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Buy businesses that sticks for lifeIf you examine the type of stocks to buy from the perspective of marketing, then it becomes much more interesting. This Covid-19 has been a game changer for many industries but the few that sticks to consumers, good times or bad times, recession or not, they were always be there. The vices industry like alcohol, tobacco are going to be there no matter how much lobby there going to be or more reports on how it can cause cancer. Also, there is gaming, one of the shiny stars now that are leading many stock markets to a new high. We have heard of people who died while playing games. (see articles here , here and here ). If you are a gamer, please hydrate, look at some green plants every 30 mins or so and remember to stretch. I made my kids do that now. The more it sticks with the group (ie. smokers, drinkers or gamers), the more depth and breadth the market will be (ie. more people smoke, drink and play games and smoke, drink and play more frequent which helps to increase the revenue). With the entertainment places like bars, night clubs closed for now, where do the party-goers drink ? They have to drink at home and perhaps buy more different varieties from duty free shops or order online to try. Or smokers who get more bored cooping up at home and problems might be exacerbated if he/she is stressed out from being retrenched, unemployed or having a wage cut. Gaming is more pervasive than the other two - you can play on your mobile phone anywhere while you are on the move or while queuing to make payment, etc. Smoking has more restrictions and government also ban alcohol buying for certain age limit and after certain hours. to curb excessive drinking. Without going too far, I take a simplistic view of the chart comparing 3 companies, one in each of these sectors - drinks (Kweichou Moutai), tobacco (Phillip Morris) and gaming (Tencent). Assuming you bought one or three of them from 2 Jan 2019 and hold till now, the ROI would be 210% , 85% and 332% respectively. What other sticky business can you think of ? Please share in the comments below. If you like my trading ideas, please share with your friends and remember to follow me. Feel free to let me know what stocks, commodities, forex, indices ,etc that you would like me to help you analyse. As you know, I am more of a technical person, looking 80% from charts to trade/invest leaving 20% to fundamentals. Trade safely and take care !
SSE:600519Long
by dchua1969
Here are a few tips every one should knowHere's a couple of tips from me that might help in your trading. Those are just my opinions and all are belong to me. Practice think practice think review old ones repeat repeat repeat. It takes a whole lot of thinking and a whole lot of practicing to be good. Give your brain practice all the time like a muscle, and just repeat over and over. Look at examples, past trades, re-read what to do and what not to, re-read all your rules over and over, not until you know them, until forever or they'll just fade away. The more you hammer it in the better you get. Be logical DO NOT FOMO AND INSIST (or enjoy lose lose lose and then miss the final move that is a winner). Mistakes are really expensive. Best to miss out and not force and go look at something else, possibly analyse that one you missed and understand why you missed it, and how to fix, maybe by simplifying the way you detect those. Spend a whole lot of time analysing markets... Try really hard to really think every trade through... do not waste time on "meh" setups. Missing out is not that big of a deal imagine you get 10 of those a month, that's 120/year, now imagine you miss out 2/month you still get to 96/year and you had more time to spend on the 96. And you can still learn something from what you missed out on. Better than losing sanity from looking at charts hunting for setups all the time (and ending up forcing trades and bleeding capital). Price action is not physics. A "weak uptrend" is really what they call a long bull market that ran over countless bears that are all underwater in much pain, and often it ends up with bears giving up and a massive green candle up. And same, a "strong uptrend" is what they call price action with no bears. They did not vanish into another dimension, they just are not present in the market right now. But they are around. Which means they could be just around the corner and all jump in at the same time and reverse the price. In general I think the best is to not go against a "weak" trend ever. What is weak and what is strong enough? That's for you to find out. If you want to go against a pullback it is generally better to enter on vertical price action. People when they see violent price action get scared and remove their orders. The opposite is the right thing to do. Slow price => remove order. Violent price => GOOD, bring it on. Of course you will get run over from time to time. This is your job as a speculator. Speaking of weak trends, do not just use a price stop, but also a time stop: Price just goes nowhere for a long while => Get out. There is no reason for risk ever to be over 2% , and those are reserved for top stuff. Usually around half a percent is good especially when starting, then it can be scaled as the acc grows and even increased progressively to 1% to get a decent sized account. If you really are very certain of your strategy and want to go fast and cannot contain yourself then it is perfectly fine ok I understand you can risk more than a small 2% that barely will make you any money who wants to be spending hundreds of hours to make $50 :) Go for it. Make sure you can not lose more than all of your money, such as with using options or stocks that can only go to zero. At that point the strategy does not even matter. Also make sure you use alot of money, that you spent years to save up. And then keep taking trades until you lose everything. You really have to make sure it is very painful and you go into despair and lose all hope. Trust me when I say with 99% certainty you will really learn your lesson and won't require to learn it again. You will then not ever want to "go quick" again. 99% efficiency guarenteed. You won't have these stupid urges to risk big. If your spouse leaves you it is even better. Leaves a scar that won't heal as a permanent reminder. And consider yourself lucky that you only lost everything.
Education
by MrRenev
1
XAU H4 UPDATE - BEARISH CYPHERIn our previous XAU analysis, we took a look at the daily where targets such as $1800 seem nearly inevitable given market conditions. That analysis is still valid, and is linked below. Here, we have a bearish harmonic pattern developing that I have seen very good accuracy from in the past. Something to be aware of. Targets for a short are the legs of the harmonic. IE 1700, 1670, etc. This pattern could be valid and only result in a small retrace to $1700 ish, the B Leg pivot point. Alternatively, The Daily set up could prove stronger and this might not materialize at all. Given the TD9 though, I expect we’ll at least see a small pullback here. Good luck.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by vox-populi
4
Silver - Potential Buy-in Opportunity and a Look at PriceSilver is one of those classic investments that people tend to buy as price moves rapidly in a positive direction. By the time you hear about Silver's performance, the smart money is already unloading their holdings. I like silver. In fact, it's one of my top long term holdings. I think with the positive traction gold has had over the past 20 years proves the case for precious metals, and displays the shaky ground holding up fiat currency. Silver is merely a leveraged play of gold, and it's cheap price makes it easier to buy and sell small quantities of physical holdings. I will post a monthly chart of silver as well to show where I think price is going over the next 10-20 years. But, for today we will focus on he weekly chart and where things are headed over the next year or so. This recent run up to $19.80 is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO rally. Just like I said, people only buy silver when the price is already up. There is no interest in the space otherwise, and the people who have been buying the last 3 months are already regretting it, or are in denial. We won't see $19-20 silver for at least another year or two. I do think silver poses a great long term buy. If you are going to hold for more than 20 years, you can't go wrong. However, if you think price will double over the next year, you got another thing coming. I'm expecting a retest of $15.50-16 over the next 6 months, with a few relief rallies along the way. We can still play the swings over this time and make money. Over the next 1 to 2 years, I thinks there's a good 60% chance (roughly) to retest $14. I've drawn out the two scenarios I think are the most likely to play out. The one that plays out all depends on how price behaves over the next 6 months, and how soon we get a strong relief rally. If the rally happens too soon, I think we move back down to $14 and don't see $18-19 until late 2021. If we have a healthy correction down to $15-16 and have a later rally, I think we could see $18-19 sooner. The main thing to keep in mind is that overhead resistance keeping us in this long term wedge. The market will respect this pattern, until of course it doesn't. Keep your eye on the swings of this market, and you might make some coin (pun intended). Thanks for stopping by!
COMEX:SI1!
by micahjmiller
GOLD- should we turn into a buyer yet?If you guys have seen our recent analysis on gold you know that we have been shorting it all the way from the 1540s. Due to the recent US-CHINA negotiation optimism + a surprisingly better employment data earlier today, we have seen a sell-off in PMs and Yen. In our opinion, there are some good stops at and below the 1520s and we may see a run down near 1500. Based on our technical view, we have a demand zone at 1496 level, marked in green. We may turn into a buyer at those levels. We continue to monitor as we go!
FX:XAUUSD
by MokaTrades
MOPartial long entries today.. 43.80 range holding, for now, looking to see if we can get a curl up 30c or so before today's close. Watching for that small descending triangle intraday, We'll be looking for support levels below hold next week. Some decent support was broken, but it's been reclaimed in the past with fakeouts, so am not concerned. Looking at a weekly close range to gauge potential fakeout. If a close below 44.24 then lowest close in many years. 2 weeks from ex-div, so expecting a bottom to be hit and then some large buying power and short covering in the coming week-2 weeks. 38+-43(mid) range I fully expect to hold. It's a wide range, but strong. Future announcements concerning the merger or regulatory measures can keep some on edge. Get in before 9/13 for that 84c dividend. 1to1 at these prices puts it higher 50's with PM. Investors hopeful of .78 PM to 1 MO, but details, if any, are far out. Negative JUUL news helping shorters, again, expect Short covering.
NYSE:MO
by CNotes1234
Precious Metals Market SummaryGOLD Though 3 days ago the daily close was the highest close since 2013, we stopped the rally. On the 8 hrs chart above it still seems we are just testing back the triangle but as we are on day 18 time is not working for us. Today is day 18. I'm expecting a top on the 25-26th day. That would be on or one day ahead of FOMC. The drop back below the triangle's upper trendline would be bearish. We have ECB rate decision this week what will not help for gold bulls. Any word of Draghi is weakening the euro. SILVER XAGUSD is not showing any kind of weakness despite the strong dollar. It is moving out of the bottom of the range breaking the multi year down trendline. I guess JP Morgan's plan was to made an undercut a below 14$ in May but the rate cut speculations and the Gulf tensions had crossed their plans and silver rallied. XAUXAG ratio seems wants to tag the 200 SMA, so for one or two days silver will outperform. Then gold will rally faster as XAUXAG bounces. Later this summer I think XAUXAG will print a lower low. It means that at the end of this IC silver spike up to 21 $. The last 2 days can be a 1-1,5 $ day. In this hysteria I'm sure you want to be long with an exploding account. Can this precious intermediate cycle top here? Anything is possible in this business but history says even if it's a short intermediate cycle we have weeks to go. So whatever happens most probably we will have one more daily cycle with a higher high. But we are getting close to the second daily cycle top here in the following week. Fundamentals are still in the help of a PM rally here. 1.Tension in the Persian Gulf with the boarding of a british tanker remains high. 2. Traders are waiting for an upcoming interest rate cut by the FED next week : this is extremely bullish for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. (However there is some uncertainty whether the Fed will reduce rates by 0.25% or 0.50% ) The only thing I see is a problem for our precious metal long positions is the Dollar. Unfortunately every country in the world is trying to weaken its currency to help its export and stock markets. The 200 SMA/EMA is holding tight this artificial rally in the dollar. I don't know how far can they hold it above the moving average. The question when the FED will pull out its head from his a*** and say ENOUGH. I think the first rate cut will be the "E" of this ENOUGH word.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by chartwatchers
34