Opening (IRA): SPY Dec 20th 505 Covered Call... for a 501.71 debit.
Comments: Re-upping at a higher strike than the one I just took off, looking to capture an additional little increment of upmove that I missed out on.
If you wanted to be really anal about it, you could capture all of the up move over time (or capture the same increment more than once).
For example, say I just took off the November 15th 500 covered call at or near max (e.g., 499.80). I can then shop for a monied covered call to capture the next increment of movement from 499.80 up, so I'd want to get into a setup for 499.80 or less.
This would be the Jan 31st 506 covered call, currently trading for 499.72 and would ostensibly capture the move from 499.72 to 506 (assuming, naturally, a finish above 506).
In the next iteration, I would look to capture the move from 506 up, and so on, all the way until my short call was at-the-money or out-of-the-money, depending on what I was trying to do with the setup.
Optionsstrategies
Gold → The correction is gaining momentum. The next target is 24Hello, dear traders, Ben here!
Gold faced significant supply on Monday and broke a four-day winning streak, indicating that gold prices are ready to reach lower levels, such as down to 2547-2470. What has happened and what will happen?
Demand for the dollar has increased at the expense of gold. At the same time, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for November still rose 2.8% year-over-year, higher than the forecast and the Federal Reserve's (FED) target of 2%. These factors could make the FED more cautious in continuing to cut interest rates in the short term.
In the medium term, the focus is on the non-farm payroll report; if the data shows a robust labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is more likely not to cut interest rates. That will boost the USD and could negatively impact gold.
On the H4 chart, gold is in a local downtrend channel and below the psychological resistance level of 2643. If the bears keep the 2633-2643 region under control, gold may continue to weaken towards the 2547 - 2470 level.
Technically, after a week of low liquidity due to the holidays, this metal may enter a consolidation phase, for example, in the 2643 - 2623 area, but it is still noteworthy to pay attention to the resistance and support levels from which strong moves can form...
Gold --> Interest in this metal is growingOANDA:XAUUSD On the basis of support from the dollar correction and the local maximum update. The liquidity is decreasing and Friday in the US also plays an important role in the market...
On H1, gold holds within the boundaries of a local bullish channel on the basis of a weak dollar, mainly due to the inflation regime... In addition, the dovish sentiment from the Fed regarding interest rate policies continues to support gold prices, however, this is not a topic of interest at the moment.
On the other hand, buyers' attention is shifting to the policies of the new US administration, which may impact the economies, causing central banks to increase their gold reserves. This may spur a sharp increase in central banks' gold trading.
So, since we have a bullish run, an ascending channel and strong fundamentals, in this case, it is reasonable to consider buying only, which can only be done from around the support area (FVG) and a breakout of the resistance level. The expected gold price increase is 2678 and 2694 is getting closer :)
GTLB GitLab Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GTLB GitLab prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 68usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $3.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
#Nifty50 Volatile week ahead, outlook for 2-6th Dec 2024The Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a strong note, closing at 24,131, up 225 points from the previous week. The index oscillated between a high of 24,354 and a low of 23,873, staying within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300.
For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined to a range of 24,750 to 23,600 . A breach of these levels could trigger significant market volatility.
A closer look at the weekly chart reveals a potential W-pattern formation. To complete this pattern, a pullback towards the 23,500-23,600 support zone is necessary. Whether this pullback materializes next week will be crucial to watch.
S&P 500 Breaks Resistance, Sets Stage for Further Gains
The S&P 500 index finally managed to breach the strong Fibonacci resistance level of 6,013. If it can sustain above the 6,000 mark, a move towards the 6,142 level, representing a 1.5% upside, is likely. Such a move could provide a positive impetus to global markets. However, a failed breakout could lead to a 2% correction, potentially testing the 5,914-5,900 support zone. Investors should be prepared for both scenarios.
Opening (IRA): IWM Dec 20th 195 Covered Call... for a 193.79 debit.
Comments: Re-upping with a monied covered call in the December 20th expiry at a strike that is slightly higher than the one I just took off to "capture" the next little increment of up move that I missed out on. I'm not expecting much out of this (it has a 1.21 max), but didn't want to set up my tent in January yet either.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ January 17th 65 Covered Call... for a 61.79 debit.
Comments: Adding a "rung" at a break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.79/share
Max Profit: 3.21 ($321)
ROC at Max: 5.20%
50% Max: 1.62 ($162)
ROC at 50% Max: 2.60%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit test (which is at 63.40).
Gold--> Trade inside from channel boundaryOANDA:XAUUSD A slight increase from $2,650 after the breakout, this is generally due to political news, but the overall fundamental backdrop remains challenging. Today, liquidity is low due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Metal prices are affected by geopolitical risks, which remain high due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the commitment of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico is also having an impact. "This has raised a bit more concern about the possible consequences from these two countries. So, that remains an important supporting factor for gold."
In theory, any effort to push gold prices higher may be limited because Trump’s tax plan is also considered a potential driver of inflation, which could lead the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow the process of cutting interest rates.
Technically, gold is moving sideways, so we consider trading from the range boundaries. We focus on the local channel from H1 2660 - 2618 and the global channel from D1 at 2690 (2710) - 2605.
Accordingly, at this time, gold is heading toward liquidity above. A false breakout of the main resistance zone and price consolidation in the selling area could lead to a price drop to the lower boundary of the sideways range.
BTCUSDT Technical Analysis OverviewHi guys,
Ascending Channel and Breakout:
The chart shows a long-term ascending channel that guided price action for several months. Recently, Bitcoin broke out of this channel, signaling a strong shift in bullish momentum. The breakout was accompanied by significant volume, confirming the strength of the move.
Fibonacci Levels and Pullback Zone:
After the breakout, the price retraced slightly and is now hovering around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($87,208) and the 0.5 level ($83,322). This area is critical, as it coincides with a Fair Value Gap (FVG)—a liquidity zone where buyers are likely to step in.
EMA 34 and EMA 89 Support:
Both EMA 34 and EMA 89 are acting as dynamic support levels, and their upward slope reinforces the bullish structure. This alignment confirms that the current pullback is part of a healthy correction in a broader uptrend.
Liquidity Grab Potential:
The highlighted liquidity zone suggests that price may temporarily dip to attract more buyers. A test of this zone could serve as a springboard for the next upward leg.
Upside Targets:
Using Fibonacci extensions, my first target aligns with the 1.0 level ($99,787), followed by 1.272 ($108,744) and 1.618 ($120,138). These levels represent logical points where profit-taking could occur in the next bullish wave.
Price Action Scenario:
Based on the chart, I anticipate a potential bounce from the liquidity zone and FVG, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend. However, a failure to hold the $83,322 level could invalidate this setup and shift focus back to lower support zones.
Conclusion:
The technicals suggest that Bitcoin remains bullish as long as the key support at $83,322 holds. I'm closely watching price action in the FVG zone for signs of buying pressure before targeting higher levels at $99,787 and beyond. Patience is key, as the market digests the breakout and prepares for its next major move.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD capitalizing on the weakening of the US dollar and heading towards the areas of interest and liquidity at 2635 - 2639. But! There are signs that a flag pattern is forming. Theoretically, any attempt for gold prices to rise could be limited. PCE, GDP, and the resistance ahead...
Meanwhile, sellers pause slightly amid concerns about trade wars, geopolitical risks, expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, recently declining US bond yields, and the USD falling overnight to a two-week low. However, ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US, namely PCE and GDP, after a relatively quiet news week, volatility is likely to be unpredictable. The question now is whether the downward momentum will continue as the price reacts to a critical support zone.
Technically, gold remains range-bound and is heading towards areas of interest from which a retracement could form. But this reaction also partly depends on the news....
The focus is on the imbalance zone, fibo 0.618 and fibo 0.5. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
Technical analysis of XAUUSD chartDear friends, it's Ben here!
Flag Pattern: The chart showcases a well-formed flag pattern, a classic bearish continuation signal.
Target Projection: Using the height of the previous wave 3 of the flagpole, the pattern's target is forecasted to be around $2,553.
Fibonacci Levels: The price is at a level corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,637, a strong bearish signal, with the next resistance near $2,647 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
Breakout Confirmation: A breakout from the flag will confirm the bearish momentum.
Trend Outlook: A macro bearish trend is indicated, supported by resistance rooted in fundamental factors...
Consider, share your opinions and questions, discuss what is happening with OANDA:XAUUSD
EURUSD: Corrects After False Breakout Before Continuing DownwardFX:EURUSD rising higher based on the correlated reaction with the dollar. The currency pair is likely to test the local highs. But! Since there is scheduled news today, you must be extremely cautious...
The fundamental background remains overall very negative since Trump’s victory.
Additionally, the local downtrend is not yet over, thus providing us with the main trend to follow in our trading decisions.
From a technical perspective, as a false support breakout is forming on the chart, we should wait for a retest of the resistance areas to consider further selling attempts aimed at pushing the price lower.
Short-term levels to watch:
Resistance levels: 1.051, 1.065, 1.076
Support levels: 1.051, 1.044, 1.033
If the bears behave aggressively on the back of the news, the price will likely continue to decline from these areas.
Opening (IRA): TAN Dec 20th 34 Covered Call... for a 32.69 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 115.8/57.1. Adding a rung out in December to my position at a break even better than what I currently have on. (See Post Below). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.69
Max Profit: 1.31
ROC at Max: 4.01%
50% Max: .66
ROC at 50% Max: 2.00%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
$SPY Trade Alert from 11/25 (Update) | 31% ROI TodayOur AMEX:SPY range trading strategy is in full-effect.
We talked on livestream about trading the upside to $600 (from $598) and that trade paid out handsomely.
I think we could expect $605 tomorrow if price action continues to the upside.
I will continue to update as these trades play out, week after week!
Gold-> continue to drop to $ 2600. What will happen?Hello, dear friends, this is Ben!
Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in a week during the Asian session on Tuesday, although spot prices found some support near the $2,600 mark.
Meanwhile, the prevalent risk-on environment, coupled with bets for slower Fed rate cuts and rising U.S. Treasury yields, is driving flows out of the safe-haven XAU/USD. Theoretically, any attempt to push gold prices higher may face limitations.
Ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Technically, gold is attempting to break out of the key range after testing support. If a false break occurs at the 2634 level, a minor correction towards resistance may form.
Resistance levels: 2634, 2649, 2663
Support levels: 2618, 2607, 2600
If sellers hold the price below 2630-2634, the bearish momentum could strengthen. However, as the price is testing strong support, a significant reaction could form a false breakout and a correction, potentially targeting levels like 2649-2663 (fibo 0.5), before continuing the downtrend.
XRPUSDTXRP/USDT continues to show bullish strength with support from the technical structure and the main trend line. If there are no surprises from the market, the possibility of the price testing the 1.520 - 1.620 zone in the coming sessions is very high. Investors need to closely monitor the price reaction at the support and resistance zones to optimize their trading strategy.
Bitcoin: Approaching 100,000...Focus on 96,500Hello all dear friends!
Bitcoin is approaching a critical point as it nears the psychological resistance level at $100,000 within its ascending channel. The 4-hour chart clearly shows that BTC is gaining strength, supported by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, signaling a steady uptrend. However, the question remains: Will Bitcoin surpass this key level, or are we about to witness a pullback? Theoretically, this is still unclear… Personally, I recommend traders limit their trades as the price approaches this level and open positions only when there is a clear confirmation.
From a technical perspective, we can clearly see that the price is climbing smoothly in a sustainable uptrend toward $100,000. However, after the previous rally, it seems the price has missed significant liquidity zones… For this reason, I do not rule out the possibility that the price may approach the resistance level with the intention of establishing a new high before any reversal reaction occurs. That said, I would prioritize trades if the price breaks below the $96,500 support level, targeting take-profit levels sequentially at $93,300, $88,800, and $85,000.
BTCUSDT: Bullish momentum continues to buildBINANCE:BTCUSDT continues to hold its ground, trading with an uptrend as buyers look to push the price above a key resistance level. Currently, BTC is consolidating near $91,824, showing signs of accumulation within an ascending triangle pattern. This pattern is often considered a bullish signal, indicating a strong breakout.
The current market sentiment remains bullish, supported by institutional interest and macroeconomic factors, such as a weaker dollar and growing demand for cryptocurrencies as a hedge. The chart shows that Bitcoin could gain momentum, especially if buyers manage to break above the key resistance level of $93,300.
Traders should keep a close eye on the $93,300 resistance level. A confirmed breakout with high volume could provide an entry point for long positions, while traders remain conservative. However, with the price reacting to strong resistance, I do not rule out the possibility that the price could wait for a pullback to the $90,000-91,000 zone, form a trend line and rise.
Gold: Shocking drop of nearly 100 USD/ounceThe world gold price today is listed on Kitco at $2,625/ounce, down $90/ounce compared to early this morning.
Gold prices fell sharply as investors took profits after a five-session rally to a three-week high last week.
Gold was also negatively affected after Donald Trump chose billionaire investor Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary in the new administration. According to analysts, Scott Bessent will not be tough in the trade confrontation with China, causing political risks to cool down, which will be detrimental to gold prices.
Bitcoin faces downward pressure, can it bounce back?In the recent trading session, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing signs of strong selling pressure as the price fluctuates around $94,300. The technical chart on the 1-hour chart shows that the price is currently testing important support and resistance zones.
Bullish scenario:
If Bitcoin can break above the trigger zone at $95,200, it will signal a recovery, with a target towards the resistance zone from $98,500. This will require support from positive market sentiment and money flowing back into the crypto market.
Bearish scenario:
On the contrary, if Bitcoin breaks the strong support zone at $92,557, the downtrend may continue with a target of a deeper drop to the $88,700 zone. This will be an important price level to assess the selling momentum in the market.
ETHUSDT: Just One Step Away To $3800...Currently, I see the ETH/USDT pair showing clear bullish signals with the formation of the Cup and Handle pattern. The reason for this uptrend is after the price was rejected around the $3,280 support area and quickly rebounded approximately 0.5% on the day. This pattern – being one of the classic formations in technical analysis – often indicates a strong growth phase when the price breaks through a critical resistance zone.
For me, the $3,400 resistance zone is the key point (trigger) to activate the bullish trend. If the price can break and close above this zone, I believe ETH will quickly enter a strong breakout phase.
The target I am expecting after the trigger is activated is the $3,800 level – this is the price level that completes the Cup and Handle pattern, promising significant profits in the next bullish trend.
Bitcoin: Should I Buy or Sell?Currently, the BTC/USDT pair is showing clear bearish signals after being rejected at the $98,000 resistance zone and forming a lower high. The RSI is also weakening, signaling price divergence, in the short term, we expect selling pressure to increase.
Short-term downside targets are identified at TP1: $95,729 and TP2: $93,246.
GOLD--> Local trend changing? Will it rise to new ATH?OANDA:XAUUSD after a false breakout at 2700, the price has returned to a correction phase, aiming to consolidate its potential for continuing the trend. In the current situation, the fundamental backdrop is shifting in favor of the metal, which active buyers are pursuing...
Gold has not reacted significantly to the previous rally of the dollar, despite hawkish signals from the Fed.
The reason for the metal's rise lies in the escalation of tensions following the UK and US allowing Ukraine to use weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Russia responded with stronger attacks afterward. Fundamentally, these actions make gold a safe haven choice for protecting assets.
This week, due to the Thanksgiving holidays in the US, trading volumes are expected to fluctuate sharply at the beginning of the week.
Technically, it is predicted that the precious metal could update its ATH this year. However, short-term levels ahead need to be monitored closely. Specifically:
Support levels: 2685, 2675, 2650
Resistance levels: 2711, 2733, 2750
Nonetheless, the upcoming resistance levels must be observed, as they are likely to trigger the next move for the metal. The adjustment toward the nearest liquidity zones is expected, but we are not talking about a reversal. The correction could end quickly, and the price is likely to return to an upward phase. The medium-term target is 2731-2750.