GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishGOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *As the risk of stagflation becoming full blown recession gets higher every month, equities and cryptos are falling, USD is getting stronger, energy prices are coming back down (in the short term) and Gold is going up.* Recommended ratio: 75% Gold, 25% Cash. Price is currently retesting $1867 minor resistance is it inches closer to testing the 50 MA at ~$1884 (as resistance). Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in three of the past four sessions as Price continues to defend the 200 MA as support. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1824, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 54, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic crossed over bullish in Friday's session and is currently trending up at 71; the next resistance is at 88.41. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -4.93 as it is in the midst of breaking out above -10.84; the next resistance (minor) is at 10.56 (which should coincide with the uptrend line from March 2021). ADX is currently beginning to form a soft trough at 13 as Price continues to consolidate, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to close above $1867 minor resistance one more time, it will likely test the 50 MA at ~$1884 as resistance before potentially retesting $1910 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected by $1867 minor resistance it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from April 2020 at ~$1800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1867.
Recession
Finding the bottomElliot Wave analysis shows that BTC is in an impulsive bearish move of C wave of weekly ABC correction. I think 20kish bottom from a technical perspective has a higher probability, but the current economic environment especially in the US does not incline into that option.
The newest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of May 2022 that just released yesterday is not a good news. US Inflation keeps on rising at 8.6%, the highest since 41 years of US economic history. U.S Dollar will be force to be taken from the market circulation by raising interest rates. Economic recession is inevitable and could kill significant amount of businesses, lowering people purchasing power, and forcing them to only allocate money for primary needs spending.
Don't know how much is enough in raising interest rates in order to control inflation without hurting too much on the economy.
In this kind of economic condition, there is a significant probability that BTC could fall to 12k level, although I do not inclined into it, but let see what the market provide us in the near future.
1-5-2022 was the beginning of the bear market. Here's the data. This is 12 hours of data. We are seeing 48 fifteen minute periods of data. This is a recent example of a market change. 1-5-2022 was the start of the bear market; definitely nothing to do with the J6 hearings....... Please understand the CICO report is showing period by period data. Meaning, if you have your charts set to monthly you will see monthly visuals based on the user input. If the user input is 100 and you are looking at monthly charts, you are looking at 100 months of data and will definitely not show the moment the market shifts. If you want to see the instant a market shifts, you will need much lower periods. I recommend 15 minute charts as a good starting point.
380 support line is critical.If we break through 380 we will be going much lower. Please look at and analyze macro monthly and weekly charts. This administration is forcing our economy lower to bring in another form of government.
SPX - Update on the S&P500 last moveHello traders,
Today on SPX, a lot of movement with the announcement of the CPI index report, which equals to 8.6%....wHaT a SuRpriSEeee!! even though we know it is supposed to be even higher....anyway... all investor are afraid aff, of course, and here are the result...!
I show you in the analysis below how I approach the last move with the Elliott Waves analysis
Wave green (b) retracement on (a)
Wave orange C extension
Wave white 3 extension
Wave white 5 extension
Is this an acceptable rising wedge? Any chart geeks?I was wondering what the people thought about the rising wedge potential breakout to the upside.... How possible do you all think this is? Is it considered betting against America if you think we actually break the structure to the downside? Just wondering thoughts from this picture you see in front of your eyes....
MACRO BEARISH FORECAST (ELLIOT WAVE)A look at what could possibly lie ahead if macro economic conditions continue unfavorably and we ultimately head into a multi year recession/depression; using Elliot wave theory / an Elliot wave correction model.
SPX - Insight on the S&P500 last move and the INCOMING trendHello traders,
The SPX has showed us a beautiful bump on the last objective I made on my previous post.
Nevertheless, it has decided to go and reach lower objectives, and IMO we should go finally hit the 38.2 objectives at the price $4052 .
I have more objectives at a lower prices which are
The green zone: 4042/4023
50%: 4007
61.8%: 3961
Therefore, after hitting one of those objectives, we will go back in a Bull trend to enter in our C of the ABC
// I show you exactly how I found them with the Fibonacci tools in the screenshots below.
And go check my other ides on SPX where you can understand also better where we at.
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BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
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Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
DXY Weekly Outlook (June 06, 2022 - June 10, 2022)Looking for DXY to retrace within the top third of the range (102.424 - 102.730)
US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after.
** 1 = Peak in US2Y ( 1989 ) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's.
2 = Peak in US2Y ( 2000 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
3 = Peak in US2Y ( 2007 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
4 = Peak in US2Y ( 2020 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
Speculation
5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks?
I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks.
Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields
Scenario #2 ( Base Case ): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
Reasons for Crypto-Optimism During the Next RecessionMade a list of a few things for crypto holders to be optimistic about the recession/depression about to unfold in the global markets right now.
- Crypto's market cap is less than 1% (possibly even less than 0.1%) of traditional stocks. If the stock market goes down,
- Banks are taking their time raising interest rates on savings accounts while pushing mortgage and loan rates up at the same time. This will make staking rewards (XTZ- 4.6%, ETH - 3.65%) look appealing.
- The 2008 recession coincides with a period where tech companies (Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft) took over the charts of the Fortune 500. We're likely to see a similar thing happen again - crypto is the industry most positioned to be in that category right now.
- Ponzi schemes exist in traditional markets too, and we're going to see Bernie Madoff-esque figures emerge as the market starts to dip. Madoff was able to keep his racket going for over 20 years just because the stock market kept on going up and up. When that stops, the scams will too. (Many of these practices have been "legalized" in the finance worlds at this point, but it won't change the fact that people will lose money and there will be a backlash against that.) This will further erode trust in the traditional markets as a whole.
People generally don't do research unless they're forced to, but the economic slowdown may force a lot of people to look further into the details out there. This generally works in favor of crypto assets since what they offer now is just a better deal for most people out there.
$SPY Trendline PrecisionWe're seeing huge put volume that continues to test the trendline resistance based on my previous $SPY analysis and based on the timing of this post, we just saw a huge bump from that same trendline. $QQQ also went red today and is fighting intraday support. Stay cautious as we could still move upwards in the near term, but I fully expect us to trend lower within the coming month(s).
ETH- Insight on the current Ethereum situationHello traders,
As you can see, today we re on eth, and because it correlate a bit with BTC, you can combine this analysis with my previous one (even though some volatility may differ, with ETH being more volatile)
Anyway, so we can notice a drop, and it might go until 4 different objective :
- 61.8 % at 1762
- 100 % at 1665
- 123% - 127% at 1610/1590, which is a relatively strong one
I will leave your with screenshot of how I made up this analysis with the Fibonacci tools, and go play around with the chart in order to understand how I am reasoning.
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BTW, I made a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
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Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
$AMD's Bearish SetupWe recently saw a huge big green candle and then gapped down on Friday. Both of which retested the top of the wedge and failed to get over. That itself lends to bearish sentiment and is a bearish move in the making. While the green candles look bullish, the price action has yet to get back over the top of the wedge and until it does, the price emphasizes a bearish trend, so the bulls will want to get that back above the wedge.
Current position: I am still short on $AMD ($100 Put) and will monitor it to test the bottom of the wedge.
Recession?!!It certainly doesn't look good on the weekly. Price failed to continue that bullish momentum into the SSB. The subsequent rejection n the form of hanging man-ish looking candle is a catalyst for my short. The target is the other side of the SSB. It could just drop and be done in a week you know. . .R multiple is over 3.
BTC - Possible last LONG incoming for Bitcoin before the drop? Hello traders,
Today we are on BTC, and what we can tell is that we are still on this correction phase that is lasting from the 12th May...
But don't worry, we might be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, and we are possibly finishing the C wave in few days.
So we are expecting the BTC to drop to the different objective I draw, which correspond to the (b) of the C.
--> My strongest objective is the 90%
Right after it will go up to do the (c) of the C.
Between 34300 and 34700 are my strongest objectives, and they are much likely to hit there, be prepared!
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Which means a DROP coming right after?
Who knows?
With this analysis plan, I can see that we are much likely to be in a complex Triangle (WXYXZ) , and after thee objective of C reached, we might go DOWN to do the wave Z, with 2 stronger objectives ahead:
1---> 113%-123%
2---> 161%
Those are the extension of the WXYXZ in order to find a Z
You can UNZOOM the chart to see everything that I have done on this one
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BTW, I made a PDF, regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves, from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
.
.
Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
SPX - S&P500 reacted perfectly as forecasted :DHello gents,
Today we are analyzing the S&P500 with the Elliott Wave, and we have seen a wonderful bounce on our strongest objective from my May 8th post
That objective correspond to the 113/114.6%
(It was my previous 123-217.2% of my old analysis but after re-analyzing I saw that the 5 blue of the last impulse from the Covid-19 crash must be at the very high of the bullish trend)
But it ain't no worries, the objective was as much as powerful !
Additionally, we have touched the 38.2% (very serious objective) of the entire retracement of the entire impulsive wave from the Covid-19
Therefore, I am still into my last plan where I thought about the WXYXZ that we are into. (Would mean that we are in the X of the WXYXZ)
Otherwise, I have another plan which is the impulsive wave of the Covid-19 is not yet finished and we are entering in the wave 5
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Don't hesitate to comment and check my other plans which are getting validated.
SPX - so CLEAN so FRESH Elliott Waves always BLESSHey traders,
We are today analyzing the SPX, and we are going to prepare for a LONG, because we are soon entering the C wave.
" Stock indices in the United States began lower on Friday, driven down by Tesla and Apple shares, as a strong employment data stoked fears of tighter monetary policy and rising inflation "
LMAO
They can talk about anything in the news or what, Elliott Waves is always before the news.
SOooo, either we long now, or at 38.2%, but the strongest objective is right now at 23.6%
No more description needed, everything is on the charts
and also on my previous charts
GL HF
NYSE Composite Crash & Recovery ProjectionTaking the last 4 major corrections since 2000 averages for both % decline and length to recover to previous level gives a benchmark to consider relative to the current situation.
- % decline 39.38%
- length of time to recover 1,172 days
So $NYA on average well bottom around 10.8k and recover mid-March 2025
Aligning relatively close to the current 200 EMA while taking about 2 yrs for full recovery.
EASY $SPY BAG$SPY in a very similar set up as $NVDA in my last post.
Bullish wedge on the weekly in pink & double bottom on the daily in yellow. Price targets are green lines and stop loss for me would be the red line.
Based off the weekly I'm bullish on $SPY on a very macro level. I think we trend upwards this week (maybe a couple days into next week to make a new higher low). Price target for this week is $430 with an aggressive high of $444.
On a different note. After taking a look at the bullish wedge on the weekly go see if you can find something similar around July 2008 and see what happened next:/. May shed some light on what's to come *cough cough a recession
Not financial advice.
XAGUSD Silver : Stairway to heaven? Bull flag behemoth! 25.5A "bull flag" is a bullish candlestick pattern which is defined by -
1) A linear movement up (flag pole)
2) A tunnel or channel which is on top of the linear movement up (flag)
3) A break above the top of the channel which is the continuation of the up-trend (target)
The target is the size of the flag pole movement stretched from the breakout of the tunnel. In this specific case the long-term target is around $45.
The tunnel or channel range is between 20.20 - 26.20
Looking at the MACD we are furthest away from the baseline since March 2020 and showing convergence similar as back than before the flag pole movement of $17, which of course is a very bullish technical sign.
Silver is fundamentally bullish as well due to rising inflation globally.
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TSLA Tesla : Where will Elon navigate the ship to? 24.5A long-term support trend-line ongoing since March 2020 was broken down Feb, March 2022.
Since, we had a false break back up April 2022 and the price went back below breakout very quickly, as well as retest of the long-term breakout down once again.
630 - 540 is support range and if holds may be the lowest point we will see for Tesla.
A break below may open the way to 350-200. A break below would be a weekly open below 540.
A correction back to 750 is possible within the down-trend (connecting highs trend-line).
The fundamentals going for Tesla are simple : Technology, tracking, real estate, branding, CEO
The fundamentals against Tesla are : Recession, inflation, overpriced auto manufacturer, supply issues, Twitter deal instability
Overall - We may be going to a heavy landslide with a close below 540. Keeping above is a good bullish sign.
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Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow - It would truly mean a lot to me.
If there's any questions or comments please don't hesitate to ask.
I am not a financial advisor and encourage everyone to do their own research, thank you :)
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Are we looking for $300?Chart looks broken and now retesting previous highs. This can come down anytime towards $300 pretty fast.
