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STX Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Breakout📅 Let's dive into today's analysis in the crypto market. Today's coin is STX, one of the coins that gave significant returns during Bitcoin's surge from 16k to 73k. We won't analyze Bitcoin today since I will provide a complete analysis of Bitcoin tomorrow. 🔍 Analysis of STX Project Overview STX is a layer-2 solution for Bitcoin, similar to other layer-2 solutions, it increases network speed and reduces transaction fees. Additionally, STX provides infrastructure on the Bitcoin network for building decentralized applications (DAPPs). Many well-known DAPP projects use this platform and protocol for their infrastructure. 🎲 Chart Analysis The analysis is conducted in the daily time frame. As you can see, STX had a powerful upward trend and, after reaching the resistance of 3.686 and concurrently with Bitcoin reaching its peak of 73k, it started to retrace. This retracement has been marked by a curved trendline and a trendline from the price bottom, leading the price down to the 1.316 area. 🧩 Key Support Level The support level at 1.316 is quite strong. It is significant not only from a price action perspective but also because it coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci level, adding to its importance. 📊 Volume Analysis During the last upward wave from 1.316 to 3.686, the volume of green candles began to decrease, indicating a weakening trend that was visible on the chart. After this, and during the correction phase down to 1.316, the volume continued to decrease, suggesting that traders did not engage in buying within the range of 1.316 to 3.686. This indicates that the resistance at 3.686 is not very strong, and the price is likely to test this area again. 🧲 Trendlines and Breakout Scenarios The trendlines that have brought the price down from 3.686 to 1.316 are nearing their end. The price will soon break either the upper or lower trendline. If the curved trendline is broken and its trigger is activated, the price could rise back to the 3.686 peak with a significant influx of buying volume. Conversely, if the trendline from the price bottom is broken, there are two potential scenarios: If selling volume enters the market and Bitcoin loses its 55k support, we can expect a strong bearish momentum. Breaking the 33.44 support on the RSI can confirm this momentum entering the market. If the trendline is broken but Bitcoin maintains its support and selling volume does not enter the market, we might see the bearish trend exhaust, and the price could move back above the 1.316 support level. 💥 Bitcoin's Influence The reason Bitcoin's support and resistance are crucial for this coin's movement is that STX is a layer-2 solution for Bitcoin. Layer-2 projects generally have a high correlation with their primary projects. Additionally, with Bitcoin's dominance at 54%, Bitcoin naturally influences all altcoins, especially one that serves as a layer-2 solution for Bitcoin. 🛒 Buying Strategy in Spot The safest trigger for buying this coin in the spot market is 3.686, which is the all-time high (ATH) for this coin. If the price stabilizes above this level, it could move towards new targets. However, this trigger is 130% away from the current market price, which is quite a distance. Until the price reaches 3.686, there are other triggers that, upon stabilizing above these levels, the price could move upwards. Naturally, these triggers are riskier than 3.686, and the probability of hitting a stop loss is higher. The first trigger is 1.801, which is the peak of the Low Wave Cycle (LWC). Since the price is in a High Wave Cycle (HWC) uptrend, you can consider entering in the LWC. The next trigger for buying is 2.422, which is the MWC resistance. After breaking and stabilizing above this area, we can move towards the 3.686 peak. 📝 Conclusion STX, a layer-2 solution for Bitcoin, is currently at a critical support level of 1.316, which is significant both in price action and Fibonacci terms. With decreasing volume indicating a potential test of the 3.686 resistance level again, traders should watch for key breakouts and Bitcoin's influence on the market. Considering the triggers and support levels mentioned, strategic entries can be made with proper risk management. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
1
Best Price Action Pattern For Beginners to Start FOREX Trading There are a lot of price action patterns: wedges, channels, flags, cup & handle, etc. If you're just starting out your Forex journey, it's natural to wonder which one to trade and focus on. In this article, I will show you the best price action pattern for beginner s that you need to start forex trading. I will share a complete trading strategy with entry, stop and target, real market examples and useful trading tips. High accuracy and big profits guaranteed. The pattern that we will discuss is a reversal pattern. Depending on the shape of the pattern, it can be applied to predict a bearish or a bullish reversal. Its bearish variation has a very particular shape. It has 4 essential elements that make this pattern so unique: A strong bullish impulse, A pullback and a formation of a higher low, One more bullish impulse with a formation of an equal high, A pullback to the level of the last higher low. Such a pattern will be called a double top pattern. 2 equal highs will be called the tops , the level of the higher low will be called a neckline . Remember that the formation of a double top pattern is not a signal to sell. It is a warning sign. The pattern by itself simply signifies a consolidation and local market equilibrium. Your confirmation will be a breakout of the neckline of the pattern. Its violation is an important sign of strength of the sellers and increases the probabilities that the market will drop. Once you spotted a breakout of a neckline of a double top pattern, the best and the safest entry will be on a retest of a broken neckline. Target level will be based on the closest support. Stop loss will lie above the tops. A bullish variation of a double top pattern is called a double bottom. It is also based on 4 main elements: A strong bearish impulse, A pullback and a formation of a lower high, One more bearish impulse with a formation of an equal low, A pullback to the level of the last lower high. 2 equal lows will be called the bottoms , the level of the lower high will be called a neckline . The formation of a double bottom pattern is not a signal to buy. It is a warning sign. The pattern by itself simply signifies a consolidation and local market equilibrium. Your confirmation will be a breakout of the neckline of the pattern. Once you spotted a breakout of a neckline of a double bottom pattern, the best and the safest entry will be on a retest of a broken neckline. Target level will be based on the closest resistance. Stop loss will lie below the bottoms. Double top & bottom is a classic price action pattern that everyone knows. Being very simple to recognize, its neckline violation provides a very accurate trading signal. Moreover, once you learn to recognize and trade this pattern, it will be very easy for you to master more advanced price action patterns like head and shoulders or triangle. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
1
GBPUSD analysis week 28☘️GBP/USD rebounded above 1.2800 supported by revived interest rate cut hopes. Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be pushed further to cut interest rates in the third quarter after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures showed issued a misprint, beating forecasts but with a large revision from previous figures. ☘️The most recent UK Parliamentary election took place and ended with little volatility in the markets. GBP traders will have to do their best to wait for next week's UK Industrial Production figures for May, which are expected to recover from April's sharp decline. ☘️The pair is climbing to the resistance level of 1,280 and shows signs that a strong breakout could continue next week. Some further buying should break the nearest resistance level and push the pair back to two-week highs around 1,285. The circular resistance zone around 1,290 will be where GBP investors look to take profits when the price slides to this zone. In the opposite direction, the pair may still need a recovery to continue maintaining its stable uptrend. The first support level is around 1,276 where there is strong support from the two EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines. The price can retreat more strongly to the support area of ​​1,271 retracement points of Fibonacci 0.5 and is the break out area from downtrend. Support: 1,276-1,271 Resistance: 1,285-1,289 Trading signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.28-1.290 SL 1.292 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.271-1.269 SL 1.267
by TVS-Trader
SWING IDEA - V GUARD INDUSTRIESThe technical analysis of V-Guard Industries suggests a compelling swing buying opportunity. The reasons are listed below : The stock has successfully breached a significant resistance zone at 270-280, showcasing potential for an upward trend continuation. The presence of a robust bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, coupled with the stock finding support at the 50 EMA, enhances the bullish outlook. Following a prolonged consolidation period exceeding six years, the stock is poised for a potential breakout, indicating the likelihood of substantial price movement. The formation of higher highs further reinforces the bullish sentiment and suggests an established uptrend. A notable increase in trading volumes during the breakout phase supports the authenticity of the upward movement. Target - 360 // 424 Stoploss - weekly close below 282 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:VGUARDLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
Gold price edges lower as PBoC keeps Gold buying on hold☘️Fundamental analysis Gold prices attracted some selling during early European trading on Monday. Gold lost momentum as the People's Bank of China (PBoC), China's central bank, kept its gold purchases unchanged for the second month of June, according to official data released on Sunday. It should be noted that China is the world's largest consumer of gold bars, and a pause in gold purchases could affect gold prices. On the other hand, growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the third quarter could push up unprofitable gold prices. Furthermore, political instability in France after voter opinion polls showed the final round of voting in the French parliamentary election pointed to a hung parliament, which could spur Safe haven assets like Gold. Traders will pay closer attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will testify on Tuesday ahead of June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday. ☘️Technical analysis Gold price decreased slightly during the day. Technically, the yellow metal maintains a bullish bias on the daily chart as it holds above the 34 EMA and 89 EMA. The precious metal maintains a breakout above the formed descending trend channel formed on May 10. RSI reacts at the 50 zone, signaling that gold will still maintain its upward momentum today. The first upside barrier for XAU/USD will appear at the psychological $2,400 level after overcoming Friday's peak around 2392. On the downside, support for the yellow metal lies at $2,370, a break out of a key multi-day high. Support: 2378 -2370 - 2364 - 2360 Resistance: 2385 -2393 - 2400 SELL price range 2398 - 2400 Stoploss 2403 BUY price range 2370 - 2368 Stoploss 2365
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18580 - 18800 bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd. Invalidation is above 18830. short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 84 bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable. Invalid below 82. bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet. short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between. trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
$6 Copper by 2026An update for my last copper theory based off trade pattern From 2016 till this day copper has formed a double bottom on such a large scale that makes it hard to miss. 2022 - 2023 looks to be the pullback phase back to the neckline, at liquidity (S/D). 2024 will be the year of the rally (expansion) seeing price action head towards $4.6, and then causing a second pullback before seeing ~$5.8. Local price action (todays prices) in sellers has slowed down drastically at the same time buyers are building a solid support zone.
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by Nathanl19
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bears broke the bull trend line for good and market is now fighting for 56000. Bulls want to get back above 60000 to make this a bear trap and keep the trading range alive. Bears want to keep it below 59000 and the bull trend line. Odds favor sideways movement 56000-59000 until the next breakout and my money is on the bear side for 50000 and ultimately 40000 in 2024. Quote from last week: "What could happen next for bitcoin? Market has not touched the daily 20ema for more than two weeks. The upper bear trend line will get hit soon, where I expect another rejection at that price level above 61700, like the previous 5 days. The breakout below the previous bear wedge was strong enough that this is a new trend and we are currently forming the channel with this pullback. Once market makes a new low, we know where to draw the channel lines. Odds heavily favor the bears to retest below 59000 and testing the bull trend line from 2023-10." comment: Bear trend in full swing and we have a good looking channel down. My lower targets are at least 50000 over the next 1-3 weeks and probably closing the bull gap to 47000. Even if you don’t think it’s not a bear trend and it will trade back up again, buying anything other than for a scalp before the bear channel is broken and market is trading above the daily 20ema again, is suicide for your account. current market cycle: Bear trend since we made new lows below 56000. If bulls do a huge reversal here and get back above 62000, I am wrong and this could have been a lower low inside the big trading range 50000-74000. key levels: 50000-60000 bull case: Got not much for you here. Bear trend in full force and officially a bear market since it dropped 27% from the highs. The best bulls can hope for is sideways and stopping the lower lows above 53500. Invalidation is below 50000. bear case: Bears are in full control of the market but they are not producing climactic sell offs, which increases the odds that the bear trend continues in orderly fashion. The bear trend line held since early June and W5 could bring us down to 47000ish or lower. Most likely bears want to wait for the 1h 20ema to come closer again before another leg down. It’s less likely but not impossible, that the bear trend accelerated last week and we will trade down faster in a tighter channel. Measured move from last weeks bear leg would lead to 43000 and the 50% pb for the whole bull trend since 2023-10 is 45000. Some can argue it’s 50000 and that is a reasonable take as well. I do think the breakout price from the 2023-01 high at 49000 will be hit over the next 3-6 months. Invalidation is above 62000. outlook last week: “short term: More sideways to down movement expected (not much down, max 79.7ish) before bulls try the third leg up. Can’t be anything but bullish looking at this chart until bears build bigger selling pressure.” → Last Sunday we traded 62000 and now we are at 57000. I gave you the 57000 area many weeks ago, hope you made some. short term: Bearish but pull backs around the 57000 price are expected. Market could go sideways until the daily ema comes closer. Currently at 61000. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take. current swing trade: Want to see more sideways to up trading between 53000 - 59000 first before thinking about new shorts. chart update: Replace previous two legged moves with the bearish 5 wave series but other than that, the chart was drawn 5 weeks ago and pretty fn perfect so far.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish. Quote from last week: comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout. comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf. Invalidation is below 81.3. bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now. Invalidation is above 86.27. outlook last week: “short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.” → Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some. short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure. chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks. comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again. On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480 key levels: 2300 - 2480 bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high. Invalidation is above 2510. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.” → Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460. Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 3 Best looking bull bars very late in the trend, breaking above two strong resistance lines. 75% that this is a bull trap and we break down Mo/Tu below 5580 and be on our way to test the daily 20ema and the lower bull wedge/channel line. Will short this on weakness on Monday. Next 500-1000 points are made to the downside. Can I be wrong? Absolutely and everything can and will happen in the markets. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yadayadayada. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350. comment: Market tested 5500 twice and since it found no sellers down there, bears stepped aside and bulls printed 3 climactic bull bars very very late in this trend. The odds that this is a legit breakout above multiple resistance lines is very low. Much more likely is a bull trap and market will reverse over the next 1-5 days. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5630 bull case: Bulls see this AI bubble as legit and markets can only go up. Breaking above the bull trend line from 2023-01 is ok bc Daddy Jensen is signing breasts. That the markets are only held by 7 stocks is also a big buy signal since most eco indicators are puking. Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: 16 Month old bull trend line and couple of more where market want’s to break above on low volume and declining economic activity across the board. Good luck with that. Will never buy into the frenzy. Bull trap most likely and I want to see strong selling before joining. Bears first target is 5500 and shortly after probably the gap close to 5430. Invalidation is above 5630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here. → Last Sunday we traded 5521 and now we are at 5621. Meh outlook. Was bearish if market would go below 5500 but it never did, so nothing lost or gained here. short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. medium-long term: Bearish if the latest climactic top turns out to be a trap and we trade below 5580 again. If so, we will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: None Chart update: Removed the smaller two legged correction and added another bull gap highlighter. Double top did obviously not hold but I still think this is a bull trap and a bigger two legged move sideways to down is more likely.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
3
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade. dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo. Quote from last week: comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18200 / 18800 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Invalidation is below 18540. bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800. outlook last week: short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. → Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market. short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Nothing Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Today's Analysis: Bitcoin and BNB📅Today, the market, after experiencing a dip, is in a ranging phase. We can expect the next wave of decline to begin after this correction and rest period. The coin I want to analyze today is BNB, but as always, let's start with Bitcoin. 👑 Bitcoin Analysis 🔍 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis In the 1-hour time frame, Bitcoin has corrected to 58516 and then started to decline. In recent candles, significant selling volume has entered the market. The price has also pulled back to the SMA99 and is now consolidating below the 0.382 Fibonacci level. RSI has triggered at 44.10. The next trigger is 56045, and if a candle closes below this level, we can target 53921 again. 📈 Long Position For a long position, the market structure still doesn't seem favorable. However, if you insist on opening a long position, 58516 can be a suitable trigger. As mentioned, I won't open a long position until a suitable structure forms. 📉 Short Position The next trigger for a short position is 56045. I will wait for the price to react to this level once, and on the next attempt, if it breaks, I'll open a position. The trigger at 57033 has slightly shifted, and now we can open a position if 56693 is broken, though the target for this position is smaller than the target for the 56045 trigger. 📊 Volume Analysis If the market declines, the volume of red candles should increase. If not, I will open the position with lower volume and risk since volume and momentum are crucial when opening a position. 🔍 BNB Analysis 🗂 Binance Overview Binance is one of the top crypto exchanges, handling the majority of crypto trading volume and being the most reputable exchange for traders. In addition to its trading platform, Binance also has its own blockchain with BNB as the main coin. All activities on this blockchain are conducted using BNB, which has secured the 4th position in market cap after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. 🧩 Daily Time Frame Technical Analysis In the daily time frame, as seen, after forming an ascending triangle and breaking resistance at 619, BNB couldn't hold above this level, resulting in a fake breakout and a return to the box. The trigger for confirming the fake breakout was at 591. Currently, the price has reached the support level at 499, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If this level is broken, the next targets are 450$ and 390$. 📊 Volume Analysis for BNB The volume of red candles is currently much higher than green ones, indicating strong downward momentum. However, due to the selloff candle two days ago, the market might rest for a few days before deciding whether to continue the HWC uptrend or start a correction. 🛒 Spot Buying Strategy For buying BNB in spot, I don't recommend it while the market has downward momentum, unless a daily or weekly candle closes above 619. In my opinion, waiting for the market to form a new structure can provide better entry points. 📝 Conclusion Both Bitcoin and BNB are at critical points. Bitcoin continues to show signs of a downtrend, and BNB is trying to stabilize at significant support levels amid strong selling pressure. Wait for the necessary confirmations before entering positions and closely monitor volume and momentum. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
2
EUR/USD Heading towards 1.095?Current Situation EUR/USD has shown signs of losing traction but remains above the 1.0800 level after peaking above 1.0840, its highest in three weeks. Despite the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing more than expected in June, downward revisions for May and April have prevented the USD from gaining strength. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen above 70, indicating that EUR/USD is technically overbought. However, this overbought condition does not necessarily signal an imminent drop, as long as key support levels hold. Support Levels: The 1.0800 level, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), is a crucial support. A drop below this level could see the next supports at 1.0760 and 1.0730-1.0740. Resistance Levels: On the upside, the 1.0840 level (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) serves as interim resistance, followed by the psychological level of 1.0900. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment Nonfarm Payrolls: The US NFP report exceeded expectations with a rise to 206K, higher than the forecasted 190K, but revisions for previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have tempered the positive impact. Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings: Growth slowed to 3.9% YoY, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.1%. Market Expectations Fed Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 25% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the policy rate unchanged in September. Weak job data could push the USD down further, as markets may price in a September rate cut. Conversely, stronger-than-expected NFP data could lead to reassessments regarding the timing of the Fed’s policy adjustments, potentially triggering a downward correction in EUR/USD. Upcoming Economic Events Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Appearance: Traders will look for insights on monetary policy direction. EU and US Inflation Data: Final inflation figures will be released on Thursday, which could impact EUR/USD movements. German Retail Sales and US PPI: Scheduled for next Friday, these data points will provide additional market cues.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two. Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses. Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see. It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked. The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively. Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by EsotericTrading
1
Today's Analysis: Ethereum & Bitcoin at Critical Levels📅Today, we're diving into the analysis of Ethereum (ETH) in both weekly and daily timeframes, alongside our usual analysis of Bitcoin (BTC). Let's kick things off with a detailed look at Bitcoin in the 1-hour timeframe. 👑 Bitcoin Analysis 🔍 1-Hour Timeframe Technical Analysis After a prolonged bearish wave, Bitcoin hit support at 53921 and entered a correction phase. Currently, it is breaking through the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which significantly supports the bearish trend as the volume of green candles is much lower than the red ones from the previous days. This indicates volume and trend convergence, confirming the trend's health. The next correction levels are 58516 and 59550. Upon reaching and confirming these levels, short positions can be considered. 📈 Long Position Strategy For long positions, I will hold off until the price stabilizes above the 99-day Simple Moving Average (SMA99). Once the price secures this level, I will announce the entry point for a long position. 📉 Short Position Strategy For short positions, you can utilize the levels of 58516 and 59550 during market corrections. If the market declines or you miss these two levels, you can open positions upon breaking 56045 or 53921. The levels mentioned for corrections are reactive, and since we adopt a breakout strategy, we must wait for the price to range at these levels. With a break below the range's floor and increasing sell volume, you can enter the position. The RSI trigger for confirming momentum entry is 44.10. 💰 Ethereum Analysis 🗂 Project Overview Ethereum is a blockchain-based project and one of the best in the crypto space, particularly for those interested in DeFi. Besides its native coin and blockchain, Ethereum also supports Layer 2 (L2) blockchains like Arbitrum, zkSync, Optimism (OP), Base, Linea, and Mode, which help manage transactions to reduce the load on the main blockchain, optimizing transaction fees and speeds. Ethereum's transaction fees have significantly decreased following the Shanghai and Dencun updates, dropping from 60-70 Gwei to 2-9 Gwei, attracting more users to the blockchain. Various earning methods exist on the Ethereum network. The primary method is staking 32 ETH to become an Ethereum node, which ensures network security and earns fees from network transactions and block creation. Other methods include creating Liquidity Pool Tokens (LP tokens) on DEXs and earning fees from trades and swaps or engaging in lending and borrowing, which is a vast field in itself. 🔍 Weekly Timeframe Technical Analysis In the weekly timeframe, Ethereum began an upward move from the 1550$ area, continuing up to 4100$, then faced resistance at 3876$ and started to correct. It has now formed a double top pattern, which hasn't activated yet. Remember, a pattern holds no significance until it activates. So, we disregard this pattern unless the price stabilizes below 2914. If that happens, we can say the pattern is activated, and the price could move downward. The critical point now is that the curved trendline is broken, the strong bullish momentum in the market has faded, and the price has been stabilizing below the 25-day SMA. Additionally, the 51.51 support in RSI is broken, potentially pushing the price down. 📈 Bullish Scenarios We have a few scenarios for bullish movements. First, the price doesn't stabilize below 2914, gets supported, and starts creating higher highs. Second, a further correction to the 24709 support, a significant support level for Ethereum, might prevent further price drops. Third, reaching the double top target of 2188, which is the last stronghold for Ethereum's bullish trend. 🛒 Spot Trading Strategy For spot trading, it’s better to move to the daily timeframe for clearer charts. In this timeframe, a bearish momentum has caused the price to drop from 3919 to 2883, and it’s currently resting. If the price ranges adequately and forms a suitable structure for buying, you can enter upon breaking its range box. If it doesn't range and moves directly upward, our trigger is breaking the main resistance at 3919 unless we buy according to Dow Theory rules. Upon breaking 2883, the first support is 2620, and the second is 2188. 📊 Volume Analysis The significant volume of red candles suggests a probable break of 2883, but since yesterday’s candle was a selloff, and today and tomorrow are holidays, the price might range for a few days before selling volume re-enters the market. 🔔 Entry Points Regarding the entry points mentioned, don't place orders in advance. Wait for the price to react to these levels and form a range structure. After buy volume enters and breaks the range box, you can proceed with your purchase. 📝 Conclusion In conclusion, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical levels, with Bitcoin showing bearish tendencies and Ethereum facing significant support challenges. It's crucial to wait for confirmation signals and volume trends before entering any positions. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
9