the Next Swing High @ $5.31!
*Divergence in the Highs of Price relative to the Highs on RSI show Bearish Signs
The Bullish Rally in Price on August 19th left open quite a Gap to Fill from $3.83 - $3.30 and If Price is willing to fill it, the $3.46 - $3.13 Area looks very Valuable being there's:
1) - Equal High @ $3.35 being Potential Support
2) - Golden Fibonacci Zone @ $3.34 (55.9%) - $3.22 (61.8%)
(Based from HL @ $2.48 to HH @ $4.43)
3) - RSI after Breaking EQH, starts Trading Above 50
4) BBTrend Printing Smaller, Dark, Red Bars
All leading to Bullish Markers!
Now, Fundamentals. Lucid Group announced that it is set to launch not only 3 new affordable EV's but that it also plans to unveil the Gravity SUV later in the year "highlighting the company's advanced technology and mileage range on electric vehicles." In competition with Tesla's long reign.
www.tradingview.com
The "Fastest Armored Car On The Planet" is sparking investor interest with Lucid Air Sapphire is giving serious challenges to Tesla!
www.tradingview.com
The past 2 Earnings & Revenue Reports have both been Disappointing for the company but the most recent Report on August 5th compared to May 6th tell a slightly different story ..
May - Revenue Estimate (173.544M) / Reported (172.2M) = -844.404k
Aug.- Revenue Estimate (190.303M) / Reported (200.6M) = +10.279M
*Next Earnings and Revenue - November 5th 2024
LCID will be worth keeping a watch on .. Stay Tuned!!
Potential Harmonic Bearish Butterfly Could Push QQQ to $525+Here I have Invesco Trust NASDAQ:QQQ on the Daily Chart!
Invesco Trust NASDAQ:QQQ follows the NASDAQ 100 Index which is Tech-Industry Heavy.
Price currently is struggling at ( $485 - $486 ), the 78.6% Fibonacci Level responsible for giving us our B point in what appears to be a potential Bearish Harmonic Butterfly Pattern!
Harmonic Butterfly
X - B = .786
A - C = .382 - .886
B - D = 1.618 - 2.24
X - D = 1.272 - 1.618
If Price is able to break through this Level, then by the Harmonic Butterfly Parameters, we could see the CD Leg extend to the 1.272 - 1.618 Fibonacci Levels @ ( $525.30 - $553! )
Fundamentals:
* Feds have already began their Easing Cycle with the more then expected aggressive 50 bps cut to Interest Rates. With more cuts already planned in the foreseeable future, this will begin to help the economy bounce back!
*Thursday, Sept. 26th: Final GDP, Unemployment Claims & Powell Speaking
Friday, Sept. 27th: Core PCE Index
Indicators:
- Price is trading Above the 200 EMA
- RSI Above 50
- Bullish Volume Building