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ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX - Birds Eye View - Wave 3 In ProgressThis chart is very interesting for a few reasons. It basically says that real estate topped in 2007 and has never recovered. Every trick in the book has been thrown at the property market in Australia in an effort to prevent it from collapsing, I would say this is also happening in other countries. Blue Wave 1 started in 2007 and ended in 2009. Blue Wave 2 started in 2009 and ended in February 2020. -According to the waves labelled for Wave 2 you can see on the RSI that Wave C was strong. -You can also see that Wave iii of Wave E was also a strong move on the RSI which confirms this count. Green Wave 1 represents the start of Blue Wave 3 which occurred from February to March in 2020. Green Wave 2 appears to have ended on the 29th of December 2020 and a break of 1281 will confirm this as we move into a third-of-a-third wave. According to AriasWave this count is accurate and a sign of things to come. One thing I always make a point of is that the news interacts with the waves and not the other way around, therefore trying to pin this on one particular reason is pointless. There are a myriad of reasons why this is happening, the cycle in interest rates and the cycle in the US Dollar are only 2 of these reasons. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
ASX:XPJ
by AriasWave
Investment advice and portfolio revealProbably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also wanna add, I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments): TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
AMEX:SPYLong
by janfoux
1
*BULLISH* 6.5% breakout to $61.90 target by New Years *full disclosure* I have a 28,000 CHF long position in RET* Retail Estates is an underappreciated European retail REIT that is primed for a substantial technical breakout this December. Please take the time to look over the technical analysis, which is purposefully decluttered to provide a utilitarian analysis of the overall forecasted direction of the share price. The fundamental analysis is far more appetizing since the REIT is likely to be a pillar in my portfolio, similar to how SGRO was over the last 5 years. Similar to SGRO that focused on commercial real estate on the periphery of town, RET does the same for retail outlets, except instead of encompassing the UK and pan-Europe, they specialize in Belgium and the Netherlands. As COVID-19 vaccines are set to roll out across Europe, the smaller countries are likely to be more efficient in distribution than the larger ones. Furthermore, Belgium is home to the ECB and the Netherlands is home to the International Justice Court, and with Brexit underway, these are two highly English proficient, international countries that are likely to benefit from a "no deal". Work culture is ultimately shifting to stay-at-home, but the office in the center of town will remain a cornerstone of any business. RET's retail outlets are perfectly suited to take advantage of this new trend as more people live on the periphery of towns and make trips into town on a ad hoc basis. All in all, given the technical and fundamental analysis, I am bullish on the stock. Thank you for reading and considering my analysis. Yours Sincerely, Turner Capital Management
EURONEXT:RETLong
by TCM_Group
Crown Castle, as both a REIT and 5G play looks ready to moveCrown Castle is first a REIT and then a 5G play. The industry is ramping up infrastructure and will do well in the years following as the tower provider leases more and more capacity to the new 5G rollout. Given the surge in Work From Home (WFH) as well as continued advances in technology, 5G will be the mainstay in just a couple of short years. This will empower the engine of revenue growth for this company as well as the earnings and dividends. I'm looking for a consistent move upward over the next 5-7 years from this. #CCI #5G #REIT NYSE:CCI
NYSE:CCILong
by ByDHTaylor
1
TWO - Undervalued REITBook value is $6.50+. Current value is 4.74. They have sold non agency debt and have kept government backed securities. According to the CEO, they have very good cash flow at the moment as opposed to other REITS that have ran up a lot. Only reason why I think this REIT has not ran up a lot, is because the the outstanding shares are more than IVR or MITT (those move quickly very fast, but fundamentals are not as good as TWO). I do have a long position in this at about 5k+ shares. Once dividend returns we are looking at about .2 -.4 a share, which is pretty good. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Make sure to do your own due diligence before buying this stock. I am only providing my opinion.
NYSE:TWOLong
by shy_glizzy
Future price action pointI want to see where the price was going and where to sell it. The convergence of several intersections happen to be at the same time as the end of the free money from Cares act. For me, anytime this is at $4.11 might be a good exit point. This is also the consolidation convergence where it may spike or tank. I was hoping for north of $6 but it might not happen. If this breaks out, I will hold it and redo my chart. This is my own basic thoughts, there are way better charters out there.
NASDAQ:NYMT
by jjhotfingers
2