2024-10-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bullish spikes on all of them but markets closed mixed. All closed with a big tail above and we are where we closed yesterday. Near but still above the daily 20ema, near bull trend lines but also with bulls not strong enough to get a big breakout above with follow through. Most of the current patterns are in their last stages and the breakout will happen over the next days. I am neutral for now and scalp in both directions.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Fugly chart and yes. Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and on the 1h we have a triangle and a broad bear channel since we are making lower lows and lower highs. Which one to trade? Yeah… 20400 is kinda the midpoint of this and unless bulls get a big breakout above 20700 or bears below 20200, it’s best to fade bigger moves or join momentum. If earnings are good, this will melt again but for now I do think the market should have traded higher by now, if bulls would have wanted this bad.
current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges)
key levels: 20000 - 21000
bull case: Bulls grinding this higher but they also have only 1 daily bar closing above 20500 for 3 months. Will they give up or strongly break above on good earnings? I would not bet on the latter. Clear bull wedge on the daily chart and we are trading near the lower trend line and daily 20ema. Support should be very strong here and we can probably expect more sideways movement for 1-3 days.
Invalidation is below 20160.
bear case: Bears reject everything above 20500 but they are not able to get follow through selling. No bear wants to sell near the daily 20ema and until we close below it with a strong bear bar, I highly doubt we move much. Given the 3 months inside this bull wedge, I do favor the bears slightly to break below but just very slightly. Can you short this now? Absolutely not.
Invalidation is above 20700.
short term: Neutral
medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 20500 continues to be profitable… Selling the open was a banger trade. Bears also got a second and even third chance.
Priceaction
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
Apple at a Crossroad – Surfing to 238 or Wiping Out to 226?Alright, trading family, AAPL is catching some chop, and it’s make-or-break time. If we dip, we could slide to 229.25 or even 226.90 before the bulls try paddling back. But if buyers show up, we might ride the wave to 234.79—and if we break through there, 238.56 is the next stop.
Key Levels:
Support: 229.25 – If this breaks, 226.90 could be the next target.
Bounce Zone: 2 34.79 – Bulls need to reclaim this for more upside.
Breakout Level: 238.56 – Pushing above this opens the door for higher moves.
It’s one of those moments—either we ride the wave higher, or we get dragged under and wait for the next set. Keep your eyes peeled; this one’s gonna get interesting.
What do you think—are we riding this one up or taking a dip first? Drop your thoughts, follow, and share if this chart got you prepped for the next move.
Mindbloome trader
ETH at a Crossroads – Will We Pump to 2,915 or Slip Below 2,480?Alright, folks, Ethereum is sitting on the edge. If the bulls make a move, we could ride the wave toward 2,915 resistance. But if momentum fades, it’s a quick slide down to 2,480. This is where things could get interesting—either we break out or catch a pullback.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 2,915 – Clear this, and we might see some serious upside action.
Support: 2,683 – Bulls need to hold strong here to avoid trouble.
Downside Zone: 2,480 – If we lose steam, this could be our landing zone.
It’s one of those “stay sharp” moments—do we get a breakout, or are we in for some chop? Let me know your take—do we pump higher or dip for a reset? Drop your thoughts, follow, and share if this breakdown helped you prep for the move.
Mindbloome Trader
TESLA – Slippery Slope to 208 or a Drop All the Way to 191?Alright, traders, here’s the lowdown on Tesla (TSLA). Things are looking a bit dicey as the price slips through key zones. If the bulls don’t step in soon, we could see TSLA sliding down to the 208-207 range (black box). But if that level doesn't hold, we’re in for a deeper pull toward the 191-188 zone (orange box).
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Price: 218
First Support: 208-207 (black box) – Bulls need to show up here, or it’s more downside.
Deeper Target: 191-188 (orange box) – If sellers keep control, this could be the next landing zone.
The sellers seem to have the upper hand for now, but a bounce from 208 could shift things in the bulls' favor. Keep an eye on lower time frames to catch any early signs of a reversal.
If this analysis helped you, drop your thoughts in the comments—do we hold 208, or are we heading for 191? Follow, share, and spread the word if you found this valuable. Stay tuned for more updates.
Mindbloome Trader
NVDA – Ride to 146 or Wipeout at 137?Alright, folks, here’s the deal. NVDA is balancing on the edge—either we ride the wave up to 145-146, or the market drags us back to 137-138 for a reset. This is that make-or-break moment where bulls need to paddle hard or risk missing the set.
Key Levels:
Support: 137-138 (black box) – Lose this, and it’s back to the lineup.
Target: 145-146 (orange zone) – Bulls need to hit this to stay in control.
It’s all about how price moves in these channels—either we push higher, or we take a quick dip before the next chance comes.
What do you think—are we riding this wave or catching some chop? Let me know below.
MB Trader
Ride the wave
How to Identify and Trade Flag Patterns EffectivelyThe flag pattern is one of the most effective trading setups in the crypto market, known for its reliability and high probability of continuation in trending markets. Here’s a detailed overview of what a flag pattern is, how to identify it, and why it works so well in crypto trading.
What is a Flag Pattern?
A flag pattern appears as a brief consolidation following a strong price movement, resembling a rectangular shape. There are two main types of flag patterns: bull flags and bear flags.
Bull Flag: This pattern typically forms after a strong upward price movement (the flagpole), followed by a slight pullback or consolidation (the flag) before the price continues its upward trend. The flag usually slopes downward or moves sideways.
Example of Bullish Flag Pattern.
Bear Flag: Conversely, a bear flag occurs after a significant downward movement, followed by a consolidation that trends slightly upward, indicating a continuation of the downward trend once the price breaks down through the flag.
Example of Bearish Flag Pattern.
Identifying Flag Patterns
To identify a flag pattern, traders look for:
🏳️ Flagpole: This is the initial sharp price movement.
🏳️ Flag Formation: This should be a consolidation phase that lasts from 2-3 candles up to more than ten, depending on the timeframe.
🏳️ Volume Analysis: Ideally, the volume should be higher during the flagpole and lower during the flag consolidation. An increase in volume upon breakout is a strong confirmation of the continuation.
Here is the example chart for identifying the flag pattern:
Trading the Flag Pattern
To trade a flag pattern effectively, follow these steps:
📈 Entry: For a bull flag, consider entering the trade once the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag. For a bear flag, enter on a break below the lower boundary.
📈 Stop Loss: Place your stop loss just below the flag (for bull flags) or above the flag (for bear flags).
📈 Profit Target: A common target is to measure the height of the flagpole and project that distance from the breakout point.
Example chart showing how to place a trade using the flag pattern:
Why It Works in Crypto Markets
The flag pattern is particularly effective in the crypto market for several reasons:
📊Volatility: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, which can create strong price movements leading to clear flag formations.
📈 Trend Continuation: Flags often appear in trending markets, where there’s a significant amount of bullish or bearish momentum.
🧠 Psychological Factors: Traders recognize these patterns, leading to increased buying or selling pressure at breakout points.
Example of Bullish and Bearish Flag Pattern:
Bullish Flag:
Bearish Flag:
Flag patterns are highly effective in crypto trading, offering clear signals for trend continuation. They are especially useful in volatile markets, providing reliable entry and exit points. By identifying strong momentum during the breakout and combining it with volume analysis, traders can use flag patterns to make well-informed, high-probability trades.
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bulls got the breakout above and got rejected at 2700 again. I think we will spend a bit more time at the highs until bulls give up or we find more buyers willing to buy above 2700. Right now I still favor the bulls for continuation but only willing to buy on strong momentum.
comment : Retest 2700 is done, now what? We have a proper channel, so trade it. 2690 right now is not a good spot. Wait for a closer price to the lower trend line or look for shorts near 2700, if bulls show weakness again. New highs inside the channel are getting sold, so you should not buy into strength but rather on pullbacks.
current market cycle: bull trend (also trading range on the daily chart - 2619 - 2710)
key levels: 2670 - 2710
bull case: Bulls will likely retest 2700 tomorrow. Can they get another big breakout above it? I think so but right now it does not look like it. I expect more sideways until the bull trend line on the daily chart is closer. Bulls still in full control and I would not look for shorts on this.
Invalidation is below 2670.
bear case: Bears selling new highs but thats about it. Market is grinding higher again and we are near the ath. Nothing bearish about this. Bears can start a case if they close below 2670 again.
Invalidation is above 2720.
short term: neutral - I would not buy 2700 in hope of 2710 but rather buy decent pullbacks inside the current channel.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 2700.
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it.
current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge)
key levels: 5850 - 5920
bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
TSLA - Get Ready To Long Again...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈TSLA has been trading within a big symmetrical triangle marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone around $200 round number marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #TSLA approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
GOLD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 2H time frame for gold. I'm looking for a potential sell today.
Let's see what happens where market price goes and which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 2H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Tesla at a Crossroads: Breakout to $271 or Breakdown to $191Good morning, Trading Family!
Tesla’s price is idling in neutral, stuck between a potential breakout to $271 or a breakdown to $191. It’s like watching Elon flip a coin—will it blast off like a SpaceX rocket, or will the bears run out of juice and send it rolling downhill?
This kind of consolidation feels like the calm before the storm. Traders, keep your seatbelts fastened—whether it’s full throttle to the upside or a hard brake toward lower levels, this chart promises some action ahead.
Stay patient and focused. Trade what you see, not what you hope for.
– Mindbloome Trader
NVIDIA’s Tug of War: Bulls and Bears Face OffMorning, Trading Family! NVIDIA (NVDA) is stuck in a standoff between bulls and bears. Green arrows point to a possible breakout toward $146, while red arrows warn of a drop toward support around $127.50. It’s all about watching how price reacts at these key levels—whether momentum pushes it higher or sellers step in and take control.
Stay patient and focused. Trade what you see, not what you hope for.
– Mindbloome Trader
NZDUSD: One More Bearish Confirmation 🇳🇿🇺🇸
Earlier this week, I already predicted a bearish movement on NZDUSD.
I spotted one more bearish confirmation today.
This time, the price formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on a 4H time frame.
Its rising support was broken.
I think that the price may drop lower.
First goal - 0.604
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GOLD and worldBased on my analysis, I am looking for a buy setup below 2620 to 2590, expecting the market to move upside. iv mentioned my levels where I would like to see the reaction and take partials on this up wave.
I am not expecting this upwave to break the ATH, although current geopolitical can make a mess and continue the move to the upside, so securing partials on each level based on the reaction and adding positions will be a good idea to implement here.
OANDA:XAUUSD
As always market always win, trade with care.
SasanSeifi| Is Ethereum Poised for a Move to Higher Levels?Hey there, ✌ In the daily timeframe analysis, as shown, the price has entered a downward trend from the $4,000 range. Following this price drop, it reacted at the important support level of $2,100, oscillating between the price ranges of $2,100 to $2,800. Currently, after observing demand at the $2,300 level, the price has experienced slight positive fluctuations and is trading around $2,600.
Based on the candlestick behaviour, it is anticipated that in the short term, the price may rise towards the important resistance levels of $2,700 to $2,820, with some minor positive fluctuations. If the price breaks above $2,820 and stabilizes in lower timeframes, the likelihood of further price growth towards the resistance zone of $3,000 to $3,250 increases. In such a scenario, monitoring the price reactions at these levels will be essential for evaluating the next trend. However, if the $2,820 level is not breached and the price fails to maintain its stability, the possibility of a price retracement may rise.
The long-term outlook remains bearish, with expectations for the price to move towards the $1,800 to $1,500 range.
In the daily timeframe, the $2,450 to $2,300 levels serve as critical support. Maintaining the price above these levels is crucial for the desired scenario.
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!
If you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌✌
Price ActionIn our trading strategy, we focus on 4H identifying key supply order blocks created when the price moves downward. When the price retraces and revisits this supply order block, we will look for additional confirmation signals to enter a sell trade. This approach allows us to capitalize on potential reversals in the market while managing risk effectively.
Steps to Execute the Strategy:
Identify the Supply Order Block:
Monitor the price action for a significant decline that creates a clear supply order block. This area represents where selling interest has accumulated.
Wait for a Retracement:
Once the price moves away from the order block, we will wait for it to retrace back to this zone. A successful retest of the supply order block is crucial for our entry.
Confirm the Trade Signal:
As the price approaches the supply order block, we look for additional confirmation signals, such as bearish candlestick patterns, divergence, or other technical indicators. This confirmation is essential to ensure a higher probability of a successful trade.
Enter the Sell Trade:
Upon receiving confirmation, we will execute a sell order at the supply order block. Proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss placement, should be applied to protect our capital.
2024-10-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bulls got follow through and are at my bullish target where I expect a reversal. The July high should hold and we are at the top of the bull wedge, touched the big bear trend line from ath and saw some decent selling above 67000. Swing short for me 66803, sl 70170.
comment: Clear 3 legs up for the bulls. Big resistance 68000, two big patterns aligning and bears demonstrated selling pressure above 67000 and are currently trading below. Enough signals to see this as a reasonable short.
current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 60000 - 68000
bull case: Bulls moved up fast in the last 5 days but are at bigger resistance now. The bear trend line from the ath now held for 6 months, so do you really want to bet on a breakout above? Very hard to make a bull case here. If they break above 69000, I am surprised big time and we can only assume 70000 and higher next.
Invalidation is below 64500.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments they need to defend the bear trend line. Their next targets are 65000 and then a fight for the bull channel. Below 65000 is 63000 next, which marks my two-legged correction (ABC). I won’t squeeze more words out of these clear patterns.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Bearish
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short 67000 because bulls could not hold this price since July. Buying 65000 was the next best trade and also obvious because we had a decent trading range there yesterday and in the Globex session.
2024-10-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
dax futures
comment: A daily bear bar closing on it’s low. What a time to be alive. Kinda in the middle of the channel now, which is a bad bad place to trade. Both sides have valid arguments. I would rather sit on hands and only scalp on momentum than initiate trades around 19600.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19500 - 20000
bull case: Bulls can be happy a decent dip came which they can now buy. Will they buy 19600 or will they wait? I am not sure but would you really want to buy 19600 now in hopes of a climactic continuation above 19800? Hard to make that a good trade. I do think the rally was fueled by momentum, that is gone now.
Invalidation is below 19500.
bear case: Bears finally got a decent day and they want/need follow through tomorrow. Obvious targets to hit next are 19350ish (breakout price) and the potentially much bigger support at the daily 20ema and the bull trend line around 19300-19350. If we get there, I highly doubt bears will push their luck and we see another strong move up. On the 1h tf, the first target for tomorrow is the open of the week 19536 and that is also where a smaller bull trend line is. Can be bigger support and bears could also give up there. Hard to make a bigger bear case for now but it’s worse for the bulls to blindly buy this just because we dipped some.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Bullish but a bit more neutral right now, until we know where the next support is and bulls come around again
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 19750 was not the hard part about the short trade but holding through bar 38 - 52 was. Had to get short bar 32 or latest 33. Can you hold afterwards? Tough. Open price was an obvious magnet when we hit 19650, so do you want to hold through a 60 point up move when you are short? I did not. Could have gone short below bar 57 but then you see the spike and hope for more and when you hold, market reverses bad again and you are underwater or break even at best. Then you do what? The 15m 20ema was decent to short then but all in all tough because market wanted lower but also produced many big tails below the bars that touched 19600.