Green in the sea of red: Biotech (2)Summary
This week we are sharing 2 rebound trade opportunities in healthcare and biotech, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI , which are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq , making them better candidates to trade for rebound.
Since the beginning of 2022, skyrocketing inflation and increasing recession risk have pushed the broad equity markets to the downside. S&P500 is down more than 20% from peak, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is down close to 30% from peak as of today. If we look back the whole rally, it all started during Mar-2020 as the Fed reacted aggressively toward covid by massive money printing (i.e. quantitative easing). In fact both S&P500 and Nasdaq are now getting closer to the 250 weeks moving average, which is approximately where the post-covid rally had broken the pre-covid peak. Rebound is very likely to happen as “where it started” is usually a strong resistance level that slows correction.
S&P500
Nasdaq100
To execute this trade, instead of directly longing the indexes, healthcare and biotech sector ETF, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq100, which make them better candidates to trade the idea. Fundamentally speaking, we believe the reason behind the strength is due to the irreversible trends of aging population across the globe especially among developed countries; as well as in the seemingly more frequent pandemic outbreaks during recent years. Both trends create steady demand for healthcare and need for biotechnological innovation. The MRNA technology is a good recent example to illustrate the importance of biotechnological innovation in fighting pandemic.
We recommend more conservative traders to execute the idea with AMEX:XLV (link here: ), while more aggressive traders can go with AMEX:XBI (this post) which is relatively volatile.
Note : XBI also come with 3X leveraged ETF AMEX:LABU (bullish) and AMEX:LABD (bearish) for those who are looking for more leverage with same amount of capital
Technical
The 250 days moving average of AMEX:XBI is pointing downward, and it is currently trading below the 250 days moving average, which confirms the down trend is still effective for AMEX:XBI . Benchmarking with NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq100 index ETF), although both are in similar down trend, AMEX:XBI 20 days moving average has already crossed the 50 days moving average while that of NASDAQ:QQQ still running below, which shows stronger confirmation of the rebound for AMEX:XBI than NASDAQ:QQQ .
Here are some important level one should pay attentions to:
Downside support
72.55: Jun-30 retest low after breaking 50 days moving average
61.78: May-12 52 weeks low
Upside resistance
84.63: Jul-8 high after breaking 50 days moving average
97.19: Apr-5 high before creating new low on May-12
118.23: 2021 May-10 consolidation bottom, which was broken, retested and continued to the downside during 2021 Nov to Dec
Rebound
Green in the sea of red: Healthcare (1)Summary
This week we are sharing 2 rebound trade opportunities in healthcare and biotech, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI , which are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq , making them better candidates to trade for rebound.
Since the beginning of 2022, skyrocketing inflation and increasing recession risk have pushed the broad equity markets to the downside. S&P500 is down more than 20% from peak, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is down close to 30% from peak as of today. If we look back the whole rally, it all started during Mar-2020 as the Fed reacted aggressively toward covid by massive money printing (i.e. quantitative easing). In fact both S&P500 and Nasdaq are now getting closer to the 250 weeks moving average, which is approximately where the post-covid rally had broken the pre-covid peak. Rebound is very likely to happen as “where it started” is usually a strong resistance level that slows correction.
S&P500
Nasdaq100
To execute this trade, instead of directly longing the indexes, healthcare and biotech sector ETF, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq100, which make them better candidates to trade the idea. Fundamentally speaking, we believe the reason behind the strength is due to the irreversible trends of aging population across the globe especially among developed countries; as well as in the seemingly more frequent pandemic outbreaks during recent years. Both trends create steady demand for healthcare and need for biotechnological innovation. The MRNA technology is a good recent example to illustrate the importance of biotechnological innovation in fighting pandemic.
We recommend more conservative traders to execute the idea with AMEX:XLV (this post), while more aggressive traders can go with AMEX:XBI (link here: ) which is relatively volatile.
Note : XBI also come with 3X leveraged ETF AMEX:LABU (bullish) and AMEX:LABD (bearish) for those who are looking for more leverage with same amount of capital
Technical
AMEX:XLV is still outperforming major indexes. Instead of downtrend, AMEX:XLV is still in a consolidation period. AMEX:XLV has been trading in extending box range since Oct-2021, with 1 extension to the upside in Dec-2021, and 1 extension to the downside this year on Jun-13.
The more than 8 months of consolidation period has flattened the 250 days moving average, yet not bending it downward (yet?). 20 days and 50 days moving averages have been crossing each other multiple times during the consolidation period, making them less indicative from a technical perspective. Currently AMEX:XLV is trading below 250 days moving average, tested but failed to penetrate the moving average on Jul-8, if it still cannot get above the 250 days moving average in the coming months, the downside pressure will materialize into an actual down trend.
In summary, these are the important levels one should pay attention to:
Downside support
118.75: Jun-13 new box bottom
109.74: Post covid peak before rallying to the upside
Upside resistance
132.04: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 250 days moving average
143.42: Apr-8 new box top
EUR-USD Parity! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in a strong downtrend
And the pair has almost reached PARITY
So despite my strong bearish bias
I think that we will see at least a local rebound
From the 1.00000 level on EUR-USD
Because If thats not a round level
I don't know what is...
Buy!
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EUR-NZD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-NZD has been falling for some time now
And the pair looks locally oversold
So when the price retests a support level
I think that we will see a rebound and a bullish correction
Buy!
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✅COFFEE LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅COFFEE is about to retest a key structure level
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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AUD-USD Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD was trading in a bearish triangle
Then we saw a breakout and a move down
Now the pair has made a rebound and
Is retesting the resistance
Form where I believe we will see
A bearish move down
Sell!
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AUD-JPY Swing Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-JPY broke out of the bearish triangle
And went down just as I predicted
In my previous analysis
Now the pair is making a rebound
To retest the supply area above
But I am still bullish and I believe
We might see further price decline
During the next trading week
Sell!
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GER 30 INDEX 1H moving versionsThis is a massive Bear market but we have Possible rebound before we Go to HELL :)
Im 100% sure that markets going to new much lower levels due to several problems in economy.
If we have a little lucky we will can open short position for longer time at a higher price for more profit.
This fall we can see nowadays not too much compared to other bear market in the past especially the 2008 crash . i beleve that the next crash in the near future reaching the same order of magnitude.
Good luck! :)
EURUSD H1, ABOVE 1.0591,TARGET 1.0674 -1.0806As expected,EURUSD hit 1.0635.
As I said in the previous idea, "So far, EURUSD still rejected from1.0340. While Above 1.0340, Potential Rebound to target 1.0635 & 1.0800."
For now, while Above 1.0591,EURUSD Still Bullish. Open The Way To Target 1.0674-1.0806 Area.
1.0459-1.0591 Neutral Area, Short Term Consolidation.
But, Below 1.0459, would Cancel EURUSD Short Term Bullish. Open The Way To Retest 1.0348.
Below 1.0348 Would be a Strong Bearish.
A long-overdue small-cap reboundThe small-cap Russell 2000 Index has been the underdog among the four major US indices since last year. Its post-pandemic rally halted in early 2021, and subsequently, it went sideways for more than a year without making new highs. Meanwhile, the tech darlings continued to go north all the way until the beginning of this year.
The first half of 2022 has been marked by widespread risk-off sentiment and a precipitous drop in the US equity market. After being down almost 30% from the high, we now find the Russell 2000 Index at significant technical support levels that we believe a meaningful rebound will likely ensue.
The Index has bounced right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1700. We also observed bullish RSI Divergence where price made lower lows, but RSI showed higher lows, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and at the cusp of a reversal.
Entry at 1806, stop above 1680. Targets are 1880 and 2100.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Time for DeFi to Rebound? This chart represents a basket of top DeFi projects. DeFi tokens are down bad from their bull run highs, but seem to be bouncing off an area of previous accumulation / support.
Will we get a bearish retest of the 200SMA? This would amount to a ~30% pump for DeFi.
Bitcoin or ETH could easily steal the show, but perhaps worth keeping an eye on!
happy trades,
CD
BTC Market Cap Crosses $970 BillionIn a rebound of more than 5% on Wednesday, BTC jumped above the market cap of $970 billion for the first time this week.
While the recent rally was not so significant, it gave the digital asset enough support to remain above $40,000.
After touching a high of almost $41,500 on Wednesday, BTC pulled back and dipped below $40,000 for a brief period.
However, Bitcoin increased gradually during the past 12 hours and is now trading near $40,800. In addition, BTC’s dominance stayed above 41% during the recent volatility.
“Bitcoin is currently seeing some buy pressure. We could see some short-term relief in the market over the coming days/weeks as protective positions unwind after today’s highly anticipated rate hike. However, I think Bitcoin and the crypto space are unlikely to gain significant traction in 2022.
GBP-USD Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD fell sharply and got oversold
And we are now witnessing a recovery
With the price now being above the kye level again
From where I am expdecting further growth
But trading now is risky, please use 0.5% risk
Or even don't trade at all!
Buy!
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EURGBP With an Attempted Breakout The price action of the EURGBP is currently attempting a breakout above the upper limit of the descending channel on the reinvigorated bullish bias. The euro was bolstered today following the release of the better-than-expected German ifo business climate numbers for February.
The preceding downtrend, taking the form of a 1-5 Elliott impulse wave pattern, was completed at the major support level at 0.83120, which has already prompted several bullish rebounds recently.
If the breakout is successful, the price action would then test the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 0.83592. The next target would be the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 0.84048.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC/USD Holds above $39K SupportOn February 17, the bears succeeded in breaking below the $41,800 support as BTC price attempts a rebound. The breakdown signals the resumption of a downtrend. In retrospect, the largest cryptocurrency has been range-bound between $41,800 and $45,000 price levels. The bulls made several attempts but failed to break the $45,000 overhead resistance. Sellers have regained temporal control of prices as BTC/USD declines.
Resistance Levels: $70,000, $75,000, $80,000
Support Levels: $50,000, $45,000, $40,000