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ridethepig | Dollar FocusUntil this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when: The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed: Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping: While Claims show signs of forming a floor: Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher. Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example: After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by... If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY. Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.02.26AUD and NZD suffered another session of heavy selling and marked fresh lows - the move was mostly algo driven to run stops and help clean the map for dividend season. Happy to sit short and look to add from higher levels. The USD demand remains supported but given that it we are approaching dividend season, remember, there will be strong local AUD demand inside this 0.65xx handle. If you are not already holding shorts from above then look to sell future rallies into 0.665x. The medium term swing we are tracking: A rather wild week on the technical side after a significant break through the 0.670x support, this is unlocking a test of 0.645x RBA floor via rate differential. This move looks particularly vulnerable considering where we are with Copper and Iron ore: Retail have loaded the boat on the sell side and it is beginning to look very crowded from a positioning perspective. The local AUD export demand will squeeze these soft hands to eventually capitulate with a breakout campaign before resuming the leg lower to cause maximum pain! Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Dollar Macro MapA very busy few weeks in markets, finally @ridethepig with some spare time for a whole round of chart updates across the FX board and beyond. On the monetary side, a whole new raft of FED cutting expectations entered the room via coronavirus impact leg on Equities and forced the FED into a surprise -50bps cut. Markets are sticking the knife in and keeping more cuts in March also on the table while across the Atlantic the ECB are admitting defeat with only -10bps of room (btw will not make any difference!). You can see the divergence in monetary policy between ECB and FED ... FED has room to continue cutting while ECB has its rear up against the wall. The USD breakout of this channel is negating the previous uptrend that was intact. This is the leg we have been tracking together here for some months now, with the resulting trigger from Covid-19 demand and supply shock. The monthly chart is a lot cleared and easier to swing: On the technical map, importantly price failed to breach the highs via the Covid-19 short-circuit after testing 99.9x before sellers defended. Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x (we are currently here) <=> Soft Support 96.7x <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x Good luck all those in USD pairs, I have a round of important G10 and EMFX ideas coming this weekend. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments... jump into the conversation below with your charts, questions and views!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Historic Moves In Yields !An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy: Such compensation is frequently that the recession is forced as the economy ends up in some wilderness. Such an environment is however transformed into a garden of Eden if the transition away from Protectionist Public Sector flows and Governments is opened. The following examples will make my meaning crystal clear: After VIX exploded 250% !!! via coronavirus triggering the immediate mistake occurred in Monetary policy which sent shockwaves across all main markets. The Fed capitulating is a major blow to Central Banking independence, because the Whitehouse mismanagement and fiscal policies are being funded in broad daylight by Powell. The crossroads between a higher stock market and a higher dollar was always going to trigger the next round of easing and QE. Of course, Yields can be bought after the lows are set but that takes time. But buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Rates market is easy enough to defend. Even more than that, Fed's "Loose Gambit" will turn into a slow moving but safe instrument of attack on USD: And now that we have to some extent defined the logic between the wilderness markets are walking into via the demand and supply shock vis a vis the monetary policy measures referred to at the start of the segment. For the technicals 🗺 Steel Support 0.72 <=> Strong Support 0.81 <=> Soft Support 0.85 <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 1.08 <=> Strong Resistance 1.17 <=> Steel Resistance 1.24 It is extremely important to track this chart and understand that markets challenging Central Banks, though it apparently only looks like a spiteful play, in fact represents a problem in the underlying structure of protectionism in the US. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | CHF Macro PlaybookThe pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there was in 2011. Let us now take a look at this two-stage manoeuvre in a swing without opposing forces: The 1.06 barrier is giving up, this will allow the move to follow through with CHF inflows. Here the CHF side must be occupied via risk-off positioning. The franc must be bought as long as we remain in this environment, a frontal attack on demand and supply and now markets are catching up. For all those tracking the previous USDCHF chart via generational US capital outflows we it is a good time to review the diagram: In the position; Sellers have already done the technical damage because the next soft support is not found till 0.900x which will hold temporarily before we move towards 0.85xx. The theory of our opposition is really lacking, FED cuts and US virus case numbers still ticking higher will all weigh heavily on USD going forward. The truth is simple; volatility was miles ahead and played its role as leader, here is the chart @ridethepig called back last year in VIX (Volatility): The application of the VIX in this context is helping us keep in sync with risk sentiment, as long as this remains elevated, all USDCHF rallies should continue to be sold. This shows the typical and ideal situation for us using CHF as a safe-haven. Their relationship is like those of real comrades, brothers standing side-by-side and must be taken into consideration at all times! The strength of their relationship will progress and demand a testing of the 0.85xx handle, their lust of range expansion will continue to drive the flows. On the technicals, 0.9525 is the closest s/t resistance and should be sold if it arises. Otherwise, well done all those holding shorts from the highs last year. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts rolling in the comments below !!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.05A playable break here in euro, with a more solid resistance found at 1.124x which seems to be the next target for buyers. Now DAX sellers are entering back into the picture which will keep EUR in bid and help us corner our opponent up slowly before a momentum break, though this attempt could be better seen in German Equities: The position which is reached is full of resources, such as: (i) ... EURUSD macro breakdown (ii) ... ECB Floor (iii) ... birds eye view then... breakout You should also take a look at the Dollar focus which arises via FED artificial devaluation of USD: The position we have here appears really simple and clean, but is actually rather complex given the dangerous environment. A break will allow buyers to occupy the flow and expose the 1.124 jurisdiction. In positions like this, play the momentum with extreme force. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump in with your charts and views in the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
22
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.04Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped euro crack the 1.12 handle. After a nice pullback we are right back to the starting point in time for the NY session. The drivers remain the same for now, (i) bearish on risk via virus impact, while (ii) bullish on risk via Sanders fading into the distance provides the pullbacks. The euro has covered an impressive amount distance in a short period of time and as US cases begin to tick higher it will certainly push EURUSD higher. I am buying 1.110x on the day for a 1.124x target and remaining nimble around virus uncertainty. As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming! Jump in with any questions or charts below!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.04For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those tracking the 2020 macro map: It is clear the macro map was short-circuited by the USD spike to mark a medium and long term high in DXY. As usual guys thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion below for the intraday.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.03.02Fed rate cuts taking full control of the FX board as virus disruptions start to fade - it's time to go shopping in G10 and EM FX and the intervention policies will provide some USD relief. Here looking for a rebound into previous ranges in USDRUB as a pro-cyclical currency. A test of the previous range we were trading looks around the corner: The spread of the virus is naturally impacting global growth, and tipping OPEC towards intervention in Oil as well as a number of CBs. Markets now price Fed to cut 75bps by June - similar story in Australia with RBA, UK with BOE and BOC in Canada. Tracking closely for risk to find a temporary floor this week. As usual thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming .. jump into the conversation below with your views on RUB!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.02Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. Historically intervention will occur on Wednesday... look to buy rallies into 109.2x for another selling opportunity! As usual thanks for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Fading euro rallies into 1.108xThe euro finding more demand overnight with Italy behaving and looking for help on the fiscal side. Risk markets are cooking a s/t rebound via co-ordinated global policy intervention; by no means is this the end of the virus but the underlying negative tone we have been witnessing across mainstream media is starting to soften this week. Global Central Bank co-ordinated policy action will be enough to keep risk markets elevated in the short-term and allow for a temporary rebound in risk (markets are now pricing -75bps from FED ... insane !!!). I am fading rallies in EURUSD today at 1.108x, markets have gone overboard in my books on FED cuts, the impact on global growth is still going to weigh on European data going forward. The lows are currently locked by the support at 1.097x, should we lose it then it will expose them and 1.06-1.05 underneath! Those who traded the leg in USDJPY will be able to pull the trigger again at 109.2x: Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. Best of luck all those in G10 FX over the coming sessions, thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.02.26On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end rebalancing there will be room to sell USDJPY from cheaper levels later in the week. Look to fade any rallies into 110.7x with initial targets located at 110.3x and 109.8x. Invalidation of the view comes with a breach of 111.2x. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.26Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now. I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are located below 1.07. For those in Fixed Income the picture is a lot easier to see as usual they are miles ahead of the retail FX crowd. On EURUSD I am holding shorts from the initial 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. As long as the 1.09xx resistance is holding there is very little to see to the topside. The EUR weakness is a lot easier to see this morning in EURCHF, this 1.060x level is being defended by SNB: In EQ things are a lot clearer as the waterfall is in play already for DAX, coronavirus has short-circuited the global reflationary theme that market where so happy to latch onto towards the back-end of 2019: ...good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Stay tuned for a well needed round of chart updates coming across most asset classes.
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.24A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue. All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell any bounces into 1.085x/6x. A move through 1.0775 will trigger momentum. On the Bund side things are a lot clearer with a -12% day! Fast paced markets, tracking the 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. The waterfall is in play, good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Continue To Sell GBP On Rallies Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for year end. The flows are all in-line so far with the long-term macro picture. It is playing out perfectly and looking to sell rallies with risks skewed towards the downside makes sense to me. Medium term targets are located below at 1.21 and 1.15 - these are in play for 1H 2020 if things get very bad with USD strengthening via panic around virus impact and risks while GBP softens as UK lose PPP in the immediate term. Well done those already selling Sterling, and good luck anyone look to load more on rallies. I am happy to sit short and work the sell-side in Cable. The ideas are no less imaginative than those of last year which turned out to be a 1,000 tick trade: Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming !
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.18As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows. "Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on the cards. Tracking closely the highs, if we get a breakup then I will not be stubborn and hold onto the shorts, I will close. This is a tactical range trade. Good luck all those in USDRUB, we can open the short-term sentiment conversations in the comments if we get enough interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Canada CPI Event RiskWith US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via coronavirus flows will be better expressed versus EUR or even AUD because of relationship with China if things get really bad. Canada is less exposed on the monetary side (other than as collateral via oil) and as long as data holds up there will be no further rate cuts, and remember we have OPEC cuts coming next month. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump in with your charts and views below...
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | ZAR Market Commentary 2020.02.17Here tracking for a very technical pullback after a test of last week's open. Positioning is incredible stretched meaning the tree can be shaken at any minute, I want to get long USDZAR but reluctant to chase anything at these levels. Tracking a pullback into the 14.7x jurisdictions before doing anymore business here. A similar move for those tracking USDTRY: A breakdown is not necessary or fundamentally attractive in both TRY and ZAR, sitting tight and looking for cheaper levels in both makes sense to me. Market might give some of the high beta currencies a bid in the illiquid flows before EM FX receives a major hammer later in the week.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.02.14Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open. On the macro charts things are clearer: From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.14All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning there is room for a leg in EURUSD towards the 1.07xx handle to close the gap from 🇫🇷 elections. Clearly a lot more unwinding to be done and after the fresh break lower and with the macro price drivers unlikely to change in the immediate term, I will look to short 1.0925 aiming for the 1.07 lows.
Long
by ridethepig