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Rbnz

A Close Above Daily EMA 50 Might Take EURNZD To 1.69000 level !1.65000 level represents the concrete support level drawn from the Monthly charts, which has been clearly rejected and the price now aims at breaking the channel that it is confined in and close above the daily 50 EMA! A convincing close above daily 50 EMA needs to take place, thereby giving further confluence that the price is headed towards the 1.69000 level! 1.69000 level is the area where the weekly 50 EMA is present and can often act as a dynamic support and resistance and therefore our target would be that level. In the future if the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA we can opt to take this pair further LONG to the next resistance (THE RED LINES ON THE CHART) On the fundamental aspects the AUD and NZD are both set to depreciate this year with the reason being they are too overvalued at the time. I feel a drop in NZD against the USD will likely happen soon and this will inturn have great impact on the EURNZD too. It remains to be seen if the technical aspects meet in the coming days. shall there be any trade entries i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
NZD shorts against JPY longs in a rising-rate worldWe have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today... Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact. => The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these flows, however we see this knee jerk reaction to be over and an opportunity to load shorts. => Any possibility of hikes from RBNZ has been pushed back well into 2021 and given the length of time between now and then, we have plenty of room to continue playing the downside in NZD. On the technical side of things a test of the two support levels seems a done deal and for those looking to add AUDJPY shorts to the basket too we have attached the related idea with our key levels. Initial targets found at 74.2 with our second target 72.7 within reach. Please continue your support with a thumbs up or comment and thanks for helping us continue to grow further. Best of luck.
Short
by ridethepig
NZDJPY: Daily uptrend...$NZDJPY has a nice chart signal here, we have already entered longs, but it may give us a second chance to enter or add to longs on dips today or tomorrow. Stops have to be at least below today's open, or slightly lower. Target range is detailed on chart, both time and price. I guess $XAUUSD will be sideways or down for a few days, while $USDJPY rallies. Tomorrow Powell will give a speech, and the RBNZ will publish a monetary policy statement and interest rates decision, as well as publishing inflation expectations data. The $NZDJPY crooss pair offers a more interesting vehicle to ride the move in #USDJPY with better risk/reward than the majors. You could try to capture upside in risk on assets, the $NZDUSD, or $AUDUSD pairs, or shorting risk off assets, but it might be riskier than this trade...specially considering the relative strength of the New Zealand dollar vs the Aussie dollar for instance (which made me choose this pair over the $AUDJPY counterpart which might also be viable). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
RBNZ & RBABy Andria Pichidi - February 13, 2019 RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. RBNZ reiterated its pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. "The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down", they repeated. The statement for keeping rates low, for longer than what has been stated so far, along with the statement that OCR could move either way, came in contrast with the highly dovish stance that markets anticipated. This explains Kiwi's spike, with NZDUSD jumping to 0.6851 from 0.6730 ahead of the announcement and during the conference session. RBNZ seems to be following a similar policy path to the RBA. Last week, RBA announced steady rates  at 1.50%, whilst its statement was consistent with no change in the current rate setting through 2019. Overall, the RBA maintained its view that inflation will eventually pick up, although it will take a bit longer than anticipated. Given the Fed's dovish shift, the risk was for the RBA to take a decidedly dovish turn, which Lowe and company did not. Despite the similarity between RBNZ and RBA, New Zealand continues to present an overall fair to middling economy with prospects of any kind of policy changes, as the labour market strengthens and inflation is nearly at the mid of the 1-3% target. This comes in contrast to the Australian economy, which looks erratic given sharp property price declines, despite the "strong" labour market. Furthermore, Aussie's future performance depends greatly on how the Chinese economy evolves, given the strong symbiotic link the Australian economy has with China's. Markets remain in a cautious state due to the current US-China trade talks, which presents binary risk for the Aussie given China's outsized demand for Australian exports. AUD has been trending lower over most of the last year, having declined about 12-13% over this period, largely as a consequence of the eruption of the US-China trade war. On the other hand, Kiwi's future performance is not highly linked to China since the NZ economy is not as exposed to a Chinese slowdown as Australia. Consequently, despite the common policy stance between New Zealand and Australia, all the above arguments suggest that NZD is likely to remain stable in comparison to AUD, something that could give AUDNZD a downleg until it gradually breaches a possible parity. Levels to be watched, starting from immediate to long term Support levels are : 1.0395, 1.0370, 1.0320, 1.0235. Resistances come at 1.055, 1.0667 and 1.0712. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Bullish Gartley Completed On Weekly Chart NZDCHF. Still Valid!On the weekly charts of NZDCHF The bullish gartley was completed 4 weeks ago but however the pattern is still valid. It has to be understood that harmonic patterns do NOT immediately reverse from the point D, they need time and market reaction in the real world is everything. i am awaiting for some technical confirmation before taking this trade on. The risk to reward seems to be very healthy too on this one. stay tuned Long term harmonics pattern are very reliable and i will be keeping a close eye on this one.
Long
by FX618Analysis
SELL NZD ON DIVERGENT MONETARY POLICY"We recommend selling NZDUSD targeting 0.7130 with a stop-loss at 0.7315, implying a reward-to-risk ration of 2:1 (spot reference: 0.7252). In stark contrast to the Fed, the RBNZ is likely to strike a dovish tone in its March Statement, given recent disappointing activity data. Following the February MPS meeting, Assistant Governor and Chief Economist, John McDermott, noted in an interview with Bloomberg that while the central bank’s stance was neutral with “a significant probability that the next rate move could be an increase sometime in the future” he added “there’s also a substantial probability that the next move could actually be a cut. If we saw big moves in inflation expectations, the market should expect the bank to act.” As noted above, NZD may experience further downward pressure if a more hawkish Fed creates an environment of higher US interest rates and weaker equities, given that its high sensitivity to these variables will likely be exacerbated by a lack of real rate advantage, FX overvaluation, and a highly responsive government bond market." - BARCLAYS
Short
by itzbert
AUDNZD: 2017 AU$ appreciated +600 pips Low to High before MarchFX:AUDNZD Someone called me 'dramatic' I just love it! Let's keep having fun while 'banking' a more dimmes (Ocean Thirteen). Sure, going back to the idea. 1)Last year, between January and April this cross appreciate 660-pips from the low in Jan. 1.0323 handle to the high in March 1.1017 handle. 2)What if it continues, after all, RBA seems to be eager to move soon to reduce households debt and tight a bit over there. Yes, you haven't heard, right? Well, It seems Real Estate went out of control in Sydney and now consumers are far too in debt (where have I seen this...?) 3)NZ$ as usual, vulnerable on the dairy front, milk not milking it. 4)A primitive analysis I know, but could 2018 be the 'Continuation Year' not too different from the $EURUSD or $GBPUSD long trades. 5)I should be playing this with a full standard lot, just for the records.
Long
by josericaurte.jaen
AUDNZD - 240 Pips Upside TargetAfter an impulsive bullish move on 19th October, price has been developing correctively, and has hit the minimum target for a decent retracement between 50% and 61.8%. As long as price remains above the structural trend line, we remain bullish on AUDNZD and can potentially target 1.1332 area. We are having the RBA and RBNZ Rate Statement this week which might provide us the catalyst to move price. Disclaimer - make sure you have a proper trading plan before taking any trades.
Long
by KarYong
4
NZDUSD - Bearish Bias Going Into RBNZ Rate StatementThe focus for this week will definitely be on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), a.k.a the Kiwi. The New Zealand’s central bank – the Reverse Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be releasing their latest Official Cash Rate and the Rate Statement this Thursday. Since the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%, the key will be the tone of the Rate Statement. A dovish tone will see more selling pressure on the NZD; while a hawkish tone will see the NZD being support by the bulls. Based on our analysis, we are holding a bearish bias on the NZD. Since late July this year, the NZDUSD has fallen from the high at 0.7557 to the low at 0.7131 in a 5-wave structure; and has since bounced higher towards the recent high at 0.7434 in a 3-wave structure. According to Elliott Wave Principle, a complete price cycle comprises a 5-wave move, followed by a 3-wave correction. With that, the correction in NZDUSD is deemed to be completed, and we are now expecting more downside potential for this currency pair.
Short
by KarYong
NZDUSD - RBNZ to be the catalyst to push the Kiwi lower?This week there are relatively less risk events in the currency market - the only one worth highlighting is RBNZ Rate Statement happening on Thursday morning here in Singapore. Here are a few reasons why I'm expecting the Kiwi to weaken in the near term - 1) We are currently in a 6th swing, thus we are expecting one more move lower since this is not a complete swing cycle; 2) Price has met the minimum fibonacci requirement for an expanding flat structure; 3) Price is currently at the top of the bearish channel; and 4) On the lower timeframe, price is also showing signs of exhaustion. With these simple technical analysis, I have a stronger bias in looking for shorting opportunities on NZDUSD rather than longing it. However, do take note that this are only my personal views and I may jolly well be wrong too :P So trade according to your plan and manage your risk ALWAYS! **Quiz - what other information or 'edge' can we get to enhance our analysis on the NZD?
Short
by KarYong
6
Retracement Off Dovish RBNZ StatementThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand was surprisingly more Dovish than expected. This caused the price of all NZD pairs to weaken. This is a simple trade. Wait for the price to retrace and then hop in. There are two good spots: 1.58500 & 1.58050. These are the 28.6% and 38.2% Fib Retracement levels and they are previous support/resistance lines on the hourly chart. The entry at 1.58500 is the more risky of the two; however, it is also more likely to occur. I am targeting 1.6000 as my take profit, as that was the high last week. And, I have my Stop loss below the 61.8% fib level. As that level is also a previous support/resistance level: 1.5735
Long
by basquefxb1
NZDUSD: Interesting setupI'm entering gradually into a long position here. $NZDUSD has built a significant monthly mode here, which could evolve into a breakout and eventual monthly uptrend. The weekly is neatly oversold into support, and flashed a buy signal courtesy of RgMov, so going long gradually here is a good idea. Don't risk much, I would consider a drop below 0.689 a good invalidation level for this trade. 4h and daily charts show potential for a rally as well, so you could see rapid progress within a couple days, hence, you should average in during 3 days until you have maxed the risk on the trade. Risk a maximum of 0.5-1%. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
To seek short entry point on NZDUSD In this week, there have important economy events which flow through into NZD performance. On Tuesday (London trade time), GDT index will be published. After 2 continuous negative changed on GDT index, expected it will not be good reading in this time. Then, RBNZ rate announcement will be on Thursday (Asia trade time). According to market consensus, its rate will remained unchanged and RBNZ keep their view on NZ inflation lower expectation. If not hawkish sign appear on its statement, NZD shall be depreciated on the time prior to next rate announcement on May.
Short
by AdamHeng