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Recession

Recession concerns dominate the headlinesEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 As the dollar remained strong, EUR/USD reached a 20-year low of 1.0160 on Wednesday. Amidst predictions of a local recession and an impending energy crisis, the shared currency is among the weakest. The GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuates about 1.1930, under pressure as the UK government crisis intensifies. Over thirty officials resigned, and many others begged Boris Johnson to quit. The 1922 Committee, comprised of Conservative backbenchers, sought to alter the rules that shield PM Johnson from the second vote of no confidence. The FOMC issued the Minutes of its most recent meeting. The memo demonstrated that Federal Reserve officials concurred that rising inflation necessitated restrictive interest rates and are willing to become even more stringent if inflation persists. In addition, most respondents perceived an adverse risk to growth and a "substantial danger" that rising inflation may stay entrenched. The US Federal Reserve opened the door for another 75 basis point rate rise. Wall Street struggled to register gains throughout the day, but significant indices ended higher. Although the FOMC Minutes' hawkish tone, policymakers refrained from discussing a 100 basis point (bps) rate rise, despite committing to do everything necessary to combat inflation. In addition, policymakers abstained from discussing the recession. The yield curve for US Treasuries remains inverted. Currently, the 10-year note yields 2.93 percent, while the 2-year note yields 2.97 percent. Typically, an inverted curve is viewed as an early indicator of a recession. Against the U.S. dollar, commodity-based currencies exhibited minimal movement. The AUD/USD exchange rate is around 0.6780, while the USD/CAD exchange rate is approximately 1.3040. The USD/CHF exchange rate touched a new monthly high of 0.9743, while the USD/JPY pair finished at 135.85. Gold reached a new 2022 low of $1,732.19 per troy ounce before the end of the trading day. The current price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is $98.40. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Bear Flag on 4H chartThere is a bearish divergence in the 4-hour graph of the # BTCUSD , which could bring the price of bitcoin even lower, to 7K levels. For now, what seems is that we are in a Bull trap, and then fall even more, derived from the global financial crisis, uncertainty and possible economic depression that we are about to reach. All cryptocurrencies could fall at abnormally low prices, even some disappear such as LUNA. You have to be very careful and ready for the worst, and try to win and take advantage of this moment. This is only a personal opinion, and should not be taken as a financial advice.
Short
by SrMayoZ
6
SPX - Calculating the odds of a RecessionUnderstanding the possibility and consequences of a recession by determine the strength of U.S Economy using key economic indicators GDP - In order to sustain the economy consumption must be increased meanwhile, Fed trying to tame inflation by implementing policies that will going to reduce the demand. Ergo, The GDP is expected to fall by 1.25 next quarter. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - Every time a huge trend of layoffs starts 45 days prior to a recession. at this point, No major corporate layoffs have taken place and currently the unemployment rate is at historically low levels. INFLATION RATE - High oil prices, Supply Chain disruption, Hyper inflation risks across the globe and most importantly higher interest rates, There is no doubt that inflation rate will counting rising. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX - Current level is below 60 which reflects lower consumer confidence which will result in lower consumer spending DOLLAR's PURCHASING POWER - U.S Dollar getting stronger against other fiat currencies, However it's purchasing power is eroding, High interest rates have strengthened the U.S dollar and it's expected to continue rising. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - Short term vs Long term treasury inflows, Whenever yield nears the zero or becomes negative then recession follows. Federal Funds Rate - Interest rates are expected to hit 3.75% by the end of this year, There will be several rate hikes in the following months that will result in global economic slowdown. Geopolitical Risk - Disruption of world order has already begun with Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, Growing risks of China and Taiwan conflicts, Shri Lanka's Crisis, Turkey's Hyperinflation risk and if U.S economy crashes then a new world order is imminent. Conclusion: Current Health status of U.S economy is bearable However, projection for upcoming quarter is uncertain, the most optimistic part is low unemployment rates, Financially strong businesses and Strong households with higher savings rate, in turns following rate hikes cannot be associated with an inevitable recession. Health care and defense sectors with high dividend yield stocks are greater alternatives to invest in.
SP:SPX
by EQTSHARES
2
Crude Oil may fall rapidly to the 85 to 92 zone supportCrude oil futures CL1! Is making an ABC zigzag correction & may reach 92 where A=C. 88 is the 0.618 Fib retracement while 85 is the Nov2021 Top. This strong support zone will enable crude oil to retest the blue upchannel base before resuming rally thru 2022. Crude oil is falling due to recesion fears & demand destruction. This should be temporary due to the supply issues created by the invasion & sanctions which will not go away soon. Not trading advice
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by xtremerider8
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal. THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by xtremerider8
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 58% BTC, 42% Cash. *USD hit a 20-year high, Oil, Treasuries and Gold are down, and cryptos and equities are up slightly as global recession fears continue to be exacerbated by higher inflation numbers. The Euro is crashing due in large part to the ECB failing to raise central bank interest rates to combat inflation in time. Key dates: CPI report is published at 830am (EST) on 07/13. Bitcoin has been testing $20k for twenty one sessions now.* Price is currently attempting to break out of a twenty one day consolidation at $20k and if it is able to continue up it would likely form a local Double Bottom (short-term). Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $21500, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 40 as it quickly approaches a test of 42 resistance; if it breaks above 42 resistance then it would likely test the descending trendline from January 2021 at ~48. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 73 as it closes in on a test of 78 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -1600 as it quickly approaches -1435 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 42 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance (and would confirm a short-term Double Bottom). However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially testing the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
Consumer Sentiment's Role in Long-Term Buying Opportunities Consumer Sentiment is just one tool for investors to use when choosing whether to buy, sell, add, or trim stocks. But it can be a very useful tool, especially when markets are heavily skewed in one direction as they appear to be today. There have only been four (the three breaches during the 08 crisis I count as one) occurrences in the past when the U.S. consumer sentiment has dipped below the 57.40 mark. As we are currently quickly approaching 57.40 I have taken the liberty to map out the five-year returns of each of the four previous lows in consumer sentiment (assuming a buy-in during the month of the 57.40 breaches). 11/1974: 43.6% five-year return 04/1980: 76.02% five-year return 06/2008: 16.31% five-year return 11/2008: 81.33% five-year return 02/2009: 116.35% five year return 08/2011: 58.77% five-year return Average nominal five-year return on the S&P500 since 1957: roughly 53% Importance of these data? The takeaway here is that historically low consumer sentiment (sub 57.40) has in the past provided great opportunities for patient investors to enter long-term positions in stocks and yield abnormally high returns. Basing an investment decision on one economic metric is not an intelligent strategy, but using consumer sentiment to help time your buying position appears to be an effective method going off of historic price action.
FRED:UMCSENT
by Gooby_Trades
Recession and inflation gone worse .. more plumpingUS fears the mount of recession and yet inflation had gone high and higher interest rates it just nearly 80% here in USA. Bitcoin had tried to back up but admit the US fears mount of rescission and inflation.. the bear market isn’t over.. again stop saying we are in the bottom we aren’t officially at the bottom yet. We are forward to see another big crash in history.. even so the Bitcoin experts said Bitcoin bottom should expect 10 or 13K to make the massive bullish rally over 100K + If we are waiting for the buy then wait for the bottom to be bottom in.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
3
AUDJPY breaks 50 Day Moving averageThe pair has been pivoting to reverse May - June gains. The pair has been printing lower highs forming a descending triangle. A confirmation of the break on the daily timeframe will warrant a short-sale. Fundamentally, the AUD is struggling in the face of a global economic slowdown. The currency, a bellwether for global risk sentiment, weakened after the RBA raised rates further to 1.35%. The commodity linked currency is falling as commodities prices dip in the face of a possible global recession. The JPY safe-haven properties are starting to show up following risk-off sentiments as traders weigh in on recessionary fears making this the ideal pair to trade for the rest of the year. Risks to this trade remain in the back of my mind. Australia, as opposed to other major economies, is doing a lot better. China's recovery could support the currency. Further inflationary economic releases could push global bond yield higher lifting the interest rate differentials the therefore the the pair. Trade with caution
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELYI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in. CONS: Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Theory 2 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Theory 1 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY ONE: Current position is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 1 has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see new lows below 3636.87 which was the recent low from June. IMPORTANT MOVES: Currently Intermediate wave 3 is the shortest between waves 1 and 3 at 31 days. This would force wave 5 to be less than 31 days which is set for July 19. Minor waves 1 and 2 as marked (YELLOW) have accounted for 17 of the 31 days. This means we must complete Minor waves 3, 4, and 5 within the next 14 days which will be a very tight timeframe. This theory will be ruled out if we break above 3945 before we break beneath 3636. The futures right now are pointing to this theory being disqualified. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle. There is also an Elliott Wave violation inside of Intermediate wave 3 (the span between PINK 2 and PINK 3). Minute wave 4 ends beyond where Minute wave 2 ends. This violation likely negates the Minor waves inside of Intermediate 3 and its end point.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% ETH, 47% Cash. *MONDAY SCARIES. Cryptos are rallying today as US equity markets are closed for July 4th. It's still premature to call this a bottom so it's prudent to be wary of a potential Bull Trap.* Price is currently attempting to break out to the upside after testing $1k for eighteen consecutive sessions, confirmation of a short-term breakout would require Price to reclaim the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1200 as support. Volume remains Low and is currently on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive sessions if it is able to close today in the green; the Low volume is concerning and adds to risk of a potential Bull Trap. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1270, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up and testing 37 resistance with no sign of peak formation; the next resistance is at 55. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 57, the next support is at 47 and resistance at 81. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -132 after defying its first attempt at a bearish crossover, the next resistance is at -91 and support at -197. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 46.50 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish; if ADX continues lower as Price goes higher this would become increasingly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1200-$1250 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1k one more time before potentially testing $775 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1k.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
EURUSD: Long term viewHi Folks, As you can see the charts speaks for their own: on a long term view we can clearly see a weak Euro against US Dollar. The European currency is currently on a downtrend since last year,when it tried to break through resistance at 1.22,and since then keeps loosing dominance in the FX market, as well for his purchasing power which is decline since EUR inception as a main currency in the European Community. As we can see from the chart on the left EUR is currently testing support at 1.05,a key support level which possibly will give a bit of breath to the currency before the downtrend continuation. For the next months I am expecting EURUSD to get back around 1.12 ( where there is a massive gap on a Daily time frame) before continue his downtrend towards main support at 0.98,a continuation of negative trend given by negative performance of European Indexes and also because ECB will keeps rising Interest Rates until 2023 at least,on the hope to maintain low inflation rate in the Euro Zone. Please share your ideas or opinions in the comments below,and thanks for reading !! Also check my previous analysis on DXY on the link below,any comments are welcome! Happy trading everyone :)
Short
by CryptoAndy85
Has Gasoline Price Already Peaked?NYMEX:RB1! While the U.S. stock market performed miserably lately, energy commodities have a banner year. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price reached an all-time high of $5.016 a gallon on June 14th. Diesel logged its own record on June 19th, at $5.816 a gallon. Crude oil price hike is certainly a major contributing factor. However, refined products have been rising a lot faster. AAA gasoline was at record high $4.114 in July 2008 when WTI crude oil made history at $147 a barrel. Last month, WTI peaked at $123, at 16% below the 2008 high. However, gasoline broke $5, a whopping 22% above its 2008 record. Since mid-June, WTI lost steam and entered a downturn. It trades below $110 today. Meanwhile, gasoline price barely moved and still stands above $4.80 per AAA data. In my view, the gasoline market has already peaked, and a downtrend would follow. RBOB gasoline wholesale price, currently at $3.68 a gallon, could fall 30% or more in the next year. I came to this assessment based on two key factors: Firstly, refining margins could decrease significantly due to mean reversion. Refinery is the process to turn crude oil into gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and other petrochemical byproducts. Refining margin measures the revenue from selling refined products, subtracting the cost of crude oil and natural gas going into the process. Below is a simple formula: Refining margin = revenue (94% of crude processed) - costs (crude oil + natural gas used) Whereas refining revenue = 23% gasoline + 63% diesel oil + 8% heavy fuel oil A barrel of 42-gallon crude oil is processed into 40 gallons of refined. For each barrel, you would get approximately 25 gallons of gasoline, 9 gallons of diesel, and 3 gallons of heavy fuel oil. According to Polish oil refiner LOTOS Group, the latest daily model refining margin is $59.06 per barrel of crude oil. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refining margin was below $10 in February. Margins were in single digits throughout 2021 and sometimes even turned negative. Crack Spread is a “quick and dirty” way to measure profit margin of a U.S. refinery. To calculate the 3:2:1 crack spread for a Gulf Coast refinery that processes Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) crude oil, add the spot price for two barrels of Gulf Coast conventional gasoline to the spot price for one barrel of Gulf Coast ultra-low sulfur diesel. Then subtract the spot price for three barrels of LLS crude oil. Finally, divide the result by 3 to produce a crack spread in dollars per barrel. Once the summer driving season is over, I expect crack spread to go down due to a combination of market force (reduced demand) and political pressure. Secondly, gasoline demand could decline significantly in a U.S. economic recession. In the past 15 years, gasoline market has crashed three times. The first was in 2008, following the subprime crisis. The second time in 2014, driven by a 60% crude oil price fall. The latest was in March 2020 when COVID-19 broke out in the U.S., leading most states to travel restrictions, lock-down or social distancing. Today, a Federal Reserve tracker suggests that the U.S. has already entered a recession. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which tracks economic data in real time, sees second-quarter GDP contracting by 1%. Coupled with the first-quarter’s 1.6% decline, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP fits the technical definition of a recession. Gasoline market is very sensitive to changes in consumer spending. Automobile driving, which shows clear “seasonal patterns”, is the dominant demand factor. In my view, this is the defining price driver in RBOB. For viewers who read my previous writings, you would understand why I prefer RBOB over WTI in forming a trading strategy – it’s more straight-forward with fewer moving parts. A short position in NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures (RB) is a way to express this bearish view. The January (RBF3) contract is quoted at $2.779 on July 1st. RBOB futures is based on wholesale gasoline price. We could add $1 to RBF3 to get to a ballpark estimate of retail price in January. For the month after the Christmas holiday seasons, $3.80 a gallon seems to be overpriced. RBOB futures is quoted at USD per gallon. Each contract has a notional value of 42,000 gallons (1,000 barrels), equivalent to $116,760 in current market value. To place an order, $8,500 margin is required per contract. A move of 1 cent in gas price will result in $420 gain or loss to your account. Alternatively, if you are uncertain of which direction gasoline price would go, but agree that refining margin could revert to mean, we could Short the Crack Spread . A 3-2-1 short crack spread can be constructed by placing 3 Short WTI, 2 Long RB and 1 Long HO contracts. We can also monitor the following data points to be released to test the validity of these two trade set-ups: • Holiday driving data (July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas) • Q2 and Q3 earnings releases from the retail sector (Walmart, Target, Dollar General, etc.) • Q2 and Q3 GDP data • Monthly CPI data • Fed rate decisions (JUL 26-27, SEP 20-21, NOV 1-2, and DEC 13-14) Russia-Ukraine conflict poses the biggest risk to our trade. If the contagion risk intensifies and ripples through Europe, energy prices could hike sharply again. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
76
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *Bitcoin has been testing $20k (a critical psychological level) for nineteen consecutive sessions. As many cryptos have returned almost all of their gains after March 2020 (when Federal Reserve dropped rates to 0.25% and started aggressive QE and Congress began issuing stimulus checks), Bitcoin would have to fall to ~$10k for it to return all 'Covid-19 relief gains'. That said, some like Michael Saylor see this is as a good time to start buying; Microstrategy solidified their position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin by buying 480 more BTC .* Price is currently testing $19417 support (second largest supply/demand zone) as it attempts to establish a local Double-Bottom but risks falling to test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k if it loses this critical support. Volume is Low and is currently on track to favor sellers for an eighth consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $21819, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 29 as it hovers above the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 26 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 30 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is trending up slightly at -1945 as it continues its attempt to establish support at -2497; the next resistance is at -1435. ADX continues to trend sideways at 45 as Price continues to trade around $20k, this is neutral at the moment; should ADX come down as Price goes up, this would be bullish -- and should ADX continue up as Price falls, this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here at $19417 major support and reclaim $20k psychological support, then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price loses $19417 major support, it will likely test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $20k .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
Full Fundamental & Technical Analysis - BTC We are living in arguably the most interesting time for all financial markets. Some economists, politicians, and business entities know the saying: “when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Now, no matter how you interpret this statement the U.S accounted for over 20% of the expansion in world RGDP during the past two decades. Moreover, U.S' correlation coefficient for Economic Growth compared with the rest of the world is over 0.8 (impying great significance). Thereby, I will use U.S bonds throughout my analysis to explain price changes in BTC. Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are classified as high risk and volatile trading assets, and therefore the value/price of these digital assets is greatly exposed to exterior influences (news, Elon Musk's Tweets, and etc...). The chart above shows the Log(BTC): - Breaking-out it's long-term channel - Successfully retesting it's old support line (or new resistance) - Starting a new Bearish trend For Retest Zone 1: Global Investors' confidence has been decreasing. For maximisation of relevant content I have only attached Investor Confidence Index as proof. www.statestreet.com Macro analysis may potentially explain these changes: *** Short-term bond yield reflects Fed's Monetary Policy changes *** Long-term bond yield mirrors Inflation *** The Spread is the difference between the yield rate in the two bonds (10-2)yr From above we may derive: - Inflation's impact on Fed's interest rate policy - 4 cycles of an economy - Some use for predicting recessions Looking at the chart we are at risk of going into a recession. This analysis stresses the extent to which Macroeconomic indicators are important in explaining, evaluating, and predicting Investors' confidence. “Historically, a US recession tends to follow a year after the curve inverts, though the variance is large and there are occasional false positives,” said Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities. (Financial Times, APRIL 6 2022) Evidence of impact on BTC: (using average volume as an indicator of investors' confidence) When BTC's average volume started gradually decreasing - the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread reversed direction, and started heading down to 0 (Figure 1). BTC dropped by almost 75% (from ATH) at the same time the spread dropped with great momentum (Figure 2). Figure 1: Figure 2: This is my first TradingView Idea, I'd really appreciate some feedback :) I enjoyed making this post and plan to conduct further analyses on retest 2 shown on the charts above (current retest). Thanks for your time! Stay safe
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Sanzhar_m
2
Bear Market = Altcoin Season? BTC and ETH Losing Ground to AltsBoth stocks and crypto markets have been down in most of 2022 (largely due to inflation, rising interest rates, and talks of an upcoming global recession), but in the last month we've seen a few interesting patterns emerge: - Proof-of-Storage coins, particularly Chia Coin (XCH) and STORJ (STORJ) have seen very favorable gains. - The two major crypto coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum, has actually been performing worse than the majority of "altcoins" out there - a sign that crypto investors are reallocating their portfolios towards alts. - Weekends are usually when crypto investors typically make their move - and we see that coins that offer staking rewards (interest rates start to look more favorable during recessionary periods) have been gaining ground. (XTZ +4.5%, ATOM +4.5%, MATIC +3%) This is a PSA but beware of newly minted coins' "staking rewards" because a lot of them are based on the idea of certain assets (BTC, ETH, even fiat) always going up. When that inflow dries up, we're going to see a lot of services and platforms go through a LUNA-style collapse - if you don't DYOR carefully here, you may get caught up in the storm. Many coins that currently offer "staking rewards" have cut a lot of corners to keep up with last year's hype and is living on borrowed time. cobie.substack.com In theory, Layer-2 coins built on top of the EVM network operate independently of ETH's price, but we don't actually know all the details of what goes on behind the scenes - some of them may collapse just as well if their model has been reliant on speculative gains on ETH itself. (Something that the project teams will never admit to, even if true.) Time will tell whether it turns out this way or not, of if the Merge in August will stabilize or destabilize these economies as a whole. A lot of uncertainty in the big-name coins right now, either way - meanwhile, altcoins have been gradually chipping away at their lead.
Long
by RyanTanaka
More Downside, due to market-sentimentHello everyone, so looking at the weekly timeframe, the price of Bitcoin is still below the 200-moving day average. The stochastic RSI is still oversold, meaning that I am still bearish on Bitcoin. On the other hand, today is July 1st, a brand new month for Bitcoin. Also, it's now Quarter 3 for the economy. Fears of recession and inflation are still looming, as we still see the stock market and crypto reacting to the market sentiment. Yesterday, we found out that inflation still went up for the Eurozone. This means that inflation will likely go up for June's CPI data. I think we are already in a recession since the Federal Reserve of Atlanta released their Quarter 2 "GDPNow" forecast ending at a negative 1% decline. This week, we also had the announcement that Quarter 1 GDP was revised lower to -1.6%, compared to the original GDP data of -1.5%. Now that the FED of Atlanta has their Q2 GDPnow at a negative, that means we are in a recession right now. We would have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis. We are already seeing signs of the economy slowing down as many tech companies are starting to lay off workers. Retail is now seeing less traffic in their store as their revenue has been going down. Now, what does this all relate to Bitcoin? It relates to Bitcoin because it will have a negative reaction once the official announcement of a recession is out, while inflation persists. That's why I still expect more downside to the $16,000- $14,500 levels as it is going to draw investors away to save money through a recession. Once we fall more, expect alt coins to fall even further. May I be wrong on this? Absolutely! This is not financial advise, so please conduct your own research. My reasoning is all due to global market sentiment; which includes inflation, supply chain, and recessionary fears.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by brandonreymejia
2