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Probability

Fibs and the RSIHello all and welcome once more. While BTC is doing it's thing I want to take some time out to draw your attention to something that you may or may not be aware of... RSI (Relative Strength Index). Now I'm sure most of you know how it works and what it means so i won't waste your precious time giving a run down on that. But did you know the RSI also respects Fib retracements? That's right! Why is this interesting? Because when determining the likely-hood of a movement in a particular direction, a simple trend line or channel won't always give us enough information. Sometimes it can lead us down the wrong path, while we scratch our heads yelling "WHY!!!". By plotting a fib or two over the RSI we can see levels of support or resistance we may not have noticed before, determine the strength a resistance or support has, catch any divergence early as it's easier to see and make better informed decisions overall. I hope you go out and give it a try, it is definitely helpful when you know how to use it! Happy trading :)
Education
by Disaster_Chartist
Probability vs PossibilityThe battle that wages on every market, in every trade... Probability versus Possibility. Now I've seen SO MANY predictions and forecasts lately telling of breakouts, moons and lambos - It's disgusting. Why? Because while ANYTHING can happen (possibility), one must consider the chances of these events occurring (probability) . Now i don't mean to insult your intelligence by defining the words in such a basic means, I'm merely setting an argument. Let's consider Bitcoin for a moment, and where it is currently. IT IS STILL IN A DOWN-CHANNEL. It has NOT broken the resistance as of yet, and every time it's tried since it's fall in December, it has fallen further. Now the healthy channel of recovery is below us, it's baseline sitting in the 7.7K-8.2k zone. The green channel extending from this is the area in which Bitcoin feels comfortable. The most probable course of action is a fall, to either the 9-9.7k area before a reattempt at the resistance, or a straight skydive to the baseline. These two options are far more likely than bitcoin breaking out and seeing a new A-T-H. This is not just trade advice, this is life advice - Please consider the most likely course of actions before investing your hard earned money, before listening to all the hype, before letting yourself be led into disappointment. Now if I am wrong, if Bitcoin breaks the resistance and goes for a climb, you can jump aboard and sail the profitable seas at your leisure with slightly less profit than you could have. If i'm right however, you stand to lose up to 20-40% if you haven't taken the correct means of protection in a small and volatile time period. DON'T let emotion rule your decisions, this is a game of numbers and probability. Whatever you decide, i wish you the best in the coming days :)
by Disaster_Chartist
4
Opening QQQ Oct 20 Butterfly +147C -2 148C +151Cwww.tradingview.com Opened today when spot was ~144.70. QQQ in Oct 20th monthly expiration options long the 147 call short two 148 calls long the 151 call credit .36 Theta .81 Delta 10.81 max profit 136 loss 164. Anything lower than the break-even of about 145.50 will profit between 36 and 136. No risk to down side. This trade is looking for a positive drift in price but will profit (70% probability) as long as the price does not blow through 48.50 and stay there. Max profit occurs at the short strikes (148.00). Actual target 28 (price stays low or drops) to 34 (25% of max closed to minimize exposure). In either winning scenario the trade will be closed with more than a week to expiration. If price rises straight through it I will close the bull spread (+147 -148) in profit and roll the bear spread out in time with good probability of either profit or scratch down the line.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tom1trader
1
GBP/JPY Long opportunity GJ setting up for a good risk/reward long soon, maybe a little too late for it but let's see if we can catch the absolute bottom again with this one. RSI is improving while the price is dropping (bullish divergence) which indicated the bears are losing steam and the likelihood of a move up has increased. In addition, it appears as if at that price GJ will form a bullish harmonic pattern. Not really the best pair to trade at the moment (check NZD/USD, or gold) but the opportunity has presented itself. Enjoy & take care
Long
by faris.makki
2
Gold - easy 4HR and 1D setup - huge P/L potential. The confluence of trend-lines is making the unit quite volatile in this coming week. The '13 0.49% trendline - retested in July 2017 - is the major hurdle, breaking this trendline would allow the unit room to grow up and fight the major 1300 resistance. The world has its fair share of problems, Brexit and terrorism in UK, Trump battles to implement policies amidst scandals, Europe faces migration unrest, political weakening, and also depend on the Brexit negotiations. North Korea keeps crossing the lines. South Africa gold mining (7th largest producer) is also facing governmental interference. This allows us calm traders to rise above the competition and make money amidst global madness. These problems are long-term problems so I expect the unit to rise both medium and long term (2 weeks and 1 month). There is an option to short immediately, however I prefer to buy the unit long. Short-option. If the 1250 resistance breaks, short until the 22nd June when the current trend reverses to the monthly upward Elliot wave pattern. At the current rate this will be on the 22nd June around value 1230, stay tuned for updates. Long-option Wait until the trend reverse around 22nd June, $1240 level and has a good bullish candle. I will update the chart if I am confident to open my trade. Target: 1270 SL: 1230 after entering bull trend. P/L ratio: 5+ Hope we're all excited for this week!
TVC:GOLDLong
by Wolf123
2
$xlu continuation patterns across the board!-higher time frame showing healthy pullback in defined uptrend finding support at 53.3x area -mid time frame shows range bound action after a quick downtrend/ signs of accumulation are seen in range bound equilibrium -momentum is strengthening upward along with volume pressure -spring candle/pinbar found on mid time frame finding quick support at 53.3x area shows buyers conviction multiple retests of resistance area 53.6x area shows weakness and high probability of breaking out lower time frame supports previously mentioned idea with price action making higher lows and higher highs into resistance showing buyers conviction with rising rsi
AMEX:XLULong
by inco1
ADI breakout to the downside!!higher time frame is showing defined downtrend and exhibiting trend strength- using moving averages as dynamic resistance/ support -intermediate timeframe shows trend alignment to the downside and price pull back to short term moving average -looking for it trade to pivot low of 78.58 and breakout to the downside on intermediate timeframe -on the shorter time frame- it is also showing trend alignment and favors a higher probability favoring the trend to the downside -price is also pulling back to the .236 retracement level of 78.98..would look to initiate position in that area to the ride back down and setting a tight stop over 79.0x area -as price resumes downtrend on the intermediate timeframe- it should also translate to the lower time frame and breakdown past the pivot low of 78.58 and along with increased selling pressure towards the path of least resistance to 74.7x area (.618 extension level)
NASDAQ:ADIShort
by inco1