SNR (minor Orderblock) - EntryAUDCHF is showing an interesting point where price has broke structure as support and price reached as pull back to retest zone. Reason on why i think it will become a resistence zone
It has shown minor rejections on the small TF
Divergence trend had begun on the BOS. Now i think it will continue (After the pull back)
Reasons why I doubt it it's because it has a stronger move on higher TF
and price seem to hold the top of the zone (Orderblock)
Orderblock
Everything you need to know about order block 5 RULES | TUTORIALToday we're going to talk about orderblocks. Very simply, an orderblock is the support and resistance of big players. It is stronger and more important than what you draw on a chart expecting a price reaction by classical technical analysis.
This works absolutely everywhere in cryptocurrency, forex, and the stock market.
I have deduced for myself 5 rules of confirmation, and now we will go over each of them. Let's start with schemes and end with an example on a chart.
Orderblock is a candlestick that shows purchases or sales of large capital. When a bullish orderblock is formed, an accumulation or reaccumulation takes place in order to further markup the asset. When a bearish orderblock is formed, a short position is accumulated or reaccumulated. With the purpose of further asset markdown.
The first rule is liquidity.
We have a zone from which the price gets a reaction and goes in the opposite direction. This forms a support zone for those who trade classic technical analysis. Traders place their orders in this zone, which is what the big capital hunts for.
Accordingly, this level is pierced by the flow of orders, which activates these stops.
This is how liquidity is removed from the area.
The last bearish full-body candle will be our orderblock. It is important that it updates past lows. An analogy would be the wicks of candle, which removes liquidity from past lows. The wick of a candle in this case is an orderblock on a lower TF.
The second rule is confirmation
After withdrawal of liquidity we expect confirmation of this orderblock - that is absorption and movement in the opposite direction.
The confirmation should be impulsive. That is, we should not see how the price is stuck in this confirmation. It concerns the absorption (updating) of the order block. It is possible inside the candle (orderblock). But personally, I try to take the "book variant".
Local consolidations can indicate the weakness of the movement. It doesn't mean that the orderblock will not work out in the end, but the probability decreases.
The third rule is structure breaking (bos)
One of the key points is the breakdown of structure that this orderblock provides. This is how we can understand the mood of the market and the intentions of big capital.
In this example, we can highlight the main structure with the yellow line. It is after updating a significant structural element that we can be almost sure of the truth of our orderblock.
If we don't see a break in structure, then this movement may just be a correction within a downtrend. So keep an eye on this one.
The fourth rule is the law of force (momentum)
After confirming our orderblock, we can see a prolonged correction in the OTE (make a Fibo). That is, we should see an impulse and after it a slow sluggish movement downwards, which will also form liquidity behind each local high. This is not a necessary factor, but if it is present, the probability of a trend reversal will increase many times over.
The fifth rule - the volume and spread of candles
The candlesticks should be full-bodied with increased volumes. It will be important to monitor the "distance" that the price has done. All these factors will also indicate the veracity of the movement. This recommendation concerns more about swing trading, moments when the price is in a trend for a long time without a serious correction and test of the formed order block.
Examples on the chart
On the daily TF I marked a Sell to Buy move. I marked it this way because there were no warrant blocks to satisfy me on the higher timeframe. This area will act as a zone of interest.
The structure on the Hourly TF looks like this. Consequently, we expect a confirmation of our orderblock through a break of the structure. The price entered the sell to buy zone and tested the order block, which was formed from the wick of the candle.
We saw an impulse exit and watch the price go up sluggishly, forming liquidity behind each low. Therefore, we expect an orderblock test.
I recommend backtesting on chart history to better understand how order block works. Thank you for your attention, I hope it was useful
#GBPUSD - GO LONG AFTER THE FALL? - *SMT**SMT = smart money theory = see relasted tutoprial regarding what smart money is. Sm,art money is how the charts can be manipulated, and how y0ourself can be manipulated into believing a false sense technical analysis.
With the price dropping in one day what iyt gained over the course of the week. The price has dropped below sell side liquidity levels, but to remain bullish needs to stay above a CERTAIN BULLISH ORDER BLOCK LEVEL, otherwise we could see the price turn right back around and go down for GBP, but I think the BOE will be quicker to adapt to the FED knowing the consequences now. S I would guesss that it is moving up into the the hourly fvg and then will get rejected above the premium by smart money, amnd that point it dips a little further, as to where y09ou can enter a second time afgter taking profit the first time around 1.22665 Enter again near 1.21420 if possible and continue to ride this up to 1.26090 to be safe.
I have two entries
both at 1.21420
First one reaches what is said above and you take your fiorst profit there, it could slip back down to the entrance or even further, into a small fair value gap below which I have prepared for on the second entry,. and ther stop losses at 1.21120 & 1.20525
the second run with the deeper stop loss also has a much larger target at 1.26090 ner the top of the bearish order block. the R:R is 6:1 and 5:1 respectively, so if this woprks out t he way I ho [e it doers in the next week or two, 10% can be added top the account if played correctly.
I was once the smarrt money student who has become an instructor. Let's Hope my intuitions are correct about thias.
With that said if you hit the first take profit but go out on the second sdtop loss, you should still be at a winning ratio. It's about how to grow yojur account. Everyday you won't hit a homerun. But if y0ou hold the bat long enough, the ball will go far.
Cheers, Good Luck and Good trading.
EUR/GBP: Best order block to sell in the smart point!!!Euro/Pound look interesting to short in this analysis what we can to be relax to hope that Euro climb to 0.8616 GBP level and watch if this zone will be the starting of the drop in this analysis that I view.
I mark the best order block to sell in the smart point in the gray rectangle that cover this zone to sell here.
This could be a nice analysis that may to develop here in the next hour to wait.
I hope that this analysis support you if you want to trade Euro/Pound in your trading week.
Good luck!!!
USDJPY Short From H1 Supply Zone ( + 3,7 RR)A clean trade on US Dollar vs Japanese Yen was taken on December 5th and here is it's full breakdown:
We see an example of Drop-Base-Drop market movement. We took a Base of this movement as an Supply zone and went into shorts with the goal at the local low, because:
1) Fibo discount level (0.62)
2) Clean supply zone
3) Correlator DXY was showing short signal too
4) Supply zone on a resistance level
5) Imbalance to fill in
6) Price tapped the zone on a EU session
7) RSI divergence on M30
The TP wasn't lower due to the premium zone and more imbalance laying above. Typically, we wouldn't take this trade due to this factor, but all 7 reasons were solid and we were right.
If you like such type of content with explanation, like this post and leave a comment!
EUR/AUD: smart bought in the reaction points!!!Euro/Australian Dollar look bullish from this point that I identify a possible nice opportunity to get so much pips in this only trade.
As first, in Daily timeframe EUR/AUD forming a bullish channel perspective that could to continue climb until $1.5920 AUD. Also, the candlestick it's appear that still bullish.
In H4 timeframe we are in the smart zone in the $1.5551 AUD that price it's just make reaction in this zone to find down new buyers to long position. And also, I make some correlations that I draw a order block and a diagonal point line that work like support and maybe, if in H4 timeframe closed up with a bullish signal. We can to see a strength in this par.
And finally, we're in H2 timeframe here in this analysis, and we see that that EUR look strength than Aussie. So guys, we see a nice opportunity here to bought!!
Good luck!!!
[EW] All of the possible Scenarios for Bitcoin!#BTCUSDT #Daily #ElliottWave #Tommy
- Hello dear traders from all over the world! It’s Tommy. It’s been quite a while since I uploaded any contents on EN server. Due to countless issues in Crypto industry as well as the macroeconomic status concerning us about inflation and recession at the same time, BTC recently broke previous low around 17k making a new significant low around 15.4k. Now is the time for us to update our TA perspectives on BTC by deriving new supports, resistances, top, bottom and target prices. Let us look at some possible future scenarios in terms of Elliott Wave Theory.
- My first scenario indicates that the high(65k) born on April 2021 is the end of an impulsive cycle, corrective waves right after being the expanded flat. This then implies that the historical high at 69k is the end of flat wave B which exceeds previous wave 5 within an impulsive wave. We know that the flat corrective structure follows 3-3-5 zigzag rather than 5-3-5. Accordingly, the whole bearish wave structure was to be considered as red wave C composed of 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag.
- Scenario A1 says that the downward impulsive green wave 5 within red wave C is ongoing right now. In this case, the current structure is most likely the downward impulsive black wave 3 or upward corrective black wave 4. Ending diagonal green wave 5 is also to be on the list, especially if either the black upward wave 4 retraces wave 3 deeper than expected or black downward wave 3 has already ended around 15k. Some of the considerable supports and resistances in this scenario are 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k, and 17.7k~18.5k. This scenario becomes invalid if BTC breaks above 21.5k.
- Black wave B or C of upward corrective green wave 4 of red wave C is where we are right now according to scenario A2. This case expects BTC to break the downward channel above followed by decent bullish trend and then another strong rejection making a notable swing low after. Black wave 2 has also been regarded as some kind of flat structure. This very wave counting is off the list if BTC breaks above 33k, the end of green wave 1 after escaping the black parallel channel. If I were to be a bit more bullish, I can target the end of green wave 4 at 22.9k~23.7k and 27.4k~28.2k based on some technical components such as widening pattern(disjoint channel), 0.382 retracement level of downward cycle, and the horizontal volume profile, etc.
- Rather than expanded flat described as above, regular correction with 5-3-5 zigzag was chosen on scenario B. I believe this very wave counting is so far the most popular one among the Elliott Wave traders globally. This case refers that the end of impulsive cycle has been completed at the historical high at 69k which then would be the end of impulsive red wave 5. Therefore 5-3-5 zigzag was implied on this whole falling wave structure starting from 69k. Well, then we are currently on green wave 4 or 5 within red wave C.
- Similar to A1, B1 also regarded 25k high formed on August 2022 as the end of upward correction considering the falling wave structure right after as impulsive green wave 5. The chart below described the latest bearish waves as the black wave 3 within green wave 5 whether the 18k low is end of black wave 1 or running flat black wave B. The possibility of ending diagonal green wave 5 as well as the target prices (supports and resistances) are pretty much the same as A1’s. Retracing more than 21.5k that are thought to be the beginning of black wave 3, contradicts this scenario’s reliability.
- B2 is also quite the same as A2 but the degrees of waves are different. This scenario implies flat correction as well and black wave C can be targeted at 22.9k~23.7k (Running flat) and 27.4k~28.2k (Expanded flat). Frankly, considering the proportion, this counting might be a little off the track when second target is reached.
- From here, double three XWY corrective structure has been adapted on the falling wave that starts at the historical high. The dead cat bounce looking alike wave from 33k to 48k is then regarded as a wave failure, X. After the red wave X, the whole parts of the falling wave then fit into ABC 5-3-5, not the 12345 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. I could say this scenario is far most the bullish comparing to A and B.
- Starting from C1, this case considers the horizontal volumes formed around 30k as green wave B dividing this very wave into ABC 5-3-5 zigzag. Weighting more on the flow that downward green wave C is starting from 25k high and splitting inner wave as 5-3-5-3-5, this scenario expects that the bears are almost finished and even though BTC shows another swing low in the future, it’s not going to be that bad. The worst specific case within this scenario would be making a final bottom at 13.4k~14.1k before bullish phase takes in place.
- C2 is just a tiny bit less bullish than C1, where downward ending diagonal green wave C with a huge black wave 1 is considered. It surely is too early to expect ending diagonal green wave 5 currently, but monitoring major highs and lows to keep track on the new significant trendlines that are to be appeared seems integral. The worst possible case would be BTC reaching the 1:1 projection level of green wave A and B, which is around 10.8k~11.8k.
- Last but not least, triple double three WXYXZ correction counting has been conducted in this scenario since those of some impatient traders are starting to address another wave failure X. This wave counting describes another wave X after WXY thus regarding another ABC 5-3-5 zigzag starting from 25k high.
- According to D1, 22.8k high is a starting point of a downward impulsive green wave C interpreted as 5-3-5-3-5. Honestly, assuming the downward black impulsive wave cycle started much later is not my number one scenario. Anyhow, the target price ranges of red wave Z are around 13.4k~14.1k and 10.8k~11.8k.
- Also considering WYXYZ correction, D2 implies that the green wave b within red wave C is taking place right now. Similarly, green wave B then can be regarded as either expanded or running flat which then can target 17.7k~18.5k and 22.9k~23.7k. Just like A2 and B2, this scenario also expects bulls to come in shorter term before another huge drop in longer term.
(Summary)
Supports: 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k. 7.4k~8.4k
Resistances: 17.7k~18.5k, 22.9k~23.7k, 27.4k~28.2k
Tops(Prices that bulls should break above): 22.8k, 25k , 29k
$dYdX -Hit Top of Daily Bearish Order Block- Now Retracing *SMTSMT = See related idea on the analysis of what Smart Money Theory is.
$dYdX seems to be the only crypto worth trading at the moment. As it hit the top of the Daily bearish order block and started reversing. Wick may have went through each side on the 4 hour but two four hour candles closed inside below the median of the Daily bearish order block . This is bearish movement.
So I have two take profits. The first is within the huge 4 hour Fair Value gap below.
Entry 2.441
Take Profit 1 - 2.068 (Top of Breaker)
Take Profit 2 - 1.946 (Bottom of Breaker)
Stop loss - CLOSES ABOVE 2.538 on the1 hour I don't play the stop loss game unless I'm Not going to pay attention and what matters on a stop loss is the close not
We'll See what happens. But thats my educated guess. Usually, Smart Money teaches me right. (See related Idea Bitcoin- last short
BREAKOUT + ORDER BLOCK + BREAK & RETESTPrice broke out of the range, touched the bearish order block and is heading back to the range. There is a possibility that price might enter the range again. I am already in a sell from entry 1(the higher entry). If price enters back into the range, you can choose to sell at entry 2(the lower entry) after a break and retest of the range. Good luck.
Entry 2 - 1.33238
SL - 1.33648
TP - 1.32418
DXY| ON A BEARISH ASSIGNMENT We have started seeing the smart money footprint on their interest to short the USD ever since when we mitigated the Monthly overall bearish order block.
the smartmoney already edged and are now preparing to go even more lower to take out long term sellside liquidity that has been accumulated.
StefanFX ...