Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth.
This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices.
As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Oscillators
Bitcoin ALL-TIME-HIGH is STILL COMING: Here's WhyA hint... the RSI.
The RSI is one of those reliable old-timers, especially useful in higher timeframes to determine longer period price action, such as near term and long term.
Together with Elliot Wave Theory, I'm going to present to you an argument for why Bitcoin is STILL BULLISH and what my strategy/expectation is for the coming weeks. I'll also share key metrics to watch and do regular updates should the conditions mentioned in the video be met.
Although I am short term bearish, I remain longer term bullish, making it really impossible to label this post as solely "short" or "long".
Cheers to the Top10%'ers 🥂
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Polkastarter (POLS)On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in October 2021 (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why?
1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown).
2) Price action resistance breakout.
3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over a 90 day period. The idea is a mirror copy of the LCX idea 48hrs ago.
Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: Don’t know.
BarnBridge (BOND) - Bullish divergence** warning - tiny market cap **
On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected 90% since June of last year. Astonishingly sellers have returned price action back to support. Is now a good time to go long?
1) Oscillators prints bullish divergence with price action. As a matter of fact more oscillators print positive divergence than the previous time price action moved from 2 dollars to 20 dollars in less than a month.
2) Price action has returned to support. Astonishing, did every buyer of the last move sell back at a lower price?
3) Some other reasons..
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Trade
Risk: <= 1%
Timeframe: act now
Return: As before, around 600-700%
MDEX (MDX)On the above daily chart price action has corrected 70%. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:
1) You know why..
2) Multiple oscillators print positive divergence over an extended time frame. Look left.
3) RSI resistance breakouts on both USD and BTC pairs.
4) The last time those conditions printed a significant move followed in the days ahead.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? no.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe: Now, don’t hang around.
Return: 250%
The current conditions entail significant risk for placing orderStrategy: Neutral Risk for placing orders: Significant High
Summary
Long-term and short-term trends: Prices are moving near the lower band of the trend channels, indicating a possible reversal towards the main trend.
Fibonacci Retracement: Critical support levels. The currency pair may move downward to the level of 1.34322 without changing the main trend.
Fibonacci Expansion: Resistance levels that determine the upward movement at points 1.3763, 1.3860, and 1.4000.
Technical Indicators: The use of moving averages and the MACD shows a high risk for trades. The technical indicators do not align with the main trend, emphasizing caution in decision-making.
Trend Determination
The prevailing main trend on the exchange rate price chart is upward. The secondary short-term trend currently on the exchange rate price chart is downward.
Within the main upward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving downward within the lower band. In the secondary downward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving downward within the lower band.
The movement of the price near the lower band of the secondary trend channel could indicate an imminent reversal of the short-term trend towards the main trend direction. The lower band of the trend channel is considered a support level. However, this scenario requires further investigation and is currently a mere hypothesis. The price movement within the created channels carries medium risk for placing trades.
Support-Resistance Levels – Fibonacci
Fibonacci Retracement:
Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool will help identify critical support levels and points within which there is increased risk for placing trades.
The Fibonacci Retracement tool will be applied to the upward course of the exchange rate. This way, the levels to which the exchange rate can move downward without being considered a trend reversal can be determined. Specifically, according to the current conditions in the exchange rate, this point is around 1.34322.
The possibility of breaking this support point and continuing the price movement below 1.34322 requires great caution as it could signal a trend reversal and significant losses.
From the study of the Fibonacci sequence in this currency pair, two important levels emerge, which are necessary to mention. Placing trades at any point within these two levels carries increased risk due to the accumulation of pressure. This range is defined by the levels of 1.34322 and 1.35831. The risk decreases above the 1.36764 limit for the possibility of placing a buy order.
Fibonacci Expansion:
The purpose of using the Fibonacci Expansion tool is to identify resistance levels. Consequently, these levels can be used to estimate the range of the possible upward movement.
The current movement of the exchange rate is considered significant and quite clear. This significantly helps in applying the Fibonacci Expansion tool and identifying the resistance levels for this upward movement.
The resistance levels that appear to exist and their distance from the current price, which is considered noteworthy, are as follows:
1.3763 – 133 pips
1.3860 – 230 pips
1.4000 – 370 pips
The application of a second Fibonacci Expansion was deemed necessary, initially because the movement was quite strong and secondly, the identification of intermediate levels will better define the price movement range.
Technical Indicator Analysis
To smooth prices, determine trend dynamics, and strength, a system of three moving averages will be used. To evaluate trend momentum and identify divergences which may indicate trend reversal, the MACD will be used.
Moving Averages:
The exchange rate prices are currently below the moving averages. The distance of the current price from the moving averages is not significant. Visualizing the results of the moving averages shows that the price trend, at the present time, does not evolve according to the main trend.
MACD:
The MACD is moving negatively in a downward trajectory, and its momentum is not satisfactory. Visualizing the MACD results does not show divergences between the MACD trajectory and the price trend. The existence of divergences could mean a potential reversal of the current price trend. The MACD results show that the price trend, at the present time, does not evolve in conjunction with the main trend.
The moving averages and MACD indicate that the possibility of placing a trade, at the current moment according to market conditions, carries high risk. This is concluded from the fact that the technical indicators, on the one hand, do not provide results that are in harmony with the prevailing price trend. On the other hand, they do not adequately describe the current market conditions.
Has EUR/USD Bottomed-Out???Here I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart!
Now we see Price on EU has made a sort of "Rounded Bottom" making its official LOW @ 1.06660
Now with Price struggling with the Resistance Zone @ ( 1.08441 - 1.08266 ) it is beginning to form what looks to be a Potential CUP & HANDLE PATTERN!!
This pattern after the completion of the "Bowl" is typically followed by the formation of the "Handle". This will be considered a HIGHER LOW which should be followed by Bullish momentum to the Top of the Cup (Resistance Zone) again, then to BREAK and possibly continue HIGHER!!
-The RSI is showing that price is Over-Bought which tells me we could see price needing to make a decline!
-Strengthening the Bullish Bias on this idea is also backed by the fact price is now trading ABOVE the 200 EMA!
*Before we can confirm this is a Cup & Handle Pattern, we must see Price make a retracement from this High to the ( 1.07751 - 1.07647 ) Range for potential BUY positions!
**If Price decides to Break Below our Fib Entry Zone, The potential Cup and Handle Pattern will be INVALIDATED!!
GBP/USD stages bullish break, March peak in sight?In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell when he appears before lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week is questionable. With Fed rate cut expectations growing as US data continues to soften, the path of least resistance looks lower in the near-term for the DXY.
Having broken above 1.2800 and closed there Friday, and successfully back tested the level again in early Asian trade today following the French election results, GBP/USD is one pair that may be able to capitalise on the buck’s bearish reversal in the days ahead.
Buying near these levels targeting the May high of 1.2894 is one potential setup, allowing for a stop loss order to be placed at 1.2790 for protection. You’re risking around 17 pips to make 87 pips. Resistance may be encountered around 1.2860, the high struck in June. Should GBP/USD fail to clear that level, consider taking profits on the trade.
While GBP/USD has not had a great track record above 1.2800, this bullish break comes with the USD on the backfoot and follows a successful break of downtrend resistance that thwarted other bullish moves earlier in the year. With it out of the way and momentum indicators like MACD and RSI providing bullish signals, upside looks easier than downside in the near-term.
DS
Shiba Inu SHIBA lot of folks asking about Shiba Inu at the moment. At this time on the above 2-day chart price action has broken from resistance that began in October 2021.
The question most want answered: Will Shiba (Bro..) pump 1000% like in 2021 from late September until late October? No idea. Anything is possible.
Is it probable? No. Why do I say that?
Let’s look left. Back 2021 there were certain conditions that printed specially on the 2-day chart. Those conditions were:
1) The BTC pair of the token
2) A strong buy signal
3) Strong bullish divergence. Huge.
4) Stochastic RSI was 50+ at the time of the above conditions.
Do all those conditions exist today? No.
Do those conditions exist on other tokens today? Yes.
Yes indeed. As a matter of fact there are 16 tokens currently listed on Binance printing those exact conditions. Two of them have already ‘popped’, GALA and SOL.
What are the other 14? Get this post to 500 likes and I’ll share them below!
Ww
Remember:
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio per position.
Timeframe: don’t know
Return: don't know
Centrica - bullish divergence*investment opportunity*
A 90% correction since 2014 and following oversold condition there now exists an excellent opportunity to buy this stock.
The 10-day chart above confirms a regular bullish divergence between price action and the oscillators + higher low in price action. This is the start of a trend reversal. Price action is now in the bullish half of the Bollinger band as the mouth is constricting, which suggests a big move is coming.
On the fundamentals Centrica engages in the provision of energy and supply services. There is no end of ‘bad news’ stories on the business. Pay no attention. The only news you need is the headlines in the charts, and they look amazing.
A buy above 42 is good. 1st target 115
2-month chart - broken RSI resistance following oversold condition:
3-month chart - bullish morning star + confirmation
ETH Poised for Post-ETF Approval Pullback: Short to 3.2k ZoneEthereum surged over 30% in anticipation of its much-awaited ETF approval, but the excitement may be short-lived. As traders who missed the initial rally eye the $2.9k to $3.2k support zone, a pullback seems likely. With ETH currently trading around $3.8k, a short trade to this support area presents an attractive opportunity.
Technical Analysis:
Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP): The VRVP indicates a significant volume zone at $3k, suggesting strong support at this level.
Average Directional Index (ADX): The ADX, a momentum indicator, is losing strength, signaling a weakening trend.
Proposed Short Trade:
Entry Price: 3.8k zone USDT
Take Profit: 3k zone USDT
Stop Loss: 4.110 USDT
Rationale:
The post-ETF approval euphoria is likely to fade, leading to a price correction.
The $2.9k to $3.2k zone represents a strong support area, as evidenced by the VRVP.
The weakening ADX suggests a loss of momentum in the uptrend.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
The potential risk-to-reward ratio for this trade is approximately 3:1, implying a potential 3% profit for every 1% risk.
H&SClose below $3.9 first signal of possible head & shoulder is in play with a target of $1.4 that coincides with horizontal support zone ($1.4-$2)
waiting to confirm a downwards bounce from $3.9
what speaks against continuation of move down is (if confirmed on daily close) Bullish Divergence on RSI / Priceaction and that volume is not high compared to previous priceaction
USD/JPY bullish reversal underway on the 4H timeframe?USD/JPY has printed a bullish reversal pattern on the 4H timeframe, bouncing off uptrend support in the process. And with horrible Japanese household spending data showing spending slumped 1.8% in the year to May against expectations for an increase of 0.1%, the likelihood of the BOJ delivering further near-term monetary policy tightening looks to be dimming fast.
Unless we see weak payrolls report later today, which has not been the case over much of the past year with it beating expectations on eight of 12 occasions, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains higher.
Buying here with a stop below the uptrend is an option targeting 1.61745 or the multi-decade peak of 161.952 set earlier in the week. Prior to the current candle, USD/JPY printed a morning star pattern that’s often seen at bullish turning points. RSI has also broken its downtrend, hinting at a potential shift in price momentum to the upside.
DS
FX Index Curve Oscillator (FICO)By constructing an index like TVC:DXY for each of the 8 major currencies, we can determine which currencies may be showing relative strength or weakness. This indicator was designed for trading FX on the daily charts. Other timeframes should work with the right settings, but it will not work for other asset types .
AUD - Yellow
CAD - Red
CHF - Orange
EUR - Purple
GBP - Green
JPY - White
NZD - Lime green
USD - Blue
The US Dollar Index is constructed by taking a weighted average of a basket of currencies against the USD in order to gauge it's relative strength. We can actually construct a similar chart by simply taking the product of several currencies against the USD; it won't have the same values of course, but the chart's general shape (peaks and valleys) are approximately the same. This technique can be applied to other currencies, which is the premise of this indicator.
The default settings seem to work "okay" for the daily chart. The lookback and oscillator are probably the biggest variables to change if you move to different timeframes.
Some ideas on how to use this indicator:
Using crossovers for a particular currency pair:
Using color changes for a currency pair (one bright, one dark):
Waiting for values to cross +/- 1.000 and change color:
As above, but using all the currency indexes, and finding opposing pairs to trade:
GBP/USD : Key Levels and Trading Strategies for Upcoming Moves📅 Let's get into today's analysis. I've decided to focus more on Forex analyses, and today we're analyzing the GBP/USD pair with the main timeframe being weekly. I'll be looking at the chart solely from a technical analysis perspective.
🔍 In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, after breaking the 1.31915 resistance level, bullish momentum entered the market, and we managed to move up to the 1.42385 resistance level. After this sharp upward movement, the market entered a correction phase and corrected down to 1.20670. Currently, the price is ranging between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.31915 resistance. I believe that until the SMA99 reaches the price, new bullish momentum could enter the market, and you can confirm this momentum by a break above 1.31915. If the candle closes below the 0.382 Fibonacci level, we might move down to the Golden Zone of Fibonacci, which lies between 0.5 and 0.618.
🧩 There is also a minor trend line that the price has reacted to three times so far, which could be a key determinant for future price movements.
🧲 Regarding the SMA99, it has the property of creating significant distances when the market is trending. However, it eventually acts like a black hole, pulling the price towards it. This is happening after the rejection at 1.42385, and I believe the price will range until it meets the SMA99. Additionally, this SMA acts as a support and resistance level, potentially supporting the price once it reaches it and pushing the price upward.
📈 For a long position on the weekly timeframe, it seems appropriate to wait for a break of the trend line and a confirmation above the 1.31915 area. The target for this move, based on Fibonacci extension, could be 1.42385. However, this target is quite high, and if the price aims to reach it, it will likely be a long-term move.
📉 For a short position, breaking below 1.20670 serves as a good trigger. If the price stabilizes below this level, it might move down to the area between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. This position is quite risky as the High Wave Cycle for GBP/USD is bullish, and this move in the Low Wave Cycle could be filled with noise.
📈 For shorter-term positions, it's better to look at the 4-hour timeframe. In this timeframe, we have a long-term range box and a significant support area at the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. There’s no need to extend the analysis here; I’ll just discuss the entry triggers.
📈 For long positions, we have three different triggers. The first trigger is at 1.2776, which is the riskiest one with a target of 1.31915. The next trigger is at 1.31915 with a target of 1.42385. The final trigger is at 1.42385.
📉 For short positions, there's a very risky position with a trigger at 1.2615, and the second trigger is the break of the support area.
♟ Now, let me explain how I personally trade with each trigger. For the long trigger at 1.2776, I open positions in lower timeframes such as the 1-hour chart and set a small stop loss to quickly reach a risk-reward ratio of 2, which is my first target, with minimal risk. For the 1.31915 trigger, I open a position with normal risk and a regular stop loss size. For the 1.42385 trigger, I open a position with a larger stop loss because the trigger is at an all-time high (ATH) and represents a very strong supply zone. For short positions, I do not open any until the price stabilizes below the support area.
📝 In summary, GBP/USD is currently in a ranging phase between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.31915 resistance level. Depending on the break above 1.31915 or below 1.20670, there are opportunities for long or short positions, respectively. For those trading in shorter timeframes, key entry triggers and careful risk management are essential to navigate the market effectively.
🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in Forex trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Trade with indicatorsFX:GBPUSD
This indicator is currently optimized for gbpusd currency pair in 1 hour time frame and we are optimizing for other currency pairs in other time frames.
You can contact us to participate in the pre-purchase of this indicator and use the 2-year support
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Why I Think GBPUSD Will Continue to Buy This WeekHey Rich Friends,
I know its NFP Week, but we can still make smart trades by sticking to our plans. Be mindful, but do not trade with fear. I think that GU will continue to buy this week and here is why:
- The market has already rejected the previous demand zone.
- The 3 EMA (blue) has crossed above the 10 EMA (purple). This is a strong bullish confirmation for me
- The stochastic is facing up, the fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange) and both lines are above 50. This is a strong bullish confirmation for me.
- I will set my TPs at previous highs and my SL at a previous low
Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Remember to check the news and cross-reference the indicators that you have on your chart.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend.
It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage).
1) Bollinger Bands
2) Logarithmic View
3) Super Trend
4) Moving Averages + RSI
Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend!
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BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD