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October 26, 2024! Xau! Cow marketGold price increased slightly on Friday after recovery after profit -taking due to tensions in the Middle East and worried about the election in the United States that supported the price, while the palladium price expanded to the highest level in 10. month. The monetary loosening policy of large central banks is also a factor to promote gold prices. According to CME's Fedwatch Tool, the market expected 97% of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the November meeting, helping to support gold prices. Technically: The main and long -term trend is still increasing the price on almost all time frames. On the other hand, before the weekend gold price has a spectacular breakthrough from the resistance level 2740, this shows the significant power of the ruling faction. In addition, technical factors also support gold prices, promoting the purchase of markets of the market will continue without any significant reversal. Thereby, has expected the upward trend to continue, capable of achieving high levels of about $ 2758 earlier. Currently this pair of money is fluctuating about $ 2747 and close to the psychological threshold of $ 2750.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Gold waiting for new waves: The opportunity to grow this weekHello everyone, What are your thoughts on gold prices? Let’s discuss and strategize together today! Looking back at last week, despite facing strong profit-taking pressure after reaching a new record high, gold demonstrated its resilience and ended the week around $30 higher than the previous week’s close. As of early Monday, it is trading near 2733 and performing well within an upward channel on the 1-hour chart. Key factors impacting gold this week: Gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility this week as the market anticipates several crucial data releases, including the U.S. jobs report on Friday morning. Currently, economists predict 140,000 new jobs for September, a notable decrease from August’s 254,000. Investors are also watching for Q3 growth data, pending home sales, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision, core PCE index, personal income and spending for September, and weekly jobless claims. These data points will provide investors with more clues about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy direction, which could impact gold’s trajectory. Outlook for XAUUSD: On the 1-hour chart, as Ben mentioned earlier, XAUUSD currently has strong support around the 2725 level. A break below this level could lead to a significant price drop, while maintaining it would support further gains. Upon close observation, it’s evident that the pair is gaining upward momentum from the trendline, and a recently opened gap has bolstered buying sentiment. If the upward momentum continues, the next resistance targets for XAUUSD are 2747 and 2758.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout. From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk. 2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside. Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup. 3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs. The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms. 4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025) To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics: o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures): Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick) Point value of 1 future unit: $50 Point value of 1 option unit: $50 Expiration: December 27, 2024 Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760). o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024. The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760 This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures. o Risk Management: While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread. 5. Options Risk Profile Analysis The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration: Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration. Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move. For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets. 6. Trade Execution Plan Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout. Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point. 7. Risk Management Considerations Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages: Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread. No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market. Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups. This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZWH2025Education
by traddictiv
2
GBP/USD Today: Short Term Trend ForecastHello dear friends, a new week has come, wish you lots of energy! Currently, the GBP/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.2965 and performing well in the downward price channel on the 1-hour chart. The main reason is that the market is witnessing economic stability in both the UK and the US, as retail sales in both countries exceeded expectations, indicating quite strong consumer spending. In addition, inflation in the UK has dropped to 1.7%, below the Bank of England's target, increasing the possibility of a rate cut in the near future, directly affecting this currency pair. Wishing you successful trading and good luck in the market!
Short
by Bentradegold
1
EURUSD: Should I Buy?Hello everyone! Overall, EUR/USD is slightly down for the second day in a row, trading around 1.0780 on Monday morning. Looking at the daily chart, you can see that the pair is testing the upper boundary to return to the descending channel pattern. This could reinforce the bearish bias for the pair. However, there are signs of a potential bottom forming at 1.0760. Furthermore, using the Fibonacci retracement of the first wave, if the rally continues, the next recovery points for EURUSD would be 0.382 (price level 1.085) - 0.618 (price level 1.093) - 0.5 (price level 1.098).
Long
by Bentradegold
What October 25th's Options Portfolio Tells Us About the YenOur analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods. From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5 cases, the quotes tend to hang around the Straddle boundaries and often bounce off them. A recent example? August 5th—prices hit the upper limit at 149.20 (that’s the spot quote) and then bounced back nicely, giving savvy traders a sweet opportunity to jump into a short position on the dollar with a solid risk/reward ratio. So, what's the takeaway here? Use those Straddle boundaries to open positions in the spot/forex market. It makes sense to trade in the direction of the main trend, which means looking for a drop in the yen against the dollar when prices hit that upper boundary—check out #1 for a visual. Now, I can hear the skeptics asking: what's the rationale behind these price movements at the Straddle boundaries? After all, a Straddle is just a straightforward strategy that involves buying volatility and betting on price movement. True, that’s the textbook definition, but it’s just scratching the surface. The real insights and "battle-tested applications" of this strategy are way more intricate than they seem. Stay tuned for our updates, and you’ll definitely uncover the hidden meanings and value of options analysis for the everyday forex trader. Trust me, these insights can give you a real edge in the market. It’s worth your time and effort!
CME:6JZ2024
by ClashChartsTeam
EUR/USD: Extending the declineHello dear friends. Overall, EURUSD has made a significant recovery from last week with a price increase beyond 1.0800 after data from the US showed that Durable Goods Orders fell 0.8% in September. However, unfortunately, the pair quickly fell back and closed the fourth consecutive week in negative territory, weakening EURUSD significantly. In addition, from the 1-hour chart, the pair has broken the rising trend line and the price wedge has been broken, suggesting that the bears are likely to continue to gain the upper hand without any significant reversal, as shown by the flat 34.89 EMA.
Short
by Bentradegold
EUR/USD: hits new 16-week lowEUR/USD is trading around 1.078 and the technical picture remains heavily bearish after failing to break above the 1.0800 resistance level. The decline comes as Fibre falls sharply ahead of Thursday’s new round of Purchasing Managers’ Index data. ECB officials have played down economic concerns, reiterating the need for caution when considering future rate cuts. As seen on the 1-hour chart, it can be seen that the price remains below the 34, 89 EMAs and the price wedge has not been broken, suggesting that the downtrend is not over yet. This usually allows sellers to still gain the advantage of a more bearish reversal in the near term, potentially reaching lower levels around 1.0740. Happy trading.
Short
by Bentradegold
1
Technical Analysis of Donald Trump Media & Presidential ElectionNote that the DJT has risen significantly from the recent lows. It is currently sitting at the Red support-resistance line on the chart. We normally short stocks at this point, but with the Elections approaching fast, should we entertain thoughts of Donald Trump winning? If yes, we should be buying $DJT. ---- How to understand price action. It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand. You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points. MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying). For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling). For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it. Shorting is more difficult and should be done with extreme caution by novice traders. #DonaldTrump #Elections #stocks #options #trading
NASDAQ:DJT
by mastercharts
4
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Sept 20th 63 Monied Covered Call... for a 59.60 debit. Comments: High IVR/high IV at 68.7/63.1%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Additionally, adding at strikes/break evens better than what I've current got on (the August 16th 73 covered calls; break even 70.80). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 59.60 Max Profit: 3.40 ROC at 50% Max: 5.70% 50% Max: 1.70 ROC at 50% Max: 2.85% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out for duration on side test.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
EURUSD: to the point of important supportEUR/USD has restored half -hearted on Thursday, restoring four tenths of percent and increasing over 1,0800. Despite the recovery on the weekend, Fiber still dropped sharply compared to the recent high level after a decrease of more than 4% from top to bottom compared to the highest bid at the end of September nearly 1,1200. Technically, the recent decline has followed the principle of DOW theory, showing that after a large decline, the market will often tend to adjust. In this scenario, EURUSD is likely to retreat to Fibonacci levels 0.5 to 0.618, in the range of 1,09307 to 1,09836. This will be an important resistance area, where the price may slow down or have a selling pressure again. What do you think of the recovery momentum at the present time?
Long
by Bentradegold
$MBLY The Future is Bright with Massive Upside. 10x Opportunity!NASDAQ:MBLY The Future is Bright with Massive Upside. 10x Opportunity! In this video, we will be going over the following with Mobileye Stock: - The potential for a short squeeze in the name 17%+ short float - NASDAQ:MBLY aligning with my 5/5 trading strategy - Potential acquisition of NASDAQ:INTC by NASDAQ:QCOM and what that means for NASDAQ:MBLY - Upcoming earnings preview Like ❤️ Follow🤳 Share 🔂 Comment what stock you want to see charting analysis on below. Not financial advice. NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NYSE:QS NASDAQ:BIVI NASDAQ:VKTX NASDAQ:ASTS NASDAQ:MNPR #SmallCaps #TradingSignals #TradingTips #options
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by RonnieV29
4
XAUUSD: Exiting the uptrend channel !Latest gold price forecast today October 24, 2024: Gold information: World gold prices fell sharply today due to pressure from the increase in the USD and US Treasury bond yields. Specifically, the US Dollar Index increased by 0.3% to nearly a 3-month high, which put pressure on gold prices. US bond yields also increased to a 3-month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Although gold prices have decreased, experts are still optimistic because the uncertainties related to the US election along with the increasing debt burden in this country are also making investors worried and looking to gold as a safe haven for cash flow. Conclusion: This has caused gold to continuously conquer records and has increased by more than 31% this year. With this momentum, gold is one of the best investment channels in 2024. Ben's personal comment: On most timeframes, gold price is still well supported, creating a good recovery momentum from the support level of 2408 and now 2723 dollars. The recovery is likely to continue in the coming time with targets of 2733 - 2739 respectively, before any further correction in the main trend. Gold setup: Buy entry: 2721 - 2717 SL: 2713 TP: 2733 - 2739 Sell entry: 2733 - 2735 - 2737 - 2739 SL: 2743 TP: 2714 - 2708
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
4
Gold prices continue to search for new peaks?Conan, hello everyone! Today, the price of gold continues to break records by maintaining a new peak around $2700, and the growth trend seems to show no signs of slowing down this year. Notably, this week, the European Central Bank held a meeting and officially decided to cut interest rates for the third time this year, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points. At the same time, gold has attracted more attention from investors after the LBMA poll released earlier this week. These developments have made the gold market hotter than ever. It is expected that this price increase will reach $2760. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you agree with me?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ConanTradingFX
EURUSD: Selling strategy is preferred!EUR/USD continued to slide below 1.0800 during the European session on Wednesday. The major currency pair remained under pressure as the outlook for the Euro (EUR) deteriorated due to faster-than-expected inflation declines and rising risks of a Eurozone recession, fueling speculation of more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). EUR/USD was also pressured by a rally in the USD. The US dollar gained amid political uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election and strong expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing cycle will be more gradual than previously expected. Trend-wise, the bearish bias remains dominant across most timeframes and the short strategy remains the dominant style. Happy trading and good profits!
Short
by Bentradegold
Gold continues to conquer new heightsHello everyone! What is the current price of gold? Let's analyze with Victor! The world gold price today set a new record of 2,747 USD/ounce, up 27 USD compared to the same period yesterday at 2,720 USD/ounce. The world gold price skyrocketed to an all-time high as investors increased their demand for safe capital due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East. In addition, gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability and has increased by more than 32% since the beginning of 2024. Lower interest rates also increase the attractiveness of holding gold. As can be seen on the 2-hour chart, gold is showing an extremely positive technical outlook. With moving averages sloping up and technical indicators supporting the bullish trend, gold is ready to conquer new highs. The $2,733 support level acted as a solid cushion in line with the 34 EMA and the rising channel limit, allowing gold to easily clear the $2,747 resistance and move strongly towards the $2,770 target. So, what do you all think about gold prices today? Will the bullish momentum continue?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Gold prices continue to rise at the end of the week!Hello everyone, what do you think about the gold price? Today, the gold price is on an upward trend, after the buyers previously completed conquering the highs at 2661 -2700 - 2720 respectively, the price has started to increase and is currently trading at a new high of 2721 dollars. This increase is due to the fact that the two largest and second largest economies in the world, the US and China, have both announced negative economic data, which has boosted the demand for gold reserves. In addition to the reason for the poor economic information, investors expect the US Federal Reserve to cut the USD interest rate in early November, the market also expects the upcoming US election in November. As seen on the 4-hour chart, the gold price has been continuously pushed up since the price broke out of the downtrend and in addition, the new peak is still unclear before the weekend close, showing that the upward trend will continue. Using the Fibonacci extension, I expect and forecast that the gold price will likely move in the Elliott wave (1,2,3,4,5) and target higher levels at around 1.618 i.e. (2739) and if 1.272 (2717) holds, the price will increase higher to level 2 (2762) to continue to set as the final target. At this time, the realization phase is forming, Conan is waiting for confirmation with the aim of further strengthening in the coming time. What do you think about this view?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ConanTradingFX
EURUSD: Recovery then decline?Hello dear friends! What do you think if EURUSD continues its downtrend in the future? This will be a long-term analysis for this currency pair. On the chart analysis: Ben sees that a double top pattern has formed (clearly indicated from the chart) which marks a strong fight from the sellers as they try to push the downtrend back. Furthermore, using Fibonacci retracement levels to measure the retracement of the first wave (blue area), the downtrend is expected to continue after reaching the 0.618 retracement level. If the price action of this currency pair plays out according to this trading idea, the 1.0910 and 1.0779 levels will be targeted by the sellers. What about you? How do you feel about the future trend of EURUSD? Share in the comments!
Short
by Bentradegold
Latest GBPUSD Comments Today - October 21, 2024Looking at the GBPUSD chart, we can see that the price is moving within a clear downtrend channel. Currently, the price is right next to the upper trendline of this channel, indicating that selling pressure may dominate and continue to push the price lower. Today's trading trend: SELL scalp. Trading strategy: For those considering trading, it is reasonable to look for a selling opportunity in the resistance area near $1.3050, with a target of $1.2950. Place a stop loss above the resistance area of ​​$1.3070 to limit risk. Wishing you a profitable and safe trading week.
Short
by Bentradegold
Gold prices continue to rise from $2,600Dear Traders! Analyzing the gold chart on the 1-hour time frame, we can see that gold prices were relatively weak at the beginning of the trading session after closing the week at $2660 with a slight reversal, currently hovering around $2656. This reversal is due to some short-term technical factors, especially a gap opening, which prompted investors to fill in based on the fundamental technical factor and is currently doing so. In addition, the price is still reacting to the 34 EMA and the Elliott wave on the uptrend channel has not been broken yet, so the expectation is that gold prices will continue to be attractive in the near term. With the current Elliott wave trend, gold is likely to move towards higher targets if it breaks through the important resistance area of ​​$2660. Always analytical. Good luck traders!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
Gold XAUUSD trading trend analysis on October 21, 2024At the end of last week's trading session, gold prices continued to increase strongly. Gold prices have created a new ATH after a correction to 260x. We will now trade according to the main trend. Wait for the next adjustment of gold to enter a long-term order. Today's trading trend: BUY scalp. Price zones to pay attention to: BUY zone: 2703 - 2708 SELL zone: 2735 - 2740 and 2745 Wishing you a profitable and safe trading week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold