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Bitcoin Daily Update - Day 49 (0.3816 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge When there is a nice pump in the crypto markets I like to look for laggards. The best one that I am seeing right now is Bitcoin Cash. Many will be thinking that it simply will not bounce because it is such a piece of shit fundamentally, however that is not my perception. I do think it is a complete piece of shit, but I also think it will bounce with the market. It is one of the most emotional coins out there - meaning the holders are doing so out of emotion and the stayers away are doing so because of emotion. Where there is emotion there is an opportunity to profit imo. Bitcoin Cash is a prime example of this. I really like the idea of taking profit on the positions that are moving in my favor and reallocating that into coins that appear to be lagging behind. That was essentially what I was able to do with LTC and then ETH. Hopefully the third time is also a charm! This brings up an important topic for me. I believe in technical analysis so much that I am comfortable disregarding the ticker. Who cares what the ticker is if the chart looks bullish af? I certainly don't. There is limitations once the market becomes too illiquid but I do not feel like that is the case with BCH. Hopefully I will change my mind sometime later this year due to a mass exodus. The overall bankroll is still not looking pretty but the unrealized profit currently sits at +0.333 BTC. I am very hopeful that this run can bring me back above 1 BTC for my trading challenge. If that happens then I will be in a very good position to get back into the green by shorting the bounce once it becomes exhausted. All we need is a little momentum and completing this challenge is still very well within reason! Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 6,300 XRP / 0.522 BTC Price: $0.307 Stop: $0.2959 Risk: 3.61% Partial Take Profit Order: $0.35 Unrealized Profit: +0.02911 BTC Long LTCH19 Exposure: 12 LTC / 0.113 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.0111 Realized PnL: +0.0607 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0177 BTC *Entered stop order to add 23 LTC at 0.01291 with 0.01164 stop loss Long XBTM19 Exposure: $4,232 / 1.07 BTC Enter: $3,586 Stop: $3,586 Realized PnL: +0.0085 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.1009 BTC Long ETHUSD #1 Exposure: 11.64 ETH / 0.43 BTC Enter: $122 Stop: $128 Realized PnL: +0.0374 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.071 BTC Long ETHUSD #2 Exposure: 12 ETH / 0.444 BTC Enter: $116.63 Stop: $128 Unrealized PnL: +0.0888 BTC Long BCHUSD Exposure: 3.5 BCH / 0.1302 BTC Enter: $125.55 Stop: $125.55 Unrealized PnL: +0.018 BTC Open Order Stop Order to Long BCHH19 Exposure: 11 BCH / 0.4366 BTC Enter: 0.0384 Stop: 0.0399 Risk: 11.4%
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 39 (0.3077 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It has been a while since the last update to the trading challenge and that is for good reason. It is not because I am losing motivation or getting discouraged, it is because these markets have been locked in ranges and I have been patiently waiting for a trend. With very little entering / exiting being done I did not see the need for a daily post. My intention is to record my trading results in real time, and I have realized that daily updates are not needed to accomplish that goal. The challenge did not start how I wanted and I was beating myself in the moment. However in hindsight I do not feel back about my performance at all. I have been trading crypto, FOREX and SPXUSD primarily and I would be highly impressed by anyone who made money in those markets thus far in 2019. Crypto was sideways, FOREX was very chopping and provided many false signals / whipsaws (at least for USD pairs). The S&P slicing right through $2,650 on tiny volume still makes 0 sense to me. Now that I have some positions moving in my favor I am hopeful that we can get this challenge out of the gutter. I am expecting a big rally in crypto due to alts bouncing from major horizontal support and total market cap supporting above $100B. I have built a good amount of long exposure, relative to remaining bankroll, and I still have ~33% on the sidelines waiting to add if the positions continue to move in my favor. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,200 XRP / 0.104 BTC Price: $0.299 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 7.07% Long LTCH19 Exposure: 43 LTC / 0.40678 BTC Price: 0.00946 Stop: 0.00947 Long WTIUSD Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.1966 BTC Price: $55.30 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Long XBTM19 Exposure: 0.311 BTC Enter: $3,392 Stop: $3,224 Risk: 4.9% Long XBTUSD Exposure: $5,000 / 1.384 BTC Enter: $3,612.50 Stop: $3,584 Risk: 0.78% Open Order Order to add to XRPUSD Long Stop Entry: $0.32267 Stop Loss: $0.2839 Risk: 11.8% Exposure: 0.29 lots / 2,929 XRP / 0.2548 BTC Order Entered to long ETHUSD Stop Entry: $125.9 Stop Loss:$108.9 Risk: 13.6% Exposure: 4.8 ETH / 0.1538 BTC Order to open long on BCHUSD Stop Entry: $131.26 Stop Loss; $112.95 Risk: 13.94% Exposure: 3.05 lots / 3.05 BCH / 0.107 BTC Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry. BCHUSD Notes: Breaking through ~ 6 week TL, like how daily MA’s are coming together in Consensio. $400 is obvious target, however looking at W SAR & 24 W MA in $300 neighborhood as area to scale out. Can get back in if break W SAR.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 31 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Over the past week or two I have not seen any setups that interest me. I am wanting to get this challenge back on track and my hands were tied while there were not any desirable entries. Doing this challenge publicly makes me feel anxious to get back into positions but I know that becoming impatient is the last thing I can afford to do right now. To ensure that is not happening I have been significantly decreasing exposure and trying my best to wait for the best possible setups. Once I see a setup that I really like then I am waiting an extra day before entering and then I am preferring to use stop entries to make sure market is moving in my favor. Trading can be a fickle bitch and it is very much a game of: what have you done lately? It is one thing to not be results oriented while trading, but if taken too far that can clout judgement and cause delusional beliefs in one's ability. I try my best to always remain objective and that requires constantly examining / learning from my mistakes. There were certainly some significant mistakes that were made over this past month that I am paying close attention to. January Worst Dressed Trade USDTRY I got overconfident and overexposed myself before the trade moved in my favor. I love starting small to test the market and make sure that it is heading in my favor, then only adding once I have increased confidence in the trend. In this case I started with closer to 50% of my desired position size than 5%. On one hand I do not want to be results oriented, because this did have a very high probability of success and when trading hyperwaves buying a pullback to phase 3 is the best entry. 85% of hyperwaves in phase 3 go onto complete the cycle. On the other hand this one was a bit funky and I firmly believe it was a mistake to enter the position size that I did that early on in the game. The large majority of my losses over the past month have come from being bullish the dollar and bearish the stock market. I am tentatively starting to turn bearish the USD and I am staying tf away from the stock market until I understand more what is going on there. Gold, Silver and Palladium are very, very interesting right now. I am expecting a 1 - 4 week pullback from here and will be hoping to find high probability long entries during that time. Open Positions Short XRPUSD Exposure: 1,000 XRP / 0.081 BTC Price: $0.30791 Stop: $0.27784 Risk: 9.76% Short USDJPY Exposure: 0.04 lots / 1.1782 BTC Price: $108.79 Stop: $110.056 Risk: 1.06% Pending Orders (1) LTCH19 stop buy entered on 1/30 Exposure: 27 LTC / 0.24867 BTC Price: 0.00921 Stop: 0.00824 Risk: 10.53% (2) Stop order to long WTIUSD entered on 1/31 Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.195 BTC Price: $55.26 Stop: $51.39 Risk: 7% Watchtower XAU Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter. XAG Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div. Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry. ETHBTC Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support. Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 28 (0.3718 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge My short on Gold was stopped out on 1/25 and that brings the losing streak to ten in a row. I have booked ten losing trades in a row before, probably more times than I can count on one hand, however I cannot remember the last time that I was this surprised / frustrated by the markets. Starting with the S&P 500 short: I was as confident as I could reasonably be that $2,600 - $2,650 would hold as resistance. The rapidly decreasing volume and confluence of overbought indicators provided strong confirmation. Watching the price cut through that area like a knife through butter was and is very hard for me to wrap my head around. If there was a volume spike it would make sense, but there was not and I am still left scratching my head. USD:TRY Long: Coming into 2019 I had labeled this my most confident long out of a list of ~ 20 markets I planned to trade this year. There wasn't really a close second, this was the trade that I was most excited about. I started small and intended to bet huge. I didn’t get the chance to add on nearly as much as I planned and this trade has still been my most costly of the year. From highest hopes to biggest loser is very frustrating. To add insult to injury it looks like there is a high chance that I got stopped out on a shakeout before the breakout. XAU:USD Short: Those two trades above confused me more than any trade I took in 2018 and this one might take the cake. I still cannot believe that Gold closed above $1,300 and it makes me wonder if the selloff this summer was a massive shakeout before the next breakout. There was a ton of built up resistance at that area and the price was extremely overbought by the time it got there. It got so overbought that it formed a 5 month parabolic advance. I patiently waited for that to breakdown before entering my short. That rally on Friday was absolutely mind boggling. After breaking down the parabolic advance it goes on to make a +1.71% move in one day and close the daily above: the 8 year bear TL, the 4 year bull TL that we broke down in July which was expected to act as resistance on a throwback as well as $1,300 horizontal resistance. When this type of crazy volatility occurs it is likely foreshadowing the next big move. Markets love to shakeout traders before making a big move and I certainly just got shook the fook out! Instead of licking my wounds it is time to stay on red alert and be ready to trade either side of the markets. The following is a very common pattern: tight consolidation -> shakeout -> massive trend. Taking a relatively small loss before capitalizing on a big trend is a large part of what profitable trading is all about. However, if the shakeout causes me to become gun-shy or trepidatious then it could cause me to miss the following trend and that mentality is disastrous. Times like this remind me of a quote from my late father: “Sometimes the lights get turned out and there is seemingly nothing that you can do to turn them back on.” During times like this all I can do is focus on diligently managing risk and maintaining a strong belief that the wins will eventually take care of themselves. I am decreasing my position size as a way to preserve my bankroll while I attempt to get some wins back under my belt. The lights have been turned out on me and that is a very unfortunate way to stay 2019, however: “It is always darkest before the sun shines” If handled correctly then times like this can provide the lessons / energy / focus / humility that is needed to take my game to the next level! Open Positions Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots * STOP LOSS TRIGGERED on 1/25/19 Enter: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.34 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC PnL: -0.018191 BTC ROI: -3.16% Watchtower XAU Alert: Close > $1,300 + weekly close > bear TL I had drawn from ATH. Notes: I have re adjusted the bear TL to as high as it can go. Weekly close above $1,305 is a buy signal. Close > $1,355 would be signal to add. Weekly cloud at $1,262 looks like a great entry. XAG Alerts: Descending Triangle Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s USDTRY Patterns: Looks like Bulkowski Big W is forming Confirmation: Watching for weekly close > $5.45 & confirmation of inverted hammer at $5.75 S&P 500 Alerts: Notes: L MA on weekly has rolled over and is expected to act as strong resistance at $2,700. Also watch bear TL that connects 10/1 to 12/3. Apple Notes: Expecting bounce from 200 W MA and target is $191. Earnings expected 1/29. Daily Cloud is very bearish. Watching for daily GC + L MA roll up. BTC Notes: Watching for Stochastics on daily, 3D and weekly to be in confluence. Until then I am expected further chop. Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Weekly close below symmetrical triangle triggered short entry. Passing due to how rapidly the daily parabolic SAR’s are accelerating downward, which is a strong indicator to me that it is oversold / ready for a bounce. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. 3d on r7 and daily on r9 while stochastics are returning to oversold territory. Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA & 3D TDST)
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Sawcruhteez
3
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 24 (0.39 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I am currently in Las Vegas for the Unconfiscatable Conference and I didn’t have intentions of making another update until returning home. However the stop loss on my USD:TRY long was triggered and because of that I felt the need to make another post. I had high hopes for that trade. I was expecting it claw out of it’s unrealized loss and go onto makeup for a large portion of the deficit that I got myself into with the string of losses that started this challenge. That position easily could have netted me 1+ BTC over the coming weeks / months. Instead it broke down $5.25, triggered my stop and capitalized on a loss of 0.3425 BTC. That puts me into a deep hole and it will make it very difficult to complete this challenge on time. Now the challenge will be to get back to breakeven in the next three months. If I can do that then I believe it is still possible to complete the original goal of +1,000% in less than 6 months. A big part of the motivation for starting this challenge is to inspire others who have gotten completely rekt throughout this bear market and what better way to do that then to get completely rekt myself?! If it wasn’t for this challenge I would likely take a few weeks off and deposit another ~ 1.5 BTC. Instead I am going to roll up my sleeves, decrease my risk and get back to work. Open Positions Short: XAUUSD * STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots Price: $1,284.73 Stop: $1,297.26 Projected Risk: 0.97% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.05 lots Margin: 0.016 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.004 BTC Long: USDCAD *1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Price: $1.33032 Stop: $1.3149 Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.21 lots Margin: 0.057 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC Closed Positions Long: USDTRY Enter: $5.55804 Exposure: $16,000 Leverage: 100:1 PnL: -0.3425 BTC ROI: -7.81% Watchtower . BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
by Sawcruhteez
4
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 17 (1.203 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today I was stopped out of my XRP long and that is my 8th losing trade in a row since beginning this challenge. Combine that with 0 wins and I find myself in a large hole. Judging by the number of likes and views that this has been getting people are noticing and losing interest very quickly. That is okay though because this right here is what separates the doers from the tryers: When the going gets tough, the tough get going If you understand standard deviation then you know that losing streaks are to be expected, but at what point do you point the finger at yourself instead of at the variance? I try to focus on the process instead of the results, however when the results are this poor I am forced to take a step back to see if there was anything under my control that I could have done differently. There are a number of things that I will do differently moving forward but the biggest factor that jumps out at me is not zooming out enough. I was trading Consensio on the daily and completing disregarding the weekly and monthly charts. If I would have started with a longer term view then I would have been able to avoid a number of the losing positions that I entered. Following a string of losses most are inclined to increase leverage / relative risk and that is the absolute last thing that should be done. There will be a strong impulse to try to win back what was just lost but that needs to be avoided at all cost. Therefore I really like taking my risk down a notch until I get on the right side of the market for a few trades. That helps me to refocus, which is absolutely vital. Instead of focusing on winning my money back I am focused on making good trades. When starting this challenge I was targeting 0.1 BTC - 0.15 BTC risk per position. Now that my bankroll for this challenge has been almost sliced in half, I am going to target 0.025 BTC - 0.05 BTC risk per position. This helps me to feel confident that I am controlling my emotions. If I continue my losing streak then I will continue to scale down my risk. I will only look to ramp it back up once I capitalize on of few wins and start to get some mojo back. To add insult to injury I have been very interested in shorting NFLX leading up to this earnings report. It is phase 7 in a hyperwave and all the new was expected it to beat earnings by 30%+. Therefore buy the hype, sell the news. If they miss slightly then that would be an even better selling opportunity. However, I wasn't diligent enough in my preparation. The exchange I use doesn't offer NFLX so I tried to do a last minute transfer to a different BTC exchange that does. The transaction didn't confirm until after markets closed and now I may have missed my entry (markets falling in afterhours trading). When it rains it pours and that is why it is important to own a quality umbrella. Open Positions Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% *1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656. Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Has been super frustrating watching this position move against me. Open Orders Short XAU:USD *1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation. Long USD:CAD *1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%) Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach. Closed Positions LONG XRPH19 *1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market. *1/17/19 STOPPED OUT: On a wick that only occured on 2 out of 6 major exchanges. Very frustrating. Enter: 0.00009135 Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC) Leverage: 15X Realized PnL: -0.1327 BTC ROI: -7.16% / -107% Watchtower NFLX Notes: "Netflix beats on subscriber growth but misses slightly on revenue" gives me a $200 target based on VRVP and the 200 W MA BTC Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish. XRPBTC Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist. ETHUSD: Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA) LTCUSD: Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Sawcruhteez
GBP/AUD LIQUIDITY FILL -ARE WE READY TO SEE 1.8000?It appears that once again the price was dumped into the psychological level: 1.7650 (in the midst of large fundamental talks) before price rallied 250 PIPS to the upside & potentially wiping out many traders short profits on the day. What happened here? Why is this a common theme in the foreign exchange markets? Why is it that so many people lose? Does this style of playing on the emotions and psychology of the masses in effect make the larger institutions money? or is it all a FAD? - Who knows? Maybe we need to open our eyes a little more. Anyway, the price action is as clear as can be and for as long as the pair trades above 1.7750 (weekly SUPP) then I expect buyers to step in, price to rise and some temporary faith to be restored in the hearts of those giving up the most energy to let their 'voices be heard' throughout the Brexit talks, votes and whatever other manipulation of the masses is occurring in the here and now. I always remain chart focused with a 10% outlook over fundamentals. After today I would be very surprised if GBP/AUD sinks into new weekly lows! We have a barrier at 1.7875 that we need to take out, a minor intraday dip may well form to around 1.7800-1.7820 then price may start to accelerate as many stops will be lurking just above 1.7925.
Long
by QW-Trading
GBP/NZD 250 PIPS WILL BE MADE - HIGH PROBABILITY / LOW RISK It appears that once again the price was dumped into the psychological level: 1.8650 (in the midst of large fundamental talks) before price rallied 250 PIPS to the upside & potentially wiping out many traders short profits on the day. The price action is as clear as can be and for as long as the pair trades above 1.9208 (weekly SUPP) then I expect buyers to step in, price to rise and some temporary faith to be restored in the hearts of those giving up the most energy to let their 'voices be heard' throughout the Brexit talks, votes and whatever other manipulation of the masses is occurring in the here and now. I always remain chart focused with a 10% outlook over fundamentals. After today I would be very surprised if GBP/NZD sinks into new weekly lows! Many stops will be lurking just above 1.92408.
Long
by QW-Trading
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 9 (1.5167 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Last night was pool league and we got our asses whooped! Worst ever in my 5 years on the team. Life has taught me that when it rains, expect it to pour. Trading isn't going well? Well then how about a flat tire and an ass whooping in pool?! I think that yesterday rustled something deep down in my soul because I woke up less than six hours after going to sleep, around six in the am. I had a lot to do so I embraced the early wake up. Went out to a nice breakfast, got the nail in my tire fixed, and then went to the gym. Too low on energy to exercise after getting little sleep and drinking too much, so I went straight to the steam room. Then I took a short nap, hit the charts for a couple hours, went out to my favorite restaurant for dinner and then got a 60 minute massage. The hot springs are closed on Wednesday’s so that was a great replacement to my daily hot springs meditation session. Broke = Always trying too hard and never doing Woke = Never trying too hard and always doing If you never seem to have the time to attend to your mind / body / soul then that is your fault; it is not due to outside circumstances. Taking care of your well being should be a priority and there is always enough time for your priorities. My results so far for this challenge should end up highlighting a very, very important part of my approach: Lose small so that you can win big. Each ~0.1 BTC loss represents an opportunity to win 1 BTC+. 5 - 10 losses can be remedied with 1 solid win. As long as I continue to manage risk properly and learn from my mistakes then I know that the profits will eventually take care of themselves. My last challenge saw me lose more than 50% of my original starting roll before going on to return +1,000% in less than six months. I have decided that losing less than that to start this challenge would be an objective improvement and validate the progress that I believe I’ve made over the past ~6 months. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.06 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. *1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.2439 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Closed Positions Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position *1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering. *1/9/19 STOPPED OUT Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.96 lots ($96,000) Realized PnL: -0.1546 BTC ROI: -0.61% Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position *1/9/19 STOPPED OUT Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Realized PnL: -0.1098 BTC ROI: -1.74% Open Orders *1/9/19 AMENDED: Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Tightened stop due to below yesterday’s close and that allowed me to increase the potential exposure and still risk the same. *1/9/19 CANCELLED Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20 because Consensio is starting to turn bearish. Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance. Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528. Reason for entry is Bollinger Band super squeeze on weekly and preference for longs due to r:r + coming of a major area of support + Consensio turning bullish on daily with a Golden Cross. Watchtower XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1 BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Very interested to see how the market reacts to the Constantinople Hard Fork. I think it will be bearish so I am very hesitant about this signal. ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. EURUSD: Consensio turned fully bullish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bear trend. USDHUF: Consensio turned fully bearish but price is approaching a retest of the 200 MA which is in a strong bull trend. USDJPY: Attempting to reverse bullish 200 MA with incoming death cross. Weekly is also on the verge of a reversal which indicates that we could be of the precipice of a big trend. Will be looking for large position once symmetrical triangle breaks down with weekly close. USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.
KRAKEN:XRPUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 7 (1.737 BTC) Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I have spent most of my afternoon reviewing my biggest trades from the last couple months to analyze my mistakes and looks for areas to improve. This is something that I am very good about doing when experiencing sub par results and something that I need to be more consistent about when I am running hot. When I get myself into a number of trades that quickly move against me then it that can cause feeling of stress / anxiety. It can be easy to second guess your decision making process and if a losing streak occurs for long enough it can cause you to question your entire trading approach. The way that I like to combat those feelings is through carefully analyzing trades and seeing if there are common mistakes that I continue to repeat. To do this one must focus exclusively on the process and disregard the results. Being results oriented does not help when reviewing past trades. I don’t care if it ended up making money or losing, I want to focus on my decision making process and risk management to determine if a trade is worthy of taking on again. After going through the process I will usually find something that is a clear mistake that will have significant impact on my results moving forward if I am able to make the necessary adjustments. That will generally make me feel very excited / motivated. Losing money on one or two trades is more than okay if it teaches me lessons that will improve my results over the next 100+ trades. After going through the process today I must say that I am feeling very excited about the lessons that presented themselves. I have two new Sticky Notes taped to my desk that should make a big difference moving forward. “Start with weekly chart. Use primarily stop orders. Monitor futures curve + spread.” Have been getting whipsawed more than I would like. I believe I can minimize that by always starting with the weekly chart. Some of the worst whipsaws occured when the weekly chart was clearly indicating to stay away / wait for further confirmation. A number of my losses / unrealized losses could have been avoided by using stop orders to enter. I have strongly preferred to use stop orders in the past but that is not what Consensio calls for. Therefore I was entering all positions will market orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. Now I am going to try and marry the two approaches, entering with primarily stop orders within 30 minutes of the daily close. This helps to ensure that market is moving in my favor before I actually get entered. This can also help avoid whipsaw by keeping me out of sideways markets. Ugly Old Goat published another great article today. In it he discusses backwardation and how he uses an increasing spread as a signal to increase exposure. I am going to start paying more attention to contango vs backwardation by noting the percentage or dollar amount that separates each contract. Am closely monitoring this spread right now. If BTC fails to support > $3,900 and the futures curve re enters Contango then I will be exiting all longs and looking to enter short. If BTC fails to support > $3,900, the Backwardation remains and the spread increases then I will be considering adding to my long. If spread remains roughly the same then I will maintain the same exposure. Adding would only be allowable because Consensio is signaling full entry and I only have a small position with a breakeven stop. medium.com “Pre Entry Checklist: Market, Order Type, Exposure, Leverage” I made way too many errors entering orders before doing something about it. Now I have a pre entry checklist that I go through to ensure that I am entering the right amount, with the right order in the right market. I am sure that this won’t alleviate 100% of the mistakes but I do believe it should have a very significant impact. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.064 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000) Margin: 0.1657 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.1668 BTC Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC Notes: I would really like to hold this position through the 200 MA due to the bullish trend, however I can’t afford to assume that much risk. Seeing an SOW from the lower high on 1/2 and am worried that support is on the verge of breaking down. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.081 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475. Open Orders Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTUSD @ $4,178. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump. Watchtower BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I would prefer to wait for close > cloud so that I can judge my risk properly. XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
2
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 6 (1.737 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge It's been another long day today. I'm not drinking tonight either and at this moment I would really enjoy a cold one. This certainly isn't how I wanted to start this challenge but it's way too early to get worried. The big positions I have are short SPX500 and long USDTRY. Those look like they are in bad shape but I still have big hopes for a turn around in the next week. If one of those positions goes in my favor then it should make up for all the losses that I've taken so far. I think this week is very important for anyone who is trying something new this year. I don't think most people who make New Year's resolutions make it past the first week or two and that is usually because it doesn't feel like the results are matching the effort. Good thing I know that anyone who has made it this far in BTC has far more resilience than that. Through experience we know that by remaining resolute, consistent and disciplined we will achieve our goals. Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 ADJUSTED STOP: Stop moved to breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0266 BTC Realised PnL: +0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.176 BTC Notes: P < S MA is a signal from Consensio to scale out 5%. However this is a Hyperwave and that supersedes Consensio in regards to exiting. Hyperwave waits for a weekly close below the phase line and exits fully. Consensio is used for entering Hyperwaves because Hyperwave doesn’t have objective entry guidelines (as far as I know). Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.05578 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.63 lots ($63,000) Margin: 0.1657 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0983 BTC Realized PnL: -0.031745 BTC Notes: Intended to add 0.08 lots on 1/4/19 and instead added 0.8 lots. Big mistake that could end up costing me huge. Have set market stop loss at $279.33 to ensure that it doesn’t get away from me too much. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’sl (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.153 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Botched this trade due to miscalculating the projected risk (see Worst Dressed List below). Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.0355 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Adjusted projected risk and set a market stop loss at 1.15010. If that gets triggered then I will lose approximately 0.09 BTC. That is about twice as much as I want to risk based on the Consensio guidelines and that is because I did not do a good job of projecting risk yesterday. This position is an early front runner for January’s Worst Dressed List. Closed Positions Long: XRPM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 CLOSE OUT: P < S MA < flat L MA < bearish M MA Enter: 0.00009702 Exit: 0.00009177 & 0.00009228 Exposure: 5,385 Ripple (0.522 BTC) Realized PnL: -0.0302 BTC Notes: Even though Consensio signaled an entry I should have waiting for breakout of ascending triangle / c&h and should have been ready with a stop entry. However since risk was properly managed and I stuck to the guidelines I feel good about this trade. Watchtower ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. ETHBTC: Weekly Descending triangle that found support from prior ATH’s. Expecting huge volatility once it breaks. Passing on entries until a daily candle closes above or below. XAUUSD: Price back above trendline and appears to be turning it back into support. However it is also getting dangerously close to breaking down the parabolic advance. It it does then an 80% decline would be expected which would indicate a return to $1,200. The RSI is pulling back from overbought territory. Watch for a bear div. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. Best and Worst Dressed Trades from 1/1/19 through 1/6/19 Worst Dressed SPX500 Short The trade that I am least pleased about is my S&P 500 short. The primary reason for my dismay is the expected risk that I used. I used horizontal resistance at $2,520 to determine my expected risk and thus my leverage and exposure. I knew for sure that I would want to hold onto this position through $2,600 due to the neckline from the h&s as well as the very bearish 33 MA. I should tend to be even more conservative then that and would like if I used $2,650 to calculate my expected risk. The reason I didn’t use the correct number to calculate my risk was primarily. The tighter the expected risk I go with the more leverage and exposure it allows me. I am very confident that the S&P has entered a bear market and I am expected a big move to the downside over the next few months. Therefore I am inclined to max out my exposure on this trade. I am used to trading with strict stop losses and that is the biggest difference for me with Consensio. There will definitely be a learning curve. That miscalculation has put me in a very bad spot. The unrealized profit on this trade is currently -0.153 BTC and I will not be getting any more signals from Conensio to exit as long as we are below the bearish L MA. If the price does rally to $2,650 before I am able to fully scale out then I would be looking at a ~0.5 BTC loss on this trade. Absolutely unacceptable to risk ~25% of my Challenge bankroll on one position. It should be nearer a fifth or a tenth of that at risk. There should be a lot of resistance at $2,600 and I will be watching closely for that to hold. If it does then this could quickly turn into a very profitable position and alleviate a lot of the anxiety that it is causing me. USDHUF Long This was more of an honest mistake that I will not beat myself too much over. I go through dozens of calculations per day to determine how to manage my positions / cash. A mistake is bound to happen. Unfortunately this mistake is a scary one, exposing $80,000 instead of $8,000 that should have been. If the Hungarian Forint moved against me on Friday (like most of the USD longs did) then it would have put me into a world of hurt and would have cost me more than 10% of my bankroll. Luckily that didn’t happen and I am able to start scaling out, due to Consensio, today. Since this was not done out of greed I am not as worried about it. Nevertheless I will do my best to be more careful next time. Best Dressed ZAR (didn’t overexpose), BTC (was patient, stuck with the game plan, didn’t overexpose) USDZAR Long This is a trade that has had me drooling over the past few weeks. If US equities enter bear market then the USD should rally. I am bearish the stock market and bullish the USD. When bullish the USD I like to long it against the weakest currencies that I can find, TRY, ZAR, MXN, instead of the more common EUR, JPY GBP pairs. The South African Rand formed a very nice cup and handle throughout 2018 and finally brokethrough the bear trendline on August. It then proceeded to consolidate in a bull flag type of pattern above the trendline and cup and handle. Furthermore the 200 MA is in a very bullish posture. With all of those factors combined I was / am about as bullish as can be on USDZAR. The price recently spent a few weeks above the flag pattern and it would have been very easy for me to get greedy and overexpose myself like I did with the SPX500 short. Eventhough this trade has moved against me significantly that is okay because my risk is properly managed. It isn’t a great feeling when the first up on my best dressed list is a big loser but that is okay because I am sticking to the process and learning from my mistakes. BTC Long If I am not mistaken this is my only position that is currently in the green and therefore I felt obliged to include it on this list. There were a number of reasons why I prefered to look for shorts on BTC (see Daily Update from last few days). Mainly due to the built up resistance from $4,000 - $4,200, the thick Ichimoku Cloud, as well as most people seeing the i h&s / c&h and my lack of belief in patterns that most recognize. Nevertheless I stuck to Consensio and entered the long due to the L MA turning slightly bullish, the golden cross, the bullish cross with the S & M MA. This is a great example of why it is extremely important to stick to a system and not let personal feelings / emotions get in the way. When positions move against you it is important not to take it personally and when they go in your favor it is important to control feelings of euphoria / ego. Knowing that the system you are trading is what got you in those positions can make all of the difference in the world.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
Comprehensive Trading ProcessDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
5
WALL STREET: The future is the past - possiblyIn this screencast I look back to 2008 to get an idea of what happened in the last crash. As I'm in a lot of positive equity, I don't want to become complacent in my trend following. So - I've looked back to see the sort of bouncing around of price I could expect (if the current picture unfolds similarly). To be clear, I am not saying that what happened in 2008 will happen again. I am simply looking at patterns on daily time frame, to avoid any unconscious expectation that price will just go down in a simple stepwise manner. Why might I come to an 'unconscious expectation'? Because I know not the psychology that affects me and loads of other people. I know that lots of equity gains can have an almost hypnotic effect. I've been there done that, been burnt, and worn the T-shirt etc. So - this time around, I ain't letting 'no' market hypnotize me!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Captain_Walker
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden. If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
FX:GER30
by UnknownUnicorn569872
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NOW / VIDEO / EDUCATIONALHey TradingView In this video I will be going over a swing trade from this week and breaking down how this trade could impact a trader's psychology both positively and negatively. I also cover some easy to implement strategies that will make it much easier for you to let your winners run. It really bothers me how little attention seems to be devoted to trading psychology. This is by far the hardest thing for most traders to grasp and master. Please take a look at this video and let me know if it is able to help you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ImreSG
2
Bitcoin is bouncing, is this the bottom? Is this the same question you were asking yourself (and others) when the price of Bitcoin was 6000? And when the whole space said it was, what did that do for you? What would the claim that this is the bottom do for you now? Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that? You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you. So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom. Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself. The daily chart shows a nice break of the IBR, which I suspect will result in more upside. Mondays candle got me scared of more downside, but yesterdays hammer and todays strength are good to see. The market was extremely overextended and in need of some reset, and its finally here. To trade this I’m waiting for a setup on the 4HR chart to materialise before entering anything to the long side. The 4HR chart is interesting. The bull divergence gives this bounce some nice momentum to the upside and its crossed the trend cloud and moving into the resistance cloud (kumo). What I’d like to see is price bouncing finding resistance at the kumo and coming back to the trend cloud for support. If that happens the indicator will most likely signal a long setup, and possibly a long entry signal at the trend cloud. Unfortunately, the market is rare so accommodating so I’ll have to watch and see how price reacts. If I don’t see a setup a signal, there’s no trade. FOMO is a terrible thing, and the key to getting rekt.. If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :) If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up. Stay calm, and happy trading! More information on the indicator can be found below:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
5
Psychological trading hack #0002 (educational)In this screencast I share some of my own personal journey which I suspect may resound with many a struggling trader out there. This post is in keeping with the house rules on text-based analyses, and psychological self-analysis is the biggest most important aspect of trading. It is clearly in the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis' I had been thinking for many days where to start with this journey. This morning I hit on it. It is about me! Not about charts and methods. So that's where I start. I share this for the benefit of all traders and especially new traders. I'm not saying I am right about everybody. I only know about my own journey and I think there may be some 'psychological hacks' in all this, to curtailing much suffering among other traders. Everybody knows that discipline in trading is required, and that is primarily a psychological issue. Proven methodologies for profitability just do not work for a majority of people. So the big factor is 'the people' and what leads them to make bad decisions in trading. I've been tackling it. Join me on the journey. This could be (though not necessarily) the most important journey of all.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Bitcoin referenced with historical data.(A lost cause)people dont care for the technology really./ - "fact" A wild goose chase. Nothing more. This almost most accurate representation of previous Historical Pump&Dump take the levels with a salt of grain. nobody really knows shit.But we cant even tell whats going to happen in this moment in time how the fuk are we supposed to predict the future. TA only works cause people see this happened last thus this will happen this time.(this is also just a 50% probability.) At this moment in time sitting in my room I dont even know when Im gonna sleep its already 2:14 AM. I just wanna end with this note from "The office": "bears beets battlestar galactica.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by blankz13
BTC / USD Forecast - Bottom between 2018/11/25 - 2019/01/13BTC is in its final stages of the 12 months decline. We expect a bottom between the time frame around November 25th and January 13th 2019. Usually the Fibonacci fan is left earlier and prices dont follow until the end of the time target (in this case January 13, 2019). We expect a higher low around January 13, 2019. After January 13, prices have according to fibonacci, social mood and mass psychology the best setup for higher prices. The target to the upside is already set for 2019. Please be aware that time targets are more important than price targets in our forecasts. Nevertheless, we expect the price target around 4.200 at the moment. Feel free to join our Channels with weekly free forecasts: Telegram: t.me Twitter: twitter.com Our Webpage: cryptwaves.com Our latest and free Telegram XLM forecast: cryptwaves.com Happy surfing!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by cryptwaves
2