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GBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth DataGBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth Data The Pound Sterling finds itself at a crossroads following the release of disappointing UK wage growth figures for the quarter ending November. Despite steady employment levels, the looming economic challenges cast a shadow on the currency's performance. A risk-off sentiment prevails, further intensified by concerns over UK inflation data, keeping the Pound Sterling under pressure. Market Response: During Tuesday's European morning session, the GBP/USD took a step back as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled a slowdown in Average Earnings data for the three months leading up to November. This unexpected deceleration adds to the complexity of an already challenging economic landscape. Economic Challenges: The UK economy faces the ominous prospect of a technical recession, with the ONS reporting a contraction in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of England (BoE) shares a cautious outlook, expressing less confidence in any growth during the final quarter of 2023. Factors such as higher interest rates and an escalating cost-of-living crisis contribute to the prevailing economic uncertainty. Technical Analysis: Examining the GBP/USD from a technical standpoint, the price retraced to the Demand Zone around the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This area becomes particularly significant due to the confluence with the Supply zone and the presence of the dynamic trendline within the Bullish Channel. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator signaling an Oversold condition presents an intriguing opportunity for traders. This setting potentially offers a discounted buying opportunity, with an optimistic outlook for a price surge aligned with the ongoing Bullish trend. Conclusion: As economic challenges cast a shadow on the Pound Sterling's performance, traders and investors closely monitor the technical landscape for potential opportunities. The convergence of factors, including the economic headwinds, technical indicators, and the cautious stance of the BoE, shapes the narrative for the GBP/USD. How the Pound navigates these challenges will be pivotal in determining its trajectory in the coming sessions. Our preference Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
4
GBP/USD Reacts Bullishly Amidst Retracement and Central Bank...GBP/USD Reacts Bullishly Amidst Retracement and Central Bank Caution In line with our previous forecast, GBP/USD has undergone a retracement, finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level within a range area. However, the market remains cautious as investors and traders brace for upcoming interest rate decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. Both central banks are expected to maintain their current monetary policies, but the focus will be on their guidance for interest rates throughout 2024. Market Dynamics: Despite the cautious sentiment, the GBP/USD pair displayed a robust response in the EU session, showcasing a strong bullish impulse. This morning's market activity suggests that traders are actively positioning themselves ahead of the central bank decisions. BoE's Stance: BoE policymakers are anticipated to abstain from discussions about rate cuts, given that the United Kingdom economy is grappling with significantly higher inflationary pressures compared to the United States. This distinction in economic conditions is a crucial factor influencing the central bank's decision-making. Upcoming Data: Before the Fed's interest rate decision, all eyes will be on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for December, scheduled for publication at 13:30 GMT. This data will likely play a pivotal role in shaping expectations and market sentiment leading up to the Fed's decision. Forecast: Despite the cautious backdrop, our forecast for GBP/USD remains bullish, aligning with the morning's strong reaction and the overall technical setup. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, adapting their strategies as market dynamics unfold in response to central bank decisions and economic indicators. Our preference Long positions above 1.2600 with targets at 1.2850
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD Dynamics: Exploring the Impact of BoE's CPI ResistanceGBP/USD Dynamics: Exploring the Impact of BoE's CPI Resistance The Pound Sterling (GBP) swiftly rebounds, fueled by persistent UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, postponing expectations of early Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Anticipated upside for the GBP/USD pair intensifies as investors speculate on potential early interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). From a technical standpoint, our steadfast analysis suggests a GBP uptrend with an initial target set at 1.27500. BoE policymakers remain vigilant amid a vulnerable UK economic outlook and stubborn price pressures. Future movements of the Pound Sterling hinge on the upcoming Retail Sales data for December, poised to be unveiled on Friday. Favorable consumer spending figures would further dispel notions of an imminent BoE rate cut. Our preference Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension Our Previous Idea / entry :
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Navigating Swings and Shifting Fortunes Amidst Labor...GBP/USD: Navigating Swings and Shifting Fortunes Amidst Labor Market Focus GBP/USD embarked on a journey of bullish momentum, reaching heights of 1.2730 during the European session on Thursday. However, the narrative took an intriguing turn in the latter half of the day, with the pair closing virtually unchanged below the psychological threshold of 1.2700. As of the time of this analysis, the current trading level stands at 1.2667. This analysis explores the potential for a swing approach in the wake of recent market dynamics. Technical Perspective: The recent rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci area positions the price for a potential swing approach, signaling the formation of a new bullish impulse. This occurs against the backdrop of a bearish opening session on Friday, adding an element of unpredictability to the ongoing price action. Upcoming Jobs Report: The focus now shifts to the eagerly anticipated release of the December jobs report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections suggest that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are poised to rise by 168,000, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to inch up to 3.8% from November's 3.7%. The outcome of this report holds significant implications for GBP/USD. Potential Scenarios: In the event of an NFP increase surpassing 200,000, investors may recalibrate March rate-cut expectations, bolstering the US Dollar (USD) and exerting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, an NFP reading closer to 100,000 could reinforce the notion of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot, triggering a decline in US yields. In this scenario, GBP/USD could gain traction, aligning itself with the upward trajectory observed in US stocks. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD: Navigating Dollar Strength and Technical SignalsGBP/USD at Crossroads: Navigating Dollar Strength and Technical Signals Under the weight of a resurgent US Dollar (USD), GBP/USD faced downward pressure, descending to its lowest level since mid-December around 1.2610 on Tuesday. While a recovery towards 1.2650 unfolded early Wednesday, the technical landscape hints at the persistence of a bearish bias. Higher Timeframe Dynamics: Zooming into a higher timeframe, our H8 chart reveals a more nuanced perspective. The pair finds itself within a bullish channel, marked by a confluence of indicators. Notably, the 61.8% Fibonacci area, the 78.6% level, the dynamic Support trendline, and the 100 Moving Average collectively act as formidable support. This alignment suggests the potential for a fresh bullish impulse, particularly following the preceding pushdown. Adding another layer to the analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within oversold territory. This technical signal further strengthens the case for a potential pullback, aligning with the broader perspective of a bullish continuation. Economic Data Outlook: On the economic front, focus shifts to key data releases. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to show a slight improvement, ticking up to 47.1 in December from 46.7 in November. Simultaneously, JOLTS Job Openings for November are expected to inch higher to 8.85 million from 8.73 million in October. Positive outcomes in these figures could reinvigorate the USD, while mixed data may keep markets on edge, awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes. Conclusion: As GBP/USD grapples with Dollar strength and technical intricacies, traders find themselves at a crossroads. While the recent downturn is evident, the higher timeframe dynamics suggest a potential reversal. The interplay between technical signals, oversold conditions, and economic data releases sets the stage for a dynamic trading environment. As the market awaits key indicators and Fed minutes, investors remain poised for strategic moves in this ever-evolving currency landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Eyes 1.2800 Amid Dollar Weakness and UK Retail Sales..GBP/USD Eyes 1.2800 Amid Dollar Weakness and UK Retail Sales Surpass Expectations In the European morning on Friday, GBP/USD is on a positive trajectory, setting its sights on the 1.2800 level. The US Dollar (USD) is consolidating its recent losses as the year comes to a close, with divergent Fed-BoE policy outlooks playing a pivotal role. As thin trading conditions are expected to persist, GBP/USD benefits from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the Greenback in the latter part of Thursday's trading. Divergent Policy Outlooks and Dollar Weakness: The USD's losing streak is propelled by the contrasting policy outlooks of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). As the Fed leans towards a more accommodative stance, the British Pound gains traction against the weakening US Dollar. Thin trading conditions, typical of the year-end, further contribute to the USD's consolidation and GBP/USD's upward momentum. UK Retail Sales Beat Expectations: Adding to the positive sentiment around the British Pound, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a robust 1.3% monthly increase in retail sales for November. This figure surpassed market expectations of a 0.4% rise by a significant margin. However, the ONS tempered the optimism by revising the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q3 lower to 0.3% from the initial estimate of 0.6%. Technical Analysis and Uptrend Continuation: Amid these developments, our technical analysis suggests a continuation of the uptrend for GBP/USD. A pullback to the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels serves as a potential entry point, with a projected take-profit zone around 1.28500. As GBP/USD advances towards 1.2800, fueled by a weakening US Dollar and robust UK retail sales, traders and investors are cautiously optimistic. The divergence in central bank policies and positive economic data create a favorable environment for the British Pound. As the year concludes, attention remains on potential opportunities in the currency markets, with GBP/USD exhibiting resilience in the face of year-end trading conditions. Our preference Long positions above 1.2600 with targets at 1.2850 & 1.2900 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Extends Recovery on Upbeat UK Retail SalesGBP/USD Extends Recovery on Upbeat UK Retail Sales, Targets Set for Further Bullish Momentum The GBP/USD pair continues its recovery on Friday, propelled by the positive impact of robust UK Retail Sales data for November. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported surprising resilience in households' retail spending, defying expectations of a sharp decline. The upbeat sales figures were driven by a notable 2.8% surge in non-food retail stores, buoyed by significant discounts during the Black Friday Sale. Technical Analysis and Forecast: As forecasted in our previous analysis, the GBP/USD price remains firmly within a bullish uptrend. This week, the price experienced a rebound precisely within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels area, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The current outlook suggests the potential for a new swing in bullish momentum, targeting 1.27930 as the initial upside objective. Impact on Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy: The robust Retail Sales data for November is likely to affirm the Bank of England's (BoE) commitment to its restrictive monetary policy stance. The growth rate in wages continues to outpace the necessary threshold to bring down inflation to the 2% target. Strong consumer spending, supported by higher wages, challenges the narrative of a clear downtrend in price pressures. Market Sentiment and Future Considerations: The positive momentum in GBP/USD reflects not only domestic economic resilience but also the impact of attractive discounts during the Black Friday Sale. Traders are advised to monitor further economic releases and central bank communications for potential shifts in market sentiment. The GBP/USD pair's trajectory remains bullish, with attention on achieving and sustaining the forecasted target of 1.27930. As market dynamics evolve, the GBP/USD pair's resilience and positive sentiment offer traders an optimistic outlook for further gains. Stay attuned to economic indicators and central bank developments for potential influences on the pair's future movements. Our preference Long positions above 1.25500 with targets at 1.27930 & 1.28500 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Eyes Bullish Momentum on BoE's Hawkish StanceGBP/USD Eyes Bullish Momentum on BoE's Hawkish Stance The GBP/USD pair maintains its positive momentum during the early European session on Monday, propelled by the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance. The central bank's commitment to a prolonged restrictive policy to bring inflation down is supporting the uptick in the pair. Currently trading near 1.26650, the GBP/USD pair is situated around the critical 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This area is being closely watched for a potential swing continuation, and the price could find support around 1.26500, paving the way for a fresh bullish impulse. However, the pair faces challenges from the possibility of a bearish action in Wall Street and additional hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve. These factors could contribute to USD resilience, limiting the GBP/USD's upward push. Market participants will keep a keen eye on the upcoming release of the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, scheduled for Wednesday. This economic indicator could play a crucial role in determining the pair's trajectory in the days to come. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.27930 & 1.28500 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Soars as Powell's Dovish Tone Sparks Bullish MomentumGBP/USD Soars as Powell's Dovish Tone Sparks Bullish Momentum In a surprising turn of events, the GBP/USD experienced a robust bullish rally on Thursday, surging above the 1.2600 level and reaching 1.2660. This surge followed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, coupled with Chairman Jerome Powell's unexpectedly dovish statements during the post-meeting press conference. While the decision to maintain the interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% was largely anticipated, the real market-moving revelation came from the revised dot plot. The dot plot hinted at a potential 75 basis points rate reduction in 2024, signaling the Fed's cautious approach to avoid prolonged periods of high interest rates. Powell's emphasis on this strategy triggered a rally in equity markets and a sharp decline in both the US Dollar Index and Treasury bond yields. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD exhibited resilience and a strong bullish rebound, finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The breakthrough key resistance levels suggests the potential for a bullish continuation. Traders are now closely monitoring for further upside, expecting the GBP/USD to sustain its growth momentum amid the evolving dynamics in the US monetary policy landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.2735 & 1.2850 in extension.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Inflation Data Triggers Volatility Amidst BoE and Fed..GBP/USD: Inflation Data Triggers Volatility Amidst BoE and Fed Meetings As anticipated in our previous analysis, GBP/USD experienced a shift in momentum following Tuesday's CPI report, climbing to around 1.2600 before reversing course and dipping below 1.2515. The upcoming US inflation data for November is poised to be the catalyst for the next significant market move, setting the stage for key policy meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). UK Annual Wage Inflation Decline: The UK witnessed a notable decline in annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Earnings Including Bonus, which dropped sharply to 7.2% in the three months to October from the previous 8%. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus followed suit, registering a decrease from 7.8% to 7.3% in the same period. Potential Impact on BoE Policy: While the BoE is expected to maintain its current policy stance this week, the soft wage inflation readings could be viewed favorably by policymakers. The concerns over robust pay growth hindering efforts to bring inflation back down to the 2% target may find some relief in these figures. The central bank's response to evolving economic indicators will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Technical Analysis and Bearish Setup: Our analysis maintains an unchanged bearish setup for GBP/USD, with anticipated targets at 1.2500 and 1.2480 in extension. The softening wage inflation data and potential implications for BoE policy contribute to the prevailing bearish sentiment. Conclusion: As GBP/USD navigates through volatile market conditions, the upcoming US inflation data will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the currency pair's trajectory. With the BoE policy meeting on the horizon, the impact of wage inflation on central bank decisions adds an extra layer of complexity to the market dynamics. Traders and investors should remain vigilant as they assess the evolving economic landscape and adjust their strategies accordingly. Our preference Short positions below 1.2585 with targets at 1.2500 & 1.2480 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Dynamics: Navigating Economic Indicators and Central ...GBP/USD Dynamics: Navigating Economic Indicators and Central Bank Uncertainties The GBP/USD pair has found modest support for the second consecutive day, buoyed by a softer USD and a positive risk sentiment in the markets. Despite the initial boost, the pair remains below the overnight swing high, with spot prices holding steady in the 1.2580-1.2585 region at the time of writing. This article delves into the factors influencing the current GBP/USD scenario, shedding light on the UK jobs data, the US Dollar's trajectory, and the looming impact of central bank decisions. GBP/USD Price Movement: As of the latest update, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2571, situated within a defined range area. The potential for a shift in the lower direction towards the 1.2500 level hinges on the outcome of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release today. Traders are keenly observing this event, as a favorable report for the US could revert the price towards the lower end of the range. UK Jobs Data and BoE Influence: The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a rise in unemployment-related benefits by 16K in November, slightly below the anticipated 20.3K. Notably, the previous month's reading was revised downward from 17.8K to 8.9K. However, the positive sentiment was dampened by a deceleration in Average Earnings during the three months to October, fueling speculation that the Bank of England's rate-hiking cycle might face headwinds in 2024. USD Movement and Market Sentiment: Conversely, the US Dollar experiences downward pressure, attributed to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from interest rate hikes. The Greenback's status as a safe-haven currency is further challenged by a positive tone in equity markets, prompting some repositioning trades ahead of the imminent release of the US consumer inflation figures. Central Bank Events on the Horizon: The GBP/USD pair's trajectory is poised for potential shifts as the market anticipates key central bank events. The Federal Reserve's policy decision, set to be announced after a two-day meeting on Wednesday, and the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday will likely exert considerable influence on the GBP's performance. As traders await these crucial events, caution is advised, given the potential impact on the recent bounce from the psychological 1.2500 mark and the monthly low reached last Friday. In the unfolding narrative of the GBP/USD pair, a complex interplay of economic indicators, central bank decisions, and market sentiment takes center stage. As traders navigate this dynamic landscape, the upcoming US CPI report and central bank meetings will undoubtedly steer the course of the currency pair. Caution remains paramount in positioning for potential market shifts, emphasizing the need for flexibility and responsiveness in the face of unfolding events. Our preference Short positions below 1.2620 with targets at 1.2500 & 1.2480 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/USD Faces Downside Pressure Amid Dollar DemandGBP/USD Faces Downside Pressure Amid Dollar Demand In the early European session on Wednesday, GBP/USD finds itself trading under pressure below the 1.2560 level. The renewed demand for the US Dollar is a significant factor contributing to the pair's weakness. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders await key US economic data and the UK Autumn Forecast. Despite hawkish commentary from the Bank of England (BoE), the Pound Sterling is struggling to gain traction. As anticipated in the previous forecast, the price reacted under the 1.26000 level. The H1 timeframe chart reveals a divergence in the RSI, signaling potential downside. Furthermore, the analysis considers the value gap from the previous week's economic news, suggesting indications for a deeper retracement. The correlation with the EUR/USD aligns with a bearish scenario in the near term. Simultaneously, the UK's FTSE 100 Index opened lower, showing a 0.5% loss. US stock index futures mirrored this trend, turning negative after a quiet Asian session. The possibility of safe-haven flows returning to the market in the second half of the day may prompt the US Dollar to shake off bearish pressure, limiting GBP/USD's upside potential. Traders will closely monitor developments in the coming hours for clearer market direction. Below 1.2600 look for further downside with 1.24500 & 1.23700 as targets. Yesterday Idea :
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Continues to Soar: Can the Bullish Run Persist?GBP/USD Continues to Soar: Can the Bullish Run Persist? The GBP/USD pair is on an impressive streak, notching its sixth consecutive day of gains and reaching a nearly three-week high during the Asian trading session. With the spot prices hovering just below the key 1.2300 round-figure mark, it's evident that the US Dollar (USD) is feeling the heat, facing a persistent bearish trend. The recent series of dovish comments from various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials has prompted investors to dial down their expectations of aggressive monetary tightening by the US central bank. This trend has exerted downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields, eroding the strength of the Greenback. In particular, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized that further interest rate hikes are unnecessary and that there's no impending recession. Moreover, the prevailing risk-on sentiment has added to the USD's woes while bolstering the GBP/USD pair. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the decreasing likelihood of more rate hikes by the Fed has encouraged investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets. This has fostered a positive market tone, evidenced by gains in the equity markets, thereby diverting investments away from traditional safe-haven currencies, including the US Dollar. Nonetheless, it's important to note that the markets are still pricing in the possibility of at least one more Fed rate hike before year-end. This factor tempers the enthusiasm for aggressive bearish USD positions. Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep rates unchanged in November might act as a ceiling on the GBP/USD pair. The BoE unexpectedly paused its rate-hiking cycle in September and provided little indication of its future rate intentions. As the GBP/USD pair extends its recent recovery from the 1.2035 region, which marked its lowest point since March, traders are advised to await strong follow-through buying before considering an extension of the bullish run. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the FOMC meeting minutes, which are expected to provide substantial market-moving insights during the North American session. Attention will then shift to Thursday's unveiling of the latest US consumer inflation data, which could offer further clarity on the currency pair's future trajectory. Short-Term Setup - Our preference: Short positions below 1.23400 with targets at 1.22250 & 1.21800 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
17
GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic..GBP/USD Faces Pressure Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict and Economic Challenges The Pound Sterling (GBP) experienced a downturn, dropping below 1.22 against the US Dollar (USD) as geopolitical tensions escalated due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. This development has contributed to a risk-averse market sentiment, impacting the GBP's performance. Additionally, the UK faces economic challenges, particularly in its manufacturing and construction sectors, as higher mortgage rates create uncertainty. Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on GBP: The GBP/USD pair saw a significant decline on Monday as the Israel-Hamas conflict heightened the risk-aversion theme in the market. This geopolitical tension, which began over the weekend, added pressure to the Pound Sterling. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as it unfolds, as it has implications for market sentiment and risk appetite. UK Economic Challenges Persist: Apart from the geopolitical concerns, the UK is grappling with economic challenges. The manufacturing and construction sectors are currently vulnerable due to higher mortgage rates, which have impacted demand and borrowing costs. As a result, UK businesses are cautious about raising funds, leading to reduced labor demand and overall economic output. The situation is expected to persist, with the Bank of England (BoE) committed to maintaining restrictive interest rates until inflation reaches its target of 2%. US Jobs Data and Fed Expectations: In contrast to the UK, the United States is experiencing a more robust economic outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, revealed the addition of 336,000 jobs in September, surpassing market estimates. This data reaffirms expectations for at least one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the year-end. The prospect of higher interest rates has boosted US Treasury bond yields, providing support to the USD. However, it's worth noting that wage growth remained moderate during the same month, alleviating some concerns about inflationary pressures. This development may allow the Fed to adopt a less hawkish stance, depending on upcoming economic data and events. Looking Ahead: Investors are closely monitoring key events this week, including the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and US consumer inflation figures. These releases will provide insights into the Fed's future policy decisions and influence the USD's trajectory, subsequently impacting the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its current interest rates in November are likely to limit significant upside potential for the British Pound (GBP). As geopolitical tensions persist and economic challenges persist in the UK, the GBP/USD pair remains under scrutiny by traders and investors. Our preference Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.21100 & 1.2005 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
GBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP ReportGBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP Report The GBP/USD pair is currently treading water in the Asian session, consolidating its recent robust recovery from the 1.2035 area, which marked its lowest level since March 16 earlier this week. With traders on the sidelines, the focus is firmly on the impending release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a pivotal event that could significantly influence market sentiment and currency movements. NFP's Influence on Market Expectations The NFP report, widely watched by investors, carries significant weight in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate decisions. The outcome of this report is expected to impact the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh direction to the GBP/USD pair. Forecasts suggest that the US economy likely added 170,000 jobs in September, a modest decline from the 187,000 reported in August. Simultaneously, the jobless rate is expected to dip from 3.8% to 3.7% for the reported month. A Stronger NFP Report's Implications A stronger NFP report, while indicating healthy job growth, may exert upward pressure on wages and inflation. This scenario could compel the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for an extended period. Such an outcome could provide renewed strength to the USD and potentially cap the GBP/USD pair's gains. Mixed Labor Market Data As traders brace for the NFP release, it has been a week marked by mixed labor market data. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August showed higher-than-expected job openings, while private payroll numbers from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report fell short of market expectations. Additionally, Thursday's data revealed a slight increase in Weekly Jobless Claims compared to the previous week, albeit slightly below expectations. Overall, these figures align with expectations of robust economic growth in the US for the third quarter. Furthermore, several Fed officials have voiced support for at least one more 25 basis points rate hike by year-end. Divergent Fed-BoE Policy Expectations The prospects of further policy tightening by the Fed have kept US Treasury bond yields elevated and supported the USD. This has contributed to halting the corrective pullback in the USD this week, despite its strong performance year-to-date. In contrast, market expectations are leaning towards the Bank of England (BoE) leaving interest rates unchanged at its upcoming November meeting. This divergence in central bank policies further acts as a restraint on the GBP/USD pair's upside potential. Waiting for Confirmation Given the prevailing market dynamics and uncertainties, traders are exercising caution and waiting for strong follow-through buying before confirming that GBP/USD has established a near-term bottom. Such confirmation would set the stage for a potential extension of the recent robust recovery that has spanned the last two trading days. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its recent gains as traders await the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This release carries substantial implications for both the USD and GBP, with the potential to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions. While the current market outlook is cautiously optimistic, the NFP's outcome will likely determine the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair. Our preference Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.2110 & 1.2005 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
21