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THE CRASH IS HEREThe S&P 500 has attempted a bullish break out in January 2023. The price stalled and started ranging right above previous resistance trend line. Today we see major sell pressure. If we close under temporary support line on my daily chart then we will see the stock market form it's next leg in a downtrend. This will be the longest leg downward. When price fails to breakout it tends to pull back harder and faster than it rallied. Kind of like a rubber band. You can stretch the rubber band upward but as soon as you let go of the rubber band. The opposite force of the rubber band will snap back faster and harder. On the chart, you'll see some green trend lines to where I project price of SPY will land. You can say it's a possible pivot point but honestly I really see the chart hitting 200's before we continue the next future bull cycle. See you guys in summer 2024 when the bulls return! Happy Trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Trebor_Namor
4
SVB: Understanding and Managing Interest Rate Risks CBOT: 10-Year Treasury Futures ( CBOT:ZN1! ) Last Wednesday, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) NASDAQ:SIVB announced that it incurred $1.8 billion loss in the sales of its bond portfolio and sought to issue new shares. Within 48 hours, a bank-run induced by panic customers brought down the legendary bank. On Friday, US banking regulators seized control of SVB. By Sunday, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC) jointly announced a rescue plan that would make whole all depositors. However, SVB shareholders are not protected. Why has happened to the well-respected and once well-capitalized bank? Opportunity and Risk Go Side-by-Side Traditional banks seldom extend credit to startups, which are mostly under-collateralized, with little or no profit and big uncertainties about their future survival. SVB developed a niche competitive edge to provide banking services to companies funded by venture capitals. In the past 40 years, it nurtured many high-profiled tech startups through their entire life cycle, from early-stage to IPO and to Big-Tech giants. If Sequoia Capital invested in your firm and you apply for a loan from a commercial bank, you can expect the loan officer to ask: “Sequoia Who?” But if you go to SVB, they would say: “$10 million will be in your account tomorrow.” VCs are exceptionally good at spotting future technological trends, and they follow a rigorous due diligence process to pick investing targets. By working with VCs and startups closely, SVB created an ecosystem that foster technological innovations, and grew to become the 16th largest US bank by deposit. However, SVB’s concentration in the high-tech sector also make it vulnerable to a boom-and-bust cycle. Last year, bear market hit the industry hard. Publicly traded firms couldn’t raise money with falling share prices. Private companies found the path to IPO got blocked. As startup clients withdrew deposits to keep their companies afloat, SVB is short on capital. It was forced to sell most available-for-sale bonds at a huge loss. Bad news travelled fast in close-knit tech investing community. VCs urged their portfolio companies to get the hack out of SVB. All told, customers withdrew a staggering $42 billion of deposits on Thursday. By the close of business day, SVB had a negative cash balance of $958 million, according to the filing, and this triggered the government takeover. A Commercial Bank with a Failing Grade In fiscal year 2022, SVB earned $4.5 billion in Net Interest Income (NII) and $1.7 billion in non-interest income. When you take away the bells and whistles, SVB is by large a commercial bank. About 73% of its revenue comes from taking in deposits at a low interest rate and making loans at a higher interest rate. Based on its 2022 10K filing, SVB managed $209.2 billion in total interest-bearing asset and earned $5.7 billion. This represented an effective yield of 2.73%. During the same period, SVB paid out $1.2 billion in funding cost, which equated to 0.57%. • Therefore, in 2022, its NII = 2.73% - 0.57% = 2.16% • In comparison, its NII for year 2021 was 2.02% (=2.09% - 0.07%). • On the surface, SVB was doing well, with NII spread increasing by 14 basis points year-over-year. What has gone wrong then? Dive deeper into SVB’s balance sheet, we see the long-dated Treasury bonds and illiquid mortgage-backed securities it held got hammered by the rising interest rates. Simply put, SVB got its interest payment back, but the value of its investment principal eroded in a huge way in a rate-hiking environment. All in all, managing interest rate risk is at the core of banking business. A Naked Bond Portfolio In its 10K, SVB puts its investment portfolio in Available-For-Sales (AFS), Held-To-Maturity (HTM) and Non-marketable securities categories. AFS balance was $26.1 billion as of December 31st, including: • U.S. Treasury securities $ 16,135m (61.9%) • Agency-issued MBS $6,603m (25.3%) • Agency-issued CMBS $1,464m (5.6%) • Foreign government debt securities $1,088m (4.2%) • Agency-issued CMO—fixed rate $678m (2.6%) • U.S. agency debentures $101m (0.4%) • Total AFS securities $26,069m (100%) Last week, SVB sold $21 billion in the AFS portfolio and incurred a loss of $1.8 billion, or -8.6%. AFS assets are marked to market every quarter. My understanding is that the loss figure was based on selling price vs. year-end fair market value. Total loss calculated from purchasing price could be much bigger, as these bonds may have been marked down multiple times during previous quarters. Evidence: Since March 2022, CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN) price went down from 124 to 109 (-12%) and 30-Year Treasury Bond (ZB) fell from 152 to 118 (-22%). CBOT Treasury futures market, with its sheer size and liquidity, makes it the marketplace of choice to manage interest risk in times of uncertainties. Each ZN contract has a notional value of $100,000. • On Monday March 13th, daily trading volume is 3,760,911 lots, which translates into total notional of $376 billion. Open interest (OI) stands at 4,311,338, or $431 billion in notional. • Volume and OI for ZB are 719,518 and 1,209,881, respectively. Notional value for each is $72 billion and $121 billion, respectively. What’s Next On Friday, Signature Bank customers spooked by the SVB collapse withdrew $10 billion. That quickly led to the bank failure. Regulators announced Sunday that Signature was being taken over to protect its depositors and the stability of the U.S. financial system. Despite government intervention over the weekend, fear ran contagious through the financial industry this Monday. San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, which had $212 billion in assets at the end of 2022, saw its stock price plunge as much as 70% when the market opened Monday morning. By market close, US stock market stabilized. Investors wonder if a banking crisis could be the final punch to end the year-long Fed rate hikes. Lessons Learnt As investors, we usually allocate our financial assets across various instruments, such as stocks, bonds, and derivatives. The 60 (stock) / 40 (bond) portfolio is the most popular advice from Wall Street. People generally pay more attention to what stocks to buy and hold, but we may not think twice about managing interest risk in a rising rate environment. The SVB fallout shows that even the safest, risk-free Treasury bonds, if not actively managed, could fall prey to interest rate changes and liquidity risk, resulting in loss of market value. For me, this is a wake-up call and a good time to review my bond holdings. Some may be hidden in a 401K retirement plan. Hedging interest rate risk with CBOT Treasury futures and Micro Yield futures could go a long way to stay solvent. A View on Interest Rate Trajectory Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in February and 6% from a year ago, in line with market expectations. This is the most recent data the Fed will consider before it makes interest decision on March 22nd. Inflation is cooling, but still too high. A bank run shows how damaging rising interest rate is to the economy. Whether the Fed will continue its rate hikes, pause them, or end them altogether, I think all options are open. In my view, interest rate is in an uncharted territory once again. With investors in panic mode, they will likely overreact to the Fed decision. This may be a good time to place an order of out-of-the-money options on CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN). On March 14th, the June ZN contract is quoted at 113’220. Quoting convention in Treasury market is 100 and 1/64th. The quote reads as (113 + 22.0/64), or $113.34375 on $100 par value. If the Fed slows or pause the hike, Treasury price will likely go up. Call options would be appropriate in this case. • The 115-strike call is quoted 0’20 (=20/64). This is converted into $312.5 premium on the $100,000 contract notional for each contract. If the Fed stays its course on fighting inflation, Treasury price could fall. And put options would be a way to express your view. • The 112-strike put is quoted 0’14, or $218.75 premium per contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6
SPX Jamie Dimon: economic hurricane coming our way!Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO: "Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself." Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation, interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine. I have 2 scenarios: the most optimistic is that SPX formed and inverse head and shoulders chart pattern and it will close the year at the same level that it started it, around $4900. And the worst case scenario is if Jamie Diamon is right and we are going lower after this bounce to the resistance. In this case, the first strong support is $3400. I see that it go lower only if oil stays higher than $140 - 150 for this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPX
by TopgOptions
Is a crash approaching?Hi, I had opened a short on the SP500 last night, all economic factors are pointing towards a recession whether it is interest rates, housing market, inflation or political leaders. This week the US 2 year treasury reached 5%, a level not seen since just before the financial crash. Waking up to the news of Silcon valley bank plummeting due to them announcing a share sale to help hold up their finances. This saw shares across the whole market drop, spooking investors. Shares in the four largest banks dropped more than $50 billion. I believe this could be the catalyst to start the next financial crash, I had already made some predictions on this a few months ago in September 22. SVB is also a big lender to the tech industry which has built up as the foundations of the current economy. Maybe I'm wrong - let me know your thoughts!
SP:SPXShort
by HBSPG
Any chance for a $SIVB Revival?No surprise we saw a huge knife down that met with hard resistance at ~$82.77. This price point acted as a huge support back in 2016. Despite the NFP numbers, there should be a relief bounce for the stock, but any follow-through to break that resistance during the trading day could introduce a retest of the monthly high in 2000. You can be certain that Silicon Valley Bank is at risk of losing capital to the many companies that will be looking to withdraw (keep in mind that the struggling tech market means fewer deposits in SVB). I have no specific positions on $SIVB and see a very long road to recovery here. Their 2.3B firesale in new shares would cause extreme dilution to the stock, which was needed from their horrible positioning just before interest rates increased with their $21 billion bond portfolio having a yield of 1.79% and a duration of 3.6 years compared to the 3-year treasury yield of 4.71%. What happened today is a harbinger of what's to come for the entire market.
S
by theapearmy
3
$DXY overtakes $BTCOne of the most important barometers for global currencies is the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar versus a basket of global currencies. What is the relationship between DXY and BTC? What Does it Signify? It is a known fact that the crypto price movements are deeply correlated with the DXY Index since its inception. While the DXY index gets stranger, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other assets tend to fall. Besides, if the cryptos manifest their strength, then the dollar's strength tends to fall.
TVC:DXY
by DIGITALDRO
European Gas March 2023: Bullish and Bearish FactorsThe idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last months so that a total shutdown would be possible. Russian gas remains crucial for the European economy despite the American armada of LNG ships. Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift The company plans to restore the plant in January 2023. A possible postponement would support TTF prices in the winter season. Limitations of US Gas Exports Last winter, some US Senate members suggested limiting or prohibiting US LNG export. They estimated that the change would increase US gas supply for the internal US market, especially for New England, which is dependent on the import of gas from the gas-production states getting gas via pipelines and LNG. They said the prohibition would reduce high gas prices for customers and industry. In July, LNG winter 2023 prices for New England touched a record high of $40/MMBtu, while Henry Hub traded at about $8.6/MMBtu. I suppose that senators would return to the idea, especially since the US elections are in November. Although the risk is low, its realization could dramatically affect the TTF price assessment. Analysts and think tanks have considered possible Russian gas cuts but haven't accessed a potential US gas supply reduction. French Nuclear Plants Outages Since the end of 2021, the French nuclear industry has been weak with planned and unplanned maintenance. As a result, nuclear output has lost more than 40% YoY of its output. While serious issues are unlikely to arise, new minor obstacles could buoy TTF prices. Dry Summer The continuation of the European 2022 dry summer led to abbreviated hydropower production. On the back of hydropower reduction, natural gas-power generation increases its output and gas consumption, driving subdued gas injection into storage facilities. Subdued gas injection in summer means less gas for winter, creating a possible gas deficit. Bearish: Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction High inflation induced by the monetary policy of 2020-2021 provokes a decline in real incomes and makes some industrial production unprofitable or near break-even. These debilitate aggregate demand, particularly industrial output of fertilizers, ceramics, and other chemicals. Industries that are heavily reliant on gas are cutting their gas consumption today. Lasting historically high gas prices would promote a decrease in gas utilization. The demand destruction could happen among all consumers: power, industrial and individual. A new recession is near. ECB monetary policy with a growing rate also adds problems to the economy. The rate is still tiny, but debt bubbles are sensitive to interest rate change. The bust of bubbles would drop economic growth and curtail gas demand pushing TTF prices down. Slowing world economy The world economy suffers from high prices losing economic growth momentum. A move into a recession would trigger a decline in gas consumption lowering LNG gas prices and letting LNG producers increase LNG sendout to Europe. Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing Energy ministers of Europe adopted plans to voluntarily cut gas demand by 15% from August until March 31, 2022. In case of emergency, like near zero Russian flows, the voluntary reduction changes to mandatory. i.e., gas rationing. The actions could divert rising prices. Covid Lockdowns in Europe Europe has prepared different measures to withstand possible gas issues in winter. Besides voluntary reduction or rationing Europe could return to the lockdowns of 2020, when gas consumption dramatically went down because industrial production of goods collapsed. Since June 2022, the media has published news about a new variant of Covid. Countries could impose Covid-related limitations this fall. Unstable gas consumption and gas shortage would drive for a Covid or climate lockdown. A good measure to cut gas demand and destroy the economy. Covid Lockdowns in China Despite possible lockdowns of 2022-2023 in Europe, lockdowns in China happened in the last months and could be imposed again. An effect of prohibitions has hit the Chinese economy and cut gas consumption resulting in freeing up the supply for other consumers, i.e., Europe. New Chinese lockdowns would mean more gas for Europe. Joker : The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season. On the technical side , there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh , €300/MWh , and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading , essential levels are €125/MWh , €100/MWh , and €86/MWh . The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh . So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach. Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season. Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
ICEEUR:TFMH2023
by Nikita_Kalinin
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | FebuaryTable of Content: 1. Eurozone Inflation Data 2. US Economics Growth 3. NVDA 4. Commodities 5. Technical Analysis 1. Eurozone Inflation Data The Eurozone's inflation for the month of January has exceeded the previously estimated figures, as reported by MarketWatch on February 23. It has been emphasized by policymakers that the economy is undergoing a disinflation process, and a soft landing has been achieved. However, the recent surge in inflation within the European Union implies a substantial escalation in interest rates. 2. US Economic Growth The US economy experienced a less robust economic expansion than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by a downward revision in consumer spending. This adjustment has resulted in weaker economic growth (Bloomberg). The total amount of outstanding credit card debt in the United States has reached $986 billion, with an average interest rate of 20%. This marks the highest level of credit card debt since the 1980s and translates into an interest payment of $200 billion per year. These figures do not include other forms of debt such as mortgages, student loans, and car loans, which are likely to exacerbate the situation. At the same time, the US government is paying over $200 billion in interest payments The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has risen from 5.3% to 5.4%, however, this data alone is insufficient to support the notion of disinflation. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downwards from 2.9% to 2.7% (a decrease of 0.2%) from the preceding quarter. According to Bloomberg, the US economy experienced a weaker expansion than originally projected. Revised fourth-quarter inflation figures have been adjusted upward. Additionally, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that "The Federal Reserve has lost a little bit of control of inflation". He has been warning about the economy for a while and I believe that he knows something is cracking as we speak. 3. NVDA The stock price of $NVDA experienced double-digit growth. The stock price has risen by 100% since the beginning of the year. Revenues and profits have both decreased by 21% and 52% respectively on a year-over-year basis, and every segment of the business has exhibited a decline over the same period. The CEO placed significant emphasis on the importance of Artificial Intelligence, yet he sold stocks worth over $100 million prior to the market's significant downturn and may presently be engaged in additional sales. 4. Commodities The statement suggests an anticipated appreciation in the value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the downward movements of gold, silver, platinum, copper, and various grains such as corn, rice, and soybean. Conversely, energy commodities are experiencing an upward trend, with natural gas exhibiting a significant increase. 5. Technical Analysis The 21-day weighted ratio of equity-only put-to-call options is suggestive of a preponderance of puts in the market and indicates a significant degree of buying pressure. This metric has demonstrated a high degree of efficacy in identifying market highs and lows by suggesting a move in the opposite direction to the put/call ratio. Notably, during the present bear market, the ratio has achieved a 100% success rate. Furthermore, the current volume of call options is the highest on record, and retail investors are contributing $1.1 billion daily to the market. -Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving downwards and volume remain below average (bearish) As previously stated, " I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels". I have now filled all my short position on BTC in a confident manner. Below is my BTC outlook Conclusion: The recent market rally, spurred by technical indicators, high-quantity puts, and government emphasis on disinflation, has led to a surge in retail investment. As a result, prices for some assets have skyrocketed, and the quantity of long positions in the market has reached alarming levels. This suggests an overabundance of buying and a lack of liquidity that could cause the market to dip and potentially result in retail closures, as inflation has proven to be more persistent than anticipated by governments. I remain committed to my long-term investment plan, I am acknowledging the growing fissures in some economies that could lead to a catastrophic downturn. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market turbulence in the future. As previously mentioned, my portfolio consists of short-term bonds, USD, SPX shorts, BTC Shorts, small quantity gold, and just acquired Natural gas contracts. For personal records but feel free to discuss or argue.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
Value, Growth or neither?Looking at equity markets as a conflict between Value stocks and Growth stocks has become a reflex for many market commentators. ‘Growth is beating Value’ (or the other way around) is always a good headline. Value stocks are defined as basically cheap stocks and it is, therefore, possible in any index, to point to the Value side of that index. Growth stocks are defined as stocks with above-average growth prospects. So again, it is possible to look at an index and point to the growthiest stocks. The main index providers have done exactly that by splitting their main indices in two down the middle, a Growth and a Value version, as early as the 1980s. Using Value and Growth to explain the last ten years While simplistic and playing into human’s love of false dichotomies, it is true that this narrative explained the last ten years of equity performance pretty well. From the overwhelming domination of Growth stocks, in a negative interest rate environment where investment was cheap, to the start of a Value revival last year, on the back of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. What about the other factors? Didn’t Quality perform better over that period? However, most things in our world can’t be reduced to a simple choice. Academics have demonstrated over the last five decades that multiple other factors can be used to slice and dice the markets to create outperforming portfolios. In the 90s, Fama and French introduced their 3-factors model using Value but also Size and Momentum to explain market returns. More recently, they added Profitability (often called Quality) and Investment in a new 5-factors model. Looking at the performance of the seven leading factors over the last ten years, we note that while Growth beat the market by 1.6% per annum and Value underperformed by 1.9% per annum, the strongest factor was, in fact, Quality with an outperformance of 2.3% per annum1. Is Quality Value or Growth, then? Using Quality as a third lens, we observe that companies in the Value index are, on average, less profitable than those in the benchmark, and that those in the Growth index are, on average, more so. 23% of the S&P 500 Value exhibit less than 10% in return on equity (ROE) versus less than 5% for the S&P 500 Growth. And 25% of the S&P 500 Growth has more than 50% in ROE versus less than 5% for the Value index. However, what is fascinating is that in the Value index, there are still some very profitable companies and in the Growth index, there are still some unprofitable companies. In other words, the Value/Growth dichotomy is very different from the High Quality/Low Quality one. The market could therefore be split not into two indices (Value and Growth) but into four: High-Quality Value High-Quality Growth Low-Quality Value Low-Quality Growth Historically, High-Quality Value has outperformed High-Quality Growth Using academic data, it is possible to splice US equity markets since the 60s into groups by fundamental data. In Figure 3, we focus every year on the 20% of the universe with the highest operating profitability (that is, High Quality in Figure 3). That group is then split into five further quintiles depending on their valuations (using price to book (P/B) as a metric) from the cheapest to the most expensive. We observe that picking profitable companies with high P/B would have outperformed the market since the 60s but would have underperformed profitable companies in general. On the contrary, picking cheaper High-Quality companies would have outperformed both the market and the overall High-Quality grouping. In other words, Quality Value has outperformed Quality Growth over the last 60 years in US equity markets. Looking at other geographies, such as Europe, we find similar results. At WisdomTree, we believe that a well-constructed Quality strategy can be the cornerstone of an equity portfolio.High-Quality companies exhibit an ‘all-weather’ behaviour that offers a balance between building wealth over the long term whilst protecting the portfolio during economic downturns. However, in 2022, secondary tilts were incredibly important. Value stocks benefitted from central banks’ hawkishness, leaning on their low implied duration to deliver outstanding performance in a particularly hard year for equities. Among Quality-focused strategies, the one with Value tilt delivered outperformance on average, and the one with Growth tilt tended to underperform. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk continues to hang over the market like the sword of Damocles. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The recent coordinated communication plan by Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee members is a further example of this continued hawkishness. With markets facing many of the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, it looks like resilient investments that tilt to Quality and Value that have done particularly well in 2022 could continue to benefit. Sources 1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. From 31 January 2013 to 31 January 2023. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net TR Index. Value is proxied by the MSCI World Value net TR Index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality net TR Index. The remaining 4 factors (Min Vol, High Dividend Small Cap and Momentum) are also proxied by indices in the MSCI families.
NASDAQ:NQFFUSQ
by aneekaguptaWTE
NN: Biggest daily H&S ever and €250 million new share buyback.After posting a more than 14% drop in 2022 operating profit (1.74bn), missing market estimates of 1.84 bn, and even though its operating capital generation (OCG) jumped 8% to 1.71 billion euros last year mainly thanks to higher interest rates and a strong business performance of the Netherlands Life and Insurance Europe segments; the company is shaping the biggest H&S pattern I have ever witnessed in a stock. Besides, NN also announced a new share buyback programme of 250 million euros. Will they implode due to share buybacks that will materialise into negative returns in the near future? At this pace, all those companies doing share buybacks will be the most damnified of the market due to an increased own capital at the wrong time. And it is a pity because this company has really attractive fundamentals, but after the operating profit miss in 2022 and the imminent recession all media is talking about, it is currently very risky to invest in it. But I will keep it in the radar as 35.6€ is the first support while 45€ is the first resistance.
EURONEXT:NNShort
by alexinve
25 year monthly study of ESAnnotations included on the chart: This chart is essentially demonstrating just how far the market is capable of pulling back. The chart includes key levels and the years of notable highs / lows as well as + / - rejection boxes showing where price pivots as well as how perfectly, years later, price is capable of traveling far distances to perfectly tap back into an old rejection block. Most notably the 2020 pullback that perfectly filled the small rejection block created when price was finally able to make a break above in 2016.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by puapwr
Alt Coins in need of liquidity Let's skip the whole macro and interests rates stories. The last crypto pump was pure market manipulation in order to floor the "whales" entry price. It was a pretty big short squeeze caused by released of sell positions as seen on the derivative open interest. Without explaining all the concept of liquidity, the market is in need of more cash. The whole short squeeze leg left hanging a whole lot of orders, in what is called : gap. Based on the common sell off pattern. I already took a short positions and I am waiting for a upside retracement to take another entry. The imbalance or gaps can act as a S/R and these zones will acts as my T.P Remember this : Market moves from liquidity to liquidity. PSA. Knowing how crypto moves in harmony between coins, I simply choose the charts that feelt more comfortable.
by Ant2ny
1
S&P 500 Are we about to drop it like it's hot?Tracking our wave count for the S&P 500 we could be about to drop hard this week, with CPI reports due out on Tuesday and the Fed due to deliver another hawkish statement on Wednesday we could be entering into the wave 3 of C which will be a very sharp move and will demolish a lot of wealth in a very short space of time. We will move away from the narrative of inflation peaking and into a new narrative of inflation not dissapating as quickly as hoped. In turn the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated (which they have signalled in the past few meetings). This is likely to scare investors out of stocks and into cash, namely the dollar. The 'bullish' move up that topped on the 1st of December was just a counter trend rally (completing wave 2 of C) and was designed as such to convice traders/investors that the bottom is in and we are heading to new highs, drawing in the bulls only to swing rapidly to lows not seen since the covid crash. We feel a conservative target for this wave 3 of C would be circa 3200, a very nice 750 points of profit from current prices.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
A Recession vs a Bearish Correction The bitter memory from 2008 still persists in our minds, or at least in the minds of those who witnessed first hand what a Great Recession is. In 2008 many variables were set and many gears were in motion. Long story short, even though the media has attempted to call a recession, or to spread the fear of the bear among the people, which technically yes, it is a bear market by definition, it is not a recession, just yet. We’re in a hiking rate environment, and still the major indexes have managed to find support on the long term moving averages. Comparing the levels and the moving average crosses today and in 2008, the main difference we find is the levels did cross down and the trend was officially bear. Afterwards a capitulation took place and the macroeconomic variables changed to provide the environment for a rebound and a reversal which gave birth to this secular bull market. We’re not at the capitulation level, the volume has been steady and we’re on the bullish side of the trend. What did we just witness? A bear leg, basically a painful correction. The indexes are turning to the upside, the market took profits and the VIX scratched above the 20 level. We’ll probably see more selling because we’re in the take profit part of the short term cycle. We’ll see how deep the market is willing to dive, but the positive momentum divergence and the back to the green of the indicators show the intent to go for a bullish leg. The target area is at the 4500-4600 level.
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
2