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#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GBPUSD analysis week 35Fundamental Analysis GBP/USD surged in North American trading after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the green light to interest rate cuts, as he believes inflation is approaching the central bank's 2% target. The pair traded above 1.3200, at a fresh two-year high, up more than 1%. Bets on a 50bps rate cut opening in September have increased after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Conference on Friday, publicly admitted that it was finally time for the US central bank to start pushing down its benchmark interest rate. Next week, GBPUSD traders will want to keep an eye on the upcoming UK bank holiday on Monday. For the rest of the week, UK economic data releases remain limited, although the currency market will pay special attention to the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures due later next week. Technical Analysis: GBPUSD formed a strong uptrend at a two-year high following the latest Fed data. On the D1 timeframe, the EMA 34 is sloping up strongly against the EMA 89, suggesting that the market structure is tilted towards the upside with the nearest trading range around 1.328-1.314. With such a strong rally, the highest the pair can reach next week is around the resistance zone of 1.341. It is quite difficult to find a good SELL point when the market has not reacted to the price at the moment. Any pullback at this point is seen as a good time to buy rather than a trend reversal. The best BUY level is around 1.300 strong resistance zone which GBPUSD has broken through and now forms strong support zone when the pair price returns. Resistance: 1.328-1.342 Support: 1.314-1.300 Trading signals BUY GBPUSD zone 1.300-1.298 Stoploss 1.296 SELL GBPUSD zone 1.342-1.344 Stoploss 1.346
by TVS-Trader
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: 18700 was my upper target for the week and the high was 18730. Market now created 3 legs up but we don’t know high leg 3 can get. There is no reason to assume bears will begin stronger selling. If 18730 holds next week, consider me surprised. A bigger pullback after a 9% move up is expected but as of now, there are no facts to base this on. Shorting into a strong bull trend is a losing strategy in the long run. Targets for bulls are 18800, 18900 and obviously the ath at 19204. Bears would need to get below 18400 to have better arguments on their side. Quote from last week: bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line. Info: Will post the weekly updates on the DAX Index from XETRA and only daily updates on DAX futures. Everyone who trades futures should be able to cope with the fact that it’s a 60 point difference atm. comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. We are in the last leg of this trend and no one should be surprised if we close August below 18000 key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls hardly meeting any resistance by the bears on the daily chart and they dance as long as the musics plays. They know the rally is climactic and a deeper pullback can happen anytime. They want to break the bear trend line from the ath and print a new one but they would need to find much more buyers above 18700. The rally was more bears stepping aside than strong bulls buying. On the weekly and monthly chart we are at the high of this bull wedge and market bounced just shy of the monthly 20ema 2 weeks ago. If bulls close the month above 18550, it would be another buy signal. Invalidation is below 18350. bear case: Any bull buying above 18700 buys into previous resistance, near measured move target and at the bear trend line that held since May. No matter how you look at this, it is a bad buy. The rally is climactic without any pullbacks. Market only stalled for 1-2 days at most before breaking out again. Bears see all that and atrocious volume. They know it’s a short squeeze and that it can reverse fast. Right now they aren’t doing much but above 18700 bigger bears begin scaling into shorts again and if the market stalls enough, many bulls want to secure their profits before they vanish. Bears first target is 18500 and for the market to go sideways and start making lower highs and lower lows again. One more thing that’s easier to see on xetra than on futures is the monthly closes. Xetra has no close above 18510. Will this month be different? I doubt it. Also a clear ascending triangle if you take only bar bodies into account. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. → Last Sunday we traded 18322 and now we are at 18633. Neutral was wrong, market produced only 1 bear bar and even that could not get below the previous day’s low. Bad outlook. short term: I will not get bullish at 18633 when market could not close one month above 18510. I rather wait and scalp than to buy into a potential high. Rally went mostly without me but that’s ok. It’s about not losing first, then making some, then making the big bucks. Neutral going into next week. If bulls break above 18700, will scalp long for ath test. medium-long term: Market is right at the bear trend line from the ath. Decent chance we make a new one but I am much more certain that we will see 17000 in 2024 again. Will update more here next Sunday. current swing trade: Nope but I think we are getting close for me to short this again. chart update: Swapped dax futures to dax xetra and only left the most important prices on the chart and the 5 wave series. If we get a w5 in the same ballpark as W1 and W3, it could get us above 19000 but as of now, the bear trend line is valid.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
1
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / LIQUIDITY MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Here we are using support and resistance combine with liquidity concept. We have both conditions buying or selling , but as we know that the trend was bullish and also bullish momentum is very strong. So if market break the red line area which is also known as S / R towards upside and close candle upside than we look for buy. But if market reject this S / R (2472.00) area towards downside and close the candle below than we look for sell. Candle confirmation is very important so we will wait for confirmation. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes. Always use stoploss for your trade. # XAUUSD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
DEMAND / SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTION✅Gold managed to create a New All-Time High(ATH) at the beginning of the week. 🏃‍♂️Currently, Gold is moving near the 🔴PDH previous day high 🔴. 🌊According to the SMC / LIQUIDITY concept, when gold market has taken all the sell side liquidity, once the sell side liquidity has been taken completely then market will move further according to the direction of the trend. 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD) between two Consecutive Peaks. 🔔I expect Gold to continue falling to at least the 🟢Demand zone(2500 - 2496)🟢. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 30-min time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions. This is just my analyze or prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower. comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish. Invalidation is below 2490. bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500. Invalidation is above 2550. short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi| Will Gold Continue to Correct? (1H)Hey there, By analysing the OANDA:XAUUSD chart in the short-term 1-hour timeframe, it is observed that the price has experienced corrections from the $2531 level and is now showing a positive reaction within the demand zone, currently trading around $2510. In this timeframe, the outlook leans towards a bearish trend, with a potential decline to corrective targets at $2494, $2490, $2482, and $2477. The potential trends are highlighted in the above chart, and there is a possibility of a price reversal from the $2514 to $2523 range. To better understand the next price movement, it’s essential to observe how the price reacts to these levels. If momentum weakens and the necessary confirmations are received from the specified levels, the corrective scenario will gain significance. Conversely, if the price encounters increased demand and successfully penetrates and stabilizes above the mentioned levels, the possibility of further growth and invalidation of the corrective scenario increases. (For the uptrend to continue and to reach higher targets, the $2531 resistance needs to be broken, and the price must stabilize above this level.) 💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions! Happy trading!✌😎 Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SasanSeifi
2
EURAUD: Technical Outlook & Your Trading Plan Explained🇪🇺 🇦🇺 EURAUD is currently retesting a recently broken horizontal support. To sell the market with a confirmation, pay attention to a bearish flag pattern formation on a 4H time frame. Bearish breakout of a support of the flag and a 4H candle close below that will give you a strong bearish signal. A bearish continuation will be expected at least to 1.6465 level then. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
GBPUSD - Bearish Soon...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 As per my last analysis, GBPUSD rejected the lower bound of the medium-term trendline and traded higher. What's next? GBPUSD is currently hovering around the upper bound of the green and orange channels. Moreover, it is retesting a weekly major high marked in blue. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted green circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the trendlines and major high. 📚 As per my trading style: As #GBPUSD is hovering around the circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
3
SasanSeifi| Short-Term and Long-Term Insights (DOGECOIN 4D)Hey there, In the long-term four-day timeframe, the price faced significant selling pressure after a slight rise from $0.14, breaking through the $0.095 support and dropping to a demand zone around $0.081. Currently, the price is trading around $0.107. In the mid to long-term, further correction to levels between $0.070 and $0.060 is possible. However, in the short term, we might see a minor up tick to around $0.118 to $0.12. The suggested scenario is that after this short-term rise, the price could potentially retrace back to levels like $0.09. For a more accurate trend analysis, it’s essential to watch how the price reacts to key resistance levels. If it breaks and holds above the EMA 60 and the $0.125 level, there could be significant further growth. 💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions! Happy trading!✌😎 Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
by SasanSeifi
2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Sideways again but the first close above the flat daily 20ema and bulls will try to close the bear gap again. Can go both sides but shorts are slightly favored at the top of trading ranges. comment: Bulls keep buying the fn dip and we are making higher lows again. The bear gap to 64000 is open for now and bulls next and only target. If they manage to close it, they are free to melt up to 68000 again. Bears need to prevent them from doing that and the past 13 days they succeeded. The daily 20ema is as flat as it gets, so odds favor mean reversion trading but this was also the first bullish close above the daily 20ema since end of July. If bears come around, shorts are favored but until then, I am neutral and wait. Buying high in a trading range is a losing strategy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 56000 - 62000 bull case: Bulls are making higher highs inside this trading range and are at important resistance. They need the break above 62000 and strong momentum for a try at getting to 64000. I do think overall market conditions currently favor the bulls but there are no very good technical reasons why this breakout attempt could succeed, other than the mentioned above. Invalidation is below 58000. bear case: Bears only objective now is to keep this below 62000. They see a 2 week trading range in a neutral market and we are at the highs, where the odds favor the bears to reverse it. If bears fail to keep the bear gap open, they will probably give up until 68000. Invalidation is above 63000. short term: Neutral until bears come around. Want to see prices below 59000 again and a minor bull trend line break. If bulls print strong bars above 62000, I could consider longs if the momentum is strong enough. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. — current swing trade: None trade of the day: Market made higher lows since Monday so buying near previous lows was decent. On the 1h chart the strong break above 60000 was an obvious long too.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All green, all good. Bulls want more climactic buying but have to settle with grinding it up. Bears are not building enough selling pressure to print consecutive bigger bear bars on higher time frames. Only look for longs until that changes. As of now, there is no reason not to expect much higher prices and new ath. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Much two sided trading today but bulls closed it green and they are making higher highs and higher lows. We are close to 20000 and will most likely hit it tomorrow. Market is not stopping so looking for shorts is a bad strategy right now for most traders. Bears built decent selling pressure today but to no avail. Market refuses to go lower as of now. Above 20000 I don’t think bulls have any resistance until 20200 but that is weak resistance at best so it’s not totally out of the question that we will just continue in an almost straight line to 21000. For bears there is nothing but pain right now. They would need a strong 1h close below 19700 for a start and many stops would probably be below 19450-19500. current market cycle: Bull trend in bigger trading range key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls only see a 15% up move from the lows and absolutely no reason to exit longs anywhere. They want to dance while the music is playing. Buying is becoming climactic and this increases the odds of a pullback. 20000 is a big round number and we could see the start of some profit taking there but for now I have my doubts. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears are not doing much. They tried multiple times today to keep the market from advancing too much and at least they kept it below 20000 but as long as they are not even touching the 4h 20ema, they have to content with scalps and taking quick profits. The best bears can hope for is to keep it below 20000 but the odds of that are low. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Can’t be anything but bullish above 19700. Below I turn more neutral medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Between the orange lines was decent two sided trading but many many weird spikes and difficult trades to take. Buying 19800 was probably the best today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. dax futures comment: Bears printed multiple bars below the 1h 20ema. What a time to be alive. Bulls took profits on the insane meltup but bought 18400 again, which has a bull trend line running through it. As long as that holds, bulls are good. If bears come around again tomorrow, open of the week is a magnet at 19379 and the low of the week at 18347. Tomorrow evening we get the FOMC minutes, so best to be flat going into it. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls took a breather and kept it above 18400, which is still above the 4h 20ema and max bullish. Below 18347 I think we will see more profit taking and some bigger move down, maybe to the daily ema at 18170. For now bulls remain in control and higher prices are expected as long as above daily ema and the bull trend line intact. For tomorrow I expect mostly sideways movement between 18400 - 18550. Invalidation is below 18340. bear case: Bears stopped the train for now and got near the open of the week, which is good for them. They probably made the market more neutral going into FOMC tomorrow evening. If they could break below the bull trend line, we could see 18300 but everything below would be a huge surprise. They probably wont fight the bulls for 18400 too much and come around above 18500 again. Technically the bears can be hopeful because the high is still a lower high below the start of August at 18650 which was also the high tick for the month so far. Invalidation is above 18650. short term: max bullish - only look for longs as long bull trend line is intact and we are above 18300. Below we can look for lower targets like the daily ema but it will probably be just a pullback in this bull trend (inside the big trading range on the daily tf) medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: I fought the bears too many times today. Denial is the death of your account. It was just bearish since the opening reversal below bar 31. 32 was strong enough to expect more downside but it was also the low of the Globex trading range. Tough to take. Market could not print more then tails and bar 54 above the 15m 20ema and bears had no reason to exit their shorts anywhere. Bad trading on my part today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds