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2024-12-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral for now. Bullish targets are met with 20k and I will scalp long we have a clear setup but not chasing anything Too early for shorts, best to not mess up your year this late. comment : After many months of writing about the most outrageous target for the dax, we finally did it. What a time to be alive. Don’t look to be the first bear. Can go higher obviously but I won’t chase anything here. My bullish targets are met, I don’t care about any more upside other than small scalps. Will wait for bigger bears to come around and will watch closely when bulls begin to take bigger profits. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Got nothing more for you. Market’s tend to move from trend to trading range instead of trend in the other direction. So we could spend some more time up here. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Yeah… Also got nothing for you until bears can get a daily close below 19700 again. We most likely spend more time 19800 - 20100 before another impulse. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Neutral. We can go higher but I don’t expect much tbh. 19800 - 20100 is my current range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longs only. My weekly outlook was pitch perfect and good for 300+ points. Bar 27 to 39 were more than enough signal bars to go long. 40 was really give up bar by the bears and market just went straight up.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Clear breakout on the daily chart. ATH wants a retest and for now there is no reason why market would stop there. My upmost target is 22400ish but for now bulls want to hit the 3 upper trend lines and see which one produces most resistance. Bears come back into the picture with a daily close below 20800. current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested bull wedges on the daily chart. Will end in the next 3-8 weeks key levels: 21000 - 21500 bull case: Bulls have 3 obvious targets above now. First ath retest 21340, then 2 more upper bull trend lines from wedges. 22000 is possible over the next 4 weeks but we are in the last stage of the bull trend. Invalidation is a daily close below 21000. bear case: Bears gave up above 21000 and will probably try again above 20300 or higher. For now they don’t have any arguments before bulls begin to stall due to profit taking. It’s too late for bigger longs and too early to short. Be patient. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bullish for 21340 and then probably some more. Buying pullback is most likely the easiest way here. medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend. 22000 is a possibility but a bit far for now. Daily close above 20500 would bring it in play. First target for Q1 2025 is 19000. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anywhere. Textbook breakout and market never looked back.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
EURUSD Bullish ? Monthly FVG Reversal Setup to the UpsideBreaking down the EUR/USD setup: Sell-Side Liquidity Raided: Price has effectively taken out the sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels at 1.060 and 1.04482, creating the conditions for a reversal. Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price has tapped into the monthly FVG and, more importantly, closed above it, signaling a possible bullish reversal. Higher Timeframe Bias: The monthly FVG holds strong as a bullish PD array. With price rejecting this range, there’s potential for a move toward the weekly buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 1.09387. Obstacles to Watch: Price is approaching two high-probability bearish FVGs on the weekly timeframe. These zones could cause re tracements back into the higher timeframe monthly FVG range. Monitor these areas closely for signs of price respecting or disregarding these bearish zones. Projection: If price continues to disrespect the bearish FVGs and maintains bullish displacement, a continuation toward 1.09387 is likely. Keep in mind retracements into the FVG range as healthy pullbacks during the move higher. Conclusion: This setup highlights a high-probability reversal scenario based on ICT concepts. However, as always, patience and confirmation are key—watch how price reacts to the bearish FVGs along the way. Disclaimer: Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and trade responsibly.
Long
by INSIDER_INTEL
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bearish. Bears printed 4 consecutive bear bars and made new lows. Next target is 67. Only a daily close above 70 would do it for the bulls but even then the next bear trend line runs below 71. Market is once again forming nested triangles on the daily chart. Tough to trade. Quote from last week: comment: Was also bullish on this and bulls finally came around. Clear break of the bear trend line and next target is 72.6. Is this a very bullish structure? Hell no. I expect more sideways movement just in a bigger range 69 - 72/73 until the bear gap is closed. If bulls somehow manage to close it next week, we can expect 75+ next. Continuation of the current range is much more likely though and that is why you should not over analyze trading ranges. Market is in balance in the midpoint, so mark it and fade the extremes. comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 67 - 72.6 bull case: Horrible week for the bulls with a clear sell signal going into next week. They have to defend 67 or we will likely go down to 66 or 65.74 again. Bulls who bought 67 have made money since September and we have no reason to expect it to be different this time. Daily close above 69 brings 70 and 70.5 in play. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: I do think Monday’s bar was a big bear surprise and market went mostly sideways afterwards. They also had a really good reversal on Friday which is a sell signal going into next week. They want to test the November low 66.27 and break below the very shallow bull trend line to test 65.73 or the lower bull trend line starting December 2023 at around 64. Invalidation is above 71.6. outlook last week: short term: Bullish that we reach 72 but upside is probably limited after that. Pullbacks are likely to be bought if not too strong and if we stay above 68. → Last Sunday we traded 71.24 and now we are at 68. Outlook was just plain wrong and that was already clear on Monday at US open. Market basically went nowhere after that. short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again. Quote from last week: comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. → Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one. short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again. comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs . current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500) bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye. Invalidation is above 6070. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook. short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Max bullish. Clear break above and dax printed 19600 again. New ath next week is likely just a matter of when. Targets above are 20000, That’s it. For bears it’s anything below 19130 but that is far away and very low probability. If November closes above 19600, I think 20k is almost a given. After that I will not care about bullish targets any more until we corrected at least 30%. Does not mean I won’t continue scalping it both ways. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025. comment : Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. current market cycle: trading range but if we make higher highs, we are obviously in a continuation of the bull trend. key levels: 19100 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want 20000. Clear as day, as is the breakout. My chart is clear and my invalidation levels are too. Invalidation is a daily close below 19100. bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. Did not change that sentence since past Sunday. Bears will dominate 2025 but now is not the time to be early as a bear. Invalidation is above 20100. outlook last week: short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800. → Last Sunday we traded 19322 and now we are at 19626. 300 points on the week, hope you made some. short term : Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted bull trend lines and my 5-wave series is still valid.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Well, market has still to print 100k. It would be really funny if market could not get it because everyone and their dead dog is expecting it. So here are my thoughts… I do think it’s obvious we print 100k and maybe a bit above but my expectation is a complete crumble afterwards and I would not be surprised if we see 70k in January or February. You won’t get any bullish bias or outlooks on this from me for some time. It is too early to short this, yes. Do. Not. Be. The. First. And don’t try to pick tops. Ever. Did not change the Bitcoin outlook since Market has not changed. Quote from last week: comment: Market has yet to print the 100k. I think it’s highly likely that we print it and a bit above but after that it’s down to hell for all I care. No more bullish targets from me. I will be waiting for this to go do hard and will enjoy permabulls going apeshit writing about “another amazing long opportunity” and “it’s just a pullback” while this will half over the next 6-12 months. comment : No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k. current market cycle: Bull trend - blow off top to 100k - after that it’s likely over key levels: 90000 - 100000 bull case: Bulls only objective is to keep this market above 90k and print 100k. That’s it. Still. I would not even be sure about a retest of it after a pullback. Nothing on that case changed since past Sunday, so I kept it. Technically a measured move could go all the way up to 111k but let’s see what we do when we print 100k and go from there. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Still nothing. Don’t even try to come up with something until bears get a daily close below 90k. Invalidation is above 110000. outlook last week: short term: I think we can do 100k but Would you really want to risk about 6-10k points for making 3k ? R:R right now is not good anymore. Around 93k-94k and the bull trend line it’s ok again. → Last Sunday we traded around 97075 and now we are at 97327. Market went nowhere inside given range. Outlook was ok. short term: Neutral between 90-100k medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted current bull channel, which is also an expanding triangle and a wedge. All patterns are valid for now.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
Link, breaking. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! #Link another dino bag. Can move in the background whilst I focus on others. Coming into the highly contested $20 area. So far, it's been breaking and flipping levels. $20 would be a yuge flip! Need a big push to suggest this is a wave 3, $100 link if it plays or it could just be a ZZ up, at 2 degrees...break $20 and $40 first. Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
1
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs. comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play) bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad. Invalidation is below 6010. bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there? Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Bullish. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Max bullishness. Bulls bought it all today. We barely made higher highs and are still under 19500 but every small dip was relentlessly bought. Bulls also defended the Globex gap and that fact + that we closed right at the highs is the strongest buy signal going into tomorrow there is. I expect a quick move abov 19500, followed by some sideways movement before we go for 19600 and I don’t think it can prevent a new ath either tomorrow or next week. I only get bearish below 19350. comment : Bulls set up a big breakout for the coming days. Every dip was bought and we closed at the highs. Easy validation levels now. 19519 was high of the week and we will likely hit it tomorrow for some sideways movement afterwards. Very bullish for 19600 after that. If we drop below 19380 again, means the bull trend line broke and we have many support prices between that and 19300. Do or die for the bulls here. Fail and down to 19300 or lower. Break above and likely 19600 and new ath. current market cycle : trading range key levels: 19300 - 19600 bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 19520 and they are perfectly set up to get it. Measured move from today brings us almost exactly to the ath 19802. There. Are. No. Coincidences. Invalidation is below 19350. bear case: Bears need to stay below 19500 to have a reasonable chance of going more sideways and then down below 19350. Below that, they will likely gain more momentum and go down to 19300 or 19200. Until then, they have little arguments on their side after today. Market now closed 4 consecutive bars above the daily 20ema and bears could not even close the Globex gap today. That is so bullish because it’s so rare, you can not think about shorting this until bears have shown strength again. Invalidation is above 19520. short term: Bullish. Expect a meltup. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longs only. Every dip buy made you money.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
ASIANPAINT : Going Long for about 1.25% of the net capitalTook a position in the scrip, allocating about 1.25% of the net capital. I am expecting a potential upside of around 38% to the upper trendline of the channel that has formed. I will consider adding to the position if the price falls approximately 23% from the current level and touches the longer timeframe trendline, which is a significant support level for the scrip. 📢📢📢 If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly. Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments. Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too. Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It's important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
NSE:ASIANPAINTLong
by Sniper-Traders
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow. comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19200 - 19400 bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19350. short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds