Get started

Priceaction

2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Another grind higher and most markets are at big round numbers and near their daily 20ema. Tomorrow one side will give and I have no opinion who will win this. I think it’s absolutely 50/50. dax futures comment: Expanding triangle nested inside the bull wedge right under 18000. Bears are in do or die mode at this price and at least showed some selling pressure today but everything is bought. Until we see consecutive bigger bear bars below 17900, all is bullish. Bulls need a strong breakout above 18000 but the daily 20ema is at 18046 and that will be the biggest resistance so far. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is 17700 - 18000 bull case: Bulls refuse to let the market go down and yet today closed again almost exactly at the opening price. The EU session is absolutely not buying this rally and yet we grind higher. Bulls tried to get a decent close above 17970 today but failed miserably. I have no imagination how they could strongly break above 18000 but since we are right under it, it is a real possibility. Bulls only target left for now is a daily close above the daily ema which is at 18050ish. If they achieve that, we are probably free to melt to 18300. Invalidation is below 17850. bear case: Bears are trying but they are not doing enough. Since the daily volume is atrocious, I do think many traders are sidelined and waiting rather than buying the dip. Will see tomorrow and Friday on where we close this week. Bears have their do or die moment again at 18000. Either reverse or give up and let the bear gap close to 18200. I don’t have any reasonable arguments for the bears on why we would suddenly trade below 17800 again. For now they are not doing enough. Invalidation is above 18050. short term: Neutral until breakout to either side. Bullish above 18050 and bearish below 17850. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 17900 and selling 17970. Trading range price action. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well tl;dr Bitcoin - Market is currently in balance 57500 - 62000. No more magic to it. We are in the 7th consecutive day where Bitcoin could not close above the daily 20ema. One side will give up tomorrow. comment: Last bull trend line is broken and market is moving sideways since last Thursday. Bears keeping it below 62000 which is very important but bulls still buying the dips. Market is currently in balance 57500 - 62000. No more magic to it. We are in the 7th consecutive day where Bitcoin could not close above the daily 20ema. One side will give up tomorrow. Promise. current market cycle: bear trend until bulls can break above 63000. Below 57500 we will retest 50000. key levels: 57000 - 62000 bull case: Bulls buying the dips but are failing too much at the daily ema. Tomorrow one side will give up. Bulls need a strong move above 63000 to close the bear gap. Invalidation is below 57500. bear case: Can’t make stuff up when market is moving sideways. Clear key levels given. Bears need a strong move below 57500 to make the bulls give up and retest 50000. Invalidation is above 62000. short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000 or break above 63000 medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. — current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 61400 has worked since Sunday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
EURUSD: An In-Depth Analysis and Timeless Trading Strategy👀 👉 The EUR/USD pair is the most traded currency pair in the world, and in this video, I take you through a comprehensive analysis of this highly liquid market. I also present a trade idea that can be considered for today. However, the concepts and strategies discussed are not limited to a single session—they can be applied at any time in the future across various market conditions. In this video, we explore the key features and benefits of TradingView, highlighting some of the essential tools I use in my day-to-day analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, these tools can enhance your market insights and trading precision. We delve into critical concepts such as trend analysis, market structure, price action, and the methodology for pinpointing precise entry points on any given trading day. This strategy is not just a one-time trade idea; it’s a robust approach that can be utilized across different currency pairs, making it a versatile addition to your trading toolkit. Please note that while this analysis is thorough, it should be used as part of a broader trading strategy that takes into account your personal risk tolerance and financial goals. Trading in the currency markets carries inherent risks, and it's important to approach it with a clear understanding of those risks.
by fxtraderanthony
21
Gold Price Analysis August 13Fundamental Analysis Gold prices are struggling to capitalize on the previous day’s strong gain of more than 1% and attracted some intraday sellers near a retested monthly peak in the Asian session on Tuesday. The decline could be attributed to some repositioning ahead of key US inflation figures and a positive risk-on bias, which tends to dampen demand for the safe-haven precious metal. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a broader regional conflict could dampen market optimism. This, coupled with dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which put US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive, should provide some support to the lackluster Gold prices. Traders are now looking forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for meaningful momentum. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout above the $2,448-2,450 horizontal resistance is seen as a fresh impetus for bullish traders. Furthermore, the oscillators on the daily chart have gained positive traction, further suggesting that the path of least resistance for Gold is to the upside. Hence, a further move back to challenge the record high, around the $2,483-2,484 region, looks like a clear possibility. Next up is the psychological $2,500 level, which if decisively cleared would set the stage for an extension of the upward trajectory. On the downside, the $2,450-2,448 resistance now looks to protect the immediate downside, below which, Gold could slide back to the overnight lows around the $2,424-2,423 region. The next relevant support level is anchored near the $2,412-2,410 zone ahead of the $2,400 round-figure mark. Pay attention to the support-resistance zone for the best trading strategy. Resistance: 2469 - 2475 - 2486 - 2492- 2500 - 2508 Support: 2459 - 2446 - 2434 - 2425 Sell 2485 - 2487, Stoploss 2491 Sell 2500 - 2502, Stoploss 2506 Buy 2435 - 2433, Stoploss 2429 Buy 2426 - 2424, Stoploss 2420
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - My bearish bias got obliterated today. While dax is still 100 points below the daily 20ema, sp500 and nasdaq closed above theirs. Overall much stronger buying than expected and what bears should have allowed imo. Maybe it was front running CPI or a solid short squeeze, it does not matter. All patterns allow for some over-/undershoot so bears could technically still sell off again and we have seen the highs for this pullback but that’s as low probability as it gets. More likely for sp500 is a retest of 5000, if bulls want it bad tomorrow and CPI probably has to be cold as well. Today’s US close was bullish af and we can’t expect anything but more bear pain tomorrow. Anything below 5400 would be a huge surprise again. dax futures comment: Not much new stuff to tell you. The wedge bear flag is alive but market is still below the daily ema. Bulls want 18000 and bears have to keep the gap to 18200 open or this bear trend loses much of it’s strength. Play the bear flag as seen in my weekly post, until clearly broken. Bears need a huge surprise tomorrow. Can’t be anything but bullish after today’s price action. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 18000 bull case: Bulls closed the us session at the highs and above 17900, which was previous resistance. They want the strong momentum going for 18000 tomorrow. For that they should keep it above 17850 or bears see it as a failed breakout and want to trade down to 17740 again. Bulls are in control. Invalidation is below 17850. bear case: Bears see the EU open and close which were 10 points apart. They need to stall this during the Globex session and generate huge selling pressure to keep this below 17900 again. If they fail, 18000 is almost a given. Most likely is that we see sideways movement at the highs before the US cpi release and depending on that, big up or big down but I have no idea how market will interpret the number to either side, so I will be flat as always and wait for a breakout and follow through. Invalidation is above 17950. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout out of the wedge bear flag. Bear case was hit hard today. If we stay at the highs and cpi is low, most likely much much more upside again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 Update: -136 on the short. Flat again. trade of the day: Decent selling to a new weekly low from the open and selling bar 31 was reasonable. Stop had to be new high of the day. Could you have bought bar 41,42 or 43? I don’t think so. Huge selling and the first 3 bull bars forming a low 1. Buying that is usually low probability. Getting out of shorts above bar 42 was good though. Buying 47 was good because the low 2 did not trigger and bar 47 was way to strong for bear comfort. Market then never had a 15m close below the 15m ema again.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
SCGP - TFW Wave Target Reversal Projection - Bull Trap A potential bull trap scenario with one more wave downtrend. 1. First correction - Extended flat ABC Wave B retraced 78.6% / w.a and w.C: extended 161.8% of w.A 2. Complex triangle ABCDE pattern 3. The current downtrend wave doubled zigzag ABC pattern with wave 4 in c leg targeting 38.2-50 % retracement at ma50w, creating a false breakout signal before final wave 5 downtrend. RSI at the lowest position - no bullish divergence trend reversal signal support
SET:SCGPShort
by dukeposh
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings. dax futures comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900 bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now). Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps. comment: Clear breakout above the previous channel and a decent channel upwards. Market could not close below the 15m 20ema since bar 23. On the daily chart we are near the upper resistance of the triangle and if bears come around tomorrow, r:r clearly favors them to trade back below 2450 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2536 bull case: Bulls did not meet much resistance by the bears today and we had a bull trend day on low volume. I take those with caution. Bulls next target is a higher high above 2522 and then a retest of the ath at 2536. If they can manage 2522, the ath could fall probably without much resistance and if we see a volume increase, we could potentially go much higher but that’s very low probability, given that 2500 was rejected so many times now on the weekly/monthly chart. Invalidation is below 2490. bear case: Bears stepped aside enough today but need to build much stronger selling pressure now to keep this also a lower high and stay inside the triangle. Will be interesting tomorrow. I do think odds favor them to trade back down but market will probably need either sideways movement above 2500 or a very strong sell signal like the last 2 sell offs above 2500. Bears first target is a close below the 15m 20ema and then trading below the 1h 20ema. Then they can start breaking bull trend lines. I do think much is dependent on the ppi print tomorrow and how most traders interpret it. Invalidation is above 2522. short term: Neutral above 2500. No interest in buying this at the highs. Only a very strong break above 2536 could change that. Waiting for bears to come around and if they can reverse this. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 21 + 18 or long since bar 22 or 23. Double bottom was almost perfect and had 5 consecutive 1h bull bars following it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
A1+ setup, lets catch 100pips tomorrow while risking just 10pipsSwitch to a lower timeframe (M15/M39) to properly see the change of character with the breaker block that took the low. Price is now trying to push up to the order block which it should reject from then push down to give us our 100 pips setup which is highly probable considering this week is CPI !. The stop is just 10 pips, look for entries before or during London session tomorrow. Apply proper risk and money management !.
Short
by LaBOSS_FX
5
USDJPY Scalping SignalBUY USDJPY now 147.200-147.000  ↠ Stoploss 146.800 →Take Profit 1 147.500 →Take Profit 2 148.200 Japanese Yen remains tepid as US Dollar advances due to diminished bets of Fed rate cuts The Japanese Yen declines due to low trading as traders observe the Mountain Day holiday in Japan. The US Dollar receives support due to diminished odds of Fed rate cuts following last week’s upbeat US data. Safe-haven flows may limit the downside of the JPY amid increased geopolitical tensions.
by TVS-Trader
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) time frame for XAUUSD. In this analysis we are using support and resistance along with PDH and PDL concept. If price break this middle area towards upside then we look for buy and the target is set at least PDH. But if price reject the middle area toward downside then we look for sell and the target is set at least the candle wick. after confirmation we execute our trade. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes. Always use stoploss for your trade. This is just my prediction or analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Bears will get a second leg down but it can take more time to go sideways. Whole week was basically going nowhere and as neutral as can be so you can’t go into next week with a huge bias. Both sides have valid arguments to reach prices above and below Friday’s close. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday printed two of the strongest consecutive bear bars for months and market stopped around the 200d ema. This selling is different than before and this will be the breakout to new lows, most likely down to the monthly 20ema around 17000-17400. My measured move target from 3 months ago was 17000. My best guess is that we get there over the next 2-8 weeks. Short term I expect a bounce but it’s absolutely possible that we print another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday to get to the monthly 20ema and my measured move target of 17000. comment: Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. current market cycle: Clear bear trend with the break below the previous low on Monday. Market is in W2 and we get a W3 (second leg down) over the next 1-2 weeks. It is still a minor bear trend inside the big bull trend since 2023-10 until the bull trend line around 16850 is broken. key levels: 17000 - 18200 bull case: Climactic selling lead to an expected pullback and sideways movement. Are the bulls showing strength here? All bars since Monday are heavily overlapping and bulls barely made higher highs. The only argument they have going for them is that they bought dips and closed green at the highs of the bars. They are in damage control and need to close the huge bear gap up to 18200. The higher they can get, the better and weaker the bear trend becomes. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears crashed it down to 17110 and took profits there. They are currently seeing the wedge bear flag as a minor pullback inside the near bear trend. Their target is a measured move down to around 15600 but that’s far away and we have the big bull trend line from 20231-10 a bit below 17000. They want to start testing it because its also where the monthly 20 ema is and the last time we touched it was 2023-11. Two big obvious magnets below and enough reason for a second leg down. My preferred path forward is 1-2 bear bars on the daily chart next week, another pullback to the daily ema around 18000 before another leg down to the big bull trend line below 17000. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will see a pullback but I do think it will be a very shallow one and it could stay below 18300. → Last Sunday we traded 17731 and now we are at 17776. High was 17862, so still 400 points below my target. I also wrote that we could crash down on Monday/Tuesday to 17000, which we did. Very good outlook. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Waiting for the wedge bear flag to break down and load up on shorts for a second leg down/W3 chart update: Added the wedge bear flag and adjusted the potential current channel we are in. Once the bear flag breaks down, we can draw a new channel but we won’t know for sure which one gets respected by the market until it get’s tested again. Also added the current bear gap to 18200.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. current market cycle: Bear trend started with the drop from 5600 down to 5119. The second leg will bring us to or below 5000, where I expect much more sideways movement again. That big round number will probably be fought over for the next weeks until more bad news come around or earnings Q3 will show clear deterioration. key levels: 5000-5500 bull case: Bulls already recovered a bit more than 50% of the 480 point sell off and if they get above 5450, the chances of a bear trap and not a bear trend, are bigger than a continuation of the selling. Bulls want exactly that and Monday/Tuesday will be key for the next impulse. A daily close above the 20ema would also turn the momentum in favor of the bulls again. Their target is 5430 and then a daily close above the daily ema. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears need to step in and keep the market below 5430. That’s it. If they get strong selling again on Monday, I do think that below 5300 most bulls will cover and we see a retest of 5200 and lower. Bears still see this as a pullback in a bear trend and 50-60% is a normal retracement. Invalidation is above 5430. outlook last week: short term : Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. → Last Sunday we traded 5376 and now we are at 5370. Market sold off to 5119 so my read was perfect. Down there I wrote “you can’t get bearish at these lows” and the pullback was expected and written of. Hope you made some. short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. medium-long term: Same as dax. Want to see a break of this bear flag before I calculate new targets and draw a better channel. We will likely see 5000 before end of October. current swing trade: None. Will load again on shorts on Monday/Tuesday if bears appear again. chart update: Added second bear gap, adjusted the possible bear channel and removed all broken bull trend lines.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this. Quote from last week: comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. comment : Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2520 bull case : Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently. Invalidation is below 2400. bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis) Invalidation is above 2522. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. → Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bears got below 50000 but bulls still kept the bullish gap to 52000 open. I still think this was W1 of the new bear trend and we are currently in W2. Pullback has to stay below 63000ish though. There is currently a small bear gap 61697 - 63987 and that should stay open if this is a bear trend. If not, more sideways in this expanding triangle. Bears are currently breaking it down again below 59000, so the daily 20ema held. Bearish af. Quote from last week: bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels. comment: Bears were in a rush on Monday and printed a climactic bar down to 49111 but bulls bought the dip. As I am writing this, market is falling from 61000 to 58600 and going. Bears reversed it right at the daily 20ema and kept the bear gap to 64000 open, which is very strong by the bears. We are currently in a big bear wedge which could hold for a couple more weeks. current market cycle: Trading range and bear wedge but possible that the new bear trend finally began. key levels: 49000-64000 bull case: Bulls bought the dip below 50000, which was expected. They even got to the daily 20ema again, which was 12000 points away, so decent buying. If they fail now and we trade below 56000 again, I do think that this was the last hurrah and we go much lower over the next weeks and months. Do or die for bulls. Either break above the daily ema and bear trend line and stay inside the huge triangle, or it’s 50000 again and likely even 40000 in 2024. Invalidation is below 56000. bear case: Big swings currently. Bears finally broke 50000 for the first time since 2024-02. They want the sell off from 70000 to be the last touch of 70000 for many years and the current selloff to be the first leg in the new big bear trend. They had to defend the daily 20ema around 61000 and so far they did just that. Below 56000 the odds favor more downside for 54000 and lower. Their main target is the bull gap close to 52000 and finally get a daily close below 50000/52000. Invalidation is above 63000. outlook last week: short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again. → Last Sunday we traded around 60350 and now we are at 58655. The low was 49111 and my target was 50000. Bearish target was more than met, hope you made some. short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take. Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. current swing trade: Loaded on shorts again 59000 with sl 63000 chart update: Added bear wedge
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds