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WE GOT A 5/5 TRADE SETUP ON MBLY. LARGE MOVE INCOMING! NASDAQ:MBLY 🖐️WE GOT A 5/5 TRADE SETUP ON MOBILEYE. My trading strategy consists of 5 Indicators: 1.) A clear and clean Charting pattern setup. ✔️For this chart that is a symmetrical pattern. 2.) A Volume Gap to fill and strong buying area. ✔️ Clearly sitting on a large "Volume shelf" - JW 3.) The MACD up trending. Crossing Zero line=Bullish ✔️ We are indeed up trending and a Zero line crossing is imminent for this chart. 4.) Stochastic rising and making higher lows. ✔️ Up trending and just crossed the middle RSI band. Higher lows are being made on this chart. 5.) Weekly Stochastic Up Trend. Most bullish once it crosses up through lower band or down through upper band. ✔️ Clearly had a red through yellow flip and are up trending on this charts stochastic heading toward Lower band. Bonus: We are staying above the 50MA and about to have the 25MA cross upward through the 50MA as well (BULLISH Signal). Finally, I've been following this stock for awhile now and every market open we get a massive amount of short volume in order to try and drive down the stock and get the 20% of shareholders who aren't NASDAQ:INTC to sell them their shares for them to cover at lower prices. I hope you enjoyed it! Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂 NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:ENPH NASDAQ:SBUX NYSE:MCD #Stock #stocks #Stockmarket #EarningsReport #TradingTips #investing #investingideas
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by RonnieV29
18
Options: Why the Odds Are Stacked Against YouThe Hidden Challenges of Options Trading: Options trading may seem like an exciting way to profit from market movements, but beneath the surface lies a trading environment that is heavily biased against individual traders. Many retail investors jump into options trading unaware of the many disadvantages they face, making it more of a gamble than a calculated investment. In this post, we’ll explore the major challenges that make options trading so difficult for individual traders and why you need more than luck to succeed. 1. The Odds Are Biased: Complex Algorithms Unlevel the Playing Field The first thing to understand is that the playing field is not even. Professional traders and market makers use complex algorithms that evaluate a wide range of factors—volatility, market conditions, historical data, time decay, news and more—before they even think about entering a trade. These systems are designed to assess risks, manage exposure, and execute trades with a precision that most individual traders simply can’t match. For an individual trader, manually analyzing these factors or using basic tools available online is nearly impossible. By the time you’ve analyzed one factor, the market may have already shifted. The reality is that unless you have access to these advanced algorithmic systems, you're trading with a massive handicap. 2. Market Makers Hold the Upper Hand: Your Trades Are Their Game Market makers play a critical role in options trading by providing liquidity. However, they also hold an unbeatable advantage. They see both sides of the trade, control the bid-ask spreads, and use their position to ensure they’re on the winning side more often than not. For them, it’s not about making speculative bets; it’s about managing risk and profiting from the flow of orders they receive. When you trade options, you're often trading against these market makers, and their strategies are designed to maximize their advantage while minimizing their risk. This means your trades are, in essence, a bad gamble from the start. The house always wins, and in this case, the house is the market maker. 3. They Will Fool You Every Time: Bid-Ask Spreads and the Math You Don’t See One of the most overlooked challenges in options trading is understanding the bid-ask spread. This spread represents the difference between the price you can buy an option (ask) and the price you can sell it (bid). While this may seem straightforward, it’s an area where professionals easily outsmart retail traders. Advanced traders and market makers use complex mathematical models to manage and manipulate these spreads to their advantage. If you don’t have the mathematical skills to properly evaluate whether the spread is fair or skewed, you’re setting yourself up to overpay for options, leading to unnecessary losses. 4. Information and Tools: A Professional-Only Advantage Another critical challenge is the vast difference in information and tools available to retail traders versus professionals. Institutional traders have access to data streams, proprietary tools, and execution platforms that the average trader can only dream of. They can monitor market sentiment, analyze volatility in real-time, and execute trades at lightning speed, often milliseconds faster than any retail investor. These tools give professionals an enormous edge in identifying trends, hedging positions, and managing risk. Without them, individual traders are flying blind, trying to compete in an arena where the best information is reserved for the pros. 5. Volatility and Time Decay: The Ultimate Account Killers Two of the most critical factors in options trading are volatility and time decay (known as theta). These are the silent killers of options accounts, and pros use them to their advantage. Volatility: When volatility increases, option prices go up, which might sound great. However, volatility is unpredictable, and when it swings in the wrong direction, it can destroy your position’s value almost overnight. Professionals have sophisticated strategies to manage and hedge against volatility; most individual traders don’t. Time Decay: Time is constantly working against you in options trading. Every day that passes, the value of an option slowly erodes, and as expiration approaches, this decay accelerates. For most retail traders, this is a ticking time bomb. Pros, on the other hand, know how to structure trades to profit from time decay, leaving amateurs at a disadvantage. Conclusion: Trading Options Is No Easy Game The challenges of options trading are real and significant. Between the advanced algorithms, the market makers’ advantages, the mathematical complexities of bid-ask spreads, and the tools and information reserved for professionals, the odds are stacked against you. Add to that the constant threat of volatility and time decay, and it’s clear that options trading is a difficult and often losing game for individual traders. If you’re thinking about jumping into options trading, it’s crucial to understand the risks involved and recognize that the deck is stacked. To succeed, you need more than just a basic understanding—you need tools, strategy, and a deep awareness of how the pros operate. Without that, you're gambling, not trading.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by CF_444
MIDCPNIFTY Hits 3 Targets in Short Trade – TP4 Awaiting!In this short trade on the MIDCPNIFTY, three targets have already been met, reaching up to TP3 at 12605.25. We are currently watching for TP4 at 12499.35 to be achieved. Key Levels Entry: 13053.70 – A strong bearish signal triggered this short entry. Stop-Loss (SL): 13139.35 – Positioned above the entry to protect from upward movements. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 12947.85 – Achieved as part of the initial downward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 12776.55 – Hit following sustained selling pressure. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 12605.25 – Reached as bearish momentum continues. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 12499.35 – The final target, currently awaited. Trend Analysis The price remains comfortably below the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming a strong downward trend. Three targets have already been hit, and further downward momentum could see TP4 being reached.
NSE:MIDCPNIFTY1!Short
by ProfitsNinja
1
LCRX RETURNS TO THE SEEN OF THE CRIMENASDAQ:LRCX returning to the seen of the CRIME! ☕️ LCRX is retesting the Cup N Handle BREAKOUT FROM 2023! 🤯 LRCX has already tested and bounced off of its Cup n Handle breakout from 2023 twice and is forming the right shoulder of a shorter-term inverse H&S pattern! Will it bounce again?! Drop a comment below. The risk/reward ratio on this one is crazy good, IMO! It's going to take something drastic for that CupnHandle breakout support to bust! My Short Term PT for this chart is: 🎯$80 My Long Term PT for this chart is: 🎯$107 Not financial advice! 🖖
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by RonnieV29
10
IBM International Business Machines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought IBM before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of IBM International Business Machines prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-3-21, for a premium of approximately $8.35. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:IBMLong
by TopgOptions
1
Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment. Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further. 🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists. 🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure. While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level. 🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. 🟨 Time Spread Strategies The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums. 🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies. ⅀ QQQ Summary The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TanukiTrade
4
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade
BankNifty Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: Strong MomentumWe entered a long trade on BankNifty at 51155.90 on the 11th of October at 2:30 pm. The price has shown solid upward movement, and we have now set a trailing stop at 51,250 to lock in gains as we aim for higher targets. Target Points: TP 1: 51248.60 (hit) TP 2: 51398.65 TP 3: 51548.70 TP 4: 51641.40 Trailing Stop: 51,250 Stop Loss (SL): 51080.85 The bullish trend remains strong, and we will continue monitoring the position for further developments as it approaches the remaining targets.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by ProfitsNinja
Armageddon after the election, huh?Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up. The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar. Such synchronicity has historically led to powerful corrections, and something tells me that it will not be the Dollar. Now, I ain't saying we should all go out and start selling stocks like never before. But what I am sayin' is that maybe, just maybe, we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Maybe the market's got some more room to run, and maybe we should be lookin' for opportunities to get in on the action. So, yeah, the option sentiment's looking a little bearish, but that don't mean we should all be running for the hills just yet. Let's keep our cool, do our research, and see what the market's got in store for us.
CBOT:ZNZ2024
by ClashChartsTeam
TIGR UP Fintech Holding Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TIGR before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TIGR UP Fintech Holding Limited prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $0.72. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:TIGRLong
by TopgOptions
Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) Earnings Preview: Breakout or Breakdown?Domino's Pizza ( NYSE:DPZ ) is set to release its Q3 FY2024 earnings on October 10, pre-market, with expectations of an EPS of $3.62 and revenue around $1.1 billion. The stock is currently sitting at the 200-day EMA on the weekly chart, indicating a critical technical range. While market sentiment leans bearish, a surprise in earnings could trigger a sharp move. Key levels to watch: Bullish: Target above $445 on a breakout. Bearish: Watch for a move toward $385 if earnings disappoint. Implied volatility is currently at 7.5%, suggesting significant potential for post-earnings movement. Stay tuned for the market’s reaction! #DPZ #Earnings #Options #Investing #Solidified
NYSE:DPZ
by Solidified
$META Wedge Breakout Setup with Key Targets AheadNASDAQ:META is attempting a wedge breakout on the session hourly, with a candle confirmation above the 9-EMA. If the breakout holds, our first target is a retest of $594.24. Should we break that, we’re looking at a potential retest of the all-time high (ATH) at $602.90. However, if the breakout fails, we could see a retest of key support levels at $588.36 and $583.14. On the daily chart, we’re seeing a hammer candle after retesting support, alongside a 2-1-3 pattern that could signal continued momentum.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Solidified
Recent Trends in Crypto Options MarketWell, he crypto options market is experiencing a surge in growth, driven by increasing adoption and maturation. Key trends include short-term turbulence versus long-term growth, with a focus on short volatility on elections and long positions on new all-time highs by the end of the year. Whale Activity Whales are taking a protectionist approach, with a focus on long-term optimism: Puts: $40K is the most popular strike price, with 2562.5 contracts Focus: November 8, 2024, and March 28, 2025 Calls: Bets on FWB:65K -$100K by the end of the year Currently: Selling volatility at 60K-65K (November 8) Retail Activity Retail traders are taking an aggressive approach, with a focus on optimism: Puts: Weak protection $60K-$61K (October 2024) Calls: Focus on $95K-$100K (December 2024) Summary Short-term Turbulence vs Long-term Growth: The crypto options market is experiencing short-term turbulence, but long-term growth is expected. Long on New ATH: Whales are taking long positions on new all-time highs by the end of the year. Data Source for Analysis: Deribit
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ClashChartsTeam
NIFTY Short Mastery on 15m Time Frame: 940 Points SecuredOn the 30th of September, we initiated a short entry at 25996.85 using the Risological Swing Trader, capturing a robust downtrend as the price continued to respect our dotted trendline indicator. To date, this strategy has delivered a significant 940 points in profit, exemplifying the effectiveness of our approach. Target Points: TP 1: 25823.50 TP 2: 25543.00 TP 3: 25262.50 TP 4: 25089.15 Stop Loss (SL): 26137.10 The Risological Swing Trader has once again proven its strength in spotting market reversals, allowing us to secure substantial gains. We will stay vigilant as we approach the reversal.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ProfitsNinja
2
FINNIFTY Short: 1450 Points Secured with RisologicalFINNIFTY Short: 1450 Points Secured with Risological Swing Trader Massive Short Entry Captured on 27 Sep with Risological Swing Trader On the 27th of September, we secured a powerful short entry at 25099.95 using the Risological Swing Trader, aligning perfectly with the downtrend as indicated by our proprietary trendline. Since the entry, we've bagged an impressive 1450 points as the price action continues to confirm our strategy's precision. Target Points: TP 1: 24976.95 TP 2: 24777.90 TP 3: 24578.90 TP 4: 24455.90 Stop Loss (SL): 25199.50 This setup showcases the strength of Risological Swing Trader in identifying trend reversals and executing trades with pinpoint accuracy. We will continue to monitor this position as it edges closer to our final targets.
NSE:FINNIFTY1!Short
by ProfitsNinja
Weekly $SPY Options SPY Options to Kick off October Election is less than a month away. Investors are taking profit and repositioning defensively until after the election noise. VIX over $21. We’re still just 3% off from all-time highs. The next catalysts are rate cuts, job numbers, and earnings. We expect volatility until the election noise settles. This week, we are leaning bearish to start the week. However, the upside trade has the most room for continuation. We are using 15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation. Best of luck! $569 Call 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation OVER $568 Targets: $569, $571, $574 $565 Put 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation UNDER $568 Target: $565 AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois