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Projection

Oil Prices Set to Soar: Will $100 per Barrel be the New Normal?According to the Elliott wave principle, the XTIUSD 4-hour chart appears to have completed a primary degree impulsive wave 1 followed by corrective wave 2. The current price action suggests that wave 3 of an ascending impulse is now underway. It is anticipated that XTIUSD will face resistance around the 73.88-72.84 range, and as a result, is projected to climb higher over the upcoming period in 5 internal impulses, potentially reaching above $95/barrel. Furthermore, a bullish batman harmonic pattern on the M15 further confirms this analysis. It is worth noting that if this forecast is accurate, it may trigger a rise in the dollar index as the analysis unfolds. My medium term target will be $90/barrel , while my ultimate target will be $100/barrel of oil.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Samuel124
Crude Oil: Fibonacci Retracements, Support and Resistance LevelsI've had the opportunity to closely observe the crude oil market's impressive run after its historic dip into negative territory in 2020. To better understand the market's behavior, I've outlined a Fibonacci pull from the low in November 2020 to the high in March 2022. In this idea, I'll discuss the importance of support and resistance levels, as well as Fibonacci retracements, in the context of trading crude oil. Before diving into the technical analysis, let's first touch on the educational aspect of support and resistance levels. Support levels are price points at which an asset's price is more likely to stop falling and start rising, while resistance levels are the opposite - price points at which an asset's price is more likely to stop rising and start falling. These levels can help traders identify potential entry and exit points for trades. Similarly, Fibonacci retracements are an analytical tool derived from the famous Fibonacci sequence. They are used to identify potential support and resistance levels by measuring the percentage retracement of an asset's price between a low and a high. The most common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% (the most important level). In my crude oil analysis, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level sits at $66.29 on a log scale. We saw the price tap and test this level for a few days before witnessing a significant gap to the upside. What's particularly intriguing isn't the support we're finding at the 50% retracement level, but rather the support and resistance levels I've outlined at $61.35, $85.88, and $93.33. Should the price fall below the 50% retracement level, we have the downside support at $61.35. On the other hand, if the price continues moving upwards, we can expect resistance at $85.88 and $93.33. The $93 level is near the 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicating that we may encounter significant resistance at this point. A few days ago, we observed a sizable gap at around $80 after production numbers were released. Generally, production cuts lead to a higher cost for assets like crude oil, as supply shrinks while demand remains steady. If oil prices surpass the resistance level of $93-$94, there's a high likelihood we could see oil reaching $180 in the coming years – approximately two years out. Although I would assign a 20% probability to this scenario, it's essential to note that support and resistance levels have proven to be crucial in the history of oil trading. Crude oil is unlike other assets and has a reputation for trapping the herd. So, where do you stand in the herd today? Understanding and effectively utilizing Fibonacci retracements, support, and resistance levels can be the key to navigating the crude oil market and making informed decisions in your trading journey.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by bitdoctor
This Is How GBPUSD Will Likely Move In Coming Months | Be Ready!I have published this idea to give you a general view of how to look at GBPUSD in the meantime .. Please do consider that this is an estimation of how price might move, given the current conditions and market outlook and that may change and it's not stable.. A confirmation must occur before determining every leg of the moves shown on chart, and confirmations of lower timeframes is obligatory.. This is the general view of what we might expect price to do.. make sure to hit a FOLLOW to get updates and confirmations right away💥 What's your view on this pair and DXY in general?
Long
by MST_Trader
🔥TYPES OF FIBONACCI TOOLS🔥 There are several types of Fibonacci tools that are commonly used in technical analysis, including: 📊FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT Fibonacci retracement levels—stemming from the Fibonacci sequence—are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur.Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While not officially a Fibonacci ratio, 50% is also used.The indicator is useful because it can be drawn between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low. The indicator will then create the levels between those two points. 📊FIBONACCI EXTENCION Fibonacci extensions don't have a formula. When the indicator is applied to a chart, the trader chooses three points. The first point chosen is the start of a move, the second point is the end of a move and the third point is the end of the retracement against that move. The extensions then help project where the price could go next. Once the three points are chosen, the lines are drawn at percentages of that move.Extensions are drawn on a chart, marking price levels of possible importance. These levels are based on Fibonacci ratios (as percentages) and the size of the price move the indicator is being applied to. 📊FIBONACCI PROJECTION Fibonacci projections are mainly used to get the possible target levels of an ongoing uptrend or downtrend. It is drawn by joining three points unlike Fibonacci Retracement which has just two points- by joining the lowest and the highest points of a pre-defined.In order to draw the Fibonacci projections for an asset in an uptrend, we need 3 points: 👉Swing Low - that is the point from which the actual trend started. 👉Swing High - the point at which price started to retrace. 👉Low of the ongoing price correction. Fibonacci projections provide potential good levels to book profits. The important Fibonacci projections levels to watch out for are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8%. 📊FIBONACCI EXPANSION(SIMILAR TO PROJECTION) Essentially, Fibonacci expansions allow us to project how far a potential price move is likely to travel. This price move is typically considered an impulsive price move, in the context of Elliott wave. That is to say that it will typically follow a corrective phase and thus form a new trend leg in the direction of the larger trend.In that way it is very different compared to Fibonacci retracements. Unlike Fibonacci retracements which measure an internal retracement against a larger trend leg, a Fibonacci expansion measures an external price leg. CONCLUSION It's important to note that the use of Fibonacci tools in trading is just one aspect of technical analysis and should not be used in isolation. I myself use Fibonacci regularly but I also combine them with technical key levels and with the price action patterns on top of that. I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
Education
by ProSignalsFx
15
Bitcoin Volatility Is Building #2 (Price Projection)Thgis is an Update to the Original Idea. The targets remain the same i just had a short term bearish flip last week but now that we've reached the short term bearish target i think we will continue onto the Bullish Path of the main idea. We have a major square-up near 20k that's yet to be filled and we have a 3 line strike on the 4HR at the VAL Bearish Target. If all goes to plan we should fill the square very soon and afterwards we could go all the way back down, or we could form a right shoulder and continue to make new highs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RizeSenpai
2
Ethereum Marketcap Looks Ready For A 100 Billion Dollar DeclineAlongside some Bullish outlooks for some of ETH's competing coins like XRP and LTC and TRX I also do believe that the ETH value of these coins will significantly rise in the coming months the cause of this rise in these coin's ETH pairs would imply that either: The USD Value of those coins go up significantly, ETH comes down significantly, or a combination of the 2. I do believe that it's more than likely going to be a conbination of the two but that the biggest factor would be the fact that ETH will come down significantly. What to look out for here is a Break of the trendline,if it breaks through the trendline it will also be bearishly breaking down from a Bearish Consolidation Structre and will be below the 200 Week Moving Average which would most likely result in atleast an over 100 Billion Dollar decline all the way down to the next major support of $12.90B I have been tracking multiple macro instances of the chart hinting towards ETH collapse and they can be viewed in the related ideas tab below.
CRYPTOCAP:ETHShort
by RizeSenpai
3
EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY #EURUSD - Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR is slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. As of today, due to MARKET RISK being ON, all MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going up a bit. If more rate hikes happen, it will definitely affect the US dollar in a big way to strengthen it. - Definitely according to the MARKET STRUCTURE EURUSD can go up to the high RESISTANCE LEVEL. At the moment, there is a slightly UP SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for EUR. According to that, EURUSD can go up to 1.0080 LEVEL. And after that, if the MAIN CHANNEL is BREAKED, the EURUSD PRICE can go down to the 0.9541 LEVEL, if the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP. So keep an eye on it.
by benny_marshall
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START** At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle. In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018. My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook. **TRUNCATION** Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave. The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves. **WHERE ARE WE NOW** Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be. **LIKELY PRICE PATH** What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves. **CONCLUSION** The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields. Cheers,
TVC:US10YLong
by Elliot618