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Bitcoin Shorts - FINALLY!If I am reading this correctly this is the first time since $3,200 that the Bitcoin Shorts chart is actually going in the OPPOSITE direction as the price of Bitcoin. It did not start doing this until AFTER breaking $10K. Before $10K, the short positions would increase as the price of Bitcoin increased. It has been doing this since about $3,200. Anybody following my posts already knew I've been watching this and found it to be very alarming. It just doesn't make sense that people would continue to short into a parabolic rise, but they did. Like I said if I am readying this right they can either cover or get liquidated. Please tell the last bear out of the cave to turn of the lights. I'll be waiting out front. BBS out!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
Another Bitcoin Cup and Handle? Target over $10KHello my fellow Bitcoinistas! This morning was very interesting. The Bears keep shorting and Bitcoin keeps moving higher. It doesn't make sense but it is what it is I suppose. I noticed another pattern that may be of interest if it plays out. I see another large Cup and Handle pattern that looks like it has already broken North. If so, the minimum near term target is just over $10K. I'm sure the Bears will keep shorting it until they finally get a decent pull back in price or until they blow up their accounts whichever comes first. Happy Hunting! BBS Out!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
The TRUE way the BTC market works and how to be more successfulNOTE: most important point is C.) a-lot of other stuff may or may not be trivial stuff you personally know so if nothing else read C.) So I figured I would take the time to educate the few people that may see and read this. Because many, many people need it. Almost every person out there trading BTC has some theory and conspiracy that they believe and actually make decisions based on with zero clue what they are talking about. FACT 1.) The price is almost 100% dictated by the RSI. Im not gonna get deep into this because their are infinite RSI's not that you need to watch them all but to truly learn whats going on and where the price is going you have to have an extremely high IQ, PATIENCE and love math and problem solving. No single time frame will tell you much, and regardless of what a lot of people claim all time frames are important and all fit together like a puzzle. If you look at just the 1 minute rsi you will never inow whats going on because it can go up or down while between 70 and 30 endlessly but even worse is the fact that when it hits 70 or 30 it tells you nothing because the lower the timeframe is the more forgiving the formula is in terms of allowing it to go over or under for periods of time. I think of it like this, every time frame that goes over or under is given penalty points based on the timeframe and the amount it is over or under. 1min timeframe is almost pointless but the 3min, then 5, then 15, etc etc will all become over or under the longer that the price keeps going up. So as those timeframes join in their points get added to the penalty total. Once the penalty total gets to a certain point its done, the bots controlling everything will slam the price and rsi down or up out of the penalty zone. THE TRUTH ABOUT THE SHORT/LONG "SQUEEZE" These "SQUEEZES" have several reasons for happening. A.) it shortens the time to lower or raise the longer time frames RSI considerably. These are the timeframes that cause days to months of sideways boringness (depending on the time frame, the larger it is the longer it takes to reset it obviously). Its literally what the BEAR season is. It is the 7 day time frame finally getting so high that a huge number of large up and downs need to happen to quicken the time to bring the rsi from 91 down to 30 which is when the bear market ends and it still takes months and months of sideways even after all the $1000-$5000 swings from Jan-May 2018. Note: A $200-$300 squeeze can also reset the shorter timeframe like the hour from 90 rsi to 50 instantly thus allowing the rally to continue B.) A lot of bad traders have high leverage positions and positions with no stops which make it free money for the whales to take C.) ***MOST IMPORTANT REASON*** If you ever thought about it and how you would manipulate the market if u had hundreds of millions of dollars you would quickly realize that you cant manipulate the market from BITMEX like 99% of people seem to believe happens. If you buy hundreds of millions of contracts on BITMEX your gonna be the one raising the price and be paying more and more all the way up. But even worse is when you want to unload the long your gonna cause the price to drop more and more. Getting rid of your entire position in profit would be difficult enough and you certainly couldn't load a short on top of that. So how does it really work? (I used todays "short squeeze before the plunge as the example in the chart" Note: i used the 1 hour chart, now as you go down in time frames the amount the rsi is over the 70% mark obviously is higher and higher and on the 2 hour time frame it hits exactly 70%. Ok so what really happens is the whales program their bots buy bitcoin on the mark exchanges to a set goal today being $9100 and they program their bitmex bots to set limit orders of 500,000 - 5,000,000 to short from $9050 - $9100 which is why you'll see short orders go from 3 million quickly to a few hundred thousand as you watch endless people market buy orders at it and suddenly soon as it gets low 300,000 or less it will go right up to 1-5mil and seconds later sell down to a few hundred thousand and new orders replenish over and over. So its not obvious to you that your selling tens of millions to a wall. Once their shorts are completely filled on bitmex they sell blocks of btc that they just bough on the exchanges to raise the price to cause the price to drop back down and keep doing that down to whatever price they want. Then people begin panic selling and the rsi gets to low on a bunch of timeframes like it did at $7900 and the whales bots unload whatever portion of those shorts they just got that is needed to push the price up to where the rsi is at 30. So in the end everyone threw hundreds of millions of shorts at them, paid the fees for them and paid them a portion of fees and then they dropped the price $1000 to be left holding a huge winning position. Why did they do this today? Simple the weekly rsi is way too high to continue a bull run for 2 years lol its at like 80. They will now hold these shorts for however long it takes to reset the weekly rsi to an acceptable number. What number who knows, anything under 70 but i imagine 40-55. They will get paid funding the entire time by all the saps that hold longs this next few weeks. The price will go up and down as usual as they liquidate new shorters but it will be trending down weekly. Until some point when the RSI on weekly chart is low enough which is when they will do what they did today in reverse. (Sell on exchanges to force price down on bitmex where they have limit orders you throw money at so they close their shorts from $9100 and open longs to go up). This will likely happen several times to close all the shorts they have accumulated over the last month and open all new long positions. But the point is until YOU get smart enough to not throw orders hopelessly whn you should know better this will keep happening. You literally don't even have to look at the rsi graphs to know when you should be closing not opening. When that point comes that we hit a wall and bounce $50-$100 like $9020-$9080 to $9020 you should know you likely just where part of feeding orders to the people that are about to make the market go the other way $1000+ Always have a minimum 2 stops setup for every position. The first thing i do even before opening my position sometimes is set 2 generic JUST IN CASE stops at $40 away from the liquidation price. So if its a long with a liquid at $8200 then i will setup a stop based on mark price at $8240 and a stop based on last price at $8240. Most always ill setup a different stop way closer to my open soon after but i will change my stoo and strategy many times. Those 2 safety stops never have reason to change and will still be there even if i screw up by removing my real stop that i set and the new stop i set somehow dosent get accepted and i dont notice or i forget to set the new one because something big happens after i cancel the first ine etc. The reason for 2 stops is simple. Bitmex liquidates you based on the mark price so if the price on bitstamp goes to $8200 and bitmex price is $8400 and you only had a stop set at $8240 based on last BITMEX price then you just got liquidated at $8400 and paid Bitmex a ton of money. For the record the higher your leverage the more important a stop is. At 50x when you get liquidated your position sells for enough to where you would still get half your money back but Bitmex just takes it instead. So why set a stop based on Last when the liquidation is based on the mark price? Because of the opposite. Bitmex price hits $8200 and mark price is at $8400 and you have one stop at $8240 based on mark price. By time the mark price hits $8240 bitmex price is at $8040 so your stop triggers and sells at $8040 and your money just all goes into liquidation anyhow because you sold for below the liquidation price. So that is why there should always be 2 emergency stops. Most people just use a stop based on last which is fine as long as your stop is always far away from your liquidation i mean $200+ away minimum. But if its not you should always have a default safety mark stop at +-$40 of liquid and you can move your last price stop wherever you want based on where u would want it to stop.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Skimanner
5
2019 YTD feedbackHello, I am going to look at my history that is on trading view for the past 4 months, and estimate what is possible and what is not (last third of the post is mainly just me brainstorming and rambling), and I am making this public, some people might be curious and get the inspiration to do the same. Risk Reward is usually 1.5 Bitcoin not entered yet, ALL OF MY 3 STRATEGIES apply. RR ~1.5+ A bunch of market analysis and posting about Tether (Bitcoin related). S&P short, still same trade I baghold for a while, moved my SL up because I entered too early & was too tight anyway. EURJPY sold at the very top at resistance with EURUSD downtrend channel, RR 1.75. Easy WIN. A bunch of education & generic posts & potential future trades. Updates about Bitcoin short. Bitcoin long the bull trap expected a Tether pump. Easy win but did not take the trade because was already short and funding decimated what little I had on mex so was not able to flip sides (fast enough). Bitcoin short TL with a reward to risk of 4. Probably reks me but RR is so big. LOSE. AUDJPY on H1 24 March buy support. WIN. Bitcoin buy pullback in uptrend, NO FILL. GBPUSD in an uptrend channel, buy at support. WIN. GBPJPY buy at support. Entered too early, selling slowed then it bounced on my SL. A mistake. LOSE. USDCHF same mistake. Bought the falling knife AND entered early and it fell much lower. LOSE. CAC40 best trade in my life I still have happy dreams about it. RR 1.5 to 2 as always. WIN. AUDUSD sell at resistance. NO FILL. EURUSD sold, it reversed at my SL. Didn't have much to work with, what was my count? Probably should not have touched it and why did I post this? LOSE. Some stock & bitcoin posts but not trade ideas, just generic/building abias. USDNOK buy support. LOSE. USDTRY. Did not want to get involved with something I did not fully understand yet. Missed a win. AUDCAD short it to the ground! Easiest WIN in my life ggeznobs. More generic bla bla. Soybean futures did not want to get involved + high spreads + no strategy for this. Called the top to the day and missed a win. EURSEK sold the very top, get on my level ggez. WIN. Gold short resistance & TL. Works most of the time. Easy WIN. Repeating myself about Bitcoin like I'm 70 years old. Was just bored tbh. And paid shills harassing me telling me to be silent makes me want to post more. I do not cooperate with terrorists. Dow Jones short. Barely fits my rules. LOSE. AUDUSD buy. Nothing special about it. Bottomed after I got stopped damn. LOSE. Copper sell at resistance the mini double top. RR of 3 but I exagerated here and got out at 2. WIN. 8 WINS. 7 LOSE. And a few miss out. H1: (always targets > half an ATR) 4 wins (EURJPY AUDJPY GBPUSD AUDCAD) 5 losses (GBPJPY USDCHF EURUSD USDNOK AUDUSD). H4: 4 wins (CAC40 EURSEK GOLD COPPER) 2 losses (BTC DJI) I would need much more stats. I feel H1 is not that bad if I am picky. 45% winrate would be barely enough to make it especially I didn't really count fees. Catching falling knives was just bad. I need more to draw conclusions. With stats like this if they were consistently like this... (that's a big if) Let's assume SPX will be a loser, and I can get 50% winrate. 3 trades a week 6 months 76 trades 38 wins 38 lose Make 3% lose 2% (1.03^36) * (0.98^36) = 1.4 Up 40% in 6 months. Up 100% in 1 year, rounded up. Double up. Up 300% in 2 years. Money doubled twice. Up 3,200 % in 5 years. Up 100,000% in 10 years compounding is overpowered (equal to buying Bitcoin at $5000 and selling at 5 million in 10 years ye that's going to happen) These losses on Bitcoin are really unforgivable and I should rethink my strategy entirely. I really wish crypto bulls could teach me. They'll be billionaires in a few years right? Let's see where I am and where they are in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years :) What if, pure speculation, I was to only "swing trade" would have 4 trades a month, 66% winrate, risk 2 to make 3? After 1 year... 16 losers 32 winners. (1.03^32) * (0.98^16) = 1.86, nearly same result. But with 4 a month. Is 66% winrate possible with superior mental powas? With such a winrate RoR is non existant, what about 36 trades a year (3 a month) & risk 4% to make 6%. (1.06^24)*(0.96^12) = 2.48. +148%. Oh my. 880,000% after 10 years. Winrate probably smaller but looking at lots of market its probably possible to cumulate positions, like 3 uncorrelated at any given time is possible? I think 50% to 300% a year is possible depending on luck and risk and how much time is spent in front of the screen looking for opportunities (and filtering the mediocre ones). I think it's possible to have both a high winrate and reward:risk (like 60% and 2), but then you get those not very often. Anyway, my 2019 posts represent my trading results are the same more or less. 2019 going well. Need to do this every quarter. Won't post next one publicly. I have 3 strategies, 1 is a pullback join the trend strategy 1 is a momentum countertrend strategy and 1 is a no trend strategy. All focus on wave (C). + I cannot use more strategy it becomes too much it's just not possible. I must stick to this theme I understand and know how to trade. On paper I could do more but pratically there is no way. Maybe with 5 more years experience... + I don't manage to find more opportunities than a few, especially uncorrelated. + Zooming in more takes alot of time and they say it's easier to predict the movements on the short term, but below half an ATR... it just gets noisy and messy. + I am not able to improve the winrate and risk reward. Might be able to avoid a few bad trades & improve RR a bit. Or not. Probably not. All that is left... being patient... and if I want more, raising risk. Literally impossible to do more to me. Keep my eyes open for the rare opportunity. Next bubble. Let's go. Or building a time machine. Saving up, like eating for 15 euros a day rather than 25 saves 300 a month, putting 500 aside every month, helps as much as making big returns and accelerates growth so much. I want to check a last one. Assuming 1.5 RR, 50% winrate. 3 trades a week so 156 in a year. With an expendable amount on a negative balance protection broker. Risk 10% a trade (actually possible to risk that much but not more leverage is not unlimited 20*0.5% on Forex = 10%) Risking 10% a trade the risk of ruin (85% loss) is 0.8%. (1.15^78) * (0.9^78) = 14,6. Going to beat the system with negative balance protection. 50% winrate 3 trades a week 1.5 RR is this unrealistic? During the crypto bubble peak/euphoria anyone could do this & better, easy. But that's over. What returns do people in the 9% typically make? I think 50% winrate 1.5 RR is typical. With absolute max 0 care risk the returns are 1500%. Also we know from analysis of hundreds of thousands of accounts that active day traders taking plenty of trades are almost all losing, 99% are, and the ones that win barely make anything. Going against supercomputers and math phd at renaissance with their little $1000 PC haha who would have thought? So that's useless. It does not make more. Maybe with the DAX & DJI (very low spreads) it is possible to squeeze just a little bit more. Realistically the most people make on myfxbook etc are 200% a year. Even in competitions with their own real money in 3 months the winners are making 80-200% and they are risking more than usual to win right? Once we get experienced & know how to understand the price action & willing to spend the time analysing markets etc I guess it is capped. Cannot improve more, just not possible the possibilities are not there. If I sell signals on a copy trading broker by the time I even get people to follow I lose my edge and it's all over. Not good in the long term. Damn I wish I was a VIP signals trading educator making 10,000% a quarter :/
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
2
ETHBTC will down so severely in the long term.Cannot guarantee ETHUSD's price But certainly ETHBTC will get downtrend to lose its dominance so severely in the long term view. 1. There came to us several competitors like BNB and XTZ and so on. They will get its own dominance till ETH 2.0 launches completely, which it satisfies crowd. 2. Furthermore, BTC seems to want to get his lost dominance again through my Technical Analysis. 3. If it comes true, we can see rather surprising drop in the alt market when it comes to ALTBTC pair market.. 4. There many ETH which is held by many altcoin developes, who will sell more ETH dumped to get fiat or BTC.
Short
by KLYP_Investment
3
BTC RSI WEEKLY. Consistent 5 years chart.See history of BTC using BLX charts. Whenever it gets near the 55-57 RSI on weekly it dumps hardcore in bearmarket. You can clearly see it is being consistent after 5 year. Notice it always dumped first when it got near the RSI 55-57 before it tried to rally and end the bearmarket. dont long this RSI. if your hand is itching to buy just wait for retrace then gamble your money. but longing RSI with massive resistance is just stupid. remember ladies, don't long resistance and don't short support.
BNC:BLXShort
by EzCLAP
Tron Train to Rekt CityI'm on a highway to hell With so much positive action going on in the space right now, it's hard to stay in any TRX position with the chart looking this ugly. Volume is anemic and the Jan push up was spurred by BTT hype. There aren't alot of tricks left up Justin Sun's sleeve and social media really destroyed him for screwing up a recent Twitter giveaway. The charts don't inspire confidence, neither does public sentiment. The interior of my bands is the 20 ema and TRX consistently resides below that. And by consistently I mean ~200 days since Jan 18, 2018. It lives there. It has had two different periods of trading below the 20 ema for >30 days, and the first period was followed by more lows, and more trading below the 20 ema. Those periods are marked by the info indicators on the chart. Currently the boll bands are opening up like a rattle snakes mouth injecting consecutive daily red candles that extend below the lower bands. This type of action kicked off the most recent downturn in Feb 19. If it blows through 500 sats, which I think it will, it has very flimsy support at 396 sats. If people are checking their blockfolio, and majors are posting moon candles everywhere, they're going to hate seeing Tron bleed out in their app. Their going to bail, and it will end up in a very critical zone marked in blue. Personally I think the Tron, um, supporters will step in and guard that zone pretty well. 300 sats will probably bring a QE styled defense or we'll see a really odd string of announcements around then. If 220 sats fails, it's game over. Full disclosure in that I held a position in Tron until I dove into this chart tonight. On Binance right now, 1000 tron will net you roughly 1.3 BNB. I'll check back in 6 months and see how this played out.
Short
by LoDoCrypto
Place your bets gentlemen! Which way will it go?I think if you look at this chart on its own... Keep in mind this is the 1 hr chart. It looks about as neutral as neutral can be. Could go up as easy as it could go down. At a glance I would say this is going to drop to 22 rather then go to 36. But who cares right. We have held since 200 so FUCK IT!.... NO. I'm done. I'm not loosing another dollar. STOP LOOK AT THE DAILY! ITS OVER. GET OUT. I have buy orders at $4.09 and 13.25 on LTC. If you have profit. Take it and WAIT a few months. LOOK AT ALL THE SELL ORDERS RIGHT THIS SECOND ON COINBASE. 6322LTC ON THE ASK! NO JOKE. You might see this a few hours later but right now there is a 6322 sell order at the current price on LTC and its been there for a while. Live to fight another day. FFS that was a huge loss! OVER20 club I guess. Please like and subscribe :)
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by Noxtreme
1
Putting the 'Poor' back in Standard & PoorThis is a nice case study in the usefulness of mating momentum indicators (if you could call averaging out candlesticks a la 'Heiken-Ashi' an indicator...). 'Heiken-Ashi' translates to 'average bar' in Japanese, and aside from being aesthetic as hell they're also a great way to cut out noise. Since the Heiken-Ashi candles are formed from an average of the open, high, low, and close of the prior candle they are able to reliably display the general "temperment" so to speak of the local price action. The formula is simple: Wicks up top with a clean bottom is bullish, vice versa for bearish, and anything with a wick on both ends shows indecision. In combination with Bollinger Bands one can not only identify the markets mood, but also its volatility and relative mobility within the bands. Thicc BB means high volatility, and in addition to slim BB being the inverse; it often indicates a pending move (especially on lower timeframes). As well, the two 'channels' in the BB and their respective boundaries provide targets for entries as well as being indicative of the trend. Using the SPX as an example two things readily appear: 1.) A bear trend has been established 2.) It's got a few hundred more points of 'room' to fall before its hits anything significant in the BB structure, which it historically bumps into bull or bear....but especially bear. That's about it, technical analysis can be that simple. The difficulty in trading is often the problem solving involved in risk management, not technical analysis. That being said, none of this is advice of any sort; I don't even know how to read: Trade responsibly.
SP:SPXEducation
by OhAndArr
BITCOIN BREAKDOWN CONFIRMEDWe broke the yearly low as well as the November low after breaking the yearly support of 6k. If you missed the short, there will be another chance at the retest of the now support turned resistance. My gameplan is short the resistance with targets at lower-mid 4ks for the short term and play bounces back to resistance and if we break lower the mid 2ks as final targets. I will change my plan if we trade above and close above 6350. Anything under that will be safe for shorts. Remember people, it isn't about being RIGHT, it is about making MONEY. Trade safe!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by spookytown