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Recession

📉 S&P 500 MARKET DISCOUNTS RECESSIONS InvestMate 📉📉 Will the S&P500 Fall into the 3210-3110 zone? Is the market discounting recessions. 📉 In today's post we will look at the S&P500 index, which, in my opinion, after the end of last week and the formation of the candlestick formation of the falling star, informs us of the possibility of a drop into the levels of 3210-3110, which are determined by 2 measurements of the fibo grid, the first from the covidian bottom to the peak and the second the largest correction in the downtrend. Also corrections they are the ones of the largest downward impulse. 📉 Also paying attention to the 3 most important indicators, namely MACD, STOCH, RSI There are no signals of strength but weakness. 📉 MACD SIGNAL LINE is below the 0 line, which is an obvious signal of a long-term downtrend. 📉 STOCH has already fallen below the 20% oversold zone, which is an obvious prohibition to look for any upward positions. 📉 Also, the RSI has been below the 50 line, or trend line, for quite some time. 📉 What provokes the market to fall? 📉 📉 It is impossible to ignore the most important issue, which is the policy of the FED which, in order to fight inflation, increases interest rates, as a result of which credit becomes more expensive and major companies avoid large investments. 📉 On the horizon we see more interest rate hikes, which of course have a negative impact on the market. 📉 We are also facing a season of third-quarter results that include the country's four largest banks in terms of assets. Which are likely to lead to declines in earnings and disappointment for investors, which could contribute to another downward momentum. 📉 Also on the calendar we have U.S. producer price data on wednesday and the consumer price data report on thursday. These are two of the most important events this week that will have an impact on the future shape of the Fed's monetary policy 📉 In September, the central bank lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to just 0.2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. 📉 Looking at all these arguments, I would encourage you to watch this index in the coming days, weeks 🚀 If you like my analysis leave a like and follow my profile 🚀
VELOCITY:US500Short
by InvestMate
1
What's next for DXY? Based on the potential 2013 cycle and fed balance sheet - anticipation is that dxy should sideway to avoid extremes - - we can't move down as we have inflation and we can't move agressively a lot more up as we will kill the markets. Dxy should stay within the projected range with slight downish bias for the next few weeks - but first emaflow entries will produce a buy signal which likely causes a test upwards which will reject and take us lower near the bottom of the green zone. Highly suggest to check as it includes all the charts that explain the mindset behind this.
TVC:DXY
by EMAflow
7
SPX - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING ??Hey traders, Looking at the chart thanks to the Elliott Waves analysis, I am able to have one of my plan to find a bullish rally in this bear market. It has a lot of probability that it will arrive in order to do the orange X of the WXY of the blue Y . It will be done when the orange W will touch the 50% of Fibonnacci retracement of the entire bullish trend from the march 2020. The objectives are therefore: 1/ 3530-3480 (most probable before a massive bounce) 2/ 3442-3387 3/ 3322-3272 4/ 3230-3185 In my opinion, it is therefore possible that we will be ending this year on this bull rally, before dropping for the orange Y in the first months of 2023. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by ModTrades
ETH - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING?? Hey traders, Thanks to the legendary Elliott Waves theory, I am able to visualize a plan that could tell us that in the incoming weeks we could find a very bullish momentum. Stick with me for more updates of the incoming rally. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FTX:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
1
Possible S&P500 bottom, and wealth redistributionTechnical: S&p500 holding critical support (yellow ema), a possible bottom will be 503EMA or circle marked in the chart, if Williams AO does its crossover, prepare for vacation. Fundamental: Rate hikes are the least of the worries, everything seems bearish. The only hints of hope are the US unemployment rate below 4% (somehow low), and the Ukraine war. NATO and US were in decadence before it and Putin fell in their trap invading an useless country geopolitically speaking. Us is redefining it's status quo by making another war, but this time they're not fighting it directly, will be that cheaper or expensive? Opinion: Every TV clown educator has been posting their bearish bias and i won't be the exception, everybody is right when markets are trending (bullish or bearish), the only thing they don't know it's where the bottom (or top) is, they will keep selling useless trading signals, but the thing is there won't be business anymore, the golden era of scamming people is over, at least for now and for the next years, even brokers (market makers) are facing financial issues and we'll see bankruptcy so it would be a great idea cashing out your assets if you don't want to lose it all. It will be a great depression tier freefall, a chud's and a poljack wet dream. But it won't be like that neither. The water they're storing will end mouldy, the ammo dusty they will use just one bullet ;) and the shinny rocks seized or buried somewhere in the dirt. An anarchist dystopia is unrealistic in a country like the US or any west one, worse things happens in third world countries on a daily basis and even so, people manage it to live their lives almost on a normal way but they're too dumb to realize, they are so used to their consumist way of living they think the world ends when they won't find their favorite snacks on a Wal-Mart or any supermarket. Will be a hard time for US citizens, but what's surprising me is how people are realizing now we are in a recession we were already years ago, the signals were pretty obvious: inflation, expensive housing, lots of homeless in top tier cities, r****ds and illiterate people making millions (WSB, Crypto, meme stocks). Will be a healthy recession and a healthy wealth redistribution to the smart hands.
SP:SPXShort
by truenacuerdas92
SPX500 is trying to find a bottomIn my opinion the market is trying to find a bottom. How far it will go down, Im not sure, but anything lower that 3450-ish, will take market to very oversold territory. Everyone is waiting for Thursday’s CPI, depending on the result this can go either way: 1. Inflation is rising - this means FED will be rise rates by 0.75 in November, strong move downside, but then it to go to oversold territory and we might stay there few days before slow recovery starts. I dont believe the earning season takes market above 4000. More realisticaly 3900-3950. 2. Inflation is going down- rising rates start to do the job, FED might slow down next month but we’re not out of the woods yet. Economies already slowed down, we might see recovery on the markets and USD to cool off a little. The only difference between 1 and 2 is when we start the recovery- this or next week. If you look at the VIX, it is pretty high, over 30. On a brick of being overbought. That makes me believe we can see some green candles in the next few weeks but after that I expect very red November. I can be wrong, the markets are unpredictable so dont treat it as trading advice. Im not a professional trader but I’ve been following indices closely in the last few months. Always do your own analisys
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trinnisia_Trades
Shorting EUR again, now on the pullback.The euro, as well as all its correlated currencies and related products, crossed critical support levels a few weeks ago and right now is in a pullback within the mid-term downtrend. The mid- and long-term trend are in phase 4 (bearish), and the RSI on the monthly chart is 23.32, which make it unreasonable to hold it. After our shorts and currency strategies a few weeks ago, right now we are 50% in EUR and 50% in USD (take into account we are, mostly, European based), but we will advance everything to USD to follow the trends of the world economy and the recession in the next months. Trade: Financial engineering: cash, not derivatives. Time horizon: >6 months. Risk mgmt: +20% of our treasury Exits: We do not contemplate exits for now, but we are active quant traders and monitor the market daily.
Short
by blockmas
US30 - More Room To Drop! 🩸US30 hasn't finished its bearish leg. According to our analysis, we are still in wave C of the major ABC correction. Wave C has 5 waves are we are currently on the 3rd wave (which is also made up of 5 subwaves) For this trade idea, we require some time for the subwave 4 to appear, which will look like a correction. Once we see this correction, we can use a simple trendline and watch for it to break and enter accordingly. Trade idea: - Watch for subwave 4 correction to appear - Draw a trendline for this correction - Entry: break of trendline - SL: above price once the trendline breaks Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
FX:US30
by WicktatorFX
5
Fixed and Basic Income During Recessionary TimesThe talk of economists these days seem to be "Cash is King" (esp USD) vs "Cash is Trash". While it's true that a lot of people are liquidating their assets now in favor of dollars, given that our economies are interconnected more now than ever before, this might only last for a very short period of time. While the market is likely to go into panic mode soon (the top-earners are finally getting a *tiny* taste of what people below them have been going through for years) it might help to take a step back and look at the bigger picture since most of the problems with the economy right now are existential, not technical. Sort of a throwback to my #YangGang days with Andrew Yang, but UBI would have been pretty nice to have right about now. Yes, UBI does help alleviate poverty, but it also helps stabilize economies and labor markets during difficult transitions as well - that's what it was designed to do originally, and it is a brilliant idea that is literally good for *everyone*. As stock/asset prices start to plummet, everyone is talking about moving their money to "fixed-income" sources now, to help stop the "bleeding". One of the silver linings of the recession is that there seems to be higher demand for labor, which could potentially increase wages and stabilize the economy that way - but people do need time to adjust and learn new skills to find new work. UBI does both in a simple and elegant way. One of the big criticisms of UBI was that it would cause inflation since it would bring up the costs of everything. It's ironic to see how inflation became the talk of the town now despite the opposition coming from both sides of the political spectrum. Purchasing power is relative - the way to look at UBI from a budgeting standpoint is that you're dedicating a % of your total funds toward stabilizing the economy, which - again - should be good for everyone. Hindsight is 20/20 and unfortunately we're now forced to work with what we did (and didn't) do thus far. Many economists - including major ones - have been eyeing cryptocurrencies as a potential "safe haven" during the market crash that's likely to continue well into 2023-24. How likely is it for people to turn to crypto during trying times? Staking rewards are currently outperforming bank interest rates and may become more appealing over time, while crypto projects based around the concept of UBI may start to gain favor as the top-earners realize that these models are in their own interest, too. (It's a big *if*, but UBI-tokens might be the thing that ETH needs to revive its lackluster performance post-merge, imho.) Most investors are running towards cash for safety now but if that fails too, there will be no options left. That's when crypto may finally see its day - time will tell. www.theguardian.com
ULong
by RyanTanaka
NIFTY 50 NOT IN RECESSION!! DETAILED ANALYSISi have used a great colour to present my analysis. so please go through the colours carefully. INDIA is clearly not in recession, this makes us to understand its bottom point. lets start: THE TWO BLUE LINES: represents the trend followed by NIFTY post corona's bull run. and through drawing the PURPLE LINE, i have marked the bottom, and its area(sorry for the bad drawings :p) i had followed the analysis by describing how that point i have marked is the recession point. have a look at ORANGE LINE, its the bull run trend. after the bull run completed markets have consolidated(THE ORANGE CIRCLE) FII entering in INDIAN markets made nifty to rise a more(till the orange circle) DEFINING more about, THE ORANGE LINE, past from 23rd march till 12th April, nifty was on left side of the orange line, after that it came to other side. just a short observation of saying bull run got completed. (arrows are drawn have a good look). THE TWO GREEN LINES are the support lines. now have a look at THE PURPLE ARCS. INDIA was not in a recession from the start so, it has just touched its support line, and never entered in recession. the same situation is now too. check, THE DARK BLACK LINE, its the support line(which is supported many a times). FINALLY, i conclude my analysis, where i have described how and where nifty 50 is in its position. i will post soon about its further trend lines(resistance and support).. stay connected!!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI: Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI has no room to be in Extended Range any longer. With Stocks and inflational products keeps going lower. Dollar domination is just getting stronger and VIX is still supressed relative to history. All this is about the breakout to the upside. Oil will reach 65 WTI price this month because of producers price is at 65. This price will get consumer back in rough times. Consumer spending in oil/gas is at lowest level. Remember supply and demand. Oil has been trading in static trading range, meaning oil price will go lower in time not higher. There is too much oil stored and prices are just pumped by inflation and war. Everything that has inflational status will go down hard still. See 50-70% drop still in stockmarket and so with energy prices. 10x natural gas is not sustainable either. Be ware and take care. Best Regards R.B
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PivotX
3
S&P and DJIA bearish flag to come?Stock market has still stayed in a bearish market structure. Observing multiple bull rallies throughout since February/March 2022. And bull rallies will continue so long as market sentiment continues to expect a more negative month/quarter than it actually is, although still in a decline versus previous month/quarter. We can tell bearish market sentiment from the recent economic data releases where: Forecast < Actual < Previous Forecast is lower than the actuals, and actuals being lower than previous We are in a decline, but expectations were that of a faster decline which is not happening. The economy remains resilient, and this will mean the FED needs to do more to hamper down on inflation. Expecting more aggressive rate hikes, where on the announcements, stock market is expected to make a move lower.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
Bank of England Emergency Bond PurchaseLast week, UK pension funds, which hold highly leveraged bond derivative positions, were facing a nearly $1 trillion loss as bond prices crashed and yields rose. The crash in the bond market has been underway for years, but the tipping point occurred when the UK prime minister pledged to cut taxes at a time when inflation is soaring into the double digits. Cutting taxes worsens inflation because less taxes means consumers have more money to spend on inflating goods. Cutting taxes while inflation is high therefore risks worsening inflation or inducing hyperinflation. Fear of this caused the price of UK bonds to crash and yields to spike. (As many of you know well, bond prices move down when yields rise). This crash caused pension funds with highly leveraged bond positions to experience amplified losses, which caused these funds to need to put up more cash collateral on their losing positions. This could have caused a downward spiral because these funds may have had to sell bonds to raise more cash, which would have had a negative feedback loop that could have sent prices down further, amplifying losses more, and creating the need to raise even more cash collateral. The Bank of England had to make an emergency purchase of bonds. However, by purchasing bonds, the Bank of England has taken an action that will now make inflation worse (there will be a lag effect). Whenever a central bank purchases bonds, it is adding liquidity to the system (when the central bank buys bonds this has the effect of increasing the money supply). Increasing the money supply when inflation is at a multi-decade high is super risky. At best it could risk inflation staying elevated for longer, at worst it could spiral into hyperinflation. In the chart above, reproduced below, you can see that when priced in the British pound, crude oil prices are barely declining (as we would have expected from all the rate hikes). If anything, crude oil is looking poised to increase further. The Bank of England, and other central banks, are trapped. Until they stop monetary easing (adding to the money supply) and tighten the money supply such that rates are higher than core inflation, inflation will continue to get worse. Yet, as we now see in the UK, central banks cannot tighten the money supply sufficiently to accomplish this without causing a financial crisis. The rapidity with which the Bank of England switched back on the money printer, despite double-digit inflation, has me convinced that central banks will choose the hyperinflation route. In fact, hyperinflation is already happening in some countries. Argentina has hiked rates to 75% (not 75 bps, 75% or 7,500 bps) and yet inflation continues to spiral higher. There is actually no limit to how bad inflation can get. When people need to pay $100 trillion dollars for food, as in Zimbabwe in 2008, people usually stop believing that central bank fiat notes are valuable and the system collapses. Look at the chart below. I did not log-adjust the chart so that you can see that hyperinflation is when commodity prices rise exponentially over time. For the chart, I used the Invesco Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) and priced it in Argentine pesos. I used cross plots on a smoothened moving average. This level of hyperinflation always leads to some kind of crisis. Either interest rates must crush demand and cause economic decline, or hyperinflation eventually causes a monetary crisis whereby people stop using the currency altogether. Commodity hyperinflation also leads to political instability and the rise of fascist or communist dictators. Furthermore, when these crises occur on a global scale, they can precipitate conflict, and conflict in turn can worsen commodity shortages. For those who have been thinking that inflation has peaked globally, there is no chart that I have seen which validates that conclusion. Indeed, as shown in the chart below, commodity prices continue to break record highs in some parts of the world. In most currencies, commodity prices appear to be bull flagging. Compare the below two charts. One shows how commodity prices continue to spiral higher in Argentina, despite the central bank hiking rates all the way to 75%, compared to 2008, when commodity prices fell while the central bank raised interest rates to just 12%. This shows that we are dealing with a much more dangerous type of inflation. I posted these figures to show just how bad inflation can get and the risks associated with monetary easing. Many people are believing the pig-in-a-python theory, where they think inflation is transitory and will improve when the massive COVID stimulus passes through the pipeline. However, what they fail to realize is that central banks have been putting an endless stream of pigs in the python for decades through monetary easing. Economies have become totally dependent on monetary easing and central banks are now trapped in needing to maintain it. Yet, if central banks continue monetary easing, inflation cannot come down. It just keeps spiraling higher so long as monetary easing continues, assuming commodity shortages also continue. Commodity shortages are deep-rooted and are due in part to war, deglobalization, aging and less productive populations, and climate change to name several factors. Monetary policy has little efficacy on these supply issues. Sri Lanka was the canary in the coal mine. It was the first central government to fall due to commodity hyperinflation. And yet, even after a central government collapse, commodity prices in Sri Lanka are still high. The chart below shows that commodities appear to be bull-flagging, and poised to go higher. Core inflation which is typically stable in the United States is now exploding to a 40-year high. If the Federal Reserve is to be successful at hiking rates to quell inflation, it must hike rates above the core inflation level. There is virtually no central bank with an interest rate higher than core inflation. Indeed, Japan continues to maintain negative interest rates. As I noted in a prior post, because negative interest rates incentivize the creation of money through credit, negative interest rates reflect limitless growth of the money supply. However, as alluded to above, the Fed is trapped. It must hike rates above core inflation, but it also cannot hike rates above core inflation. Decades of monetary easing have left a highly leveraged economy totally reliant on low interest rates. Hiking rates as far as would be needed to quell inflation would likely lead to an economic depression. Pension funds are already under tremendous strain from the hiking and yet the charts show that the scope of tightening that will be necessary is not even in sight yet. The best-case scenario is that commodity supplies improve and demand softens enough to stabilize rates but not so much that economies decline significantly. Even in this perfect mitigation scenario, stock market returns are likely to be muted for years to come.
TVC:UKOIL
by SpyMasterTrades
65
The End of the Deflationary Asset EraDeflationary assets - aka artificial scarcity - is a product of the mediocre mind. Exponential growth and real social progress comes from the idea of "growing the pie". It's weird how people don't use that phrase anymore since it has become such a foreign concept at this point. Bitcoin  (and now Ethereum), NFTs, real-estate (both IRL and the metaverse), healthcare, education, and the economy as a whole has succumbed to the "scarcity mindset" and is in danger of collapsing on itself since it doesn't know how to grow its ecosystem from its base. Those mythical 100000x returns doesn't come from flipping or nickle-and-diming individuals but from growing the ecosystem as a whole. To keep the good times going, the response should be to increase capacity, not try to ration out your existing stock. Ethereum was particularly disappointing to watch this year because they had the capability to be so much more but chose the mediocre path when they started burning their own supply. Like Bitcoin, they put an expiration date on themselves and can now only expect modest returns from here on out. To be fair, "growing the pie" is very difficult and requires a higher degree of creativity and ability to spot new win-win scenarios from seemingly thin air. But that's why we have geniuses and entrepreneurs to fill that role that typical biz-dev types are unable to do. As the scarcity economies continues to do what it does - shrink - it's unfortunately going to take innocent bystanders with them. We're going to find that most of our tax dollars have been working to keep the illusion of sustainability rather than of real growth. But the silver lining is that as the status quo continues to implode on itself, the opportunity to grow the pie once again becomes possible. It's a cycle that has happened before and will happen again. With that, it's at least possible to navigate through the chaos. Good luck, folks. 🤞
BITFINEX:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
Recession Probability Outcome heres my chart im going be posting and looking at over the next year something that will be on everybodys mind come election and new year-- how to tackle inflation and recession--- probabilities. I am neutral for which I dont have many indicators that will work with this i dont believe so I will have to do some searching on google- for some examples of indicators and write my own with this--- on the second chart I post for this exchange. Recession probabilities. The base or starting line--for this project--will be adjusted and watched with due diligence. We will adjust and continue working with this project as months progress into the future.
FRED:RECPROUSM156NLong
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd