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Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136. Last Week We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap. Plan for the Week Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall. Economic Events April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations. April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance. May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary. Bonds Update 2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494% 30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831% Support Levels 4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major). Resistance Levels 4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191. Summary In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
$CVNA-Regular Divergence Indicates Potential Bearish OpportunityCarvana ( NYSE:CVNA ), the innovative online used car retailer, has recently shown signs of a regular bearish divergence on its chart, indicating a potential reversal in its current trend. With an identified entry, stop loss, and take profit points, we could be looking at a shorting opportunity here. Technical Indicators: The regular bearish divergence, circled in yellow on the chart, suggests a weakening in the current uptrend. This pattern is often a sign of a potential upcoming bearish phase, making it an opportunity for short sellers. Trade Setup: Here's a potential trading setup based on the current technical indicators: - Entry Price: 12.56 - Stop Loss: 13.70 - Take Profit 1: 10.77 - Take Profit 2: 9.13 This setup offers a good risk to reward ratio. The stop loss is set above the recent swing high, limiting potential losses if the price unexpectedly rises. The two take profit points allow for managing the trade more efficiently, taking some profit at the first target and letting the rest run if the price continues to move favorably. Options Play: For those interested in options, a Put option expiring on May 19th with a strike price of $10 could be a potential play. This would gain value if NYSE:CVNA stock price decreases, aligning with the bearish divergence. NYSE:CVNA current technical setup suggests a potential bearish opportunity. However, as always, it's essential to manage risk effectively and ensure the trade aligns with your overall trading strategy. *Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always do your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making investment decisions.*
NYSE:CVNAShort
by TicksandWicks22
WISH Continuation of Momentum LONGWISH had a great day to finish out this past trading week. On the 15-minute day, two highs are drawn as horizontal resistance using the high candles with the wicks as "tweezer tops" while the support is drawn as a green line at a pair of "tweezer bottoms" I see this as a bullish continuation play for next week. A stop loss is set below the support line at $8.30 with a buy order placed at $.05 above the current market. Targets are $.05 below each of the resistance lines with an approximate reward to risk of 15X. This is a volatile small cap with the typical high-risk and high-reward scenario. I will take call options at the strike $ 7.5 for expiration on 5/5 expecting a return on risk of at least 75% leveraging the expected return on a similar stock trade.
WLong
by AwesomeAvani
1