Get started

Rbnz

ridethepig | NZDJPY Market Commentary 2020.08.15So much for the round of chart updates...@ridethepig has been taking some time off this summer to prepare for a very busy September onwards. 📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much longer? A dovish RBNZ has provided us with a freeing move to the 59.5x lows with a clear direction from foreign asset purchases and -ve rates coming. => Firstly think of the curious circumstances we are looking at when analysing the global macro outlook. The blockade set via inflation and Yields usually turns out to be a severe recession in all respects: => Secondly the momentum is building and confirming the likely sustainability of the NZD outflows and JPY inflows as a double whammy. Positive momentum is coughing after six weeks of chop, this all embracing struggle, is only a means to an end. Remember the importance to strive for mobility, when your central bank confirms its lust to expand the overdraft and buy anything that moves overseas is always sending the currency in one direction. Also for those particularly interested in the region and given the divergence with positive Aussie macro data overnight, it’s no surprise to see AUDNZD continue the grind higher. Sooner or later the NZD capitulation will show itself in NZDJPY and the leg towards 59.5x has appeared. Invalidation in the board will come via a sustained breach above 73.3x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
12
EURNZD Buy Update - Upcoming RBNZ Interest RateWe have large NZD news coming up in a few hours @ 10 PM EST. Watch for a break above current consolidation range or a pull back to bottom of consolidation range. Bias direction is still upwards so I would only look to buy. Entry: Enter at breakout of consolidation range 1.7930 Enter at bottom of consolidation range 1.7723 TP 1 @ 1.7962 area TP 2 @ 1.8196 area Good luck trading! Please help like these free analysis so others may benefit from it. Let me know how I can help you. Charles V www.cvfxmanagement.com Trading made simple.
Long
by cvfxwealth
2
ridethepig | Dovish RBNZ Pricing & Commodity Shortages📍 RBNZ formula So what are we trading here? In this position it would be an obvious mistake to not acknowledge risk sentiment worsening over the weekend as cases continue to escalate, clearly the market is exposed to the storm (that is to say the series of localised lockdowns are a done-deal, the only question remains whether it becomes more widespread). On the monetary side, the correct flow to shelter from if things materially worsen (sadly looks inevitable) is the dovish RBNZ. After the latest meetings they have opened the window for a game changer on the stimulus front coming in August (via lowering domestic borrowing costs). Consider the situation on the AUD side of the equation: Commodity shortages are entering back into play via the Covid shock which is a prelude towards the monetary crisis. Gold, Iron Ore, Copper and etc all look set for further advance; it will keep the basis for some action to the topside in AUD via collateral. Here tracking closely 0.677x in AUDUSD and 0.637x in NZD as the line in sand for the cross. Look to ride AUDNZD up towards the 1.12 macro targets. As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURNZD Trade of the Week📌 In spite of the overshoots to the downside, what we are trading here is a sacrifice... the 'sad tale of the last seller'. I love it when sellers go overboard. Threatening to breakdown, without realising the RBNZ has opened the August window for more free money and NZD devaluation via purchases. The euro occupies the throne in G10 which the dollar has vacated.. We all have our eyes on unity on the fiscal side, and a change of scenery! The euro continues its dance. The purpose of this move is to put into action the debt mutualisation / consolidation. But the move versus USD is becoming more difficult as risk approaches the horizon via Covid. In any case... time for a nice late breakfast while positioning in a dangerous situation. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.07.02📍 NZDUSD : NFP Positional Play This is an example of an erroneous defence. In similar style to that of the GBPUSD position, the highs 0.652x can be defended, since it unlocks an impulsive position which is somewhat cramped via RBNZ adding more free money to the pot. Buyers attempt at breaching the highs should be opposed, we have risk in play via Covid and Brexit, not to mention bankruptcies around the globe skyrocketing. Dark clouds on the horizon despite how the politicians attempt to sell re-openings as 'independence'. NZD and High beta FX will struggle to rally as long as the market is still concerned about further lockdowns in Australia as NZ will follow their lead. Tracking the same “lines in the sand” with 0.677x AUDUSD and 0.637x NZDUSD. ⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates - RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn - Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn - BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn - HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn - TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn - BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn - Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn - BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn - Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn - Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn - Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn - Dealer Median: 3.4mn => So if we can sum up by saying, RBNZ is preventing NZD of moving higher and is of greatest important when considering a macro positional flow. On the other hand, USD seems more appropriate as a place to park until the storm passes. What we are talking about is outguessing extreme risk for the long weekend with the NFP knee-jerk flow. A very advanced and extremely bold call. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | EURNZD July Macro Swing📌 Here tickets are very cheap for those wanting to exploit the NZD weakness via dovish RBNZ. While on the European side, a direct consolidation of the debt, sacrificing Merkel to save the currency. Complex but totally tradable flows. => After the textbook move in EURUSD Euro crosses can almost equalise. In cramped consolidation, you cannot afford to give any easy entries, the false break ruins those soft retail expecting an easy move! Actively looking to build full positions at 1.7325 for the coming weeks and month. A long journey ahead with 1.78 as the main goal, in order to support as best it can the slingshot will move with direction action (instead of a zig-zag).
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Long-Term Macro Map 📍 NZDUSD Long Term Macro Map An ingenious saving move from buyers, which is extraordinarily difficult to defend. The slingshot, you should also note is an advance momentum play. These come around only once or twice in a cycle, in cramped positions you cannot afford to give opponents free tickets and allow them to make an easy ride. The shakeout was flawless, now buyers are in a much better position from the lows as anticipated: On the NZD macro side, it's the same story everywhere with consumer confidence in the red and credit card spending low. RBNZ bazooka doubled their purchasing program to 60bn NZD last month, while rates are starting to find a floor and look cooked here till 2021. Arden is a breath of fresh air, the handling of the crisis was superb - as New Zealand begin unwind the social distancing we can see the Kiwi find strong demand as her leadership has not gone unnoticed! Updates comes to the AUDNZD chart tomorrow, those who wish to make their fortunes in the crosses will have to wait till later in the week. The limits of 10 charts a day on @tradingview are proving restrictive in getting the entire board updated. In any case, the supple, flexible and sometimes sincere NZD targets for 2020 remain at 0.675x and 0.755x for 2021 respectively.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.05.26It is evident that a general round of profit taking for buyers is called for, it will act as a catalyst to kickstart a fresh leg into USD and provide a helping hand from markets to put -ve rates back on the table for Fed. One more time it is all eyes on Equities, if those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery lose their tempo we can see blood on the streets. The squeeze higher in NZDUSD is healthy into month end from a strictly positioning perspective. The USD Long boat was heavily loaded to one side and needed a shake-up. The sweep lower in AUD and NZD will demonstrate the exploitation of Keynsian economics. By pushing the USD bid the obvious collateral damage in EM FX and High Beta FX can easily lead to pressure on the inelasticity between Whitehouse / Fed combo. Watch-out for wild swings ahead, we can cover the flows live below.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Long AUD/NZD, targeting 1.1000Recent developments A dovish RBNZ policy announcement has been conducive to the pair's push to a six-month high. Further monetary policy of asset purchases over negative rates was largely expected. Technical analysis The pair has given back a bit since rallying at its fastest pace since 2014 (around 7% increase in just over a month). If it can break past previous 1.0850 key level, then there should be a chance to test 1.10 or at the very least trade up the channel with ease. Primary drivers for a further move up On the fundamental side, elevated risk sentiment on the backdrop of bottoming growth in markets, as well as the continued divergence between RBA and RBNZ should support the upward direction of the pair. Policymakers have remained quite dovish, which should be risk-positive as central banks have incentive to ease rather than tighten. With that being said, the RBNZ policy stance is looking more dovish than the RBA's. We can look at both policy stances and yield curves for an indication of what's to potentially come. The RBNZ have kept the official cash rate at 25 bp, while the base of asset purchasing have been expanded to a cap of NZ$60bn. Although the market seems to be pricing in negative rates, I don't think it's likely that we will see that, given that the RBNZ effectively guided that it won't happen (at least for this year - although this could be on the cards for 2021). Why lose all credibility on forward guidance when there are other methods of easing such as bond purchasing or fixed term loans? Either way, the base case is further easing and I would look towards August and June meetings as further catalysts if financial conditions tighten. On the contrary, the RBA has stopped purchasing bonds since early May after hitting 25 bp on the 3Y; keeping the curve at the current levels should be supportive to Australia, which remains a relatively high yielding Aaa country (despite slight rating downgrade). Risks Downside risk on AUD/NZD lie in 1) narrowing policy differentials, 2) risk sentiment softening, 3) and/or a more hawkish RBNZ that would lead to NZD strength, thus pushing the pair lower. As such, targeting top end of the channel 1.1000 with a stop of 1.05985.
Long
by Miloslaw
6
ridethepig | RBNZ To Cut!All eyes on RBNZ tonight, Equities globally are running out of steam and high beta FX looks set to suffer badly... the Governor has been very vocal around negative rates and protection via debt monetisation if necessary. Markets have quite the habit of unpinning Central Bank promises of late by choosing to apply maximum pressure. RBNZ will have to satisfy the following logic with a 15bps cut to seem credible. On the technical side, a simple breakdown in pure price can be played from the 0.610x handle. I am comfortable going into the meeting short, 0.618x is strong resistance and will keep stops protected, while to the downside 0.600x will serve a suitable initial target. The risk to the thesis comes from the RBNZ being unable to set the dovish stage correctly at this point in the game, the process of unpinning can be seen from quite a different angle. Good luck.
Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.05.12A normal move, but one which has a deeper meaning after the Chinese ban on Australian beef. Here tracking closely 0.650x resistance to mark another important high here. It is a clearly loud signal on the foreign policy side of their relationship considerably weakening, the Giant Panda (PBOC) who was once always on the AUD bid has taken cover. While Australia may be better positioned than many in terms of case numbers, it is in no way advisable to emphasise this too much. We are still tracking the same forecasts set out last month: " Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers It looks like we are set for a re-opening this summer and for schools in the West to go back in September. We will keep a close eye together on whether the inflows dry up, and will it be for long? We'll see. For now keeping a defensive stance, when equities roll over we will have a clearly defined swing and range in play for the rest of 2020. " Remember any hell-bent strategy on buying AUD, without taking into consideration the risks around the fallout of the West with China and their own domestic relationship will end badly. Protectionism, like a garden of weeds, will continue to force globalisation into retreat and wreak havoc! On the technical side, 0.650x is strong resistance and with US Equities S&P sitting under the 3,000 level we have all the 'green lights' for a second selloff in risk markets. I am actively adding AUDUSD shorts at 0.650x with stops above the double top at 0.660x.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.04.28Across the commodity block, NZD is looking the weakest and most vulnerable with negative rates entering into the picture. This looks unavoidable now and makes NZD the more preferred short across G10 crosses. The resistance is weakly protected as we enter into FED fact territory, the market was a little too long USD and I understand the need for a healthy cleanse, however, the move looks overdone here as I am not expecting any further cuts tomorrow. Equities will hate the bad news, and high beta FX will be first out of the door... last orders at the bar!? On the technical side, strong resistance is located here at the 0.605x - 0.607x region and is the one to track for those wanting to position for FED and a further leg lower in risk markets. The goal for sellers is in protecting these highs and defending any real seizure of the advance, an initial target at the mid point to pay for risk at 0.600x and an extension towards 0.592x is in play for a simple range clear with the CB event. A break below the 0.592x lows will call into question the macro slingshot target at 0.49xx.... INSANE!!! From a macro perspective as soon as your CB unlocks negative rates or foreign asset purchases its game over! You have taken on a well hidden exchange sacrifice. Smart money will exploit it, a slingshot is in play later in the year but will require another sweep of the lows via Covid panic flows into USD ... For those waiting to buy the bird from a long-term perspective, not recommended till the end game in this current leg should we pay any attention towards the development arise. Good luck all those positioning across G10 FX for FED flows, thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.03.19Divergence in AUD and NZD beginning to widen as large hands dump AUD and pile into NZD. Cases are relatively low in NZ which will keep the RBNZ from going negative, watch-out for AUDNZD breaking parity in the coming sessions. The analysis of the starting position shows us the slingshot is ready to conduct a flanking manoeuvre, but also a quick-witted seller: the exhaustion leg we are tracking can save it from the worst. As long as the 0.49xx lows are in focus, the slingshot can be administered. In this case, the breakdown is coming from Chinese inflows taking a walk, who have been suddenly threatened like a deer in the headlights; (1) AUDCNH (2) NZDCNH After the flash crash the board has been cleared and the lows are naked for sellers to deliver the fatal blow. Instead of a breakdown, we should look to fade these lows. What it means is we have all the ingredients in the pot for a huge rally once we clear the coronavirus flows; so what we need to track market-wise are two 🔑 components: 1️⃣ French & Italian numbers declining 2️⃣ Focus shifting from fatalities to recoveries Remember in terms of markets we are trading perception. This expectation of panic looks set to continue till month-end, I am no expert in virology but from talking to some Chief Exec’s at hospitals on the ground there is a sense that virologists have created something sensational here which is opening the door to overreaction and hype from governments and unlocking (btw in all the wrong places) doors they never thought were possible on both the fiscal and monetary side. Stress in funding markets continues, as long as this remains the case then USD will stay in strong demand until the storm passes, as capital rushes to the doors. AUDUSD - Macro Updates via Coronavirus Impact SHCOMP - Chinese Equities Whatever may be the case, this game is beautiful, as beautiful as it gets. There is a battle of major flows underway, USD will remain bid till we can clear these dark clouds of corona-panic. Or, to put more simply, returning to the starting position creates an easier flow TA-wise that will give buyers an opportunity to grab tempo. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and etc coming....What interesting times we are in!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.
Short
by Anatta0
1
NZDUSD: RBNZ On The WayThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely give the Kiwi a boost of volatility in the upcoming Asia session with its latest statement on monetary policy. Expectations are for no change this month as recent economic data has been net positive, and as they wait to see the full extent of damage the COVID-19 is set to do to the world economy. The scenario to watch out for is a more dovish-than-expected RBNZ and reversal pattern back to the downtrend after the event for the bearish market. For the bullish bias, any rhetoric lowering the odds of a potential rate cut this year will likely draw in buying support for the Kiwi, at least for the short-term as recent sessions have shown global positive risk sentiment as the main driver for the financial market. One news which might have earlier sparked some volatility on comdolls could be "WHO's Tedros, the first vaccine for COVID-19 (coronavirus) could be ready in 18 months".
by Anatta0