DANGER FOR US30!!!!! BIG SELL OFF APPROACHING! RECESSIONOn this chart you can see major signs of a sell off if you are using the Wyckoff Distribution method. In fact if you pull up BTC in 2021 at its all time high you will see that the chart is IDENTICAL. Listed are the descending lines of supply and the final Buy up line that will complete the rest of the demand the market has to offer. With confluence of the Fed meeting next week, we also see a huge volume divergence where the price has marked up drastically but there has been a mojor decline in volume; this indicates that there are fewer buyers jumping into calls at higher prices (in other words retail traders). Look for US30 to drop well to the previous local bottom and maybe even to pandemic lows.
Recession
XAU/USD Technical AnalysisHello Traders!
What do you see on this chart and what are your expectation and interpretation of what you see?
What i see on a 4 hour chart is the following: we hit the resistance level on 15th November after which we proceeded to the pullback action where we stopped at 1732.5. 1809.6 is our latest local resistance level which we reached and made a double top and continued to the downside.
for it to keep on the bullish trajectory i expect it to close below 1786.7 and possibly expect a fake-out on 1809 level.
🟨 SP500 Declines - BEFORE Recession[bBACKGROUND
In previous idea I showed that it is very significant if we are going to get recession or not.
Link here:
WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
Here we look at what % decline did the SP500 experience BEFORE the start of a recession*.
HOW TO USE IT
We see that the average decline is -6%, HOWEVER we are currently already at -25%.
This indicates that the current market environment has already discounted quite a lot, even if there is a recession. Remember market is forward looking mechanism. Meaning things might not get VERY ugly even if there is a recession.
However, in the previous idea we saw that the average decline of a Bear market that coincides with a recession is -34.6%, meaning that ON AVERAGE, EVEN IF we get a Recession we can expect about a 10% decline from the current levels, but a lot has been discounted before the decline.
LEGEND
*Percent decline from SP500 monthly closing cycle high to the month "before" a recession begins.
🟥 Red lines indicate the start of a recession.
Epic Fail of Bitcoin in logarithmic Regression [Weekly]Hi everyone,
There has been many references to the weekly logarithmic regression of Bitcoin that claimed it never failed from the time of its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. it has been promoted on social media for a long time by serious advocates such as PlanB or many others on twitter.
But as you can see on the chart, in November of 2022 the logarithmic regression failed to support the price for the first time in Bitcoin history.
Bitcoin is relatively a new class of asset in comparison with Gold for instance and I believe one should be very cautious with it in regard to its short history, especially in times of a possible recession.
FYI, Logarithmic regression is a type of regression used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. more in-depth elaboration of its math and logic is available at : heartbeat.comet.ml
Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions.
Good luck!
The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year.
Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak .
To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve.
This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen?
The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system.
Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds.
The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms.
So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower.
In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead.
According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967.
There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries.
But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices.
This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
SPX Death Cross Incoming - RECESSIONSPX Death Cross Incoming
On the left, you can see our current financial year.
On the right, 2008-09 recession.
If we consider that it's going to happen exactly similar, then the bottom will be in Sept, 2023.
Somewhere in May, 2023 we will be able to see a death cross on the SPX chart.
Let's see how it goes. Let me know what you all think.
Oil Prices Struggle amid Growing Recession Fears and Fed HikesEarlier today, oil prices were on the rise after the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. However, this rally was quickly wiped out as sellers attacked the market, pushing prices even lower. The oil market has been struggling due to growing concerns about a potential recession and the belief that central banks have tightened monetary policy too much.
This fall in oil prices has also had the side effect of reversing inflation, which can be seen as a positive for central banks. Despite this, there is some support for oil prices at the $70 level, as this is when the White House talked about refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Overall, the outlook for the oil market remains uncertain, with concerns about a potential recession and the actions of central banks continuing to weigh on prices. However, some analysts believe that a relief rally is still possible in the coming days and weeks, as the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline and other factors could provide support for oil prices.
Jargon Explained
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a reserve of crude oil stored by the United States government in underground salt caverns. The SPR was created in response to the oil embargo of the 1970s, and its purpose is to provide a emergency supply of crude oil that can be quickly released onto the market in the event of a supply disruption.
Keystone Pipeline
The Keystone pipeline is a system of oil pipelines that transport crude oil from Canada to refineries in the United States. The pipeline system consists of two phases: the first carries oil from the oil sands of Alberta, Canada to refineries in Illinois and Oklahoma, while the second phase, known as Keystone XL, would carry oil from Alberta to refineries on the Gulf Coast of Texas. The Keystone pipeline has been the subject of controversy, with opponents arguing that it poses risks to the environment and to local communities.
Fall of USD as Global Reserve CurrencyIf you give someone a button to print money, they will press it
1,400 years ago the Roman republic inflated its currency until its empire collapsed
USD used to be backed by gold, but that ended in 1971
This allowed governments to print endless money
Hyperinflation is just a matter of time
The US government learned to overspend and print the difference
The debt is now $31 trillion and $100 trillion in liabilities
The only way out is printing more money
But destroying the savings and hard-earned tax money of citizens
Global reserve currencies change every 90 years
So, Monetary Switch is inevitable
Checkout Venezuela's 2013- mid-2020 Inflation data
The paper that is used to print a dollar is not actually worth a dollar.
The paper does not have value, it simply represents the value. It is not money because it holds no individual value.
To take it a step further, dollars are actually the OPPOSITE of value.
Dollars are debt. A dollar is a PROMISE to pay back debt. The U.S. is over a trillion dollars in debt. A trillion is “1” followed by 12 zeros. It’s a thousand billion. A trillion seconds is 32,000 years. A stack of $1 bills would be 68,000 miles high. So how do we pay back such monumental debt?
Taxes. It’s painful, but it’s obvious.
So, the dollar is the PROMISE of the U.S. government to pay back over a trillion dollars of debt by taxing its citizens. And, to kick you while you are down, the debt is still growing.
The dollar is actually debt.
That is why the smart rich don’t work for dollars, they work for assets like BTC and GOLD
Thank You for Reading. Like and Share!
Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for the Federal ReserveIn recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s.
An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This can be a cause for concern because it can indicate that investors are expecting economic growth to slow in the future. When investors expect the economy to slow, they are less likely to lend money for long periods of time, leading to higher interest rates on short-term bonds and lower interest rates on long-term bonds.
The current yield curve inversion has many experts worried. In the past, an inverted yield curve has often been a reliable predictor of a recession. In fact, every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.
One reason for the current inversion may be the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates several times in recent years in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating. However, these rate hikes may have had the unintended consequence of slowing economic growth.
Despite the potential risks, experts believe that the current yield curve inversion may not be as concerning as it seems. They argue that other factors, such as the strong job market and low unemployment rate, suggest that the economy is still in good shape.
In the end, only time will tell if the bond market's concerns are justified. However, the Federal Reserve will need to closely monitor the situation and be prepared to take action if necessary to prevent a potential recession.
GBP/JPY Potential 380 pip sell setup!we have seen a nice transition for price respecting the daily support level , still lover timeframe we see price doing a full retracement of the 100% fib level, and got a nice rejection of it.
we shall see a nice continuation to toward side, go with the downward momentum and if we see price breaking the upside then the setup becomes invalid
follow me for more breakdown
SPX 3200 for Early FebruaryMacro factors still spell disaster for the overall performance of the S&P 500. Predicting 3200 for early February.
SPX Huge Short incomingLooking for the benchmark index to go up a little more in to the 4hr poi and daily descending trendline resistance before dropping to make new lows.
Mid to end of November should mark the start of a new and more aggressive downwards movement where we could see price reach the 2750 level.
This is a very important level as it represents the 50% from ATHs and the 08/09 financial crisis where we saw unprecedented drops.
Once we reach this level and rebalance the COVID-19 crash, I'd start looking to hedge buys into the market.
The Impact of Economic Factors on the Stock MarketHi there! So, I heard that the economy is in a bit of a rough patch because the FED is raising rates, there's some quantitively tightening happening, and there's a potential recession on the horizon due to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and China's pandemic restrictions.
It looks like we might be heading into a recession, which is sooo not good news. The stock market will definitely be feeling the effects if the index falls below its moving average of 200 days. It's not looking great, I have to say. But don't worry, there are still ways to protect your investments. Some technical indicators you might want to keep an eye on include the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Bollinger bands. These can help you evaluate the strength of the current trend and potentially identify opportunities to buy or sell.
Also, outside the SPX index there are still ways to further protect your investments. For example, you might want to consider reducing your exposure to risky assets and increasing your holdings of safe-haven assets like government bonds. Just remember to stay positive and keep an eye on the market!
FEDS DECISION We are still in a bear market.. but we need to worry about the Feds.
As in on Dec 2nd of jobs data .. they added 263,000 more jobs added. But the economy are still slowing down. As in the Wall St.. fully agreed that SPX500&NAS100 will crash over 20%
Also other reason.
1: USA just entered a recession
2: COVID-19 Epidemic cases are still rising and deaths.. also other diseases coming to place and new variants.
If anyone still thinks we are bullish be extremely careful.. the bear market is NOT over. We are in December, Recession full effect is coming in 2023 we have Feds meeting coming
Please memorize them it’s important.. for US30 we will see lots of further down.. or lower.
FEDS MEETING DATES.
Dec: 14th Inflation Data
Dec: 15th Feds Decision
( Feds Powell will ether save the market or a lot worse.. will crash the market. )
Dollar currency index parallel to 1980sThere is a short relief that we are currently experiencing which would confluence to around February 2023 for a bearish USD rally. Then a massive bullish USD move for the next decade. Would work well together with 2020-2030s bear market predictions and a deep and long recession.
What surprises me is that the numbers for DXY are exactly the same as they are now.
US in Recession..Danger of US Collapse USA just started in a recession and the danger of collapse; inflation still over 40 year high and unemployment hit 5%.
We will expect more pain of crash of the economy.. of upcoming Feds meeting in December. PLEASE MEMORIZE THESE DATES ITS VERY IMPORTANT.
December 2nd: Jobs Data
December 14th: inflation Data
December 15th: Feds Meeting ( IMPORTANT)
US Just started in a Recession (DANGER)In late 2022 USA just started in a recession of marks of US economy collapsing.
Should expect a buy zone below 3000.. as the upcoming Feds meeting in December; more pain are coming to increase higher rates.
FEDS MEETING
December 2nd: Jobs Data
December 14th: Inflation Data
December 15th: Feds Meeting ( VERY IMPORTANT DATE )
How I see BitcoinHello everyone, this is how I see Bitcoin in the long run. Looking at the weekly timeframe, I am still bearish on Bitcoin right now as it is still trading below the 200-EMA since June 16th, 2022.
Also, we're currently in a technical recession after the FED of Atlanta has estimated a negative -2.1% for Quarter 2 of 2022. We already had a negative -1.6% decline for Quarter 1 and now after the FED of Atlanta released their estimates, we're definitely in the technicalities of a recession. If you don't believe we're in a recession right now, just look awful the big retailers did for their Quarter 1 earnings. Walmart and Target did terrible as their revenue went down from consumers cutting their spending due to inflation and of course the cost of gas/diesel, affecting truckers and consumers. Look at Target, when their Q1 earnings were released on May 18th, 2022; they had an excessive inventory as Target highlighted that there is less customer traffic in their stores, meaning that consumers are not spending as much simply because everything is getting too damn expensive, due to inflation! As consumers cut back on their spending, it will obviously affect the GDP. Just look at the consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It's at the lowest it has ever been recorded. It's not just consumer spending, look at how many times the 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted this year. The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted multiple times in February, March, April, May, and today, as of typing this right now. Many tech companies like Coinbase, Meta, Tesla, etc., have all stopped hiring people since May of 2022, in order to cut back on Salaries and Wages Expenses, due to inflation and bad market sentiment. I could keep going on and on as there are many indicators of a recession. Obviously, we still have to wait for an official announcement from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28th, 2022; whether we're in a recession or not.
How does this all relate to Bitcoin? Well, for the past 4 months, every time the CPI data was released, Bitcoin always had a negative reaction to it. As inflation increases, this will cause the markets to dip even further, meaning that investors will draw away from their investments and will be on cash instead during a recession. Since we are in technicalities of a recession due to the FED of Atlanta, expect the stock market to have a negative reaction, causing the price of shares to go down, which in result, will cause a negative reaction to the crypto market in the short-term.
So July 13th (CPI Data Release) and July 28th (Real GDP Data Release) will be two important days for July 2022.
In the meantime, just because I am bearish on Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's the end of the world. I am still bullish on Bitcoin for the long run. Just zoom-out and relax.
Disclaimer: (I am not a financial advisor! Always conduct your own research before investing.)
Bitcoin Reversal Signal on WEEKLYLooking at the weekly chart we can see that bitcoin is printing a major weekly bullish divergence on the RSI.
There is a good chance that BTC will respond to this and make room for a rally to atleast 28k.
It's possible that we still make lower lows later, but for now I think BTC has a good chance to go up first to play out this weekly divergence
USOIL short opportunityEMAflow printed a short signal which likely limits the upside for oil - we could see a megaphone like movement before resolve - if we wick in to the overbought zone we could get some nice entries:
entry 94-98
tp1 91.93
tp2 87.57
tp3 82.76
tp4 79.60-76.81
sl 103
BTC confirmed the bear flagIn this Bitcoin update can we see that the price confirmed the bear flag but need to confirm the 30k range to confirm a recession as this price range while when the price has confirmed the 25k range would the price be in a free fall period.
This free fall line is confirmed by the 200 EMA on the Weekly time frame and if the price, with confirmation, would fall below this line would the price be in a free fall zone.
This price range would also act as support in the past but this bearish confirmation is confirmed by the Ichimoku clouds showing bearish signs.
Meaning that the price does not have tangible support or resistance more than guestimates and if the price would reach levels like the 20k range and the 10k range.
Bearish flag resulting in 10k Bitcoin
Bear flag:
Short term:
Bitcoin seems to have a systematic bounce from its current bottom in the 40k range, where the consolidation zone may bring k the price to the 45k range where the over-arching trendline is crossing and continuation to 49-51k.
In the short term can we see a bottomed out MACD and an bottomed out RSI with room to reach levels of 45k and 51k range.
Long term:
After re-touching 45k and 51k ranges, would the price crash downwards as buyers have taken profit at these two price ranges.
The bearish flag is formed and the the over arching trend is found once again on this down sloping trendline.
Price movers which pushes the price downwards are:
- The recession warning from Fed, impacting eg. the housing bubble
- The supply-chain crisis impacting the economy negatively, eg. the food prices negatively
- Increased oil prices
- War time
These factors in a period of economic slow down will make people less likely to invest in cryptocurrencies to keep dollar in their wallets. Here is there a negative correlation between DXY (Dollar Cost Index) and the price of Bitcoin.
These reasons may cause the price of Bitcoin to follow the bearish flag formation resulting in a strong downtrend and reaching prices of 20k and 10k.
