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Recession

US2000 Selloff | Small Caps Looking FrailLot's going on in this picture, my apologies for all the noise. Consistent with the overall market and recently published indexes, I am looking for more downside in US Domestic small-cap stocks. If you thought or if you were influenced that this inflation bubble economy would persist forever, I advise you consider a different source of information. "Do your own research" does NOT mean, go find something that agrees with your preferences. Rather, #DYOR as the kids say, is an opportunity for individuals and teams alike to look deep within themselves and ask if they have what it takes to achieve: honesty, humility, and truth.
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by ChiefMacro
Thats two lower highs for NVDA...What is next??? NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:VIX NVDA: A Looming Breakout or Breakdown? Nvidia (NVDA) has been on a rollercoaster ride lately, with its stock price exhibiting significant volatility. The recent formation of a lower high and a potential lower low suggests a downward trend may be in the works. A key support level lies around $98, marked by trendline support that held firm on February 21, April 22, and August 5. If NVDA breaches this level, it could signal a short-term reversal of the uptrend. Analyzing the 30-minute timeframe, we see a recent break below a bearish pennant, indicating further downside potential. If this bearish scenario unfolds, a price target of $85-90 seems plausible. Interestingly, this price target aligns almost perfectly with NVDA's 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the stock does indeed reach this level, it could present a compelling buying opportunity. However, the broader market may face challenges if NVDA's downward trajectory continues. Recent economic data, such as weaker job openings and rising unemployment, suggests a deeper market correction might be on the horizon. While the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting, a larger-than-expected reduction could trigger market panic. The next few months promise to be exciting, and this period can offer opportunities for significant wealth creation. For now, I'm waiting on the sidelines, patiently observing the market's dynamics. Remember, Warren Buffett's recent moves are a testament to the importance of following the market's trends rather than blindly fighting against them.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Average_Joe_Options
Mortgage Delinquencies About to Skyrocket"Financial Advisors" tend to be clueless about the overall health of the market and the economy. The "advisor" profession is laced with toxic narratives about "your goals" and "focusing on the long term" and "staying invested". They're clueless as to what is going on. As the recession sets in and the market collapses, we will see mortgage delinquencies soar. Remain patient, refrain from buying ANYTHING with a debt component (ie homes / cars). We will soon see a credit freeze, as banks and lenders dump their assets and borrowers fail to meet their loan covenants. This is the real deal, folks. Stay low and move fast!
FRED:DRSFRMACBSLong
by ChiefMacro
Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
S&P 500 ($SPY) COLLAPSE | Recession Alert!!Behold, devastation just up ahead. $2500 is probable in the S&P. Retirements are about to be wiped out. As a friendly reminder, the "401K is free money" narrative is going to evaporate. The media will soon be out in full force talking about: "stay the course" "remember your goals" "stay invested" "LFG" "buy the dip" So foolish. If you are trapped in a retirement fund (401K), the best thing you can do right now is get defensive. Sell ALL "growth stocks" and shift all of your wealth into cash and / or bonds. Be careful out there, everyone! Something major is happening on a global scale!
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
9
RECESSION ALERT | Total Vehicle Sales Data Print DelayedWith last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes). Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH?? Total vehicle sales are a leading economic indicator. I’m guessing the numbers are bad.. really bad. In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, vehicle sales collapsed in August (in August 2024). The absence of today's scheduled print is a choice. Someone decided that Total Vehicle Sales (for the month of August 2024) would not be released as scheduled. In addition to illustrating the obvious failures of the current US political administration, this is also a strong indicator that Tesla ( the entire green new scam ) is on the verge of bankruptcy. I will explain this in more detail later.
FRED:TOTALSA
by ChiefMacro
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
BTC will continue to increase forever, but not in the short term COINBASE:BTCUSD , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:COIN , AMEX:HODL , AMEX:ARKB NASDAQ:IBIT , AMEX:GBTC The Long-Term Bullish Case The fundamental argument for Bitcoin's long-term bullishness remains strong. The US Dollar, as the world's reserve currency, has been steadily losing value over time due to excessive government spending and quantitative easing. This inflationary environment creates an ideal backdrop for Bitcoin, which is designed to be a deflationary asset with a limited supply. As investors seek to protect their wealth from inflation, Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value becomes increasingly compelling. Increased Institutional Investment One of the most significant developments in the cryptocurrency market has been the growing interest from institutional investors. These large financial institutions, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and asset managers, have the potential to significantly impact Bitcoin's price and volatility. As more institutions allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, several positive effects can be expected: Decreased Volatility: Institutional investors tend to be more patient and less prone to panic selling than individual investors. Their long-term investment horizons and sophisticated risk management strategies can help to stabilize Bitcoin's price and reduce volatility. Improved Store of Value: Increased institutional adoption can enhance Bitcoin's reputation as a reliable store of value. As more mainstream financial institutions recognize Bitcoin's potential, it is likely to become a more widely accepted asset, which could boost its price and strengthen its position as a hedge against inflation. Increased Liquidity: Institutional participation can increase the liquidity of the Bitcoin market, making it easier for investors to buy and sell the cryptocurrency without significantly impacting its price. This can further contribute to price stability and reduce volatility. While the fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin's long-term bullish case remain strong, the technical analysis suggests a short-term bearish trend may be in play. Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending channel, a technical pattern that indicates a potential downtrend. This negative channel is formed by two downward-sloping lines that constrain the price action. As long as Bitcoin remains within this channel, there is a risk of further price declines. Additionally, a bearish crossover has occurred between Bitcoin's 100-day and 50-day moving averages and the 200-day moving average. This technical indicator is often used to identify potential trend reversals. When the shorter-term moving averages (100-day and 50-day) cross below the longer-term moving average (200-day), it is generally considered a negative signal, suggesting that the price may be heading lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Average_Joe_Options
$USINTR / US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025 And here’s the chart of the interest rate. ECONOMICS:USINTR I’ll just take a wild guess! Don’t judge me too harshly, but they might keep the rate steady, with a potential cut closer to the elections. Logically, though, it would make more sense to cut it now, so the masses think there’s no recession coming and that the “Democrats” are saving the world like Chip and Dale. But people seem to forget that it’s the Democrats who’ve hiked the rate from 0.25% to 5.5% over the past four years, putting the economy in its worst shape in the last 15 years. Getting excited about these 0.25-0.5 point cuts is, at the very least, naive. So, at the November meeting, most likely just before the elections, we might see a “boost”—a rate cut of 0.5, or even a whole point (wishful thinking). This could lead to another spike in Bitcoin’s price. These thoughts lead me to believe that the Democrats (Kamala Harris) will win, followed by one more meeting in December, where they might hold or lower the rate again with the new U.S. president in place. And by late January 2025, the world might plunge into chaos, oops—I mean the rates will start climbing again. The next cut might not come until 2026. That’s why I’d expect the recession we’ve been hearing about for over two and a half years to finally kick in. Just my two cents!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by trushkovskiy
Yield Curve Inversion: A Warning Sign You Can't IgnoreThe yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means higher required interest on bonds. As seen on the chart, the moment that the yield-curve "un-inverts" (yellow circles) is a critical market indicator that can often predict upcoming recessions. In the last 35 years, the un-inversion has always preceded a dump in stock prices and a recession. Seeing this chart, it's not too far-fetched to assume that the world will go into a recession at some point in the next 1-2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by FieryTrading
4
RECESSION ALERT - Homebuilders WAY Overbought | SHORT $KBHLeverage. It's a beautiful thing. There is not much to say about this one, the chart speaks for itself. Brief Disclaimer: this chart has evaded me - I personally think it should have corrected awhile ago (see grey arrows). Nonetheless, I never bought it... WHY?: The economy is now well into a recession (has been for at least a year). For whatever reason this thing was bought into the stratosphere. Now comes profit-taking and the COLLAPSE! This baby is going DEEP! Thank you for playing. 💀💀💀
NYSE:KBHShort
by ChiefMacro
2
Disney About to Give it Up! | $DIS SHORTLooks like the moment of truth for Mickey & Co. I have been covering this one for a long time, with numerous mentions that Disney is a sell / short. How low this thing will go, we do not know. Right now I am comfortable saying, -50% is probable. While there are many factors in play, the broader economy is weak and Disney has done nothing but push people away with their radical political positions. Additionally, the destruction of "woke" mob is unfolding before our eyes. Short Disney. Make Money. If this changes, I will update.
NYSE:DISShort
by ChiefMacro
4
Knock Knock. Who's There? Vibecession Ft. US Interest RatesHello Everyone, IMPORTANT: ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES TLDR AT THE END In February 2022 the Federal Reserve gave us the fastest rate raising campaign in history to try and combat very high inflation, but they were very late in raising rates causing one of the worst inflation in 40 years. During his speech at Jackson Hole he confirms rate cuts in September due to inflation being under control and the labor market "cooling." Good news is inflation is under control, however this is only the start of our labor market "cooling." Jerome Powell is extremely late in cutting rates and will be cutting rates because we are getting BAD economic data and the cracks are showing in our labor market, commercial real estate, and banking sectors. The Federal Reserve 100% KNOWS a recession is coming that is why they are cutting rates. We have Jerome Powell come up on stage sweet talk to us about a soft landing, inflation under control, and how he will cut rates to help the labor market. He's not going to be instilling fear in Americans as a chairman. Just Remember, ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES. Recession is coming, Sahm rule and inverted yield curve hasn't been wrong and it won't be wrong this time. This time it's not different. TLDR: Jerome Powell is too late in cutting rates causing a recession
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by justaturboman44
1
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
FRED:UNRATE
by justaturboman44