S&P500 reaches Sell ZoneThis area offers the best Risk to Reward ratio for Opening Fresh Short positions Top of the TrapZone, Once RED UMVD starts and we start seeing RED Bars again
If VIX stays high we can get another leg down!
Priceaction
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could work.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17800
bull case: Bulls kept the market above 17450 and got a strong close today. For a bull breakout above this wedge bear flag, they need consecutive bull bars above 17800. If they let the market fall below 17700 again, odds favor the bears for at least 17600 and also after 3 pushes up, bears could get a breakout below.
Invalidation is below 17700.
bear case: Bears were not strong enough to push below 17450 and then stepped aside once bulls printed consecutive 1h bull bars above the 1h 20ema. They need to reverse under 17800 or many bears will give up until at least 18000 and if the momentum is strong enough tomorrow, this could become a very strong bull trend day. The daily 20ema is at 18150 and the breakout price from the June low is 18148. If bears do not prevent the bulls under 18000, we most likely will hit 18150. Odds still favor the bears to keep the wedge bear flag alive and break below instead of above.
Invalidation is above 18020.
short term: Full bear mode but have to exit shorts above 18020ish and see how high the pullback can go before new shorts.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024.
Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event.
current swing trade: None. If bears show strength again tomorrow, want to get a short around 17900-18000 for tp 17000.
trade of the day: I thought long and hard about why I did not long bar 50 or 52 and my answer is always the same, it was a bad buy, high in the trading range and at previous highs after the market had much two sided trading and odds favored the bears to go lower. Not taking that buy was absolutely fine. If you took it, good for you and I hope you made a lot of money.
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2500
bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy.
Invalidation is below 2450.
bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart.
Invalidation is above 2475.
short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: none
trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
NZDCAD LONGBased of the monthly.
What we call a V-formation, followed by a test.
The test comes in with weak sellers and very slow.
Followed by strong buying power, where sellers can't do much.
Price has turned in a range, where the buyers seem to be stronger.
Entry will be based of a mix of Daily, 4H and 1H
Long on USDJPYThere's been a strong correction on the JPY pairs.
Currently, USDJPY has come to the origin of Higher Time Frame Bullish Trend.
We expect it continue with the Trend; so Longs can be placed.
Make sure you risk appropriately for the trade.
Cheers..!!!
BAJAJ HIND SUGAR good Long 10% ROIBajaj Hind Sugar is ready to move out of 1 month old consolidation zone.
One may consider to enter at 25 and exit at 28.30 for a quick swing.
The stock is also ready to move out of 37 zone, supply zone sooner or later, if 37 zone is taken off in monthly, one can look for a good long term target of 100.
The 37 rs zone is a strong 12 year old consolidation supply zone, the RSI also indicates a strong up swing.
SHORT with RED UMVDGREEN BARS above RED TrapZone are Good Risk to Reward Zone forr Re-entring Short. Keep an eye on the UMVD and wait for it to Turn RED and risk one Hour Bar Stop or 2 depending
on your appetite.
GBPUSD Analysis Week 32Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD ended the trading week with a last-minute win after the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) missed expectations, sending the greenback lower across the board.
The pound fell this week after the Bank of England (BoE) delivered a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Thursday morning, while US jobs data provided further warning signs that the US economy may be contracting faster than investors initially expected.
The US will see the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July on Monday. On the UK side, BRC Retail Sales for the year ending July are expected to rebound to 0.3% after a -0.5% decline in the previous period.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD forms a wide range after the NF announcement with the nearest support resistance in the range of 1.286 and 1.270. On the H4 timeframe, EMA 34 is below EMA 89, indicating that the market structure is leaning towards a bearish trend with the lowest retracement around the support zone of 1.262. On the other hand, any daily close above the resistance level of 1.286 and candle close above both EMAs confirms an uptrend with the weekly resistance peak at 1.294
Resistance: 1.286-1.294
Support: 1.270-1.262
Trading Signals
BUY GBPUSD zone 1.262-1.260 Stoploss 1.258
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.294-1.296 Stoploss 1.298
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty reversal bar on the daily chart. I still expect the lows to hold (it can be a lower low but not close below 17000) but only if this JPN carry blowup did not create an event we are already in. If something broke, next logical support is 16500 but the big bull trend line at around 16800 was last touched in 2023-10 and will most likely not break on the next touch.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17800
bull case: Bulls tried 4 times to stay above 17600 and the bull wedge broke in the US session today. If bulls fail to keep the market above 17370, the lows will come fast because many bulls will give up below today’s low. Best bulls can hope for is to stay above that price and go sideways. Their first target is a close above the 1h 20ema which is currently around 17580 and the breakout below the bull wedge. If they keep the market neutral long enough tomorrow, we could try 17600 or higher again but as of now that is very low probability.
Invalidation is below 17000.
bear case: Bears sold off into the US close again and for tomorrow I do not expect another strong up move in the Globex or early EU session. Too many bulls got trapped again and they will probably wait for a retest of 17100 to look for longs again. Bears target is obvious and since they printed 4 strong consecutive 1h bear bars, they are in control of the market again.
Invalidation is above 17650.
short term: Full bear mode. Bear flag is broken and retest of the lows probably next
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024.
Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event.
current swing trade: None but will probably look for longs around 17100
trade of the day: Long bar 2 since it was a retest of y close and stay above the bull wedge trend line. Could have closed longs at prior weekly high around 17700 or below bar 56. Next best trade was short bar 62 or bar 66. Decent chance we test the lower wedge trend line again after 3 pushes up.
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150.
Invalidation is below 5090.
bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above.
Invalidation is above 5280.
short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
ETH has taken a beating in recent days but still in the gameEthereum has taken a beating in recent days, but it is still at an excellent price to buy. As we can see, the price continues to fluctuate in a liquidity zone, or as I call it, a buyer pressure zone. My forecast is that Ethereum could continue in that zone, accumulating before taking off later on. Meanwhile, we remain in a demand zone and are accumulating.
Regards, and thank you for the support.
Gold (08/07) Wide trading range in a week without important news☘️Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices attracted some dip buyers near the $2,379-$2,378 region on Wednesday and rose to fresh daily highs heading into the European session. Weaker economic data from the United States in the coming weeks suggested that the world’s largest economy is slowing faster than initially expected. This, in turn, fueled speculations of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), acting as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal.
In addition, concerns over an economic slowdown in China and the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. However, strong demand for the US dollar (USD), fueled by a further recovery in US Treasury yields, coupled with a generally positive risk sentiment, could keep a lid on any meaningful upside move for XAU/USD.
☘️Technical Analysis
There is not much important news this week so gold is trading in a wide sideway range. The two EMA lines are still showing that the sellers are dominating the market. The RSI in the short-term frame also wants to show that the recovery of gold is being limited by the RSI 50 level. In short-term time frames such as h1 h4, gold is in a downtrend and is ready for deeper pullbacks to the support zone of 2370-2355. The important level in the sideway range will be around 2415, the peak that gold reached yesterday. Breaking the level will form a new structure for the market.
On days when there is no news that has a big impact on the market, we can identify price range zones to trade.
Support: 2386 - 2381 - 2375 - 2366
Resistance: 2405 - 2415 - 2426 - 2430
☘️Trading signals
SELL zone 2414 - 2416 stoploss 2420
SELL zone 2428 - 2430 stoploss 2434
BUY zone 2365 - 2367 stoploss 2361
BUY zone 2347 - 2345 stoploss 2341
Gold (08/06) recovers after sharp correction☘️Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on the previous day’s nice bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support around the $2,365-2,364 region. The decline was supported by some buying in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by rising US Treasury yields and risk-on sentiment, dragging the safe-haven precious metal below the $2,400 level.
Expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep a lid on US bond yields and the greenback. Moreover, geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could further limit the downside in Gold prices. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of last week’s pullback from near all-time highs amid the absence of relevant US economic releases.
☘️Technical Analysis
After retesting the important resistance zone around 2416, gold formed a bearish wave structure. The recovery of gold at 2416 has an important meaning when touching the fibonacci zone 0.5, which is also a retest of the two EMA lines 34 and EMA 89. When the candlestick force is not strong enough to break the two EMA lines to reverse the trend, the bearish structure will continue strongly. The support zone 2365 will only act as a small barrier before gold retreats to deeper support zones around 2350 and 2337.
When all 5 waves are completed, the recovery can completely surpass the all-time high when new economic cycles are formed at the end of this year.
Support: 2396 -2385 - 2365-2350
Resistance: 2412 -2418 - 2426 - 2433 - 2440
SELL zone 2426 - 2428 stoploss 2432
BUY zone 2386 - 2384 stoploss 2380
BUY zone 2375 - 2373 stoploss 2369
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
comment: Above is my medium-long term outlook was has not changed for many many months. 50000 was hit and a pullback expected. If you think my 50000 target was moronic when we were at 70000, I still do not care at all what you think about my 40000 target at 56000.
4h 20ema seems resistance again and bears trying to keep it below. It currently runs at 57100, which means I expect a trade back down to retest 50000. Bears could once again not get a decent daily close below 52000 for now, so the bull gap has gotten smaller but is still valid. The next bull gap is from 47000 - 50600 and that will be closed over the next weeks.
current market cycle: bear trend - leg 2 is from 70015 down to 49111. Measured move down would be 32000 and that’s almost exactly the breakout retest of the 2023-07 high
key levels: 491000 - 58000
bull case: Bulls first target is a 1h candle close above 57000 because the last close above the 4h 20ema was a week ago. If they could manage that, their next target is the bear trend line test around 59000. For now they are inside a weak bear flag with much two sided trading.
Invalidation is below 49000.
bear case: Only viable question for now is when most bears want a retest of the lows again. That is a 8000 point trade and I’d like to get some of dat. My uber strong bear case would take a hit if bulls get above 59000 but as of now I see it as very low probability. Bears also see this bear flag already had 4 pushes up and is technically ready to break down any moment. Many of the recent sell offs happened outside of EU or US trading hours, so I expect the same.
Invalidation is above 59000.
short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Nah, not going there today.
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17800
bull case: Bulls got their pullback but only printed an inside bar on the daily chart, which is weak. Their only goal is to get above 17900 and break above the July low and close as much of the gap to 18150 as possible. First target is 17700 and then the Globex high from Monday at 17732.
Invalidation is below 17000.
bear case: Bears kept the bounce below the 4h 20ema and below the Globex high from Monday. They want this bear flag to be shallow and mostly sideways before another strong leg down. A measured move down would bring us to 15600 but for that to happen in 2024, we would ne an event or nothing but annihilation of earnings next quarter. My head & shoulders target from 3 or 4 weeks ago was missed by less than 100 points on Monday, I consider this to be close enough.
Invalidation is above 17900.
short term: full bear mode. Target was 17844 and we got 17110. Play the bear flag for now but the lows will be retested. More sideways movement over the next days or weeks.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024.
Update: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event.
current swing trade: Closed all shorts for 800+ points. Currently not interested in anything but intraday scalps.
trade of the day: Shorting the Globex high double top 17650 after the second big bear bar. That was good for 170 points which was a bit lower than the gap to y close.
USDCHF: Bearish Pattern Identified 🇺🇸🇨🇭
Looks like all the setups that I spotted today are bearish.
One more is on USDCHF.
I see a head & shoulders pattern on an hourly time frame
that was formed after a strong intraday resistance.
Bearish breakout of its neckline is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
I think that the pair can drop to 0.8503 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
AUDUSD trading scalpingAustralian Dollar declines due to increased risk aversion, awaits US Services PMI
The Australian Dollar declines following the soft Purchasing Managers Index data release on Monday. Australia Composite PMI fell to 49.9 in July from 50.2 in June, with Services PMI decreasing to 50.4 from 51.8. The US Dollar lost ground as recent downbeat employment data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
BUY AUDUSD now zone 0.64300-0.64100
↠ Stoploss 0.63900
→ Take Profit 1 0.64600
→ Take Profit 2 0.65300
GBPUSD scalping signalsGBP/USD: Bulls push to test the 1.2840 resistance
Instead of continuing to rise, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is more likely to trade in a range between 1.2740 and 1.2840. Downward momentum has slowed; any further GBP weakness is likely limited to a retest of the 1.2710 level, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
SELL Scalping zone SELL GBPUSD now zone 1.28000-1.28200
↠ Stoploss 1.28400
→ Take Profit 1 1.27700
→ Take Profit 2 1.27000
Good luck everyone
Gold fluctuations in the new weekFundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction on Monday as the greenback weakened. The market is still digesting the dovish FOMC and a weaker US jobs report. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) are likely to remain under pressure, acting as a bullish driver for the yellow metal. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could continue to support traditional safe-haven assets like Gold.
Looking ahead, Gold traders will be watching the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh catalysts. The Services PMI is estimated to improve to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June. In case the data is stronger than expected, the USD could rise and limit the upside in the precious metal.
Technical Analysis:
Gold after NF formed a fairly wide trading range. An upward price range was formed with the price range of 2475 and 2420. The h2 time frame gives an overview of the short-term fluctuations of gold during the day. The 2411 area on Friday formed a critical zone around it with a reaction of 30 prices. so it became a strong reaction zone when gold broke out of the price channel.
Resistance: 2466 - 2475 - 2480 - 2491 - 2502
Support: 2423 - 2412 - 2405 - 2394 - 2385
SELL GOLD 2465 - 2467 Stoploss 2471
BUY GOLD 2415 - 2413 Stoploss 2408
Silver - Downside BreakoutSilver, surprisingly, isn't very bullish despite the recent market panic. However, my technicals are telling me that there's momentum with the neckline breakout to the downside.
SHIB Up Up Up and Away Only Believers Will be Here to StayPrice has been pushing up for a few days now and this has been great. I am still conducting research and analyzing SHIB, but do have some thoughts currently. I am thinking, SHIB is likely to continue higher after it has a decent pull back. This might happen at the 0.000015 to 0.00002 lvl. There are those that likely bought at 0.000006 or somewhere near here and will likely keep holding as long as price keeps pushing higher. If price starts ranging or has a strong push lower, there will be a lot of people who might get shaken out. Now if and when price starts pushing higher, there will be those that have been holding SHIB for a while, who will likely exit because they want to get away from the regretful feeling of getting in and having to hold for so long, to those that just want to breakeven. After these players are shaken out, I am thinking, that once price starts pushing higher (because the players that want to be in for the long haul will take the price drop as a discount to buy more) price will push back near the 0.00002, the hype might start increasing and people will come in and likely pump it up to around 0.00005. Once this happens, there will likely be another drop, to around the 0.00003 lvl, and then another pump to 0.00005. Once this is cracked, there will be a lot of news about how SHIB could drop another 0, price will pump up a little higher, then FOMO will start hitting the coin. If this happens around or near the BTC halving, price could pull back and then hit 0.00015. This would push SHIB to be the 3rd Crypto by market cap on the list, but that's if the other coins don't have similar moves as SHIB, which I think the other coins market caps will push higher also (which will likely put SHIB around the 7th or 8th position).
These are my thoughts and trading carries a lot of risk. Do your own due diligence before following anyone of taking there advice and manage your own risk according to what suits you.
Have some great trading own there.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
EURUSD Analysis week 32Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD gained on Friday after the Greenback was weakened by the poor US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
With the US economic data turning sour, investors extended their losses for two days on growing concerns about a broader recession in the domestic US economy, triggering a flight from risk assets and sending equity indices sharply lower.
Next week, the US will see the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July on Monday. Euro-wide retail sales for the year ending June are scheduled for release early Tuesday. This will give us a clearer picture of the current stage of the currency market.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD formed a wide range after the NF release with the nearest support resistance in the range of 1.094 and 1.082. On the H4 timeframe, EMA 34 is looking to surpass EMA 89 to escape the short-term downtrend of the past week. Specifically, it proves that the price line has broken out of the downtrend line. The uptrend may face the highest resistance at 1.098 when the price breaks out of the immediate resistance at 1.094. On the other hand, recovery is necessary in an uptrend. The price trend may retest the broken trend zone around 1.083 after some investors take profit. If the downtrend is established, the strong support zone next week will be 1.075.
Resistance: 1.094-1.098
Support: 1.083-1.075
Trading Signals
BUY EURUSD zone 1.075-1.073 Stoploss 1.071
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.098-1.100 Stoploss 1.102
