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Rbnz

Pound/Gold ratio: Trend ongoingIn this chart I describe the relationship between gold, the pound and kiwi. I think we have a very strong trend going, which hasn't ended. It's highly possible that the gold EW count in the related ideas pans out, which would correlate with the bullish signals I obtain from the gbp/nzd and gbp/gold charts using time at mode. Initially, we had a correction after exceeding my forecasted target, as outlined in my previous GBPNZD chart (also in related ideas) but I don't think the move is done yet. Today we had lots of bullish gold publications, lots of technical traders calling bottoms, even myself for a minute but I'm not so sure anymore. Not with this background and the lower timeframe analysis of the move from the lows. I think we will have to wait for any kind of longer term reversal, and for now I'd suggest waiting for GBPNZD to get oversold to buy it, and waiting for gold rallies to fade them,same with the Kiwi. As a sidenote, I believe it's highly probable to see an intermediate bottom form in the near term, but it won't happen today. I'll monitor the RBNZ decision, we might have good opportunities on the short side very soon. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPNZD: the beginning of a longterm uptrendThis is my time at mode analysis of this pair. Currently kicking off with a strong uptrend off a longterm mode. The horizontal lines map different areas of high volume from the past, which were 'fair value' at one given time. They are magnetic in nature and offer valuable clues as to where price will move, or where price will stop and reverse. In Elliott Wave terms, there's a clear impulse in sight, but I'm not 100% sure about its construction. Quoting my friend's Nick Coulby's work, this might be the start of the 3rd wave, inside a larger 5 wave structure. This could always resolve into a series of nested 1-2,1-2 impulses that end up in an explosive move up, so I'll just focus on buying the correction completion.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPNZD: Potential range tradeWe have a confluence of signals indicating a long is possible from this area. We got: Key hidden levels options expirations support Downtrend signal that probably won't be reached in time. (if not reached = bullish!) RgMov in an uptrend since the inverted head and shoulders in jangseohee's chart formed. Also showing fibonacci levels of support at play. (It can be used to detect trends and sentiment very well, great tool) CCI showing a hidden divergence and quarterly ROC showing an uptrend. Price action suggests this oversold spike down reached its end, specially if we break above the last daily bar's high. Feel free to comment, and take this trade as well...Keep in mind price can extend down to meet my forecasted time at mode downtrend target by April 17th. I don't think it will, but it can. Targets would be between 1.97 and 1.99 in a strong surge, but it can extend higher. Stops are to be placed based on your own criteria, always follow your methodology, this is nothing more than a trade journal. Good luck!
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPNZD: Correction spottedThis is an interesting chart. I was under the impression that this was a running correction intially but the recent price action makes me think otherwise. The majority of the people are expecting a rate cut this week, during the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. With heavy UK data coming out tomorrow, volatility is a given and I think the bigger risk/reward ratio will be on the short side. Looking to short this week, using the 4h chart for entry, and scaling in as we move forward. I'll update with my entry and scale ins once the trade is active. This trade would serve as a hedge for GBPUSD longs. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedgeWe have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode. Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down. Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long. See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
Channel resistance to be watched on kiwi dollar following RBNZTwo weeks ago, I suggested that the kiwi dollar could stop falling (after 12 consecutive weeks of declines against the US dollar) as a long term support at $0.65 was being tested. Prices are back up to $0.6515 just before the RBNZ rate statement later today. The consensus expects another 25 bp cut in the main refinancing rate to 3.00%. The latest cut took the markets by surprise in June, but I'm a bit skeptical of a strong movement downward this time around given that it may already be priced in (this doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a kiwi rally following the statement. To me, what really matters is the language in the press release. I don't expect much of a change from the June statement, but it is very likely that the RBNZ maintains an overall dovish stance with regards to inflation expectations given continued decline in commodities prices since June. The GlobalDailryTrade (GDT) price index (www.globaldairytrade.info) fell to all-time lows on 15 July, which may weigh further on New Zealand export prices. In the event that the RBNZ doesn't announce a rate cut today, I'll still maintain a fundamental bearish bias on the kiwi dollar and will look for any additional dovish information in the press release to support this view. As for technicals, so long as prices trade below $0.67 following the rate statement, short strategies may come back into play. If prices test the channel resistance (currently around $0.67) with rates unchanged, this is where I'd be looking for further dovish hints in the press release to really consider a short trade (initial target at $0.65 with stop above $0.6750). Conclusion : technicals and fundamentals may line back up following the RBNZ statement today, providing new opportunities to short the kiwi dollar.
Short
by ABRAK75
14
Pair trade: Short NZDUSD, Long GBPUSDI'll open a pair trade to minimize risk in my GBPUSD long setup. There's a weekly sell opportunity in the NZDUSD chart, which will give me a relatively low risk entry as per my analysis that gold isn't done falling, and that NZDUSD (and GBPNZD will resume the trend they are in). Position size is based on the ADR figures for both pairs, risking 2% and aiming for the targets on chart. There will be no stop loss, so, if you find this idea attractive, take the trade at your own risk. GBPUSD's ADR: 112.7 pips NZDUSD's ADR: 89.7 pips Thus, I'll open two positions, adjusting the NZDUSD one by 1,25x to match the GBPUSD volatility. The setup on chart shows a conservative SL in case you'd rather trade it individually. Good luck, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
51
AUDNZD: Time and price target for a reversalOk, some traders noticed this vertical advance and want to short it. I do too, but not for now. I'll wait for confirmation before going short, but it looks like a potentially very good trade. It's reassuring that we are at the start of a new quarter, and many trends will start to reverse, and many pairs will come out of consolidation patterns as money managers take profits to show results to their investors, and also, the Grexit drama rears its ugly head once again, during tonight's Asia/London session. I'm considering this trade, once the price in the daily and 4h charts confirm the entry. For now, keep a close watch to both time and price, since this zone is critical in my view. I'll update the chart with my entry. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
NZDUSD: Bottom might be inLooking to go long NZDUSD on a retracement to my buy zone. The trade will be split in three orders. Stops will be directly under the low for one of them, below the red line on the chart, and slightly below the last bar open (factoring in the spread). This is a higher risk trade, but potential rewards make up for the exposure. I will risk 1% on the setup, and scale in with smaller 0.5% risk batches if I get more opportunities. Since the time at mode downtrend target hasn't been reached, nor the time expired, it might be a long shot, but I feel it's a good opportunity to jump the gun, based on the weekly chart divergent low, and the FOMC induced 4h bar, as well as the levels where price stopped falling at. If we move above the monthly mode with confidence, this might be the start of a strong uptrend. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
27
EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approachInteresting observations about EURNZD, if you are long from the bottom, good for you! But where do you take profits? Where do you scale in or how do you trail stops? Good questions that depend on your own methodology. Here, I'm seeing multiple hints for a possible top in this relentless rally. Everyone's pessimistic about the New Zealand Dollar, which makes me want to do the opposite...but how do I justify it? In the chart we can see a potential Elliott Wave count and time analysis, which guess what? Matches my time at mode uptrend signal. An AB=CD measured target of swings gives us a projected top where wave A and B would be equal in size...Now, if this were indeed A and C and the correction in the middle was a wave B expanded flat, then this would be a possible top for this rally. Moving on, the time at mode profile balance point lies a bit higher than the AB=CD, and projected zigzag top (as long as wave C is 1:1 with wave A and not an extended wave C...or God forbid, an incomplete and huge wave 3, which would be very strange, but not impossible). The range target has been exceeded, and I'm positive there's an overwhelming number of NZD bears, and with the modes becoming smaller after the middle one with 11 bars, I wouldn't attempt a daily chart long here, too risky. So, what to do? You know the drill...Let's sit and wait for a confirmed short entry instead. -unless you have time in your hands and can trade lower timeframes like my friend Nick Coulby, who's sitting in a profitable lower tf long). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDUSD: Interesting contrarian point of viewI'm looking at NZDUSD as a potentially long trade, why I decided to chart the inverse pair, USDNZD to change the perspective a bit. What I see is a potential large short* opportunity (*in USDNZD) , if the profile balance point proves to be a reversal level, and the distribution becomes a normal one, forming a bell curve shape. (respective to the time spent at price profile, a technique I learned from Tim West). The rate cut formed a very wild outside bar, which isn't clearly bullish, yet it happened at a very volatile juncture, inside a 10 bar mode. The shape of the pattern is looking like an expanding triangle, but I'm not sure of the EW specifics. For the time being, I'll watch this pair for short trade setups, and will update the thread if I see a good opportunity. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
AUDNZD medium termAs the fundamental situation is changing I am looking to join the new up trend building. RBNZ last year was rising rate and now they are thinking to cut, on the other hand RBA after the last cut is becoming more neutral. Technically this cross has made a new higher high coming from an all time low, at the moment it looks too stretched and in need of a technical retracement. At the end of the retracement I'll be a buyer. I'll try to buy as low as possible to be able to place my stop loss below the all time low and keep my R:R higher than 1:1
Long
by DoNotFolloWmE
5
EURNZD: Time at mode uptrend signal expires in one dayAs you can see in the chart, we have had a strong bullish move from the lows after breaking a highest low trendline. Right now, there's risk of a broad depreciation of the euro vs stronger currencies, in particular vs the higher yielding Kiwi and the dollar, naturally. After crude oil started correcting, most euro, chf and gbp pairs started strong bullish legs, but we might be nearing said legs' end. The last uptrend target signal in the daily will expire after tomorrow's NY close, suggesting a possible reversal or correction. Other interesting facts: -Ichimoku shows chikou span hitting cloud resistance, which is very bearish. -Price just hit a previous mode, a strong resistance area. The idea is shorting under the highest daily low once that happens. Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
9
EURNZD: Wave 1-2-3, done, now?This is a time at mode analysis of the current EURNZD uptrend. We have an uptrend time expiration in 2 bars and CCI divergence in the recent top, whilst also seeing the highest low level taken by the last down bar. On top of this, price reached and exceeded the target ahead of time, by three times the projected range, which tells me it's currently overbought. Sellers might be in control for the time being. Using EW rules, we could conclude the next wave should be a sharp correction, but I'll refrain from taking a guess here. I want to take the long side, If there's a short opportunity I'll use the downtrend to time my long entry. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
NZDCHF: Monthly map - Potential long term NZD weakness aheadInformational chart only. If we cross the level price sits at confidently, we might retest lower areas, around the 0.63043 mark. I'll update with a shorter timeframe short entry. Currently in the middle of a very strong decline with no pause. Looks to be impulsive behavior after a long term consolidation. The triangle in CCI is wild speculation, but makes me think this consolidation phase is over. Among other factors, derived from observing multiple currency pairs.
by IvanLabrie
9