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Post FOMC AnalysisDid the federal reserve just set the tone for 2024? - done with the rate hike regime - wait for a bit more evidence on inflation - switch rate cut policy With a decision in March/May still looking the most likely for now, are we going to see more downside on the DXY In the technical aspect - Price reversed from resistance of 104.30 - Currently resting along support of 102.50 which coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level - Next major support level at 99.75, with interim support at 101
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
NZD/USD slips ahead of GDP, Fed meetingThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower in Wednesday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 0.61%. US inflation ticked lower in October as expected and the release was a non-event for the markets, which slightly reduced their rate-cut pricing. Headline CPI climbed 3.1% year-on-year in November, down from 3.2% in October and in line with the market estimate of 3.1%. Core CPI, which is considered a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, climbed 4.0% year-on year in November, unchanged from October. This matched the market estimate of 4.0%. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI ticked higher. CPI came in at 0.1%, up from 0.0% in October and the core rate also rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. Both readings matched the market estimates. A decline in gasoline prices helped pull down inflation. However, a wide range of goods and services experienced price increases, suggesting that underlying inflation remains sticky. Today's FOMC meeting could provide clues as to what the Fed has in mind in the New Year. The markets have priced in a pause today at close to 100%, so the focus will be the rate statement and Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. If Powell is hawkish and pushes back against rate cuts, it could force the market to again reduce rate cut expectations. New Zealand releases GDP for the third quarter on Thursday, with expectations for a weak gain of 0.2% q/q, compared to a sharp gain in Q2 of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the market consensus stands at 0.5%, following a 1.8% gain in the second quarter. An unexpected reading could have a strong impact on the direction of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6076. Below, there is support at 0.6031 There is resistance at 0.6150 and 0.6195
by OANDA
THE KOG REPORT - NFPKOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Quick NFP Report today with the levels to look for a reaction in price. Would say we're only looking for one move, that's down into the support regions before capturing a potential tap and bounce back up. If price does go up, we'll be sitting and waiting for the order region to break and then assess the price action over the weekend before then making a plan which we will share on the KOG Report. Key levels: Support – 2000-05 and below that 1975-80. Resistance – 2035 and above that 2055, break above we’ll be on for targeting that wick. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
AUD/USD slips ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648, down 0.40%. The Australian dollar is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.38%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates at 4.35% at its Tuesday rate meeting. The central bank has paused for four straight months and the markets don't expect any further hikes. Still, the RBA could send a hawkish message along with the pause to dampen speculation about a rate hike in 2024, with inflation still high at 4.9%, which is well above the 2% target. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday, and his split message sent the US dollar sharply lower against most of the majors, including the Australian dollar which jumped 1.06%. Powell noted that monetary policy is "well into restrictive territory" and that inflation is "moving in the right direction". The markets interpreted these remarks as signals that the Fed is done with rate tightening. Although Powell warned that it was premature to assume that the Fed had achieved a "sufficiently restrictive stance", investors viewed the remarks as dovish and the US dollar fell sharply. The futures markets have priced in a rate cut in March at 59% and in May at 87%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed clearly doesn't share this stance, as most Fed members who spoke last week supported the case for holding rates at current levels for some time. This disconnect between the Fed and the markets is likely to continue as the Fed is unlikely to discuss rate cuts while inflation remains above the 2% target. The markets are looking at a rate cut in late 2024, but a lot could happen until then. If the economy cools more quickly than expected, the RBA would have to give thought to cutting rates in order to boost growth. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6639 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6603 0.6712 and 0.6748 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/CAD eyes Canadian job data, US PMIThe Canadian dollar continues to gain ground against a slumping US dollar. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3529, down 0.23%. The Canadian currency is poised to post a third straight winning week against the greenback and soared 2.25% in November. It is a busy Friday, with Canada releasing the employment report, the US publishing the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Powell speaking at an event in Atlanta. Canada's labour market has softened but remains in good shape and has shown expansion for three straight months. The economy is expected to have added 15,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the 17,500 reading in October. The market consensus for the unemployment rate stands at 5.8%, compared to 5.7% in October. This week's GDP report was another reminder that the economy remains weak. Third-quarter GDP declined by 0.3% q/q, below the revised o.3% gain in Q2 and the first decline since the second quarter of 2021. High interest rates have cooled the economy and exports were down in the third quarter as global demand remains weak. On an annualized basis, GDP slid 1.1% in the third quarter, compared to a revised 1.4% gain in Q2 and shy of the market consensus of 0.2%. The US wraps up the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has been in a prolonged slump and the PMI has indicated contraction for twelve consecutive months. The PMI is expected to improve to 47.6 in November, compared to 46.7 in October. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Investors will be listening closely to Jerome Powell's remarks today, looking for hints about upcoming rate decisions. Powell has stuck to his script of a 'higher for longer' rate policy, but the markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 84%. USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3564 in the Asian session. Above, there is resistance at 1.3665 1.3494 and 1.3434 are providing support
by OANDA
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/1/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023 - PR High: 15966.75 - PR Low: 15950.00 - NZ Spread: 37.25 Key economic events 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI - ISM Manufacturing Prices 11:00 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Maintaining weekly range - Failed to hold inventory below 15830 zone - Vol spike expected for Powell Evening Stats (As of 2:55 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 202.13 - Volume: 26K - Open Int: 281K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -5.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15247 - Mid: 14675 - Short: 13531 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2023
by mv3trader5
GBP/USD calm ahead of UK GDPThe UK economy has been struggling and Friday's GDP is expected to indicate negative growth, with a market consensus of -0.1% q/q for the third quarter. In Q2, GDP showed a small gain of 0.2%. August GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September. A soft GDP report will raise speculation about a recession and could weigh on the pound. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appeared to backtrack earlier today after saying on Wednesday that market pricing of a rate cut in August 2024 was "not totally unreasonable". Pill stated on Thursday that the BoE expected to maintain restrictive rates for an extended period, but would not make any promises. On Wednesday, Governor Bailey dismissed the possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Pill may have wanted to put to rest any speculation that his remarks contradicted Bailey's comments. The BoE maintained rates at 5.25% last week and holds its next meeting on 14 December. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be looking for some hints about monetary policy when Powell speaks later in the day. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs that the Fed would trim rates in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. 1.2287 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2340 There is support at 1.2214 and 1.2175
by OANDA
NZD/USD edges higher ahead of manufacturing PMIThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5926, up 0.26%. New Zealand's manufacturing sector has been in decline for seven consecutive months and little change is expected from the October PMI, which will be released on Friday. The market consensus stands at 45.0, compared to 45.3 in September, which marked a 2-year low. Business activity in the manufacturing sector has been dampened by weak global demand and elevated borrowing costs have exacerbated the prolonged slump. China has been struggling with a significant slowdown, which is bad news for the New Zealand economy, as China is New Zealand's number one trading partner. China is grappling with deflationary pressures, and the October inflation report was softer than expected due to a sharp decline in the price of pork. Inflation in China fell by 0.2% y/y in October, down from 0.0% in September and lower than the market consensus of -0.1%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.2%, versus a 0.2% rise in September and below the market consensus of 0.0%. If deflation continues, it could cause a downturn in inflation expectations that could dampen consumer spending. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be listening carefully as Powell speaks later today. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs of rate cuts in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. NZD/USD continues to test support at 0.5929. The next support line is 0.5858 There is resistance at 0.5996 and 0.6069
by OANDA
No such thing as a Hawkish pause? USD overrated? Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism. Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions (transitory inflation anyone?), including being able to start up the rate hiking engine again (this year or next) after a few pauses. If they do, will they do it in a timely manner? Jerome Powell, this morning noted in his public address that the committee hasn’t discussed what it might plan for its December decision but dismissed the idea that it would be difficult to start hiking again (if the conditions in the market require such an action). There are two more inflation readings and two more labor market readings before the last decision of the year. Maybe investors have shrugged off the hawkish pause rhetoric this morning though. The Australian dollar is pumping, up 0.94% at last look, while the dollar has fallen more than half a percent against the yen. The euro is only up 0.16%.
by BlackBull_Markets
Market Update - October 20th False ETF news gives bitcoin a boost: Crypto markets were frenzied on Tuesday after Cointelegraph posted an unconfirmed tweet that the SEC had approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin prices jumped over $2,000 USD in minutes before the news was deemed false. GBTC discount to NAV continues to tighten: The discount between shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the net asset value of the fund is at its lowest level in almost two years. After starting the year at a nearly 50% discount, GBTC’s discount has moved to ~13%, reflecting increased expectations that a bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the near future. Uniswap introduces 0.15$ swap fee: The move was described as an effort to “sustainably fund operations.” UNI is trading about even over the past seven days following the news. The European Central Bank moves closer to a digital euro: The bloc’s central bank announced that it had moved from the investigation phase to the preparation phase of its digital euro project. ECB president Christine Lagarde tweeted that they “envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments.” Treasury yields continue upward trajectory, and Powell sees continued strength in the US economy: US treasury yields have continued to put pressure on equities, with the 10-year treasury touching 4.98% for the first time since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the continued strength of the US economy may warrant further tightening, but didn’t foreshadow an immediate policy shift. 🏖️ Topic of the Week: Liquidity Pools ⏭️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Canadian dollar calm ahead of retail salesThe Canadian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, down 0.23%. Canada releases retail sales later today, which could result in volatility from the Canadian dollar. Canada wraps up the week with the August retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a deceleration, with an estimate of -0.3% m/m, compared to a 0.3% gain in July. On a year-to-year basis, retail sales are projected to slow to 0.2%, down sharply from 2.0% in July. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 5.0% for a second straight time at the October 25th meeting. The BoC has raised rates to high levels but has only hiked on two occasions in 2023, which indicates that on the whole,  interest rates are where the central bank wants them. I don't expect to see the BoC trimming rates before mid-2024, but at the same time, the BoC will do its utmost to refrain from further tightening. The takeaway message is that we should expect rates to remain in restrictive territory for some time yet. Last week's inflation report showed a decrease of -0.1% for both headline and core CPI in September,  which beat expectations. On a year-to-year basis, headline CPI dropped from 4.0% to 3.8% and the core rate eased to 2.8%, down from 3.3%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that inflation remained too high and that the 2% target would be difficult to reach if economic growth did not cool. Powell didn't provide any hints about future rate policy, saying that rate decisions would be based on data and the economic outlook. The Fed has been sending out a "higher for longer" message, and Powell's focus on high inflation seemed to reiterate this stance. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3643. Below, there is support at 1.3585 There is resistance at 1.3716 and 1.3774
by fisherkj4
$GOLD PRICE ACTION : (READ THE CAPTION) The four-hour gold chart shows an uptrend. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, which is a confirmation of bullish momentum. Therefore, the market is expected to reach the first resistance. Key levels The first resistance is at $1984.32, which corresponds to the 127.20% Fibonacci level. The second resistance is formed at $2006.86. Intermediate support is located at 1971.03 and can lead to a bullish return of the market. The first support level is at 1949.45, which indicates a strong support zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn6964649
Market Analysis Ahead of Fed MeetingThe FOMC is set to have their 2 day meeting. Market consensus is for a pause in rate hikes. Will the Fed shock the market like the ECB just did with their rate hike? The treasury yields market is still in a very strong uptrend & inflation expectations over the last 2 CPI prints have come in hotter due to energy. the markets are in a ver y precarious spot with the small caps & equal weight indices on the verge of breaking down. Will tech save the day?
BLACKBULL:WTI
0
by Trading-Capital
Fed's Rate Hike Looms Over US30US30 is likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks, as investors assess the risks to the economy. The latest macroeconomic news is not good for the market, with consumer sentiment falling and inflation remaining high. Fed officials have signaled that they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.75% next week, which could further dampen economic activity. Technical traders should be aware of these risks and use fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by CandlesofKarma