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PMI

Daytrading EURUSD the day after ISM Non-Manufacturing PMII made a backtest EURUSD and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) finding a good opportunity going long the day after if Actual PMI is greater than Previous PMI. This is not a standalone strategy but a good piece of a puzzle before deciding to open my trade. This trade has closed this evening with 100 pips profit. my puzzle had today a lot of intersting pieces: 1. Advantage from the last ISM release matching with my backtest 2. USDOLLAR reached the fibonacci's extension 3. Chart 6E1!/DX1! close to a support 3. 30min chart. I setted my entry price after rebouncing twice from a double strong support (red lines = weekly and montly highs/lows) 4. Good bullish wedge pattern on EURUSD (1Day chart) 5. Expectation for rising interest rate tomorrow by ECB. I like trading with a so lot of opportunities
Long
by giancarlopagliaroli
China's Economy Crisis: What You Need To Know‍China is the world’s second-largest economy. If that doesn’t impress you, consider this: It has grown from a ragtag collection of state-owned firms to the world’s second-largest economy in just 35 years. China is now the world’s largest producer of goods, from smartphones to steel, autos to aircraft carriers. In 2017 alone, China produced almost as much output as the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and Britain combined. However, there are signs that China is heading for a recession. The country’s stock market has crashed twice (in July 2015 and again in January 2016), and Chinese investors have lost a lot of money as a result. There are many reasons that explain why an impending economic crash in China is imminent... China Has a Debt Problem China’s debt-to-GDP ratio (Private Sector) is now over 250%, which is extremely alarming. China’s debt problem is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any moment. As interest rates rise in the U.S., the cost of servicing the debt will become more expensive for Chinese issuers. If China continues to grow its debt at its current pace, it could easily become the next Greece or Argentina, where economic collapse is imminent. The Chinese government has tried to curb the rise in debt by tightening its domestic monetary policy. That caused the country’s stock market to plummet and its currency to depreciate. China’s aggressive money-printing has helped to fuel an emerging debt crisis that could trigger a global economic slowdown. In fact, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped from 150% in 2008 to more than 250% today. The Chinese Yuan Is Dropping Like a Rock China’s controlled currency is starting to depreciate. And that usually occurs before an economic crash. The Chinese yuan (also known as the renminbi) has fallen more than 7.7% against the U.S. dollar since March 2022. The yuan’s decline is partly due to the trade war with the U.S. China’s central bank has been intervening in the markets to prevent the yuan from declining too quickly. That’s caused the dollar to rise against other currencies. It’s also helped to fuel a rise in Treasury yields. A strong U.S. dollar is bad for American exports. But it’s also bad for China, since a strong dollar makes it more difficult for Chinese companies to compete abroad. China’s controlled currency is starting to depreciate. And that usually occurs before an economic crash. CNH1! Manufacturing Is Slowing Down China’s manufacturing PMI has been falling for months. In July 2018, it was 48.3, which is below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. A number below 50 is also considered to be “bad”, while a number above 50 is “good”. The PMI reading for July 2019 was 49.7. This may sound like good news for those employed in the U.S. However, it’s not. A slowdown in the manufacturing sector usually leads to a fall in consumer spending and a slowdown in the economy. That’s because reduced consumer spending leads to fewer sales and an excess of inventory or unsold goods. That often leads to a drop in GDP. China is Producing a Lot of Empty Buildings As an economic crash approaches, developers start to build a lot of empty buildings. That’s because people start to slow down their spending and are not prepared to make the necessary financial commitments. China’s ghost cities are the canary in the coal mine. These are cities where 90% of the buildings are either vacant or incomplete. Now, it’s interesting to note that China’s ghost cities were entirely vacant as recently as 2010. At that time, few people would have predicted that China would build an entire city and have no one living in it. China's shadow banking problem is a major concern for the Chinese economy. Shadow banking refers to financial services provided outside of the traditional banking sector. These include weaker institutions such as peer-to-peer lending, pawnshops and informal lending networks. Shadow banking is often used to circumvent government restrictions on the traditional banking system, which can make it harder for the government to monitor and control the overall economy. Shadow banks are also more likely to lend to high-risk borrowers, fueling asset bubbles and economic instability. As a result, shadow banking has become increasingly important in China as the country's economic growth has slowed. Despite its importance, understanding shadow banking in China is difficult due to its complexity and lack of transparency. It is best to keep an eye on developments in this area as they could have a significant impact on the Chinese economy in coming years. China Consumer Confidence Index China Unemployment Rate Conclusion In the final analysis, there are many signs that indicate that a looming economic crash in China is imminent. Indeed, analysts expect that the country could be poised for a major economic slowdown in the near future. If this happens, it will have a negative impact on global economic growth. Investors should be careful about which companies they invest in and may want to avoid companies that are heavily reliant on the Chinese economy.
NASDAQ:MCHI
by EQTSHARES
98
EUR/USD: Bears regain control and revisit 1.0730 31 May 2022, EUR/USD comes under pressure following recent tops. Germany labour market report, EMU Flash CPI next of note. US Consumer Confidence next on tap in the US docket. Sellers seem to have regained the upper hand and now drag EUR/USD back to the 1.0730 region on turnaround Tuesday. EUR/USD meets resistance just below 1.0800 Following three consecutive daily advances, EUR/USD now retreats to the 1.0730 after climbing to new monthly highs near 1.0790 at the beginning of the week. The so far corrective move in the pair comes in tandem with the resumption of some buying interest in the greenback, as US markets slowly return to the normal activity following Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. The ongoing decline in the pair also falls in line with the knee-jerk in the German 10y Bund yields, which retreat to the 1.04% region on Tuesday. In the domestic calendar, the German labour market report is due seconded by the preliminary inflation figures in the broader Euroland for the month of May. Across the pond, results from the housing sector are due ahead of the Consumer Confidence print tracked by the Conference Board. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD’s bounce off 2022 lows near 1.0350 (May 13) has been so far underpinned by unusual hawkish ECB-speak leaning towards an initial rate hike as soon as in July, while the consensus view that the bond-purchase programme should end at some point in early Q3 has also lent legs to the European currency. In addition, the renewed selling bias in the greenback has also collaborated with the multi-cent upside in the pair, as investors appear to have already pencilled in a couple of 50 bps rate hikes at the June and July gatherings. However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the euro bloc are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro. Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Tuesday) – Germany Retail Sales, Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Final Manufacturing PMI, ECB Lagarde (Wednesday) – Germany Balance of Trade, Final Services PMI, EMU Retail Sales, Final Services PMI (Friday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is retreating 0.30% at 1.0741 and a breach of 1.0641 (low May 25) would target 1.0532 (low May 20) en route to 1.0348 (2022 low May 13). On the other hand, the next up barrier emerges at 1.0786 (monthly high May 30) followed by 1.0936 (weekly high April 21) and finally 1.0981 (100-day SMA).
by sniper_2022
Falling PMI, a good indicator?US PMI figures are falling from the peak 63.7 to 53.1, and many investors are concerned of a downturn. Its increasingly likely, but not yet... You can see that many major SP500 market declines didn't occur until the PMI figure reached 50; May 1998 , Oct 2000, Oct 2007. The last was Sep 2019 and the market kept rallying until Feb 2020. The trend is certainly worrying but the US economy may need to contract for some time before the market panics to new lows.
M
by MDavi
1
Long Scalp BTC May 04 2022We can see based on the yearly volatility, that the current expected movement is around 3.05% +- Our top is going to be 40k Our bot is going to be 37.5k From the technical analysis point, Volume was broken on the top side above 38000, so thats a strong momentum indication for long opportunity. At the same time we can see that on 15 min we got a long entry at 38200. I believe we can go towards 39k minimum From fundamental point of view We have the PMI release and later on today we have FOMC -> interest rate decision. This last movement is the one that bring the highest amount of volatility possible. So I strongly recommend you to be out of the position before that happens, and once the market stabilize and takes a direction, re enter again.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by exlux
2
Euro edges lower as German PMI misses markWelcome to the first trading day of 2022! The euro is slightly lower in the European session, trading around 1.1350. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs for December pointed to growth across the bloc. France and Italy beat the consensus, while Spain and the all-eurozone PMIs were within expectations. The one disappointment was Germany, which came in at 57.4. This missed the forecast of 57.9 and was down from the November reading of 57.9. Supply constraints have hampered Germany's manufacturing sector and the pace of expansion has slowed significantly since the summer of 2021, when we were seeing readings in the mid-60s. Germany will release Retail Sales on Tuesday. This key gauge of consumer spending has struggled, posting back-to-back declines. Another decline in December would raise a red flag and investors could sour on the euro. Omicron cases continue to skyrocket, and although it is considered milder than other Covid variants, the sheer number of infected people is putting a heavy strain on health care systems worldwide. The US, Greece and other countries have shortened their isolation periods for infected people, and this could help cushion the economic blow from Omicron. We are likely to see a surge in Omicron cases in the coming weeks, but the critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected. Market sentiment has been high despite the soaring numbers, on the assumption that Omicron is not as severe as previous variants and will not cause a severe economic downturn. If we don't see a surge in hospitalisation rates and a return to lockdowns, I would expect risk sentiment to remain elevated. EUR/USD has support at 1.1303. Below, there is support at 1.1232 There is resistance at 1.1456 and 1.1415
by OANDA
EURUSD Going up - PMI beats estimatesHello Traders Here is a new BUY Opportunity, Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 58.5 in October 💹EUR/USD BUY STOP ✅ Entry @1.16450 or above ✅TP-1# 1.16650 ✅TP-2# 1.16960 ✅TP-3# 1.17450 ✅SL# 1.15350 Source: www.fxstreet.com JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Long
by jamdejam
3
Triangle pattern In this post, we will analyze Forex Gold with the symbol XAU / USD. We review the fundamental news and perform a technical analysis according to the modern price action method and identify the appropriate points and signals. Fall of gold After the price of gold fell to 1722, gold entered a short-term uptrend, causing the price to jump to $ 1762. Descending channel In general, at intervals of more than 2 hours, gold is still inside a bearish channel and its price growth was up to the top of the bearish channel last night. The downside of the channel acted as a resistance, pushing the price of gold to $ 1,751. Triangle pattern Now, in a period of 15 minutes, we see the creation of a triangular pattern whose lower side is between 1751 and 1750. Fundamentals The US PMI is scheduled to be released at 17:30 Tehran time. Forex analysts forecast a 0.3% decline. The possibility of the dollar falling But according to Powell and Ms Yellen yesterday, the PMI is expected to be lower than expected. This will weaken the dollar and strengthen gold. So the formed triangular pattern can mark the green dots and the gold weekend will be bullish. Signals Suitable entrance area: 1752 to 1751 Profit Range Suitable Range: 1755, 1757, 1760 Suitable area Loss limit: 1749.5 to 1748.5
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
A prediction for eur/usdIn this post, we analyze the most popular Forex currency pairs, the EUR / USD or the Euro against the US Dollar. We identify important areas according to the fundamental news and modern price action and predict the signals. A sharp drop in prices Members of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Secretary commented on the decision to control inflation and reduce unemployment Unemployment data from European countries such as Germany and France were also released. European countries and the United States are in the post-corona era, accompanied by rising inflation, rising prices of labor and goods and services. Rising inflation, on the one hand, and corona restrictions, on the other, have led to rising unemployment in Europe and the United States. Federal Reserve According to Mr. Powell, it is assumed that by the end of 2021 there will be no significant change in interest rates and inflation, and this will cause the dollar to depreciate. Technical The value of the euro against the dollar has reached one of its lowest levels in history, which was above the level of support from July 24 until yesterday. Level 1.156 is a strong resistance which is crossed several times during the night The 1.159 ceiling is also an important resistance that was broken several times last night. Forecast I think the market is waiting for US PMI data to determine if the dollar is still falling. But according to the main news, the PMI is likely to be lower than expected. This could weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro. Signal Buy between 1.157.6 and 1.157 Profits 1.159.8, 1.16, 1.162 and 1.165 Losses 1.156 to 1.155.5 Please read this prediction and comment
Long
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
5
usdcad analysisIn the short term, there is an uptrend that is resisting at 1.27. In the 1 hour time frame, there is a downward trend that started on September 20 and this trend continues due to the formation of successive H and L. The downtrend will continue unless the price can cross the resistance level of 1.273. Data on Canada's PMI and GDP will be released on Friday. This data is very important for the currency pair because it can have a direct impact on the value of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. In a period of 15 minutes, a triangular pattern is seen However, in the downtrend, the price is likely to continue to the main level of 1.26 and then 1.258. The stop loss in these transactions will be more than 1.273
Short
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
July PMI For 4 Major Economies (26 July 2021)Last Friday, IHS Markit released the preliminary PMI data for four major economies. Below are the key points from the individual reports. United States Services sector slowed down to a 5-month low pace due to labour shortages. Manufacturing sector expanded at record high pace. Prices of goods and services remained steep as firms pass on the high costs to consumers. Total employment growth eased to 4-month low. Business confidence declined to 7-month low mainly due to rising inflation, labour and material shortages, as well as rising concerns over the pandemic. Europe Services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 years due to reopening of economy from the lifting of COVID restrictions. Manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly reduced pace due to supply constraints, which led to an increase in backlogs of work. Employment continues to rise sharply. Prices for goods and services rose as demand surpassed supply. Business confidence declined to 5-month low as concerns over the COVID Delta variant grow. United Kingdom Business activities in the UK slowed down considerably due to shortages of workers and raw materials. Backlogs declined due to a slowdown in business activities. Business and consumer confidence fell due to the pandemic and Brexit-related difficulties with export sales. Employment growth eased to the slowest level since March. Australia Services sector slipped into contraction for the first time in 11 months. Renewed COVID restrictions caused by the spread of Delta variant affected demand and output in Australia. Decline in demand in the services sector led to a decline in work outstanding. Manufacturers continue to report shortages of supply, leading to an increase in work outstanding. Employment in both the services and manufacturing sectors continue to grow.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
The Fundamentals of Forex - Lesson 1 PMIIn the next following days I am going to work on a full education course designed for understanding the fundamentals behind Forex market and at the same time showing how it can be used for days trading using fundamental news strategy. Our first lesson : U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Understanding the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing Reports The Service and Manufacturing sectors comprise the majority percentage of US GDP. As such it is important to gauge the overall health of these components. One of the most useful sentiment studies that can help traders and investors to forecast future economic trends is the ISM PMI Manufacturing report, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing report. What is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report ? The Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The Institute was founded in 1915, and was the first supply management institute in the world. The report on business is a composite index that helps measure the economic health of the US economy. Though the Manufacturing PMI has been around for much longer, there was a need to measure the economic situation within the service sector as well. This is especially true since the service sector is attributed a majority percentage of US GDP in real terms As such the ISM Non-Manufacturing report was born. This report has been published by ISM starting in 1998. The data is compiled from surveys of approximately 400 purchasing managers in over 65 various non-manufacturing industries including mining, agriculture transportation, retail, and more. The report is released on a monthly basis on the third day of each month and reflects the data for the previous month. The Non Manufacturing Composite Index (NMI) is based on four equally weighted indicators: New Orders, Business Activity, Employment, and Supplier Delivery. All of these indicators are seasonally adjusted expect for the Supplier deliveries. Generally speaking, when the index is over 50, it demonstrates that the economy is growing, while an index of less than 50 signals a contracting economy. In addition, a better than expected reading is usually bullish for the US Dollar, and conversely a lower than anticipated reading is usually bearish for the US Dollar. Positive readings over time will also tend to help boost stock prices. Typically, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index has a somewhat diminished market impact compared to the Manufacturing PMI release. One reason for this is that the non-manufacturing sector is generally much less volatile and more foreseeable than its US Manufacturing Index counterpart. What is the ISM PMI Manufacturing Index ? PMI Manufacturing Index on trading view MAN_PMI chart It measures the manufacturing output for a particular time horizon. The ISM PMI Manufacturing report is released every month, on the first business day of the month. The data reflects the prior month’s activity. The manufacturing sector is an integral component of the overall economic health of a country. Although the manufacturing sector of the US economy is less than 15% of total GDP, it is nevertheless an important economic report and often highly watched by many Forex traders. The report is produced by ISM and is a diffusion index, which basically means that it has various components that comprise the index. The resulting number is then updated to take into account seasonality factors. The PMI Index composite takes into account the following indicators: New Orders, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The ISM Manufacturing report is gathered by surveying over 400 Purchasing and Supply managers about their future expectations on production, inventories, employment, and new customer orders. The benchmark number is 50 for the index. So, if the number is higher than 50 then this hints of economic growth, while a reading of 50 or lower is considered to be contractionary. The ISM PMI index is considered to be a leading indicator. It helps foretell future spending and expenditures that contribute to economic expansion. The indicator tends to reflect changes before the economy does. If there is an uptick in the PMI index, meaning there is more manufacturing output, then this is likely to lead to stronger economic considerations. And contrary to this, if there is a downtick in the PMI manufacturing index, meaning there is less manufacturing output, then this is likely to lead to weaker economic conditions. Trading the ISM Numbers As we have learned in the earlier section, an ISM composite index number above 50 indicates that the US economy is expanding. In addition, when the number has been above the 50 baseline for several months, it tells us that the economy is stable and strong. Conversely, when the number is below 50 it indicates that the US economy is contracting. And a number that has been below the 50 baseline for several months, can warn us of a potential recession. Aside from the longer term forecast that we can make using the ISM figures, short term traders, can take advantage of the ISM economic release for short term price movements. One of the more popular types of news trading methodologies using the ISM report is to trade a divergence between expected results and the actual figure that came in. For example, if economists are expecting a reading over 55 and the actual index composite comes in at 52 or 53, then the market may react to this discrepancy after the release. In this case, fundamental news traders would likely expect the lower than expected figure to be bearish for the Dollar, and a day trading opportunity could exist to ride the short term momentum on a weakening Dollar. You could sell the USD/JPY pair for example, or buy the EUR/USD pair for a short term day trade or scalp. However, this trading idea is a generalization and traders need to keep in mind other news events and/or technical levels that could override the ISM reading. Real examples For this analyse, lets take a look at EUR/USD pair since December 2020 using 15/30min time frame chart. Rules : Actual data is lower than forecast -> EURUSD LONG opportunity. -> USDJPY SHORT opportunity Actual data is higher than forecast -> EURUSD SHORT opportunity. -> USDJPY LONG opportunity Risk reward ratio : 1:1.5 OR 1:2 Also from my volatility calcuations over the last years, I found out that the best it should be to look for 10-20 pips movements in case of EUR/USD after the release of the PMI. Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Dec 01, 2020 (Nov) 11:00 57.5 58.0 59.3 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jan 05, 2021 (Dec) 11:00 60.7 56.6 57.5 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Feb 01, 2021 (Jan) 11:00 58.7 60.0 60.5 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Mar 01, 2021 (Feb) 11:00 60.8 58.8 58.7 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Apr 01, 2021 (Mar) 10:00 64.7 61.3 60.8 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous May 03, 2021 (Apr) 10:00 60.7 65.0 64.7 -> EUR/ USD LONG OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jun 01, 2021 (May) 10:00 61.2 60.9 60.7 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have lost the trade Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jul 01, 2021 (Jun) 10:00 60.6 61.0 61.2 -> EUR/ USD SHORT OPPORTUNITY In this case we would have won the trade RESULTS 5 Wins and 3 Losses Giving us a 60% win rate with a risk reward of 1:1.5
Education
by SoftKill21
6