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ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid. On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore... A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again. As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.05.26It is evident that a general round of profit taking for buyers is called for, it will act as a catalyst to kickstart a fresh leg into USD and provide a helping hand from markets to put -ve rates back on the table for Fed. One more time it is all eyes on Equities, if those betting on a quick V-shaped recovery lose their tempo we can see blood on the streets. The squeeze higher in NZDUSD is healthy into month end from a strictly positioning perspective. The USD Long boat was heavily loaded to one side and needed a shake-up. The sweep lower in AUD and NZD will demonstrate the exploitation of Keynsian economics. By pushing the USD bid the obvious collateral damage in EM FX and High Beta FX can easily lead to pressure on the inelasticity between Whitehouse / Fed combo. Watch-out for wild swings ahead, we can cover the flows live below.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.05.26On the commodity currency front, looking for risk markets to reject the move quickly this week and trigger the flows towards USD. I recommended standing aside last week, and here I have been actively adding full sized AUDUSD shorts in the 0.660x handle. The healthy cleanse of USD longs in the antipodeans will make things a lot easier to trade with the next leg lower in S&P (see chart of the day below). It will immediately be clear once equities turn and the 'V' crowd are flanked that everything was not as it seemed. Sellers have to make an attacking move at the highs and defend the possible occupancy from buyers in the jurisdiction. A sustained break in AUDUSD through the 0.665x highs will remove any cover provided from the RBA panic cut. On the other side, remember we are tracking the 2's 5's curve which is signalling loudly that we are not out of the woods! This is a brutal squeeze for USD longs, a lot of pressure applied but we are reaching boiling point. Such a wilderness will not transform into a full bloomed garden despite how politicians sell it...
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Dovish SARB On Deck!We are reaching the lows in the range right on time for SARB today. Markets are expecting a 50bps move, a little bird tells me that we are set for more... Remember the domestic story in South Africa is only going one way; sadly it's the same outcome as Turkey. On the technical side, tracking closely the 18.00 support to build longs outguessing a dovish SARB. Look to target the 18.5x and 19.0x highs and lighten up below 17.7x. Good luck.
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RBNZ To Cut!All eyes on RBNZ tonight, Equities globally are running out of steam and high beta FX looks set to suffer badly... the Governor has been very vocal around negative rates and protection via debt monetisation if necessary. Markets have quite the habit of unpinning Central Bank promises of late by choosing to apply maximum pressure. RBNZ will have to satisfy the following logic with a 15bps cut to seem credible. On the technical side, a simple breakdown in pure price can be played from the 0.610x handle. I am comfortable going into the meeting short, 0.618x is strong resistance and will keep stops protected, while to the downside 0.600x will serve a suitable initial target. The risk to the thesis comes from the RBNZ being unable to set the dovish stage correctly at this point in the game, the process of unpinning can be seen from quite a different angle. Good luck.
Short
by ridethepig
3
Lower rates = worse bank profitability.Hey. I'd like to talk about the effect of lower interest rates on something called 'net interest margin'... In other words, how banks make money. The chart attached shows US commercial banks' net interest margin (blue) versus the target Fed Funds range (white). Net interest margin (NIM) is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks or other financial institutions and the amount of interest paid out to their lenders (for example, deposits), relative to the amount of their (interest-earning) assets. What can we see from the chart? As the Fed Funds target range decreases, bank net interest margin does as well. Currently, there is talk of going negative, and just last week, Fed Funds futures priced in negative rates for the first time ever for the Dec 2020 meeting and the Jan 2021 meeting. This is important. See, if people are of the opinion that lower interest rates will lead to less bank profitability, then they are likely to short financial stocks. And if people are shorting financial stocks, it can lead to a decline in lending and liquidity in the economy - which leads to dampened demand. Over the last few years, a type of bond known as an AT1 (Co-convertible) has been used to try to sure up bank common equity tier 1 (CET1). This gives regulators a gauge of strength of the financial institution in question. It works like this... The investor buys the bond, and if the share price of the bank falls to a certain level, the bond is converted into equity to prop up the CET1 of the bank. The problem is that these investors (mainly hedgefunds and sophisticated investors), are alpha seeking... In other words, they will hedge the delta of the decline in their bond by shorting the bank stock. This creates a bit of a doom loop on two fronts, firstly by removing the validity of the AT1 instrument, but secondly, the decline in net interest margin leading to the shorting of bank stock and the incapability to adequately lend. Markets and economies function on liquidity, and without it, we are in serious trouble - which explains the lengths to which governments and central banks have gone to liquify *everything*... And why equities just keep going up... See lower rates and more QE lead to equity risk premium compression - that is, the premium paid to take the risk of investing into higher risk assets versus simply staying invested in riskless assets (such as government bonds) - and ends up with investors piling money into equity markets. If the perceived risk of investing into equities is a tiny bit greater than staying invested in risk-free assets, then you will get into equities. This is exactly what has happened over the last 10 years - and it's why the market threw a fit when the Fed tried to raise back in '18. Passive long strategies have become the norm - buying ETFs such as $SPY and simply holding - and this also affects bank profitability; less trading = less commissions paid to the dealer. This is one reason why so many banks have moved into high frequency market making activities - Volcker prevented them from prop trading, but allows for market making (which in the high frequency trading area is largely still prop trading, although trying to prove that is tough). Jerome Powell is expected to push back against negative rates tomorrow, and the rhetoric leading into this from Fed members has been that they do not like negative rates. It remains to be seen, but real yields across the curve from 1y-30y are currently priced negative... So what's the difference, really? (tongue in cheek).
F
by FinkPro
9
SPY 400 by Labor Day (S&P 4000 this summer)We have not reached the top yet. The S&P will rise due to unprecedented liquidity and serious retail FOMO will kick in for a parabolic rise to SPY 400 (S&P 4000) by labor day 2020. This is the end of a 30+ year secular bull market. Once the fed signals slowing of quantitative easing due to rising S&P and economy showing signs of recovery, the bust will reach its second stage and kick S&P down to 800. Deflation will take control, leading to more QE and trigger inflation long term. Gold $10k by end of decade. Bitcoin will tag along the melt-up and will reach ATH this summer, then crash with the S&P but find a strong support level above $20k and reach $1MM by end of decade.
AMEX:SPYLong
by HashtagTrading
3
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.04.28Across the commodity block, NZD is looking the weakest and most vulnerable with negative rates entering into the picture. This looks unavoidable now and makes NZD the more preferred short across G10 crosses. The resistance is weakly protected as we enter into FED fact territory, the market was a little too long USD and I understand the need for a healthy cleanse, however, the move looks overdone here as I am not expecting any further cuts tomorrow. Equities will hate the bad news, and high beta FX will be first out of the door... last orders at the bar!? On the technical side, strong resistance is located here at the 0.605x - 0.607x region and is the one to track for those wanting to position for FED and a further leg lower in risk markets. The goal for sellers is in protecting these highs and defending any real seizure of the advance, an initial target at the mid point to pay for risk at 0.600x and an extension towards 0.592x is in play for a simple range clear with the CB event. A break below the 0.592x lows will call into question the macro slingshot target at 0.49xx.... INSANE!!! From a macro perspective as soon as your CB unlocks negative rates or foreign asset purchases its game over! You have taken on a well hidden exchange sacrifice. Smart money will exploit it, a slingshot is in play later in the year but will require another sweep of the lows via Covid panic flows into USD ... For those waiting to buy the bird from a long-term perspective, not recommended till the end game in this current leg should we pay any attention towards the development arise. Good luck all those positioning across G10 FX for FED flows, thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
23
ridethepig | India Closing the ChapterIn this positional chart, the INR is entering back into the game, whilst USD is nearer the end and thus already well-developed. That is decisive. So the more distant EM currencies like INR actually will act as a trump card and assist in diverting flows from the king, but like all trumps we must use them sparingly: do not jump the gun is the rule. The diverting exchange of Covid flows was simply the prelude to the king (USD) marching home, which will follow in the coming weeks/months. Indian Equities were denied the advance as anticipated, the trip towards the lows was somewhat time-consuming and the travelling companion INR was too dilatory....As the currency devalued as did local stocks... In any case, the correct procedure is getting our companion (INR) and using it as a weapon to wield influence and thank holders for their loyalty. We should make good use of the cheap currency and the move that now follows by looking to sell the highs in USDINR for a move not too late after. The trip we are planning for should be carefully prepared before pulling the trigger, if possible make use of any overshoots in USD (remember we still have the 1.05/1.06 unlocked in EURUSD for reference on G10). All that before playing the diversionary swing! Softer oil will help Indian significantly as the deprecation pressure on INR was starting to crack through the economic defence. India will need an appetising fiscal policy and less reluctance from the CB to intervene. These are starting to enter into play and can be a major game changer for India in the coming months.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.04.27A healthy pullback on Friday and this morning with some USD buyers broadly taking profits. Well done all those that caught the initial target into 1.076x, a flawless selloff from the "Worm in the Apple". There is some hope making the rounds across the continent for re-openings which has provided the relief in this bounce. More fairy-dust than substance in my books as the rebound in risk (and hence EUR) will have to come from hard facts in the data from the core and periphery performance over the coming months ahead. How quickly consumers return to business as normal will be an important one to track, as will the potential for a second leg in the virus. I'm still sitting short euro and happy to scale some more back in at these levels as risk has now been paid for in the previous round of profit taking...For those following from the technical conversations around Recycling positions to cover costs of entry (recommend digging into the chart archives for more on this one). For the technicals invalidation of the bearish short-term view comes only with a breach of the 1.090x handle. While we remain below the 1.06 & 1.05 lows are exposed and vulnerable... Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Market Notes 2020.04.22As long as risk sentiment remains negative, USD will remain with an underlying bid. We are starting to see calmer waters on the FX board as euro begins to tread carefully inside this 1.08 handle. I must say I was surprised at the lack of selling interest yesterday after the Oil crash and Equities beginning to show signs of following through, there is definitely something coming on the political side for Europe its just a matter of when rather than if, after all it is the only way to save the currency. For now, European countries are still far apart on Eurobonds (in particular Germany) meaning it will take further pressure on the currency to force Merkel to bend the knee. Happy to add more shorts on any rallies into 1.089x loading zone and look for a main target at 1.05xx. For those wondering about how to play the momentum leg, a very tradable break of 1.076x support is still on the menu today.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Smoke Screens & MirrorsAfter a ruthless and cunning retrace from politicians and central bank talking heads, this piercing rally is coming to an end after reaching the full retrace target at 1250. Buyers, who would like to occupy the jurisdiction above have tried to do so in a crafty way (since the typical path looks out of the question as long as the world remains in lockdown); they have occupied the lows, driven the late sellers out of it and thus created space for this flank manoeuvre. The RUT position arises after the typical small cap under-perofmance from the panic flows: The analysis of this position shows us that sellers are once again ready to conduct another leg lower, but also the quick-witted buyer will know to cover on the contact of 1250. As long as this resistance holds, the advance cannot be administered and the nature of the retrace remains corrective rather than impulsive. A fresh round of bankruptcies will be coming over the next few weeks, I am eyeballing the 16,000 lows in DOW for reference which will carry NQ, S&P, RUT, CAC, DAX, FTSE, NI and the rest of Global Equities. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:RUTShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | OPEC, CAD and Everything In-Between...The OPEC theatre was an event for the masses, attended by unimaginable liquidity. Packed into enormous press conferences and expensive photoshoots so that the masses would be amused by the raucous discourse or moved by the collaboration. The plot seemed to contain the essence of desperation from Trump, in its concentrated and dramatic form all in attempt of saving US producers rather than saving lives... (sadly) Global Equities turning down is a faster way to get things through congress these days. Consider the following swing, which arose after the Aramco attacks last year: As the main battleground for which China, Russia and Saudis chose to swing in an attempt to play US shale. Remember it essentially boils down to the Gold:Oil ratio being a gauge of the health in petrodollar. A simple cheatsheet... lower gold:oil ratio = a healthy petrodollar structure. On the other side, if ratio rises it shows that the petrodollar market is under pressure (which has been the case for the last few years). It has found a floor at +/- 15 and now moves up towards 86 !!!! ... This is sending loud loud alarm signals that something is rotten from within. Once Saudis began selling Oil in CNY this exploded, it's a buyers market and the seller (Saudis) will always do what it takes to keep the buyers (China) happy...Sure all sounds interesting @ridethepig, So what does this mean for CNY, USD and CAD? I highly recommend digging deeper into how PBOC and CNY has responded since " The Great Lockdown " In warfare, PBOC are playing the leading role with gusto! They are skilled horsemen and took pride in setting a hard floors across Chinese Equities, always positioning in value areas which we traded together here live 4 or 5 times since the crash. This bravery (if you can call it that) has flooded their FX reserves and combined with the composition restructuring we spoke about earlier in their biggest expense (Energy) towards the lows it effectively adds stability to their current account...meaning after all the dust settles from Covid-19, it's game, set and match for China: After understanding the 'why' and 'how' behind the devaluation of Oil, you will notice how the OPEC meetings (or chariot races as I now like to call them) have become more and more extravagant. The renewed organising of longs in USDCAD dips is coming from a weak medium term outlook for CAD and the increased probability of USD taking charge once more of the haven flows, should we see another sell-off in stocks. It has been a difficult chapter but one that has seen a lot of light thrown on the subject thanks to the dissections we've performed live here together. As can be seen in the long-term Oil chart, a test of $15 eventually looks organic although we are entering in the final stages of the drama so I prefer to play this in USDCAD. You will find further considerations of the swings in the related ideas. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming. Jump in with your views below!
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | GBP Observances Of The FlowsIn December of 2019 , one of the most successful cable short position was dealt in the UK election business which invited an "official" but "highly confidential" swing that we traded live here with the confirmation of Brexit via Johnson, and then the most extreme demand shock caused a nosedive in cable via Covid-19, which allowed the lows to do damage: The difficulty in positioning on the retrace leg is that clearing 1.15xx had me bursting with curiosity. After some conversations in the right places, the flow is explained... An urgent matter that requires a complete understanding of what happens when a Central Bank capitulates to pressure from health and society and allows the Government to take full control of the monetary supply taps. Rishi Sunak asked for the moon and it's surprising how often it's given. Politicians always make the most out of a crisis , Johnson, Sunak and everyone inbetween have left dealers in complete silence. Of course it starts off as " temporary monetary scaffolding ", although with no one at the BOE to challenge the maintenance costs of this borrowing now that Carney has been replaced (btw which will soar in the coming years) the UK is in incredibly rough shape as we enter into a monetary crisis. A Downing Street / Threadneedle Street combo in attempt to bring out the big guns, although its too little too late. Brexit is coming in a few months, the path to pleasure for protectionism never leads to glory! The amount of intervention is unbelievable, my eyes have popped. Con artists know that the bolder they make the lie, the more convincing it becomes. From a strictly PPP perspective, all those with a background in economics will know that Sterling must devalue further in order to soften the devastating damage which is coming from lack of access to goods in the short-term. Whether you are a Brexiteer, or a remainer, one thing for sure is that access to markets will be hurt in the short-term. It takes no less than 5 more years for the UK to establish the same deals it currently has. A page has been turned on the Johnson health front after positive updates that he has left ICU: For the first time people are seeing Johnson returning as a great emperor. Masses swallowing the story hook, line and sinker!! Just think - if 1.25xx resistance holds and buyers fail to break it will be a textbook blind to psychology retrace! There will be headwinds to this move as the US set out on to conquer artificial USD devaluation. The issue is, if you sell Dollars where else are you going park? In the UK? ...really? You get the point. Wasting valuable time digging for opportunities, then we have a high quality item right here! Just mentally add up the cost of having UK exposure in this environment and then think of the inner zen you can find without having the pursuit of a bargain that's not really a bargain because there is still so much more economic pain to come. On the technical side , we are sitting inside a 1.25 - 1.20 range in the immediate term. After clearing the 1.15 target is has unlocked the door towards the next barrier at 1.10. Those with an eagle eye will be tracking this highs strategically as another rush to USD via further panic on the virus front and shortages and with Brexit still to come a leg from 1.25 => 1.10 is in play over the coming weeks if things go tits up for the UK (very possible!). Thanks as usual for keeping all the support coming with likes and comments, we are sitting at key value levels to start working the sell-side. Jump into the comments with your views, charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
30
Godzilla Has been slain. Return to ATHCaptain J Powell launches swiftly from the SS Fed. Undercarriage holding a multi-trillion tonne warhead he heads straight for the red snake. "QE missiles launched command." The voice echoes through central command. "The bottom is in." Commander in Chief Trump whispers under his breathe. An accumulation zone forms as QE missiles hit the beast. Clouds of uncertainty form around the lower ranges as J Powell cries "check the fib levels Goddammit." Thousands of speculators pour into the market; Shorting, longing, hedging, watching. "A higher low commander!" Trump smirks, his hand letting go of the circuit breaker switch. "Print everything you've got Captain." "Much obliged sir" J Powell unleashes a hailstorm of cash straight into Godzilla's maw. "Major resistance broken sir" The technical analyst can barely maintain himself. "TradingView ideas are bullish sir, ITS WORKING!" Godzilla rears over towards ATH with pace. Boeing shareholders cheer and cry from a distance. J Powell giving a solemn salute. Finally, Powell pulls up on the throttle and flies directly over the wounded beast. "Unlimited QE" he whispers to himself, dropping the nuke directly onto Godzilla's head. Yeah, so basically inflation is gonna carry this thing to higher highs. Even though unemployment is at a record high most Dow companies are top end industry that can survive massive economic hits. Price has already broken through and retested a fib level and is likely to continue higher. I'm going to ignore the nasty head and shoulders forming on the hourly as the price is influenced by a larger rising wedge which will likely end with a fakeout to the lower areas. With all of this being said the market is still shaken and volatile so be careful using leverage. And don't take my analysis too seriously I just wanted to draw godzilla and had to include market analysis so mods wouldn't delete it. (Mods pls)
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Piggiiieee
3
ridethepig | When will EURUSD find a bottom?A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a lot of damage to recover in the 'fact' leg across earnings and macro numbers. The dark clouds are still prevalent across Europe, until Germany bend the knee it will be difficult to grab euros with both hands. Instead a further flush of the lows is in play, in my books it will be enough to trigger capitulation and remain in this strategy. For those tracking the examples in DAX we traded the highs earlier in the year, there is marginal room for another leg lower via risk: I am starting to turn neutral there and continue to monitor the situation with an ear to the ground. USD will remain in bid until we clear the risk/panic flows in Coronavirus. For those tracking the short-term technical side in EURUSD for the long-term map we have 1.07xx handle acting as strong support, I expect a breach to trigger the political capitulation which is what we are tracking on the fundamental side . Once we clear the , to the topside a breach of 1.089xx will open up the targets above. These macro swing targets will come into play at 1.18xx, 1.25xx and 1.35xx over the coming Months and Quarters. The courage to intentionally let oneself be put under pressure for days, just on account of a remote possibility, is now rewarded. Buyers will obtain a direct attack by letting the lows go, do not rush into this move as it is one to track for the rest of the year and potentially decade. Pips are for pipsqueak’s ... this is a fundamental swing which consists of setting our opponent a difficult problem. You can see the stakes are being raised; buyers are taking their time developing the cramped floor. And yet, sellers have not yet passed the point of no return at parity, after which it becomes impossible to level the playing field. A very difficult macro concept to understand, jump into the comments with any questions, comments and views!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.26Eyes on EURUSD this morning as we enter into M and Q end rebalancing to put the 🍒 on top (as if there is not already enough in play). A healthy pullback towards 1.097x is enough to draw sellers back in and makes me lean towards playing another leg towards the downside with next 🔑 support located at 1.05xx handle lows. There will be fresh supply at current levels as no one wants to hold risk into month end - fear remains prevalent across the globe and on a humanist level sentiment remains awful. On a slightly more positive note, once these dark clouds clear (still on track for early April) then the path is paved for a massive rebound in risk assets. Remaining as nimble as possible is the pragmatic approach. The idea is no less imaginative than that of the recently posted GBPUSD : Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | NZD Macro UpdatesHere we go with a round of Macro chart updates, the decline is starting to run out of steam as we enter into support. The initial bounce does not nullify the decline we have seen over the past four years, however it wields influence with 2021 and beyond. The parallel channel we will use for reference technically to define clearly the jurisdictions on both sides. To the topside, resistance can be found at 0.661x which will attract selling interest, while support is located underneath at mid-term 0.58xx. As momentum stalls across the board, it is screaming exhaustion to the downside. Like with physics we will allow the downtrend to exhaust before continuing to create a new MT/LT picture. AUDNZD finding a floor... To put simply, I am expecting a test of 0.58xx over the coming months which will act as a buying interest for the next decade! Highly recommend jumping into the comments with your NZD long-term maps, we can open the macro conversation and create a thread for all to benefit from. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig