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Gold Getting Ready to Disappoint InvestorsI can tell by the title I wrote that gold bugs are already pissed off. Long story short, I think gold (and silver) will go further down in value. I first want to start by saying I love precious metals including gold, but I don't think this scenario is going to play out the way any sane person would think. That's why you have me, completely lacking all sanity. Lol. Any decent gold bug would be laughing their asses off right now trying to understand how I could think gold could go even FURTHER down in value. All the central banks printing fiat money like mad men. The eminent stock and housing market crash. The ever dwindling trust of the people in their government. How could all of these add up to a lower gold price yet again? If you want my fundamental reasons why, you can read my article on Steemit or AssetGuild.com ... On TradingView, we'll stick strictly to TA... Let's get into the meat and potatoes. To be clear, I am about 70/30 for a bearish continuation of gold and other precious metals in general. The price of Gold reached an ATH in 2011 at about $1900. Since then, price as been beaten down to lows of $1050. Now we are in this range supported within a long term wedge that gets tighter as the weeks go on. There is only so much time before a big move comes. The Bear Case: In my opinion, gold entered bear market territory when price broke below the 100 and 200 MA. We saw a run down to $1050, then a run up to $1835. This was claimed to be the "new bull market" by many. Since then, price had played into this wedge pattern that we've been in for years now and is giving mixed signals with it's moving averages. Price is now testing the 200 MA after breaking through the 100 MA which leads me to believe there will likely be a rejection here. Why? because it's the opposite of what everyone wants. Further more, breaking above the 200 MA signals the exiting of a bear market. And if we were truly in a bear market, we would need to fulfill one important category on my radar: The RSI. We have yet to see an oversold condition in the monthly RSI. It happens for nearly every asset class in past bear market including for gold. I have targets for $1,000 gold over the next few years and $735 gold in the most bearish situation. The biggest thing to keep an eye on is this long term wedge pattern the gold price is in. We have consistently bounced within this wedge creating a coiling action in price. The end result is going to be a big move in one direction or the other. What most investors expect is a great performance by gold, but I can't help but think the opposite will happen. In the long term, we are still in a corrective bear market. Meaning people bullish on gold will continue to be disappointed until they run out of capital. That's where the oversold condition on the RSI helps us out. Though, it might be many years before we see anything like that. The Case for the Bulls I am pretty certain the scenario I've described above is the most likely, but there is always the chance I end up being wrong. Any investor/trader is foolish to say they are always right. So what do the bulls have going for them? Well that trend line supporting price in that great big wedge has held support for a longer time than gold has even been in this bear market. There is a chance that it is given greater respect. From a technical standpoint, that is the only long-term signal to me that I could be wrong on this. If you have any analysis on price, please share your link below. I am more than open to take a look. I am not permanently biased. Just biased until I'm proven wrong. Overall, I think a bull market in gold would be giving precious metals investors exactly what they want. Big money interests are still looking to accumulate the metal, and they would love nothing more than to accumulate it at a cheaper price. From an economic standpoint, we are still tightening in the US. Meaning interest rates are going up and are becoming more attractive to investors, the US dollar is getting strong and inflation is DECREASING. Gold does not historically consistently perform well during deflation, especially when it's no longer used as a global currency. Strong Dollar = Weak Gold Thanks for stopping by!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by micahjmiller
3
Testing The Moving Water on USA Stocks #PM #NYSE Hi Followers and Visitors, So far, the Moving Water has done a good Job on Crypto, but what about Stock Exchange? Let's start thinking outside the box and initiate a series of tests on US Stock Exchanges, for now - NYSE A LONG TRADE - SHORT TERM - to Philip Morris International PM - NYSE Let's see if it could also work in this world. Hope the Best for you All. M.W. Good Luck and Good Profit ___________________________________________________________ Disclosure: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. ___________________________________ => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. You must do your own due diligence. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => PLEASE: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow.
NYSE:PMLong
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
1
Skipped through 88, next in line is 75 and then a comeback (PM)PM fell today after earnings report more than it really should. It passed through level 88 like butter and is trading lower at the time of writing. Next support is around 75.5, however I would look into buying it at 78 if it falls there. In short earnings report beat PROFIT expectations, expected: 0.90$, was 1$; Revenue was also higher Y/Y by about 13%, however, and here is the reason everyone went bearish - this revenue was shorter for $100m. Bear in mind company expensed $80m in Q1 for a major ad campaign that will run though-out 2018 and had a small setback in Saudi Arabia. In my opinion, not a justified reason to drop by more than 15% in one single day and we should see it climb back up pretty soon.
NYSE:PMLong
by Repuzel
XAU/USD 3x divergence to resistance over 1260 or down -> 5th legThis is not a clear sell. Even tho the price has been around 1292-1295 this time around there are some room for it to continue higher. If price falls down below 1260 and through the 7 year triangle line that then becomes resistance again --> strong sell signal to the 5th leg at 1200ish. Trump would be in big trouble if the stock market crashed so he will do everything he can to prolong the process. In late september the balance sheet/debt ceiling trouble is coming up.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by thefreedommatrix
XAGUSD : Long Term Buy Setup at $15.3Amid all bottoming speculations and Rate Hike in 2016. Gold and Silver gave tough time to the Bull Speculators at end of the year by diminishing the bull story for almost 80%. For EW, it was expected, though it was quickfall even for them. I believe a long term traders should try to take small chunk of buy at $15.3 where I see the possible bottoming. I expect the Corrective pullback (wave 4) towards $23.350 . Which is almost 8$ rally. This is best possible trade for 2017 for any precious metals. I expect this to finish by at least end of 2nd qtr. I will Keep posting on lower TF time to time whenever required or you ask me to do it. Note : (c) of ABC could be extensive (618 fib) towards bottom, so plan and trade wisely with suitable money management.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by robus
5
GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPENMysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank forecast of the Bank of England Policy change on the 4th of August is becoming ever more dovish (e.g. calls for >£50bn QE and more than 25bps of cuts by Banks). 2. Struggling to find answers I looked at the Article 50 odds/ Implied probability from the odds aggregator (oddschecker) - to my surprise, but in support of GBP top side I have seen the market shift aggressively in the last week - with odds of a 2016 signing falling to 16.5% from 35%, but more worryingly the odds of a 2018 or later or NOT AT ALL steepening aggressively to 50% from 30% . - 2018 or later or not at all is now the most probable outcome, worrying that this is even possible given the referendum was decided by the people in a democracy - how is this even possible? IMO it should have been mandated to be signed within a given period e.g. 1wk/ 1m. - Even more worrying is that T. May the newly elected PM, Pre-PM was a brexit Bull and vowed that exiting the EU was her top priority and she "saw it as a way to make Britain great again". However, now if you look at the news, she is somewhat of a Brexit bear, recently stating "The Article 50 will NOT be signed in 2016" - completely writing the front end of the curve off. 3. This is likely the potential driver of sterling strength as a delayed non-signing 1) increases the time until we actually leave the EU - given there is ALREADY a clause in the article 50 agreement that states there is a 2yr "cooling off/ negotiation period" where Britain's relationship with the EU will remain exactly the same for 2yrs once the article 50 is signed - so by not signing it until mid 2017 this means technically there will be 3yrs between Brexit vote and leaving which means three years of relatively unchanged economic conditions - thus this in mind why should GBP get weaker now/ in the near-term? 2) and in turn, the above reduces BOE cutting odds - if we're not leaving any time soon the economics should be relatively flat thus no easing needed which means less GBP near-term downside. 4. Also another potential sterling topside driver is the speculation that the BOE is coming underpressure NOT to cut rates by Retail Banks as by doing so it reduces their net interest margins (lower profitability) causing restructuring/ lay-offs in the industry - LLOYDS BANKING GROUP IS AXING 3,000 JOBS AND CLOSING 200 BRANCHES AS IT RACES TO CUT COSTS IN ANTICIPATION OF AN INTEREST RATE CUT - if considered a systemic risk this could seriously reduce the probability of BOE action. Though i think it is more of a isolated issue - Lloyds likely needed to restructure anyway based on already low profitability rather than as a direct function of a potential rate cut. It is almost laughable to think 3000 jobs are being cut because of a small 25bps cut alone. Trading implications: 1. Obviously this is a downer on GBP shorts, however, this is ONLY a suggestion for GBP strength - i could be over estimating the impact but the argument is nonetheless a solid one. 2. Still below 1.36 i stay a seller of rallies - and watch closely for the 4th of August when the BOE is expected to deliver easing which should move GBP$ to 1.25-1.28 where i will TP. - Current implied BOE bank rate cut probabilities are priced as the following: -Three month short sterling (GBP) rate - 66% probability of a 25bps cut, up from 64% on the 26th. -GBP Nominal OIS Spot rate - 84% probability of a 25bps cut on the 26th, up from 76% on the 25th -GBP 1m Fwd Nominal OIS Rate - 29bps 100% priced as of 26th, up from 26bps on the 25th.
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLYBullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he remained hawkish net on the margin, reiterating FED Georges hawkish comments regarding the labour market "About as Good as It's Ever Been", whilst using the June NFP print to flatten any questions regarding the low May print saying "Strong June Jobs Gains Showed May Report Was 'An Anomaly'". Similarly Bullard continued with Georges sentiment of the US's post-brexit robustness stating that the "Market Reaction to Brexit Shock Was 'Satisfactory,' 'Orderly'" - and infact surprisingly pushed this hawkish brexit sentiment on to new levels of "Ultimately the Brexit Impact on U.S. Economy Will be 'Close to Zero'". This is perhaps the most hawkish/ upbeat statement i have heard form a key Fed member since the decision which is positive given Bullard's naturally dovish stance. Bullard also stressed the need for a solid US Fiscal package to boost demand, where i have to say fiscal stimulus has almost gone forgotten about in the last 7-years post crash, given the dominance of the central banks, quoting "U.S. Badly Needs Fiscal Agenda for Boosting Economic Growth". Once again todays "FED speaker tracker" continues to add to my long $ view in the medium term. Today already we have seen front end rates continue their aggressive recovery this week, with the fed funds rate implied 25bps hike probability now trading for Sept/ Nov at a whopping 18% vs 11.7%Mon, with Dec trading at 36.3% vs 29.2%Mon . 10y UST (TNX) rates trade up another 4% today after a 5% gain yesterday, whilst 30yrs trade 3% up on the day (TNY) - as global risk rallies. Whilst USD is trading a little weaker in the immediate term as it readjusts lower for risk-on USD selling, long USD/ DXY is my medium term view as we continue to see the US FOMC Rate curve aggressively steepen, which is likely to continue for the next week at least - steeper implied curve means hike is more likely - more likely or realised hikes = increased (in the medium-term) dollar strength. Further, we expect dovish/ easing BOJ BOE ECB over the same period, this monetary policy divergence compounds the long $ view against its 3 biggest crosses (hence the long DXY expression) Medium term trading strategy: 1. The best expression of this medium term USD view is long DXY - as above I hold 8/10 conviction views for a number of the heavily weighted USD basket crosses based largely on likely monetary policy divergence in the medium term (FOMC Hiking whilst BOE, BOJ & ECB ease/ cut) e.g. LONG USDJPY @104 - 106.3TP1 109.5TP2; SHORT EURUSD @1.11 - 109.3TP1 107.5TP2; GBPUSD @1.34 - 131.2TP1 128.5TP2
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
8
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOEThe Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. Trading Strategy 1. Given this I remain bullish on the $ in the medium term, despite this spike in risk-on which IMO is unlikely to last more than 2wks. In the immediate term I like long $yen as the best play ATM vs other expressions - with a target of 109, entry at 104 as 1) the markets have finally signalled they are ready for a recovery bull run, post the brexit risk-off/ safe haven rally - largley on the back of CB stimulus. I believe USDJPY has been the most sold risk-on asset, thus it is now ripe for buying; 2) JPY fiscal stimulus is likely to come; 3) BOJ is likely to deliver 10-20bps of cuts to its interest rate 4) we have broken the 104 "brexit seller resistance level" which has held since the vote - this break imo means we can now move to 109+ as the recovery leg before resuming lower; 5) the Fed Funds Rate curve continues to steepen across the curve but particularly aggressively in the front end (yesterday 10ys adding 5%) and as a result implied probabilities of hikes continue to rally across the 2016/17 tenors (Dec hike now 33.7% vs 29.2%Mon); 5) check the attached posts for long $jpy support 2. Secondly, short GBP$ is a trade i am closely eyeing.. I am a 70% seller at 1.32 (90% at 1.35) - short GBP rallies is the preferred trade as the BOE is likely to deliver easing in Aug that will drive us down to the 1.25 terminal rate that I have predicted - thus i am hoping we get some "poor information money" flows into GBP up to 1.34/5 going into Friday as 1) UK Political Uncertainty is eased - as Theresa May is the New PM starting Wednesday; 2) GBP buying on Thursday if the BOE doesn't cut rates, whilst I (and the market) believes an august cut is the likelihood instead, given the aggressive GBP selling these past weeks it is prudent to assume quite a large amount of money may/was be betting on a July Cut thus if this "disappoints" some of the market we could see cable trade higher to 1.34+; 3) Long GBP is the risk-on trade, so if risk holds up/ carries on rallying we could see GBP$ take us to 1.34+ - CB and Fiscal stimulus + the fact risk has been depressed for so long, i believe risk has the momentum to rally until the end of the week at least (next risk-rally then looks to 28th July for BOJ stimulus?) 3. The long $Yen and short GBP$ also acts as a dynamic hedge as the long UJ is the risk-on coverage, with the short cable the risk-off half - combining both semi-hedges your exposure, something i like to do when trading. FED Tarullo Speech Highlights - "the conditions for destructive runs that threaten financial stability could exist even where no institutions that might be perceived as too-big-to-fail are immediately involved" FED Bullard Speech Highlights - Bullard: An unemployment rate around 4.7%, gross domestic product growth of 2% and the Fed' preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, at 2%. - "If there are no major shocks to the economy, this situation could be sustained over a forecasting horizon of two and a half years" - "we have no reason to forecast a recession given the current state of the US economy"
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADENow that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market hunted for risk off. Further, as with GBP it seems entities over the weekend have increased their JPY exposure to account for the increased percieved risk within the market causing UJ to open lower at 101.6 - However, over the weekend the BOJ had a meeting with other Japanese officials to discuss their plan (an easing plan likely) to combat 1. their inflation problem and now 2. the JPY's safe haven demand strength - both of which are cured by 8/10 aggressive easing policies by the BOJ - Thus I expect the BOJ to hold and emergency meeting this week announcing these changes to have immediate affect as UJ at 100 severely puts the brakes on their inflation growth target. - Further, as previously mentioned the BOE, SNB, FOMC and ECB (among others) have all said since the brexit vote that they are prepared to provide liquidity to markets and their rhetoric has been very dovish. - Thus the BOJ's new easing package which is likely to be aggressive e.g. 20bps rate cute and a large increase QE, will help depreciate the currency through increasing supply and reducing jpy demand. Further, the supportive/ dovish stance of the worlds central banks (particularly BOE and FOMC) will help ease risk aversion which in turn SHOULD reduce JPY demand therefore helping UJ trade better to the upside. So my trading plan for UJ is to buy at levels <102 - 101/2 is ideal (we are unlikely see 99 or 100 again as the risk-off impetuses have died). UJ should hold this range between 101.2 and 103 until CB meetings are in place - I will be holding UJ in the long term through to 110-115 at least. I have 8/10 long conviction for UJ Volatility update: Current UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 37.5%, which is surprisingly 3-4x higher than it was last week (the risk and volatility may not be over). 1wk UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade at 20%, significantly lower than current at 37.5% - I think this is a function of the central bank meetings expected this week which are inflating current volatility, with 1wk far vols lower as the events will have elapsed already. 1m UJ ATM 50 delta vols trade up on the week at 15.5% though the time curve is flattening meaning UJ vol is falling over time - lower vols = better conditions for UJ buying. Current UJ Option demand is skewed significantly to the downside, with Puts 40% vs calls 36% thus puts are in demand by about 10% more than calls - this supports nearterm risk-off views (RR -4). USDJPY as a measure of market risk. I still suggest using UJ as a measure of GBPUSD market risk - the volatility seemingly isnt over, and with near term uncertainty high, it is prudent to track UJ and use breaks of its 101.2-103.2 range as signals of net risk on or risk-off commitment .e.g. UJ higher risk on (jpy selling), UJ lower risk off (jp buying). The risk off move for GU imo is lower in this environment, and the risk-on move is higher. Thus, IMO UJ and GU are sync'd, and the two should be used as a tool.
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
Silver Inverse H&S BottomI'm bullish silver for a number of fundamental reasons, but if this pattern confirms, it's the technical icing on the cake and gives an initial upside target of around $18.5, which coincides nicely with a pre existing zone of horizontal support and resistance. We also broke out of the long downtrend, we retested that steep line as support from the other side, and made a bottom and went sideways... we then formed a double bottom in the process of this inverse head and shoulders, and we're now climbing out. Neckline break confirms, but I'm long already. moreover the price ratio of gold to silver has never been more extreme, and we are seeing equities start to top out which also send money towards precious metals. This could be a fantastic long entry for the long term.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by BobVanders
1
PM 87.73 bullish – 2.5-year triangle breakout points higherPM 87.73 bullish – 2.5-year triangle breakout points higher PM broke out of 2.5-year triangle resistance (as shown on the weekly chart) to post new year-to-date highs. Bullish momentum suggests further upside towards 90.25 (November 10, 2015 weekly high) and then 91.63 (June 16, 2015 weekly high) near 76.4% of the 96.73/75.27 fall. Above there would open the 96.73 record high (April 29, 2013). 85.89 (October 16, 2015 low) which is the breakout point and 200-week moving average (black line) should provide immediate support to hold dips. Below lies the 83.79 low (October 12, 2015). Outlook: Daily: bullish Weekly: bullish
NYSE:PMLong
by novvoll12