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Navigating The Market : Simplified #AUD NZD 2nd Sept 19The AUDNZD had been in a bullish trend since price bounced off at 1.0280 on 6th August 2019. That bullish move day followed by a massive price expansion the vary next day (230 pips!) thanks to RBNZ cutting their rates from 1.25% to 1.00%. NZD had been in a massive sell off across the board since then. Retail sentiment on NZD however, remains bullish NZD. Indeed, retail sentiment is looking for that reversal- believing the marked have priced in the RBNZ move. Never a good idea. I am bearish on the NZD due to the following three things : 1) I am (trying) a contrarian trader. I generally look to trade the other side of the general retail sentiment. NZD is heavily bid in retail, so I am keen to be the in the other side (this is too simplistic and binary, I know. This is not the only parameter that influences my bias) 2) Simply look at the chart, we are in an uptrend. Stick a long term moving average there (50MA, 60MA, 67MA, 82MA, 86MA etc etc), price is trading well above that. It is tempting to trade reversal after a long trend, picking tops (and bottoms if its in a bearish trend). I am somewhat a trend following trader, discretionary. At the moment, its not the optimal time to think of shorting AUDNZD. 3) The monthly range and weekly range was reached and exceeded. Now, usually, when this happens I would shift my short term bias to a reversal mode - as liquidity "dries out" and it would the time for the banks to take profit but I believe it was due to the fundamental factor (RBNZ cutting rates), so I will maintain my sentiment bias for now. 4)I believe there will be liquidity run this week between 1.0700 to 1.07300. Plenty of potential retail buy stops there, oceans of them. Liquidity Pools are like magnets. My plan, since I am bearish NZD, is to long AUDNZD when the usual stop hunts have been completed. I expect a stop hunt (another form of liquidity run) at 1.06500-1.06350 in the downside and then I will find a trigger to long AUDNZD. Alternatively, if the price goes up first and tap around 1.0700, I would have to assume its for trapping breakout traders and then they will take their stoploss out at 1.06500-1.06350 - in which by then, I will be looking to long AUDNZD from there. If price continues through without touching the liquidity pool coincided at theFriday low, then I will stay on the sidelines and re-adjust my plan.
Long
by sufiansaid
5
NZDUSD Likely To Decline Further Towards 61 Cents! Have a look at the snapshot above. It represents the nearby support and resistance levels on monthly TF of NZDUSD. A convincing close of monthly candle below 0.64000 would likely confirm probable bearish continuation until 0.61000 where the next support lies. Looking at the main chart, there is a nice descending channel continuation! Should the monthly candle and this week's candle close below 0.64000 we can take this pair SHORT to target 0.61000 level. The fundamental outlook too is against the KIWI as global slowdown due to trade war is affecting the KIWI. With the Tradewar far from over and RBNZ leaning towards slashing rates again to boost the economy, a visit to 0.61000 is highly likely. This just represents my outlook on this pair, shall a trade opportunity arise i will post it in a new thread.
Short
by FX618Analysis
3
Go Short as NZDUSD Pullback Reaches Supply Zone - Good risk-off opportunity as NZDUSD pullback after larger-than-expected rate cut by RBNZ - Kiwi to be pressured by trade war - In contrast to the RBNZ, the Fed was not as dovish as expected This week we saw the RBNZ delivering a 0.5% rate cut, 0.25% more than what the market had estimated, and said that rates might go into negative territory. The kiwi plunged across the board but still managed to rebound slightly despite such surprise. But with such a shock and dovish message, I think it is hard for this pullback to sustain. Furthermore, trade tensions are apparently worsening since last week. This will add more downside pressure to risk-on currencies (AUD & NZD). On the other hand, the Fed delivered a mixed message last week which was not as dovish as anticipated. Until further news is released regarding the Fed's stance on rates, NZDUSD should continue its march downwards to around 0.6380-90.
Short
by PipHike
Gold new all-time high in NZD termsThanks for viewing, After last weeks unexpectedly deep 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ the NZD has lost ground against USD www.ft.com Against a back-drop of a very bullish gold/USD price this has resulted in gold breaking its 2011 all time high. I get the feeling that the a new monetary easing policy (QE4?) is around the corner from the Fed, so we are at the start of a new easing cycle. If we are at 1% rates (this is a negative real interest rate. Inflation is 1.9% presently tradingeconomics.com) at the start of an easing cycle, then negative (nominal - not just interest rates below inflation) interest rates are a very real possibility. We may be approaching a time in New Zealand that it will be much more prudent to keep your cash in a safe, instead of paying banks to hold it for you. This happened in Japan and can happen in Australia and New Zealand as well: www.scmp.com Remember that the RBNZ holds no precious metals (bulk sold in 1960s and the balance sold in 1991) and all of its assets are foreign currency cash assets www.rbnz.govt.nz Expect all of those cash assets to reduce in real purchasing power while gold continues to climb. Protect those funds everyone.
OANDA:XAUNZD
by flyinkiwi10
Opportunity Knocks For The NZDJPYWith global equities continuing to be supported by favorable liquidity conditions and little else, it was really just a matter of time before risk assets came under more pressure. The biggest red flag was flying in the bonds market, where global bonds have continued to rally sending yields sharply lower. Equities rallying strong along with bonds is not sustainable, and considering slowing global growth, trade conflicts, and political unrest risk assets have appeared the most vulnerable. The constant flows into bonds highlights the increasing uncertainty and demand for safety. The current equities decline started when the Fed disappointed doves with only a 25bp cut, delivered with a neutral statement. The decline was accelerated by news of new tariffs that will be imposed on China by the Trump administration. This sparked a sell off of risk assets, and flows into safe havens such as JPY and CHF. The USD missed the boat this go around partly due to the unwinding of the EURUSD carry trade caused by the quick spike in volatility. There were also some EM factors that contributed to the USD decline, but those are outside the scope of what we are trying to convey here. After all, we are here for the NZDJPY. NZD is a high beta currency strongly tied to the performance of the global economy. It is also directly impacted by the US-China trade conflict, just like its cousin the AUD. Today the RBNZ surprised the market by cutting 50bp (market was expecting 25bp). Soft inflation expectations wiped out any positive the currency picked up on strong employment figures yesterday, business confidence remains very poor, and the RBNZ has even floated the idea of unconventional monetary policy. All of these things should keep the NZD weak over the medium term. On the technical side, we have now traded through key monthly support, which should now serve as a barrier for any rally attempts. Over the coming months we are looking for continued declines towards 65.00 and then 62.00.
Short
by ChrisMathis
1
NZDUSD H1|RBNZ Forecast|NZDUSD H1 With RBNZ interest rate decision coming close (August 6/7) , We should be expecting tons of volatility in NZD pairs. ============================================== What we already know: NZD is likely to cut rates given the fact that a sell off had already happened. The effects are already priced in. The interest rate however, is going to have some bullish momentum in the initial release before a further rally downwards is achievable. ================================================ Marked out 2 simple zones where price can go to with the initial spike. Place 2 sell orders respectively. One or both may trigger. Risk management is important. Will update. ==============================================
Short
by Re5drago
Sell NZD/USD at 0.6705 – Westpac Analysts at Westpac are recommending to sell NZD/USD pair at 0.6705 levels for the target price of 0.6500, while maintaining trailing a stop loss of 0.6800. Key Quotes “Rationale: We expect RBNZ to cut OCR by 25bp to 1.25% on 7 August, and signal potential for more. We expect a follow-up cut in November to 1.0%, with a risk this is delivered in September, and the OCR ultimately falls below 1.0%. Domestic activity is weaker than the RBNZ had forecast. Markets are pricing 20bp of easing in August, and 42bp by November, implying markets should fall further if our forecasts prove correct. NZ-US yield spreads have explained much of the NZD’s recent gains, but they should soon become a headwind: markets have priced in plenty for the Fed (100bp) but arguably not enough for the RBNZ. Technically, NZD/USD’s 3c rise since May looks corrective, and may be giving way to a revisit of May’s 0.6500 low.” www.fxstreet.com Above is the link to the original article. Shall there be any updates i will post them in the thread below. INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 0.6700 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 0.68000 TAKE PROFIT: 0.65000 RR: 1:1.9 TYPE: SHORT
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD - Short Setup in Play as RBNZ "considers" QENZD may be reversing. It's early days yet but the Bird fell after Bloomberg reported that the RBNZ is looking to refresh their unconventional policy strategy. “This year the Reserve Bank has begun scoping a project to refresh our unconventional monetary policy strategy and implementation. This is at a very early stage,” the RBNZ said in response to an Official Information Act request for work on non-standard policy measures. We like selling with feeder-stakes (small positions) at current levels, looking to add if the move grows legs.
Short
by Sam_Eder
Excellent SWING TRADE SHORT opportunity for NZDUSD!Have a look at the main chart, where the pennant on the weekly pattern has been broken!. At the moment both technical and fundamental factors are with this trade setup and the price will likely target the next support that lies at 0.64000 level. The above link leads to the trade setup details on this pair. Please read the related ideas section too on the fundamental analysis behind this trade ENTRY LEVEL: AROUND 0.67500 TAKE PROFIT: 0.64000' STOP LOSS: 0.70000 All in all its an excellent swing trade opportunity with very high probability. shall there be any updates i shall provide them in the attached link above. Please leave a LIKE and Follow me if you would like to receive further analysis and trade setups. cheers and thanks
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDCHF Aiming To Hit 0.63500 Level!Have a look at the main chart where the monthly TF shows the price confined in a long term triangle pattern which has been respected on numerous occasions, especially the upside trendline of the triangle. The EMA 50 has been respected too in this case and shall the monthly candle close below the 0.67000 level, we have a very good chance that this price will likely hit the next support that lies at 0.63500 level. I am already SHORT on the NZDUSD and i will not risk taking this trade for another SHORT as they are both heavily correlated! Nonetheless its a very good trade and overall we are likely to see NZD and AUD both depreciate this year. This just represents my outlook on this pair. shall i close the NZDUSD active trade early this pair would be my go to pair in the future. i will update the trade details if the criteria meets. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Testing Key Support in RBNZ News Technical View : ============== Key Support & Resistance Zones R: 0.6920 – 0.6970 S: 0.6680 – 0.6730 NZDUSD Breakout and stable 0.6670 level then touch 0.6720 level and more because Wednesday coming big news in NZD like : Official Cash Rate/ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement/ RBNZ Rate Statement / RBNZ Press Conference etc. Very important news for NZD. NZD moving depend on this news . GBPNZD / EURNZD big move on this news minimum 150/250 pips moving. so carefully trade this time . NEWS: ===== The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) survey concerning second quarter 2019 inflation expectations showed the price pressure to remain mostly unaffected at 2.01% versus the previous post of 2.02%. A monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could gain the immediate attention of the Kiwi traders as Australia is the largest customer of New Zealand. Also, it is expected that RBA’s rate-cut could be followed by the RBNZ’s rate change. Kiwi gave little reaction to inflation expectations amid trade news. RBNZ grabs the spotlight with GDT price index being an intermediate data to follow.
Short
by Saleh11
1
NZDJPY Likely To Drop Towards 69.000 IF the Support Breaks Looking at the chart, the monthly TF gives an overall technical perspective to where this pair might be headed. the three green lines are concrete support and resistance levels traced from the monthly charts. Shall the current or future candle (Monthly candle) close below the 73.000 level (green line support) we can confirm that the triangle has been breached and the price would likely fall towards 69.000 level thereafter. Fundamentally, the NZD is expected to loose most of its value this year as the economy is not doing too well plus the currency is highly overvalued against the USD too. This just represents my outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Time to price in market events, NZD weaknessNew Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply after the rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. There were no changes to monetary policy but they did make clear that the next move would be a rate cut. Market participants jumped on this open and clear language to capitalize and price in what would most likely happen in the near future. Trading the NZD could be done through a number of vehicles including the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Pound Sterling where the volatility is present and the sentiment is neutral. Currently NZDJPY has broken below the 200EMA and solidified there. The Yen will soak up any weakness the Kiwi may show in the time to come before the next interest rate decision from the RBNZ. A short trade could be enacted from the current price with a stop loss at the level of 75.58 and a take profit at 74.00
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
KIWI Too OVERVALUED Vs The USD! Will it Slump To 64 cents ?With the RBNZ already killing off the NZD by being more dovish than expected in their rate announcement yesterday, the kiwi fell against the USD overnight erasing in the process nearly 2 weeks gains!. For what many thought that the triangle has already broken to the upside just by the end of last week, it now seems it was a false breakout and rather unsurprisingly its now threatening to break the trendline of the triangle! If the break does occur, the price will aim to test the area that had been tested before in the previous swing some few months ago. 0.64000 becomes the immediate target of this potential breakout! Moreover fundamentally, the kiwi is too overvalued against the USD which is also visible in the both of their interest rates with USD having a more higher interest rate. This year the kiwi is being speculated to depreciate against the USD and this might start to happen once the trendline is broken. adding salt to the wounds, the RBNZ might even cut OCR in their nexr meeting which may very well trigger a small rally enough to dump the NZD and pile the selling pressure. The RR on this one is pretty good too (1:1.5). i am already SHORTING the NZDUSD but from the technical perspective its best to wait until the trendline breaks and retests before making an entry. this is just my analysis on this pair and its not a trading signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in the thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDCAD buy opportunity, SHS formingThe NZDCAD pair broke above a long-term trendline which has started in late 2016 and formed what looks like an inverse SHS pattern. A daily close above 0.9300 would mark the pattern as triggered and confirm a buy setup. This week's RBNZ rate meeting will likely create volatility in NZD pairs and either confirm our bullish bias or put the trade on hold. Like our analysis? Please hit the "Like" button and let us know your views in the comment section. Join us on Telegram -> t.me
Long
by MujkanovicFX