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GBP/USD: Market Sentiment and the Road Ahead for the PoundFollowing up on our previous analysis of GBP/USD, it has been a tumultuous week for the Pound, which experienced significant declines on Wednesday and Thursday. Although GBP/USD managed a brief correction higher on Friday, it ultimately closed the week in negative territory. At the time of writing, the pair is in a consolidation phase, trading below the 1.2545 mark. The sharp drop in GBP/USD can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish dot plot, coupled with the Bank of England's relatively dovish stance after its final policy meeting of the year. This combination led to a notable downturn in the currency pair. However, as we approached the weekend, a more positive shift in market sentiment emerged due to the US Congress successfully averting a government shutdown, which caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken against its peers. This turn of events allowed GBP/USD to recover some of its earlier losses. From a technical analysis perspective, we are anticipating continued bearish momentum for the Pound against the USD as we approach the next demand zone. Previous Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD at a Critical Support Level: What comes next?The GBP/USD pair has fallen more than 7% since September 26, 2024, largely in response to the strengthening of the USD following Donald Trump's recent victory in the US presidential election. However, it appears that GBP/USD has found significant support on the daily chart, forming a double bottom pattern in the 1.2500 region. This level has been an important reference point throughout 2023 and is poised to act as support once again. Confluence of Factors Several elements suggest a potential upward movement in GBP/USD: 7% Decline Without Significant Retracement: The pair has seen a substantial decline since September without any meaningful pullbacks. Key Support Region: The price has touched an important support level on the daily chart. Double Bottom Formation: The emergence of a double bottom pattern on the daily chart adds further support to the bullish hypothesis. Considering these points, a long setup could be contemplated if the candle on the daily chart for December 23 closes above the high of the preceding candle. This would create a bullish Engulfing Pattern, which is often viewed as an ignition signal and a buying opportunity. Potential Targets for a Long Trade 1.2800: This target is a previous resistance point that previously hindered further price increases. It also represents a round number, offering approximately 180 pips from the entry point. 1.3000: Another significant resistance level and round number, approximately 380 pips from the entry point. Stop Loss A suitable stop loss could be placed slightly below support on the daily chart at around 1.2470, providing a distance of approximately 150 pips from the entry point. Alternative Scenario Should GBP/USD break below the support level on the daily chart, the next downward movement could see it fall to the 1.2330 level, where it may find another area of support. Impact of Economic Data: UK GDP and US Consumer Confidence The upcoming release of UK GDP data should be closely monitored, as it is a critical indicator of the health of the UK economy. If the reading comes in lower than expected, the market may speculate that the Bank of England (BoE) could be forced to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, potentially leading to a depreciation of the Pound. Meanwhile, US Consumer Confidence data is likely to affect market volatility as household consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP. A reading that exceeds expectations could indicate strong consumer confidence in the economic outlook, which might lead to inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider raising interest rates, thereby strengthening the USD. As the GBP/USD pair approaches a crucial support level, the technical indicators suggest a potential for upward movement. However, traders should remain vigilant of the upcoming economic data releases and consider how they might influence market dynamics. Combining technical analysis with fundamental insights will enhance the likelihood of making well-informed trading decisions during this pivotal moment. Disclaimer 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
GBPAUD - Employment in Australia is at good levels!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continuing to move in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to rise to the supply zone. Within the supply zone can look for GBPAUD sell positions. 1. Renewable Energy in the UK: British ministers are preparing for the largest renewable energy subsidy auction in the country’s history to achieve the challenging goal of generating clean electricity by 2030. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, is set to launch the “2030 Clean Electricity Action Plan” today, aiming to decarbonize the power system by the end of the decade. A recent auction secured funding for 131 clean energy projects, guaranteeing 9.6 gigawatts of energy capacity, enough to power 11 million homes. Government officials plan to hold the largest auction to date by 2025 to meet the 2030 target of at least 95% low-carbon electricity. 2. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: According to a Reuters survey, most economists believe that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have minimal impact on the UK economy. The survey revealed that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025, with reductions probably occurring quarterly at 25 basis points each. Additionally, all 71 economists surveyed predicted that the central bank would hold the interest rate steady at 4.75% during its December 19 meeting. 3. Challenges in AI Oversight: The UK is facing challenges in its efforts to expand global oversight of artificial intelligence. The country aims to strengthen its “Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute” (AISI) and solidify its position as a leading institution in researching AI risks. However, plans to open a new office in San Francisco have been delayed due to elections in the US and the UK, as well as hiring challenges. 4. London’s IPO Market Decline: The London Stock Exchange, once a leading and prestigious center for initial public offerings (IPOs), has now fallen to 20th place among global markets, recording none of the top 100 IPOs in 2024. Markets like Oman, Malaysia, and Luxembourg have outperformed London in attracting IPO capital. The outflow of companies from the London Stock Exchange has also risen, exacerbated by 41 consecutive months of capital outflow from UK equity funds, increasing pressure on market brokers to merge or sell. 5. Australia’s Unemployment Rate: Australia’s unemployment rate in November dropped to its lowest level in eight months, while employment continued its strong growth trend. This surprising strength led markets to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut in February, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unexpected dovish shift that hinted at potential monetary easing. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% in October to 3.9% in November, the lowest since March. Analysts had expected unemployment to rise to 4.2%. The participation rate declined from 67.1% to 67.0%. Net employment in November increased by 35,600 compared to a revised figure of 12,200 in October, exceeding market expectations of a 25,000-job gain, driven largely by full-time employment growth.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel. If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone. According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month. Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%. The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year. Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly. The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks. Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts. Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions. In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines. In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050. On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption. The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
EURGBP - Interest rates will stay high for a long time!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the ceiling of the channel, we can see a supply zone and resell within that zone with a reward for the appropriate risk. The breaking of the drawn upward trend line will provide us with the path for the downtrend of this currency pair to the support range. According to expert analysis, President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico to the United States could have a greater negative impact on European automakers like Volkswagen and Stellantis, as well as their suppliers, than any direct tariffs on European Union goods. Should these tariffs be implemented, significant questions would arise regarding the future of global automakers’ operations in Mexico, particularly European manufacturers. Many companies have established factories in Mexico to take advantage of cheaper labor and proximity to the lucrative U.S. market. In response, some automakers may choose to relocate their production facilities to the U.S., abandoning their operations in Mexico. Bernstein analysts stated in a report to clients that Trump’s tariff threats, if enacted shortly after his inauguration in January, leave little time for automakers and suppliers to adjust to major supply chain disruptions. They wrote: “The consequences of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for U.S. manufacturers are so significant that they do not appear to be merely a bargaining tool.” Similarly, Stifel analysts noted that around 65% of the vehicles Volkswagen sells in the U.S. would lose their competitive edge if tariffs on imports from Mexico were applied. Volkswagen’s largest car plant in Mexico, located in Puebla, produced approximately 350,000 vehicles in 2023, including Jetta, Tiguan, and Taos models, all destined for the U.S. market. While automakers and suppliers are exploring various scenarios, predicting future developments remains challenging due to the uncertainty surrounding final decisions. Nick Klein, vice president of Chicago-based OEC, remarked: “Based on past experience, Trump is likely to use the tariff threat as leverage, but predicting his exact actions is difficult.” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, has suggested that the European Union should engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding potential tariffs rather than immediately implementing retaliatory measures. Lagarde reiterated previous warnings about the adverse effects of a full-scale trade war, proposing that the EU could offer to purchase certain U.S. goods as a gesture of willingness to negotiate. She also stated that it is still too early to assess the impact of these tariffs, but if implemented, they might cause short-term inflationary effects. Nagel, a member of the ECB, warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could increase inflation in the Eurozone, presenting a significant risk. He pointed out that if wage growth slows, upward pressure on prices in the services sector would diminish. He also highlighted that Germany’s economy faces challenges that could lead to a recession in the final quarter of the year, with its economic performance lagging behind the Eurozone average. Philip Lane, ECB Chief Economist, emphasized that restrictive monetary policies should not be maintained for an extended period. In an interview with Les Echos, he advocated for a gradual reduction in interest rates, noting that the rapid rate hikes have curtailed housing investment and encouraged saving over spending. Lane predicted that most inflation targets will be achieved by next year unless new political or geopolitical risks arise. He stressed that monetary policy should not remain excessively restrictive and that further adjustments are needed to achieve stable inflation. Lane also forecasted a rise in consumption during 2025-2026 and called for monetary policy to address both downside and upside risks. Meanwhile, a UBS note revealed that despite stronger-than-expected inflation data in the UK and the Bank of England’s recent rate cut, market sentiment toward the British pound remains bearish. The inflation figures align with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s cautious stance, consistent with his recent call for a gradual approach to rate cuts. The BOE’s reduction of the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7 fits within this broader strategy.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD: Analysis , Can the Pound Find Support at 1.2400?The Pound Sterling is experiencing a sustained bearish trend, remaining under significant pressure following President-elect Donald Trump's recent announcement of a proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside a 10% increase on all imports from China to the United States. These developments are likely to strengthen the U.S. Dollar further, potentially driving the Pound and other currencies into another bearish phase against the Dollar. As the market digests these tariff implications, investors are wary of the potential economic repercussions, especially as they pertain to trade relationships. The insistence on higher tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from affected countries, creating uncertainty that weighs heavily on the Pound. Looking ahead, analysts are closely watching the 1.2400 mark, which is recognized as a potential demand zone for the Pound. If the currency falls to this level, it may attract buying interest from traders looking to capitalize on a rebound. However, the overall sentiment appears to favor further bearish movement unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape or policy shifts. In this volatile environment, market participants are advised to remain vigilant, as the unfolding situation may present both risks and opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD - The pound, vulnerable to financial policies?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The UK government has quietly abandoned the Conservatives’ plan for managing pension accounts. This plan, introduced by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, aimed to address the issue of small, lost pension accounts. However, it faced widespread criticism from the savings industry. Instead, the new government has decided to focus on launching a pension dashboard to help individuals track their missing savings. Additionally, Rachel Reeves, Hunt’s successor, has announced plans for “megafunds” to consolidate the fragmented state of the current pension system. In October, the UK’s public sector net borrowing rose to £17.4 billion, significantly exceeding the £12.9 billion forecast and the previous figure of £16.6 billion. Excluding banking groups, the figure also stood at £17.4 billion, surpassing the earlier estimate of £13.3 billion. This increase in borrowing highlights the government’s growing need for financial resources and could impact future fiscal policies. Natural gas prices in the UK have reached their highest levels compared to European benchmarks since late 2021. This reflects the country’s heightened vulnerability to cold weather due to a lack of large storage sites. While futures contracts have shown little movement, they remain near last year’s peak levels. Additionally, natural gas prices have risen by over 15% so far in November, further emphasizing the fragility of the UK’s gas market. Mann, a member of the Bank of England, has expressed concerns about exchange rate volatility.She described a 1% rate cut as overly aggressive and suggested that decisions on reducing interest rates should be postponed until economic conditions stabilize. She emphasized that significant monetary changes should only occur based on robust data and evidence. Meanwhile, at TD Securities, a team of strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg expects the Federal Reserve to halt rate cuts in the first half of 2025, as central bank policymakers assess the impact of Trump’s policies. Similarly, interest rate strategists at JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for the Fed. Broadly speaking, potential conflicts between the Federal Reserve and Trump’s White House seem highly likely, given that Trump’s policies could clash with monetary policies focused on curbing growth and reducing inflation.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBPNZD - Will the pound continue to rise?!The GBPNZD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy this currency pair in that range with the appropriate risk reward. Breaking the ceiling of the descending channel will provide the way for this currency pair to rise to the specified resistance range. Barclays Institute Remains Optimistic About the British Pound’s Growth Until 2025 Key highlights of the analysis are as follows: • Strengthening ties between the UK and the European Union are expected to provide long-term support for the British economy and pound, boosting its positive outlook. • The financial packages announced by the UK government, amounting to approximately 1% of GDP, have stimulated domestic demand and delayed the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate cut cycle. • A critical uncertainty lies in whether higher labor costs will lead to inflationary pressures or a reduction in employment, both of which could impact supply. • The UK’s trade deficit in goods with the United States indicates that, compared to the Eurozone, Britain is less exposed to the direct risks of potential US tariffs. This creates a favorable distinction for the pound over the euro. Barclays predicts that the pound will maintain a positive trajectory through 2025, supported by fiscal resilience, limited exposure to tariff risks, and structural improvements in UK-EU relations. These factors position the pound for gains against both the dollar and the euro, though uncertainties related to labor costs remain a critical factor to monitor. Remarks by Ramsden: Ramsden, a member of the Bank of England, noted that wage growth is more likely to align closer to 2% rather than 4%. He highlighted that the economy is on track to return to normalcy, with inflation stabilizing at a low level and expected to continue this trend. In the short term, inflation is anticipated to remain near the target, while in the long term, it could fall significantly below it. However, the impact of higher social insurance taxes on key economic indicators like prices, wages, and unemployment remains unclear. New Zealand’s Economic Outlook: Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Treasury has forecast a deeper economic downturn, which is placing greater pressure on tax revenues. According to Dominic Stephens, the Treasury’s chief economic advisor, the economic contraction has been sharper than expected, posing serious challenges for the government’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit. Recent evidence suggests that economic and fiscal forecasts, set to be released on December 17, will likely be further downgraded. Data indicates that New Zealand consumers are spending less than they did last year, and businesses remain pessimistic about their economic prospects.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD: Pound Soars Following Surprising CPI ReportOn Wednesday, the Pound Sterling (GBP) saw a significant surge against most currencies following the release of unexpected inflation data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that annual inflation rose to 2.3% in October, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 2.2% and a notable increase from September's 1.7%. Month-over-month, the headline inflation climbed by 0.6%, outpacing the anticipated 0.5% and recovering from a stagnant September. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes fluctuating components such as food, energy, and tobacco, registered a growth of 3.3%. This figure exceeds the previous month's reading of 3.2% and defies economists' predictions of a decline to 3.1%. Services inflation—a key metric monitored by Bank of England (BoE) policymakers—also picked up, rising to 5% from the earlier figure of 4.9%. This uptick in price pressures may prompt traders to rethink their expectations regarding interest rate cuts in the upcoming BoE meeting scheduled for December. From a technical analysis perspective, the price action remains within a bullish demand zone, suggesting a strong likelihood of further appreciation in the value of the Pound. Overall, indications point towards a potential increase in the Pound Sterling's value moving forward. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURGBP - BOE decisions will make the GBP rise!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. In case of an upward correction due to economic data this week, we can see a supply zone and resell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Reaching the demand zone of this currency pair will lead to scalp buying opportunities. The UK energy regulator has approved a £2 billion funding package to build a high-voltage “electricity superhighway” beneath the North Sea. This project, known as the “Eastern Green Link 1,” involves laying 196 kilometers of cable to transfer wind power from Scotland to northern England. The initiative is expected to supply electricity to approximately two million homes. Rachel Reeves, the UK’s finance minister, stated that the government aims to achieve broad and resilient economic growth. She also reaffirmed the Bank of England’s target of maintaining a 2% inflation rate. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, noted that inflation in the services sector remains above levels compatible with the inflation target. He stressed the need for close monitoring of this sector, as it reflects labor market developments. Bailey further mentioned that a gradual approach to easing monetary policy restrictions would help manage inflation-related risks more effectively. Meanwhile, the European Commission has warned of heightened risks in its economic outlook due to the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and protectionist trade policies. The Commission estimates Germany’s GDP growth to rise by 0.7% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 1.0%. Additionally, public debt in the Eurozone is expected to increase from 89.1% in 2024 to 90.0% by 2026. Inflation rates are projected at 2.4% for 2024, 2% for 2025, and 1.9% for 2026. A Bloomberg survey revealed that economists now believe Germany may face a second consecutive year of declining output. Analysts expect Germany’s GDP to shrink by 0.1% in 2024 following a 0.3% contraction in 2023.A month ago, predictions still pointed to an economic slowdown only for this year. Fabio Panetta, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that persistent weakness in domestic demand might drive inflation below 2%. He suggested that the ECB should consider shifting toward a neutral or even expansionary monetary policy. Panetta noted that the Eurozone economy remains weak, with no turning point visible in the manufacturing sector. He emphasized the need for the ECB to adopt a forward-looking approach, as excessive tightening of current monetary policies is no longer necessary. Robert Müller, another ECB official, remarked that there is no need for larger-scale measures at this time. He also hinted at the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Short
by Ali_PSND
2
GBP/USD Soars to 1.2970 as U.S. Employment Data Weighs on DollarIn the early hours of the London session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair has jumped toward the 1.2970 mark, aligning with our previous forecast. The U.S. Dollar (USD) is feeling the pressure from sellers, primarily stemming from disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released for October, which has provided a boost to the major currency pair. Federal Reserve Rate Cut on the Horizon Following a significant 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September, which marked the beginning of the Fed's easing cycle, market expectations are now leaning towards a further reduction of 25 bps at the upcoming November meeting. Traders are pricing in this possibility with approximately a 97% probability, contributing to the Greenback's decline as investors brace for the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the Fed's critical interest rate decision later this week. Technical Analysis: Demand Zone Bounce From a technical standpoint, the recent price movement indicates a rebound from our identified demand zone. The setup suggests potential for further upside as it aligns with the broader market sentiment. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report supports this outlook, showing no significant changes in trader positioning that would alter the prevailing market dynamics. Preparing for Market Volatility As the U.S. elections approach, traders should be prepared for enhanced volatility in the market. The uncertainty surrounding the election outcomes, coupled with anticipated shifts in U.S. monetary policy, could result in considerable fluctuations across various asset classes. The eventual victor of the election could shape expectations for fiscal strategies, regulatory changes, and economic recovery plans, all of which are likely to influence market sentiment and asset performance in the forthcoming weeks. Conclusion The recent movement of the GBP/USD towards 1.2970 highlights the continued impact of economic data and monetary policy expectations on currency pairs. As the market prepares for significant events this week—the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates—traders must remain vigilant. Understanding the interplay between electoral outcomes and monetary policies will be essential for navigating the potential market turmoil that awaits in the days ahead. Previous Forecast ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Recovery Stalls Amid Mixed U.S. Data but....The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains in early Friday trading after closing marginally lower on Thursday. Although there is potential for the pair to extend its recovery, our outlook remains firmly on the bearish side. Recent U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, has added to the complexity of market dynamics, impacting both the British pound and the U.S. dollar as traders assess the implications for future monetary policy. U.S. Inflation and Labor Market Update On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released key inflation data, revealing a slight softening in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Year-over-year, inflation ticked down to 2.4% in September, a small decline from August’s 2.5%. While this offered some relief to inflation hawks, the core CPI—excluding the more volatile food and energy prices—rose by 3.3% on an annual basis, higher than the market's forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.3%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. Adding to the mix, the latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report showed a significant rise to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, up from 225,000 the previous week. This unexpected jump has revived concerns over a potential cooling in the labor market, complicating the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy. While rising jobless claims could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, persistent core inflation suggests that the Fed may hesitate to loosen monetary policy aggressively. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers valuable insights into market positioning. The data shows that retail traders are aggressively long, while "smart money"—institutional investors—remains flat, indicating a lack of commitment to the bullish side. This divergence suggests that the broader market sentiment still leans bearish, even as the GBP/USD attempts to recover. For now, we are holding off on opening any positions, instead waiting for a clearer opportunity to emerge. Our focus is on a possible price drop toward a key demand area, where we plan to evaluate the conditions for a potential long setup. This level would provide a more favorable risk-reward scenario to enter a position aligned with a recovery strategy. Conclusion While the GBP/USD has shown early signs of a potential recovery, the broader outlook remains bearish, with mixed U.S. economic data adding uncertainty to the market's direction. The softening inflation figure offers some hope for a dovish shift in the Fed's policy, but the persistently high core CPI and rising jobless claims complicate the situation. Until clearer signals emerge, our strategy is to wait for a deeper price drop toward a demand area to position ourselves for a potential rebound. In the meantime, traders are advised to remain cautious, as volatile data releases and shifting market sentiment could lead to sudden swings in the GBP/USD pair in the coming sessions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Weakness Continues Amid Expect. of Faster BoE Rate Cuts As anticipated in our previous analysis, the British Pound (GBP) remains under pressure, with the GBP/USD pair showing continued signs of weakness. Market sentiment suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, a view bolstered by recent dovish remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Last week, Bailey hinted that the central bank might adopt a more aggressive stance on cutting rates if inflation continues to show favorable trends. This prospect has increased market bets on rate cuts, which is contributing to the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Market Sentiment: Retailers Hopeful, Smart Money Bearish From a sentiment perspective, retail traders remain hopeful for a possible bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. However, smart money (institutional investors) continues to lean towards a bearish outlook, aligning their positions with the broader market expectation of a weakening Pound in the face of potential rate cuts by the BoE. Technical Outlook: Identified Demand Area Technically, we have recognized a potential demand area where the price may find support. However, the downward trend could extend further, particularly after the release of the FOMC Minutes, which may provide more clarity on the direction of US monetary policy. This could continue to push the GBP/USD pair lower. At this moment, patience is crucial. We are waiting for the price to approach key levels where a potential reversal could occur, but it is essential to wait for confirmation before taking action. Conclusion The British Pound remains under pressure as markets increasingly believe that the Bank of England could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle. Governor Bailey's recent comments have fueled this speculation, leading to increased bearish sentiment in the GBP/USD pair. For now, patience remains key as we wait for the price to reach critical demand areas that may offer a chance for a reversal. Until then, traders should remain cautious and avoid premature entries. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Will GBP Drop Further? Bearish Pressure Mounts Near Key LevelThe British Pound (GBP) continues to face downside pressure near the key level of 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains under strain as the US Dollar holds firm, near a seven-week high, bolstered by strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, released last Friday. This robust US labor market performance has further supported the dollar's strength. In our previous analysis, we closed our positions on this pair (view chart below): GBP/USD Previous Forecast. Bearish Sentiment: Continuation or Reversal? Looking ahead, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain heavily on the bearish side, which adds weight to the possibility of further downside pressure. While there is no immediate position to open, we will be closely monitoring market developments. Given the fundamental outlook, our attention will turn to a potential long position if the price retraces to our identified Demand area. Until then, we remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals for a possible entry point as the market evolves. Conclusion With the US Dollar's recent strength driven by solid economic data, the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near critical levels. While the current sentiment leans bearish, we will keep a close watch on fundamental shifts and technical signals to reassess future trade opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
“The pound gained strength”The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its policy interest rate at 5.00%, with no changes. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that since they lowered the policy rate in August, inflationary pressures have continued to ease. Bailey also emphasized the importance of avoiding rate cuts that are too quick or too large. Following this development, the GBP/USD pair rose above the 1.33 level. From a technical perspective, if the 1.3355 level is permanently surpassed, the rise could accelerate toward 1.3430, followed by the 1.35 resistance level. On the downside, if prices fall below the 1.3270 level, the decline could extend first to 1.3150 and then further to the 1.3030 support level.
by primequotes
Trading Idea: GBP/EUR Resistance BreakoutCurrent Resistance Level: GBP/EUR is currently facing a resistance level. If the price breaks above this resistance, it could signal a potential bullish breakout. Next Target: After the breakout, the next key resistance level becomes the target. Bullish Pattern: There is also a potential bullish pattern forming, which could further support the breakout scenario. A confirmed breakout above the first resistance could lead the price to rally toward the second resistance level. Confirmation: Wait for a clear break and close above the current resistance, and a confirmation of the bullish pattern, to strengthen the breakout signal. Risk Management: Consider placing a stop-loss below the previous support level to manage risk in case of a false breakout.
Long
by WaveRiders2
GBP/USD Struggles as Dollar Strengthens Following Economic DataThe Pound Sterling has continued to underperform against the US Dollar, following a series of key economic events. Initially, on Friday, the USD experienced a brief weakening after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which pointed to weaker-than-expected economic signals. U.S. employment growth for August came in below forecasts, casting doubt on the overall health of the labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its strength, in line with last week’s price action, after market participants absorbed these figures and focused on other economic data points. Our previous forecast for GBP/USD, as outlined last week, highlighted a key supply area that would likely serve as a turning point for the pair, and indeed this has played out. The price action during the London session shows continued weakness in the British pound, confirming a bearish continuation as the USD maintains its momentum. The GBP remains under pressure as the pair seems unable to sustain any recovery attempts, particularly as the USD continues to recover its losses from earlier in the month. Previous Analysis: Looking ahead, tomorrow’s U.S. economic releases, including Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, will be crucial in determining whether the dollar can extend its bullish momentum. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. pre-election debate could add further volatility to the market, making this a key event for traders to watch. In conclusion, GBP/USD remains on a bearish trajectory, and further downside pressure could emerge if the upcoming U.S. data continues to support the case for dollar strength. Traders should stay alert to these key data points as they will likely set the tone for the pair’s movement in the coming days.
Short
by FOREXN1
1