A Simple and Effective Strategy to Outsmart Liquidity HuntingHave you ever encountered a scenario where the price hits your Stop Loss level first, only to then fully reverse and head in the direction of your target profit, ultimately reaching it? If the answer is yes, you’ve most likely fallen victim to what is commonly referred to as a 'liquidity grab'. In other terms, this phenomenon is known as 'stop-loss hunting', and it is an inescapable occurrence within the realm of trading.
But why does it happen? The answer lies in the actions of big market players, such as banks and institutions, who need to fill their large positions. Simply put, for markets to function properly, there must be equilibrium - an equal number of buyers and sellers, a balance between supply and demand. For every buy-back and sell-off you conduct, there must be an opposing party willing to execute the trade with you. This is where brokers come into play, linking both sides of the transaction. When there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, it leads to market inefficiency, which can result in excess supply or demand, distorting price movements. Market makers help prevent this by ensuring market stability and securing better pricing for executing large orders.
For example, imagine you have analysed the sentiment and opened a SELL trade on USD/CHF at a key level, placing your Stop Loss just above the same zone. After some time, you notice the price impulsively moves towards your Stop Loss, triggering it and taking you out of the trade. Later, you watch the price flip and move in the direction you had originally predicted. Frustrated, you begin to blame the market, convinced it’s rigged against you. However, what really happened is that the price was pushed into an obvious pool of Stop Losses, allowing the positions you and many others sold to be bought back. This also enabled large institutional orders to be filled at better prices, while maintaining balance between buy and sell orders.
How do you avoid this? The key is to better understand market dynamics and make more informed decisions. In this scenario, a smarter approach would have been to place your entry where the obvious pool of Stop Losses is located. By doing so, you could have captured a more favourable risk-to-reward ratio, perhaps achieving a 1:3 trade, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
So next time, before rushing into a trade, take a step back. Assess the situation with greater patience and clarity. Often, there’s an initial push, just as the price action indicates. This move entices traders into premature entries. Afterward, a sudden liquidity grab occurs, wiping out these traders before the market reverses in the anticipated direction.
Be patient. Play it smart.
Best wishes,
Investroy
Priceaction
PEPE forecast price🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P Technical Analysis:
We’re currently at a critical support level around 0.0088004 📉. If price stabilizes below this area, expect further drops to the 0.0076411 zone, marking a potential 13.04% decline 📉.
However, there's a descending trendline ⤵️ pressing the price down. A break above this line would be a sign of reversal 🔄, targeting the first resistance at 0.0095467 💥. If the price holds above this point, it could trigger a bullish move towards higher resistances at 0.010237 (a 10.74% increase) and then to 0.0118714 (a 19.64% increase) 📈.
Key strategy: Watch for volume spikes 📊 and wait for a clean breakout above the descending trendline for a potential buying opportunity 🚀. If support breaks, prepare for deeper pullbacks ⬇️.
Stay sharp and manage your risks properly! 🛡️"
TRENDLINE / LIQUIDITY MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for EUR/USD. In this prediction or analysis we are using trendline concept strategy with liquidity and price action. So now I'm looking for buy today, because as we know that the market trend was bullish. So wait for price when it reaches to our zone then after confirmation we will place our trade.
Always use Stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management or R:R ratio.
# EURUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - 3 clear legs down and today’s selling could not reach the lower bear trend line, which showed weakness by the bears. We are close enough to the daily 20ema to expect bulls scaling into longs and hoping for a retest of 19400/19500 or higher. 1h 20ema held today too but I expect it to be broken tomorrow. Below 19200, 19000 will come fast.
comment: Not happy with the currently drawn bear channel, since market has only 1 touch of the upper trend line. I expect sideways to up movement tomorrow until we touch it and there bears have to defend it for another try at 19200. I am neutral around 19300 and can’t see bears doing another strong leg down tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 19000, minor bull trend line got hit today)
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls bought the minor bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and probably also the daily 20ema which is only 200 points lower. It was also the August high 19217. Bulls want to make 19200 support that was previously resistance before market broke strongly above it for a new ath. Bulls know that this is the first pullback in an otherwise very strong bull trend and high 1 are almost never working strongly for bears. Bulls see this as a pullback and scaling into longs, that is why we have tails below the prior 2 daily bars. Next they want to break above the 1h 20ema and retest today’s high 19428 - above that price comes 19500 probably quick because I expect many bears to have their stops there.
Invalidation is below 19190.
bear case: Bears had 3 legs down and today’s leg was weaker than before. Not good for them. They need to defend the 1h ema or risk a test of 19428. They do not have many arguments besides trading below the 1h ema. We are still above the daily ema and both bull trend lines. Either bears show strength tomorrow or bulls will take control again. Don’t. Short. The. Hole.
Invalidation is above 19430.
short term: Neutral around 19300. Bullish above 19430 and bearish only below big bear bars below 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Shorting 1h 20ema again. The selling down to 19200 was weirdly strong.
2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bulls now touched the bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and market is making higher lows and lower highs. Means contraction and we will see a breakout tomorrow. I favor the bulls to retest 2700 or higher. Only bearish below 2645.
comment : Bears tried and failed. Bulls bought the bull trend line and above 2685 I don’t expect 2692 to hold and we go for 2700 or 2708, if not higher, again. There is always the possibility of me being wrong and patterns failing. So below 2660 the bears are favored to test 2646 and below that bulls have to defend the minor bull trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 2630-2640.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2645 - 2700
bull case: Bulls in full control, still. Decent pullback on the daily chart, which was bought and bulls are free to trade higher again for the third leg up. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 2545.
bear case: Bears tried multiple times but bulls bought it all. Next stage is giving up. Most bears have stops 2685 or latest 2695. If they somehow manage to get below 2660, they want a retest of 2646 and I really can’t see them breaking that price without touching 2700 again. If bears were strong, we would have seen it by now. Obviously an event can always happen but you can’t bet on it. Right now it’s technically still a contracting triangle and we could test 2665 again.
Invalidation is above 2685 and above 2695.
short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 2660
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2665 after market showed it does not want to go lower at bar 2.
Posibilities in the gold market.Posibilities. Market still in a uptrend. Looking for bearish wave after break support channel. Notice the market did not form HH(Higher high). Wich may indicate weakness in the bullmarket. A break above the resitance trend might send gold higher again. If it can stay below posible goLd will fall towards 2625 bearish target.
Waiting for priceaction atm.
Resistance: 2668, 2685(ATH)
Support: 2653, 2640, 2631
SPY Advanced Analysis by Deno Trading: What’s Next for the S&P 5Let’s dive into the SPY analysis across multiple timeframes, looking for key insights on where the market could be headed. I’ll break it down step by step so it’s easier to follow along.
30-Minute Chart Overview:
Current Price Action: We’re sitting around $569, and what’s really interesting is that SPY has been consolidating after hitting a recent high of $570. The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and we’re right at a pivotal level.
Key Resistance: The $570 - $574 zone is a major resistance level. Every time we’ve tested it recently, we’ve seen the market pull back, indicating strong selling pressure. This zone is critical, and we’ll need to break above it with volume to see any further upside.
Support: On the downside, the first level of support is around $565, followed by $561, which aligns with the 50-period moving average on the 30-minute chart. If the price breaks below this level, we could see further downside pressure.
4-Hour Chart Insights:
Moving Average Support: On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing strong support at $561, where the 50-period moving average has been acting as a floor for recent price action. As long as SPY holds this level, the bulls still have a chance to regain control.
Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price holds $561 and pushes higher, a break above $574 could take us to new highs for the year, potentially testing levels above $580.
Bearish Case: If we fail to hold $561, I’d expect a move down towards $552, where the next level of support lies. This level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, making it an important area to watch.
Daily Chart Breakdown:
Longer-Term Uptrend: The daily chart shows that SPY is still in a broader uptrend, holding above the 200-day moving average, currently sitting around $552. This level has provided a solid base throughout the year, so as long as we remain above it, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Current Resistance: The $570 - $574 resistance zone is evident here as well. This level marks the highs from September, and breaking it would signal the market’s willingness to push towards $580 and beyond.
Weekly Chart for Perspective:
Larger Timeframe: The weekly chart tells a similar story. We’re hovering around $570, right at a major resistance level. The 50-week moving average, sitting around $512, is well below the current price, suggesting we still have a cushion before a significant breakdown would occur.
What to Watch: If we break $574 on the weekly chart, we could see a massive bullish continuation. However, failure to break this level could lead to a bigger pullback to $550 or even $530 in the weeks ahead.
Conclusion & What I’m Watching:
Bullish Breakout Scenario: If SPY breaks above $574 with strong volume, we could see a rally towards $580 or higher. This would confirm that buyers are back in control.
Bearish Rejection Scenario: On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could lead to a pullback towards $561 or even $552. If we break below those levels, the bearish case strengthens, and we could see further downside.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, we’re at a pivotal point. The next few trading sessions will determine whether we’re gearing up for a breakout or a more significant pullback. I’m watching the $570 - $574 level closely for signs of either bullish continuation or rejection.
Potential trade setup on GBPUSDWe are looking at a short trade on GBPUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is direction alignment with this trade, though the trend is still uptrend phase 2. Trade has taken out the lower stretch. We will exit the trade once range has been acheived.
Trader Order Details:
GBPUSD(Short)
E - 1.3274
SL - 1.3307
T - 1.3217
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
EURCAD: Classic Trend-Following Trading Setup 🇪🇺🇨🇦
Look at a price action on EURCAD.
After a strong bearish movement, the price started to consolidate
within a horizontal parallel channel on an hourly time frame.
A breakout of the support of the channel is a strong bearish signal that
signifies, a highly probable bearish continuation.
Next support - 1.4902
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
LIQUIDITY GRAB MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for XAUUSD. Today I'm looking for buy opportunity when price enters into our levels. so wait for confirmation after confirmation we will execute our trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and R:R ratio.
# GOLD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear trend line.
comment: Bull spike was big enough to expect a second leg. Bears tested the lows enough from a technical perspective and I do think the pain trade is up. One measured move target is 74, which would be around the upper bear trend line and that is my preferred target for the bulls as of now.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls should not let it drop below 68.5. If they keep it above the 1h 20ema, their odds continue to be great for a second leg to 73 or higher. There is a small chance that the pullback already happened to 69.76 and we move higher from here. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning before EU open. Bulls are favored.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to keep it a lower high below 72.4 or market will likely move to 73/74 with force. The 71.5 price is roughly the 50% pullback for the last bear leg and market continues to find sellers in that area. As long as that is the case, we will likely continue sideways between 66 - 72.
Invalidation is above 72.4.
short term: Bullish above 69.5, expecting a second leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08 : Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 67 was previous support and market got to 66.32 before we got a decent pullback. Could you have anticipated the spike? Maybe. The buying below 67 was strong enough to expect a second leg up and maybe retest 68. I’m happy for everyone who caught it.
Technical Analysis is NOT What the Majority Thinks It Is
One of my favourite activities during my free time is sitting on the sofa and finding analyses on TradingView that resemble the one portrayed on the left-hand side of the illustration. My goal is to try deciphering what a given author is trying to convey to us, the audience. As you know, the more noise there is on the charts, the blurrier the picture becomes. The blurrier the picture, the more there is room for curiosity and discovery.
Over the years, I’ve become more convinced that less is more and that you don’t need to clutter your charts with an abundance of instruments while conducting a technical orchestration. In fact, most people have false expectations regarding how proper technical analysis should be conducted. Many think TA is all about lines and boxes when, in reality, it’s about understanding price behaviour and making educated guesses with pre-calculated risk. Therefore, the aim of this brief educational article is to contrast two types of traders – let’s call them Average Joe and Experienced Joe – and provide professional insights into how technical analysis really functions and should be practiced.
Let’s start by scrutinising the scenario on the left. The author has identified some critical regions, drawn a few lines, and highlighted a Fibonacci retracement level of importance. Then, they sketched a game plan using arrows to indicate how the price might behave next. What’s wrong with this approach? In short, everything. The longer answer: there’s a lack of necessary technical interpretation combined with unnecessary efforts. Although some analytical tools are present, they don’t offer any depth in terms of what the price behaviour might be orchestrating. Nor do most of these instruments serve any purpose when applied in a scattered manner.
Now, let’s analyse what Experienced Joe – the trader behind the right-hand side of the screen – has put together. He has identified key regions and utilised a few tools for mapping purposes. However, his primary focus is understanding price behaviour by interpreting movements on the weekly-timeframe chart. Since he has traded the same handful of financial securities for years, he is experienced in reading charts like a book and grasping the logic behind price action. After understanding what’s unfolding, the trader finalises his game plan and executes positions.
Comparing the two traders, we can see a significant difference between using technical instruments in abundance without comprehension, and using them in moderation with the real goal of understanding price behaviour.
With that said, here is a 3-step guide on how to properly utilise technical analysis when studying a financial instrument and entering trade positions:
Step #1 - Read the chart like a book.
Where is the price potentially headed?
What has been happening recently?
What economic event caused the massive candle spike?
Does it look like the price is correcting a recent impulse?
Take a glance at the graph and try to understand the overall situation.
Step #2 - Highlight key zones and sketch a game plan.
This is a crucial level that the price has respected for a significant amount of time.
Here, the price printed a liquidity grab, so I’ll mark that.
The price is forming a reversal bottom, so I’m preparing to go long from here.
The 0.84 region looks like a solid initial target.
Sketch a preliminary game plan based on your analysis and focus on execution.
Step #3 - Execute a trade position at pre-calculated risk (usually, 1-2%).
Set your entry.
Place your Stop Loss.
Execute the trade.
In conclusion, technical analysis is not just about drawing some lines and shapes. It’s time to change the stereotype and emphasise the real utility of technical analysis. After all, trading without trying to understand price dynamics—especially if you are a technical trader—is like blindly memorising driving rules without understanding their purpose. Of course, there’s no secret recipe that works 100% of the time, including technical analysis. However, by sticking to a consistent approach and being patient, we can aim toward achieving long-term profitability.
Gold and luck to climbConsidering the news of the war and contractionary policies of the American government and the reduction of interest rates and the approach of the central and major banks of the world to buy and save gold, I expect gold to move up to the range of $2,800 in the first stage.
But in the short-term analysis, according to what you can see in the chart, we have an upward movement up to the specified range, and after that we will continue with the analysis update.
Thank you for paying attention and following me, if you have a specific symbol in mind, leave a comment for analysis.
SUI: Steady or sleepy?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Followed the count up and hit the target box.
Now
Support Zones:
$1.450: Immediate support level if the price pulls back.
$1.161: A deeper support level, which coincides with significant previous price action.
Elliott Wave Structure: The chart shows a potential completing wave 3, and a potential corrective wave 4 before possibly moving into wave 5, which might bring a new high.
Outlook: The overall trend is bullish but it is getting extended.
Breaking the higher low pattern may be the signal a correction at the larger degree is coming.
Trade Safe.
Trade Clarity.
2024-09-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin - 66000 could have been another lower high and we trade back down to 50000 next. Unclear since bulls got above the August high but have not yet touched the bear trend line from the ath. Anyhow, huge tails above and below the monthly bars. Big trading range on the weekly and monthly chart. Favoring the bears slightly for October.
comment : Bulls printed a bullish monthly bar but they had to close it above 65000 for a big buy signal going into October. Right now I think it’s again more neutral than anything else. Big trading range for 7 months and it will end over the next 3 months.
current market cycle: trading range (again a triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls fumbled the ball today imo. They had a perfect setup for higher prices and the drop down to below 64000 should not have happened. If they can get above 65000 again soon, they might pull it off for 68000 but right now I think market is in balance again.
Invalidation is below 62300.
bear case: Bears need prices below 62300, that’s the whole magic right now. Until they get it, it’s a trading range and you should not bet on a breakout, trying to be the first.
Invalidation is above 65000.
short term: Neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Short 66000 once bears closed 3 consecutive bars that got bigger, below the 1h 20ema.
SMC MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for USD/CHF. Here we are using SMC concept strategy combine with price action. Today I'm looking for buy. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Any step can be taken after confirmation without any confirmation we could not execute our trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and R:R ratio.
#USDCHF 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Support And ResistanceIn this analysis I'm analysing 4H timeframe for finding upcoming moves in EURUSD. The strategy which I use In this setup is support and resistance and price action.
So I'm looking for sell setup.
So wait when price come to our zone and how it react insise the zone.
Always use proper risk to reward ratio.
SMC CONCEPT / CHART PATTERNIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking for buy with the area of support zone, because market will first drop and then again rise and create a base and again market drop but this 2nd drop is not a clear drop in the shape of BOS, it is a liquidity sweep drop and once market swept this liquidity it will again rise toward upside.
and also we have see inverse W pattern which known as bullish reversal chart pattern. So let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market turns more neutral and bulls should not let it drop below 63000 again.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern.
comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market.
current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf
key levels : 60000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls next target is 67000 and then 68000 where we could hit the bear trend line from the ath. They are in control of the market and as long as they stay above the bull trend line, that remains so. As of now, I don’t have any reason to expect bulls to be strong enough to break that bear trend line on the upcoming 6th try. This rally is far weaker than previous ones. That does not mean it can not happen. It’s just not likely.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: I don’t know if bears want to fight for 66000 that much when they have an obvious big resistance at 68000. The last 2 weeks they did not do much in general, so don’t expect them to start now all of a sudden. Below 63000 they have more arguments but as of now, nothing.
Invalidation is above 67000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 63400 and now we are at 65800. Ok outlook.
short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000.
current swing trade : None
chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added the current bull wedge.