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Recession

Fears of a 100 bps US rate hike cool downEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ Assuring Federal Reserve officials' comments have calmed investors' concerns for a historical 100 basis points (bps) interest rate increase, as the 9.1% headline inflation could persuade the Fed for more aggressive measures. The latest initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 over a 238,000 forecast. The Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment readings tonight are expected to indicate a slightly contracted economy as inflation rages on. Meanwhile, the greenback retained its strength against other major currencies. USD/CAD reached 1.3223 before closing at 1.3117. USD/JPY even surged 154 pips to 138.93, a 24-year high. The EUR/USD pair broke parity levels to a two-decade low, after recovering from 0.9950, it closed at 1.0016 with little change. The British Pound lost 66 pips to 1.1822. AUD/USD slid to 0.6745, giving up 15 pips. Gold prices also took a hit from the dominant US dollar, gold futures briefly broke $1,700 support, managing to return to 1,705.8 with a $30 deficit. Recession fear still haunts the oil market, crude oil futures traded flat at 95.78 as they recouped from a low of 91.03. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
AMZN targets the 92-82 pandemic D.bottom low & Vol Profile zone?AMZN has been making an ABC correction since the 188 ATH. The decline was very fast once it failed to hold the 150 volume profile zone. It has retraced exactly to 101, the 0.854 FIB of the 82 pandemic low to ATH. There was a little bounce but AMZN basically is just hovering around the 2016 TL while consolidating inside my red box without breaking the downtrend line. LOOKING BEARISH. I think AMZN will target the pandemic low at 82 to make a double bottom ending hew ABC correction. 82 is also the 0.618 FIB retracement from 14.20 (2015 low) to ATH. 82 is also the 1.618 Fib Extention of the ABC correction, making it a very strong support. WARNING: There may still be a 20% downside from latest low at 101 as consumer discretionary will be the first to suffer during an economic downturn. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:AMZN
by xtremerider8
Uptrend holds despite dollar fallEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Following the release of the US Consumer Price Index, which showed that prices rose by a significantly worse 9.1% YoY in June than anticipated (8.8%), the US dollar ended the day slightly weaker. The core figure came in at 5.9 percent, down the previous 6 percent but higher than the projected 5.8 percent, indicating that pricing pressures are still very much present. The data first sparked risk aversion, causing stocks to plummet and government bond costs to skyrocket amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may consider more significant rate hikes, raising the possibility of a recession. Germany also released its CPI data, which showed that it was indeed 7.6 percent YoY as previously predicted. Due to central bank imbalances, the EUR/USD pair is presently trading at about 1.0055 after reaching a peak of 1.0121. The US Federal Reserve has increased rates several times, and this month they will probably increase them by another 75 basis points. On the other hand, the European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to begin its gradual tightening in July. Positive UK data helped the pound during European trading hours as the monthly GDP increased to 0.5 percent in May, a significant improvement from the previous -0.3 percent. Additionally, Manufacturing Production expanded by 2.3 percent YoY in the same month, above expectations, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent YoY. The pair lost ground during the day, finishing at roughly 1.1890. In July, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 100 basis points to 2.5 percent, versus the market’s forecast for a rate increase of 75 basis points. The BOC recognized in its policy statement that, since the spring of last year, it has largely underestimated inflation due to external factors. Due to the dismal state of US equities, USD/CAD dropped to 1.2933 and is currently trading around 1.2980. Prior to the announcement of Australian employment data, the AUD/USD pair maintained slight gains near 0.6760. The nation will release June employment data during the upcoming Asian session. After adding 60.6K new jobs in May, it is anticipated that the nation will have added just modestly 25K new jobs in June. The nation’s unemployment rate is also anticipated to decrease to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent. Australia will also release July Consumer Inflation Expectations before the statistics, with analysts anticipating a decrease from the previous estimate of 6.7 percent to 5.9 percent. While there was minimal movement in crude oil prices, WTI is currently trading at $95.80 per barrel. The gold price settled at $1,733 per troy ounce. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
S&P500, Up or Down?!S&P was hit by CPI news release with about a 2% drop from the 1H candle. Prices started climbing there after, but this could be a result of price-action, take profit at a key level. We see this in the 1D chart, for a rally base rally which was printed from 20-24 June 2022. Double top potentially forming if price does break the 3760 RBR zone. Where do we see prices going from here? Are we in for a deeper crash back to pre-covid highs of 3400 on 19 Feb 2020? Recession scares are shaking the market, and much is uncertain - or so they say... Safer long term buys above 3900. Otherwise, would say outlook is still generally looking bearish. That aside, short term buys probable, given the momentum we had on 13/7 and a series of higher low candle closes into resistance, holding above the demand zone.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by geneAnalytics
Where US30 Is headed to next?Us30 has taken bearish hits since the beginning of this year. If it stays below $33,480 and continues back to the lows at 29,670 and further, we could see further decline. Not only for US30, but for the stocks within the index. Before that happens price could pullback towards 32,500 giving the buyers some opportunity and hopes of recovery. That's just a thought until it happens. For now, the Dow is bearish and if there is hopes of true recovery price will have to push up pass 33,480 and continue up from there.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by ShaquanLopez
1
ETHUSD CRASHING BREAKOUT, when to buy.Same thing for bitcoin .. I like around 500 area for a buy as a long term. Again the bear flag formation then a breakout. Recession & inflation gone worse from the weigh pressure of high rates. 500 area long term to over 7000, even so price will go higher. We be seeing 6000 but possible to go a lot higher. Same thing if your a day trader hold that sell profit if using MT4&5 .. be sure to take those large and buy with bigger lots. Coin base..etc wait for the buy around 500. Please be careful and good luck:) see you at the buy zone. Buy ETHUSD: around 500 area Take profit : 7000 or higher
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
More bitcoin crash from breakout, when To buy. Bear flag created and more drops, my analysis had been created of more drop , more breakouts. Experts still expecting to down lower down to 10K so the price will pressure up to go higher. Even so the White House warned about the inflation are going highly elevated , inflation and recession are going a lot worse. This is when to buy .. 10K area anywhere around 10K .. long term buy hold it for 2 years and will go over 100K, massive bull run is coming but we won’t expect the new low around august or September. 6500 is possible but not so sure yet of that low keep an eye only if just in case. New low for bitcoin is around 10K because base on the charts it has stronger floors and support, if you are day trading like MT4 or MT5 hold that sell keep making those profits.. if you have coin base or binance I highly wait around 10K for the buy long term. This is all for now trade safe and please be careful for bull traps. Buy bitcoin: entry anywhere around 10K Take profit: over 100K
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
2
Until 19.7K Recession concerns, this is why to go lowerBitcoin miners shit off the rigs since Texas power grids even so heat wave threatens grid rolling blackouts but there’s more.. The recession had gone worse and pushing the weigh as the inflation stilll marks the risk to go higher, while the red and still pushing the chains to high up the rates of the inflation. As so Wall St, expects bitcoin and all other crypto to crash even worse.. experts still seeing even investors expect low as 10K back to back haven’t bought since September 2020. We all be expecting lower price as recession and inflation went higher rates, as for pandemic.. we aren’t in pandemic at all but still in a stage of Epidemic .. monkey pox are spreading, new omnicron variant are spreading even faster while BA5 variant are still spreading. Now you all know and again if you are looking to buy , I would wait until 10K hits.. the more it drops the higher the price gets. 10K strongest bottom support will take us over 100K. If your day trading please trade safe and use low risk, do not go high risk.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
I see nothing good here... There is literally nothing good seeing #Euro and #USD reaching parity. Clearly, and despite the roughly same volume at each top, the 6-year-double top is no joke. Especially considering the fact that its fueling the violation of a major round-numbered multi-year support right at this moment. Most probably if not sure, Due to the fact that it takes longer to build than to tear down, #EURUSD will trade between 0.80-0.90 before Dec22 pushing the market into a (deeper) recession and inflation will hit harder this time.
Short
by GTN671
1
Ugly Markets - Embrace the TrendsThe trend is always our best friend in markets across all asset classes. While many investors and traders waste their time interpreting the new cycle and other factors, the path of least resistance of market prices is a real-time indicator of the current sentiment. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 Four of six commodity sectors post losses Rising interest rates and a strong dollar Economic contraction- Copper tells a story Go with the flow Market prices rise when buyers are more aggressive than sellers and fall when sellers dominate buyers. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on value in a transparent environment, the marketplace. The results for Q2 were ugly in most markets. Stocks and bonds fell, the dollar index rose, and four of six commodity sectors posted losses. The best performing sectors reflect the supply-side issues created by the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation. Uncertainty in markets creates price variance, and markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. As we move into the second half of 2022, uncertainty is at the highest level in years. Meanwhile, market liquidity tends to decline during the summer vacation months. Lower participation only exacerbates price variance as bids can disappear during selloffs and offers often evaporate during rallies. It is a time for caution in markets across all asset classes, but the trends on a simple price chart tell us all we need to know about the path of least resistance of prices. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 The stock market was ugly in Q2: The DJIA fell 11.25% The S&P 500 declined 16.45% The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 22.45% Over the first half of 2022: The DJIA was down 15.31% The S&P 500 fell 20.58% The NASDAQ plunged 29.51% As the Fed began increasing the Fed Funds Rate and reducing its swollen balance sheet, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell 8.19% in Q2 and were 13.75% lower over the first half of this year as of June 30. The long bond fell below its technical support level at the October 2018 136-16 low and reached 132-09 in June before bouncing. Four of six commodity sectors post losses While the energy and animal protein sectors posted gains in Q2, base and precious metals, grains, and soft commodities moved to the downside. The quarterly results by sector were: Energy- +6.77% Animal proteins- +3.31% Gains- -3.46% Soft commodities- -4.12% Precious metals- -12.91% Base metals- -27.24% Over the first half of 2022, four of six sectors were higher than at the end of 2021: Energy- +43.86% Grains- +14.65% Animal proteins- +10.96% Soft commodities- +1.46% Precious metals - -5.43% Base metals- -13.07% The results reflect the economic and political landscapes. Energy and food prices rose as the war in Ukraine threatens the global supply chains. Metal prices declined because central bank policies and economic conditions led to rising rates and a strong US dollar. Rising interest rates and a strong dollar The US Federal Reserve blamed rising prices and inflation on “transitory” pandemic-related factors throughout most of 2021. The central bank waited far too long to address inflation and is now playing catch-up when the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions impact the global economy’s supply side. Central bank monetary policy can affect the demand-side, but they have few tools to manage supply-side shocks. The rise in energy and food and the decline in metal prices tell us that central banks are struggling to address the current economic landscape. The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures chart shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While the long bond bounced from the June low, the bearish trend remains intact in early July. The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments, rose 6.21% in Q2 and was 9.28% higher over the first half of 2022. The dollar index settled at the 104.464 level on June 30 and rose to a new two-decade high of 107.615 on July 8. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the pricing benchmark for most commodities, a strong dollar caused raw materials to rise in other currencies, putting downward pressure on dollar-based prices. Economic contraction- Copper tells a story The US remains the world’s leading economy. In Q1, US GDP fell, and it likely declined in Q2. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarterly GDP declines. Copper is a base metal that trades on the London Metals Exchange and the CME’s COMEX division. Copper has a long history of diagnosing the economic climate, earning it the nickname Doctor Copper. In Q1, COMEX and LME copper prices rose by around 6.5%. In Q2, they plunged, with the COMEX futures falling 21.82% and the LME forwards dropping 20.41%. COMEX and LME copper prices were down over 15% over the first half of 2022. The chart of COMEX copper futures shows the move to an all-time $5.01 per pound high in March 2022 and a decline to a low below $3.40 in early July. The descent below technical support at the August 2021 $3.98 low and nearly 30% drop as of July 8 are signs that recession is not on the horizon; it has already gripped the economy. Go with the flow Inflation remains at a four-decade high, and while raw material prices have declined, the economic condition is far higher than the current Fed Funds rate. The central bank has pledged to fight inflation with monetary policy tools. Higher interest rates could put more downward pressure on raw material prices and the stock market as the economy contracts. Time will tell if the Fed continues its hawkish path or reacts to current market conditions. Waiting far too long to address inflation in 2021 suggests the central bank will likely remain hawkish regardless of market conditions in 2022. It is impossible to pick tops or bottoms in any market as prices often rise or fall far beyond where logic, reason, and rational analysis dictate. A market participant’s most effective tool is to follow the trends until they bend. The path of least resistance of asset prices can be the most significant factor for future performance. In these troubled times, where uncertainty is at the highest level in years, don’t fight the trends and go with the flow. In early Q2, it remains bearish in many markets across all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, and other asset classes are making lower highs and lower lows, while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction. Markets are ugly, but nothing lasts forever. Trend following can be the best route for capturing the most significant moves. You will never buy the lows or sell the highs when following trends, as they will cause short positions at bottoms and long positions at market tops. However, trend-following allows for extracting a substantial percentage from a significant price move. Embrace those trends until they change. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
Facebook (Meta) False Breakout SetupHi Traders, New week new opportunities. I am currently looking at Facebook (Meta) for a False Breakout Setup. The most recent price action shows that price has created a resistance at 172.58 which has multiple attempts to break, I do believe that price will break the current resistance and meet with the real untested resistance at 176.0. If this does happen I will then start looking at trading opportunities. Now I don’t really care what happens when price breaks the resistance or how the price may move, All I care about is price break back into the range below 172.58. If this does happen I will be more than happy to start looking at shorts. Looking at higher time frames, This is a simple lower high we need formed for the continuation. I am long term bearish on most Nas100 stocks and I will be looking at the longer term picture or potential shorts to come. Let smash this week. Renaldo Philander
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Tradebudz
US 10-year rate. Elliott wave possibilitiesThe US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data that the central bank is using, atleast for now (or they have the data, but because of political pressures, continue to focus on containing inflation). The vertical drop in commodities has been puzzling no doubt; in fact the descent has been so quick that most people are aligning towards the fact that Fed forward guidance of more hikes (it remains to be seen whether existing measures of tightening policy are having the desired effect) are showing signs of demand destruction. I think for the Fed to acknowledge that a recession is a bigger worry than growth (at a certain point of time in the future), they would like to see a consistently southward CPI print which shows credible signs of not being sticky on the downside. For now, I believe they are simply taking back all that they made available in terms of additional QE to pull the world economy out of the Covid led crash. Tactically, the visit to 2.75% was fleeting -- that was a key support level, so the market comfortably vaulted past 3% on employment gains that were more than expected. These moves have now resulted in the market dangling at a critical juncture which I will try to address via the three best Elliott wave counts I have conjured up (the right to be wrong is exclusively mine, and so is the right to adapt quickly to what the market might be doing regardless of what I think it should do) given the presently available evidence. All three counts start from the July 2021 lows -- the count from the 2020 crash lows of 0.34% has not been used for the sake of this analysis (which suggests the bull market in yields has much longer and higher to go) but that's a separate discussion altogether. Primary Count: Long term trend in yields higher and is very much intact, but more sideways churn is expected within a RUNNING TRIANGLE before a surge: Requirement: 2.75% must hold for this to be valid labelling Alternate count #1: Long term higher, but one dip below 2.75% is needed to meet the minimum requirements for w((4)) to end Requirement: One more dip before a larger degree 5th wave targets 3.50% and higher; 2.75% can be broken or at the least, retested Link: Alternate count # 2: More aggressive count that suggests higher immediately, longer-term higher yields play Requirement: 2.75% cannot be broken from here, not even by a tick as per the rules of the wave principle for an impulse Link: Conclusion: Regardless of which wave count is in play - we will know that as we have more information appearing from the right of the chart, the impulse up in yields is anything but done. Perhaps, inflation will remain sticky longer than the consensus view is. -- Guest Contributor at the @CMTAssociation
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
12
WTI -5/7/2022-• April-June period prices were contained inside an ascending channel • After peaking in June, prices broke the channel support and started trading inside a bearish descending trend line • Long term support trend line holding since Dec 2021 still intact • As the worldwide economic picture is worsening, outlook is slowly turning negative for the oil's demand • Bears are targeting trend line support, today at 104 • Below 104, next target is 100 psychological figure
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Reviewing Trends and their behavior during RecessionsWhile retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276. An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
WOW RIGHT ONCE AGAINWe have been seeing crazy trading success lately! SPY and the general etf and index market alone have been showing some struggle all day long. Today just market a huge double top on every time frame under the daily. This is crazy! This is confirmed by an ascending wedge pattern that looks beautiful on the hourly and 30-minute chart. If this isn't a double top, then this is a cup and handle. Half the base to the handle is 8.25 up from the peak putting our estimates at 381.87 a previous support. GOOD LUCK BYE BYE MARKET>
AMEX:SPYShort
by haydencrann
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low. However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III. BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go. GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish. Not trading advice.
AMEX:GDXLong
by xtremerider8
$SPX breaking downtrendS&P 500 index looks to be finding its footing. It just broke through the 20-day moving average with gusto. The 20-day MA is a good gauge for shorter-term momentum. This all hangs on being able to hold above the 20-day MA, if so, the next test will be at 3,978, which is approximately right where the downtrend line and the 50-day moving average meet. If it can break through this downtrend line and hold above it while making higher highs, we could be saying bye-bye to this bear market. Oddly enough this is also right where the gap that is yet to be filled is. Those of you that don't think stocks can do well during a recession have not read your history books or done your due diligence. I am not in the recession camp though. I am in the "definition for recession is no longer relevant in today's financial world" camp. Yes, based on the old technical textbook definition, 2 negative GDP quarters in a row=recession. I think we are going to still have the next roaring 20s, I'd put my money on a rally/rage into the end of the year then an economic boom when some of the macro and geopolitical bugaboos get solved with time. Happy to discuss and answer questions. Thanks, Tiger
SP:SPXLong
by EBITDAtiger
1
EURCHF breaks below parity. A further drop expectedThe last time this pair dropped below parity, investors chose the CHF over the Euro. However, the SNB was worried about the deflationary aspects of such a move and acted to reverse the move. This time, the fundamentals are more or less the same or different depending on how you interpret it. The Euro zone investors are worried about the block tipping into a recession due to high energy costs. In Germany, for example, regulators have warned that entire industries could come to a halt should Russia fail to reopen the Nordstream 1 pipeline gas flows. The Yamal pipeline has also seen huge drops in gas supplies. With this in mind for Euro fundamentals, the question remains whether the SNB is going to do anything. A stronger CHF is definitely going to the reduce inflationary pressures for Switzerland. In my opinion, I expect the pair to head lower toward the Jan '15 bottom. Risks to trade Historically, strong moves in one direction tend to reverse with similar momentum. The EURO - SWISS bond yield spreads show that the downward move may not be sustainable since FX tends to move in lockstep to spreads The SNB raised rates by a whooping 50bps for the first time in a long time. In typical fashion, Swiss bond yields jumped, some out of negative territory. However, the yields have retraced most of their earlier moves. This may imply that the markets are pricing that the SNB will not raise rates as much in the face of a recession in Europe. This might reduce the strength of the CHF with weakness showing up in the USDCHF. PS: I already have an open position ( This is not trading advice) With that in consideration, I'll be short the Euro for Q3.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee