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Soft German retail sales can't stop EUR/USDThe euro has climbed to its highest level since June 29th, as the US dollar continues to struggle. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0496, up 0.85%. German consumers are being squeezed by the double-whammy of rising interest rates and double-digit inflation, and the October retail sales report shows that consumer spending was sharply lower. Retail sales dropped 2.8% YoY, versus 1.2% in September and a consensus of -0.6%. On an annualized basis, retail sales plunged 5.0%, much worse than the September read of -0.9% and the consensus of -2.8%. The soft retail sales report couldn't dampen the shine on the euro, which has climbed sharply as the US dollar can't find its footing. The dollar found itself in full retreat after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. Powell's comments were balanced and didn't stray from the steady stream of Fedspeak we've been hearing for weeks, but investors still treated the speech as dovish, sending equity markets higher and the US dollar lower. The markets were delighted that Powell essentially confirmed that the Fed would ease policy as soon as the December meeting. After four straight rate increases of 75 basis points, the Fed is poised to deliver a milder 50-bp hike, with perhaps smaller hikes in the new year. Powell said that smaller rate increases were less important than the question of high to hike and for how long. Powell added that the direction of inflation remains "highly uncertain", and that more evidence was needed to demonstrate that inflation had peaked. As well, he said that rates will likely rise "somewhat higher" than the September forecast. That certainly sounds like a hawkish stance, but the markets chose to focus on Powell's broad hint that the Fed would likely begin lowering rates as soon as next week. The Fed may not consider that a dovish pivot, but the fact remains that Powell's comments have renewed optimism, sending stocks higher and the US dollar lower. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0490. Above, there is resistance at 1.0583 There is support at 1.03537 and 1.0264
by OANDA
The USD Outlook- Elliott WavePCE was out, seems like Inflation is stable. Powell noted they will slow down the hike, so even if data is strong they will probably stick to the plan. If data is bad, which is not impossible, considering that economy is slowing down, then the DXY will fall further. So I see win-win for the bears on DXY going forward. But there will be pullbacks of course. Here is another count I am looking at; potential impulse from a monthly channel top. I will turn back bullish if I see strong bounce from 103.80 and back to 109.
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
1
EUR/USD edges higher as CPI fallsIt continues to be a quiet week for the euro. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0363. The ECB's number one priority has been bringing down inflation, which has hit double-digits. ECB policy makers are no doubt pleased that November CPI fell sharply to 10.0%, down from 10.6% a month earlier. This beat the consensus of 10.4%, and the euro has responded with slight gains. The drop in eurozone inflation was the first since June 2021, and investors will be hoping that this indicates that inflation is finally peaking. On Tuesday, German CPI showed a similar trend, falling to 10.0%, down from 10.4% (10.3% est). Still, eurozone Core CPI remained unchanged at 5.0%, matching the forecast. One inflation report is not sufficient to indicate a trend, and with inflation still in double digits, nobody is declaring victory in the battle against inflation. Still, the drop in German and eurozone inflation increases the likelihood of a 50 basis-point increase at the December 12th meeting, following two straight hikes of 75 basis points. With market direction very much connected to US interest rate movement, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today could be a market-mover. Powell is expected to discuss inflation and the labour market, and his remarks could echo the hawkish stance that Fed members have been signalling to the markets over the past several weeks. The market pricing for the December meeting is 65% for a 50-bp move and 35% for a 75-bp hike, which means that the markets aren't all on the Fed easing rates. Even if the Fed does slow to 50 bp in December, it will still be a record year of tightening, at 425 basis points. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0359. Above, there is resistance at 1.0490 There is support at 1.0264 and 1.0131
by OANDA
$SPX - What's next?$SPX - What's next? Important data coming out this week out of US as well as Powell tonight it would be a surprise if he's dovish I'd personally like a pull back in US indices and to get back in long, this principle is validated with metals as well, let's not forget NFP... As the market is forward looking, we have seen DXY decline as rates will be declining in the future as the recession heads further, the data is establishing weaker in certain areas. However, technically we are at a key area, do we pull back or do we extend further to the downside. AUD as china may open may benefit AUD - Keep a key eye as well as confluence of Indices and precious metals. The key pairs I am looking into going overall: DXY EUR YEN AUD XAU SPX DAX Looking for pull backs to go back into the trend at suitable levels matching my trade plan! Medium term positioning. All the best, Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Really short FOMC Report today as we're already taking advantage of the range and shorting from above. Illustrated on the chart are the key levels to look for if there is an FOMC move! Its likely to be priced in, however, the press conference with Powell after the statement may move the market. We'll be looking again for extreme levels to long or short the market, anything in between we'll leave for intraday trading as we don't really want to get caught mid-move. From Camelot this morning: XAUUSD 02/11/22 1H Support: 1639 / 1635 / 1630 / 1624 / 1620 / 1613 Resistance: 1645 / 1654 / 1667 / 1670 / 1675 / 1681 KOGs Bias for the day: Bearish below 1655 with targets below 1630 and below that 1613 Bullish on break of 1655 with targets above 1665 and above that 1680 Summary: Excalibur target above which we said yesterday was likely. Let’s see how the price reacts around the 60-65 region if it gets there. Plan remains the same until we break and hold above the key level. FOMC today so please take it easy on the markets. Don’t risk your accounts for one hit wonder trades! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
Macro Bear Market JUST beginning??BTC is in a very dangerous spot right now, people aren't losing their jobs fast enough (unemployment at 3.5%!!) and Netflix keep on raising subscription prices in Ukraine (war!!!) The FED might have to issue more hikes all the way to 2024, mid terms are also coming which is historically bearish for extreme risk assets (BTC??!!) TA wise, BTC is forming an extremely BEARISH descending triangle (explosive move?,!!) which could see 3k target in no time Trade wisely and close any longs, cut your losses if required as this will get MUCH much worse Macro-economical factors seem to be pointing to a structural bear market could take up to 111 months for full recovery (according to Goldman Sachs) Please share this idea as I will be providing more tips on how to navigate a full blown financial collapse!! CAREFUL
Short
by deathtotrade
5
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖 TLDR: Short-Term (-1 Day) 70:30- Bullish:Bearish Mid-Term (1 Week+) 40:60 Bullish:Bearish Long-Term (1 Month+) 60:40 - Bullish:Bearish OVERVIEW: All things looking relatively bullish over the next day or so for BTC - there is still some significant resistance to get through at $20.5k region with long term trendlines and high resistances volume. September close is notoriously bearish, so I still expect this to ring true. Expecting some very heavy volatility tomorrow with the options expiration. Ultimately my general thoughts are that we are going to track up to about $20.5k and then have a very heavy retracement from there - this could well extend well below $19k back to the $18.7k support. We are nearing the end of this daily Descending triangle so a big move is expected out of that, they are a a pretty bearish pattern and the weekly descending wedge also suggests that a $16k is still on the cards without invalidating the pattern. So in a nutshell don't commit too heavy to longs rn , we still need to break this 20DEMA in order to get any where and losing $19.1k and the 200EMA on the 1hr will likely see the start of the downward movement. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: +BULLISH FACTORS: + Low overhead Volume to $20.5k + Flipped VWAP + FLIPPED 200 EMA 1H + Holding Daily Support + Bullish Divergence on the Daily + Descending Wedge on the Weekly + Volume is consolidating for breakout BEARISH FACTORS: - 20 DEMA proving tough resistance - Overbought Rejection on Local Resistance - Descending Triangle on the Daily + Local trendline resistance NEWS: Bull: + Senator Lummis calls out U.S. leaders to welcome Bitcoin as it ‘can’t be stopped’ +🇦🇪 UAE's Ministry of Economy opens headquarters in the #metaverse. + UK investors turn to Bitcoin as GBP weakens, new data shows cryptopanic.com Bear: - Gary Gensler Speaking today Volatility * Powell speaking today at 3.15pm UK time * Options expiration on tomorrow MARKET SENTIMENT: Fear & Greed Index - Sep 28, 2022: Today: 20 (Extreme Fear) Yesterday: 20 (Extreme Fear) Avg. 1W: 22 😱 Avg. 2W: 22 😱 Avg. 1M: 23 😱 Avg. 2M: 28 😱 Avg. 3M: 27 😱 Avg. 6M: 23 😱 Avg. 1Y: 32 😣 🔸 #Bitcoin Price: $19,116 24h Low: $18,903 24h High: $20,339 MC Change: -$1.2B (-0.3%) Dominance: 37.7% 24h: -0.4% 7d: -2.3% 14d: -14.4% 30d: -4.8% 60d: -19.8% 200d: -51.6% 1y: -55.9% $BTC #BTC @bitcoin #bitcoin
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Kryptochristian
3
BOE, CPI and the FedWe're probably going to bounce from here (maybe muck around for the rest of the week and bounce next week higher); I think the BOE's QE decision is going to have people hoping that perhaps the Fed will do the same. The fact that a central bank can flinch and go the other way is a huge psychological change. This is somewhat of an exogenous event to the positive, to an already oversold market. Rally is going to continue (this is also area of the 200 weekly MA support). Then ahead is the CPI, and i think this may come in lighter than expected and the markets may rally even higher; hoping that the Fed will back off the 75bp hike and ease up going in to the end of the year. Of course it can be a terrible double digit number, in which case the markets will tank; basically translates to 'what the Fed is doing is not working, and they're driving the economy to the ground anyway'. But despite the data, and any easing of raising, since the Fed has pretty much said that they want to reach a certain target (despite what they say about being data dependent and whatnot), they're gonna plow ahead with the 75bp raise, then 50, as expected. I think this will be a big downer for the markets, and they will, despite fairly solid communication by the Fed, lose faith in the FED and find them to be stubborn and unwavering, leading the economy in to a recession in 2023. Having said that, there's always exogenous events that can change the course of this, mostly to the downside, whether that be Ukraine, Taiwan, or a worsending housing/real estate market condition in China, etc.
SP:SPX
by grenadetrade
Gold ready economic crisisThe inflation data and with the rise in interest rates we are seeing a USD strengthening with everyone but a recession has not yet been declared in the United States, something that could change everything especially for GOLD, which is the main refuge of value in the face of a crisis, we saw it in 2008 that exceeded maximums with the economic crisis, we saw it in 2020 with the health crisis exceeding maximums again. Now there is possibly a new economic crisis and right now we are experiencing the same as in 2008 with several layoffs in large companies and with quite high inflation, Powell said that it did not matter if real estate and the stock market fell, what matters to him is inflation .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ed_Ale
Economic calendar for this week is fire. Check it out! 🔥🔥🔥This week is promising to be very interesting from fundamental point of view. It's the end of financial year in USA. On the chart you can see the most important forecoming events that will influence cryptomarket. Legend: CC - Consumer confidence Powell - speaks Chairman of Federal Open Market Comitee Lagarde - speaks President of European Central Bank TB - Trade balance GDP - Gross Domestic Product It's better to not hold any trades during fundamental news as market becomes unpredictable and your stoploss may be taken. If you like the idea, please, press a like to let me know that my work is valuable for you. Thank you and trade wisely!💓😊
by Bikotrading_Academy
1
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy