IBM International Business Machines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought IBM before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of IBM International Business Machines prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $8.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Optionsstrategies
EURUSD continues to maintain an increasing rangeConan, hello everyone.
Today, EUR/USD is maintaining its initial bullish bias below 1.0800, after closing the session with a steady gain above the intact bullish channel. The pair is supported by optimism over China's stimulus measures and a broad correction in the US dollar, which helped reverse the decline caused by the ECB's dovish decision.
On the other hand, any further upside is likely to face resistance around 1.0974, above which, it could trigger a short-term recovery and push EUR/USD towards the psychological level of 1.1020.
Gold todayHello everyone!
Overall, Gold is trying to maintain its upward momentum from today's Asian session, despite the risk aversion from China. The weakness in the USD continues to provide momentum for gold.
Currently, a cup with handle pattern has appeared, indicating a positive signal for the medium-term outlook. However, the important resistance level of $2,670 is a big challenge. If buyers can take advantage of the strong momentum from the $2,660 - $2,665 zone, supported by the 34 EMA that has not shown any signs of reversal, then gold could definitely break out to $2,680 in the short term.
Gold prices continue to rise?Gold is struggling to capitalize on the positive momentum from Friday and is currently hovering around $2680. With clear signs of bullish momentum being shown by the 34 and 89 EMAs, there are no significant signs of a reversal yet.
The next prediction is that gold will continue to trade in the range of $2683 to $2660. The $2660 level at the 89 EMA could be retested, but only in the short term for consolidation. The preferred direction remains an upward movement.
EUR/USD should buy or sell ?Hello everyone!
The EUR/USD pair has just broken a four-day losing streak and is currently hovering around 1.0840 in the Asian session on Friday. The recent decline has been largely driven by the strengthening of the US Dollar, with the greenback hitting a two-month high of 103.87 on Thursday. Despite the strong recovery, the market is now gradually shifting towards expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates soon, helping the EUR/USD pair recover slightly and minimize losses in the short term.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD downtrend remains clear, however, the key support zone at 1.0810 and then 1.0777 is still holding. Moreover, a harmonic pattern has formed, signaling a potential reversal, at least towards the 1.0980 level, where confluence signals are emerging strongly.
Do you think this pair could reverse and rise again soon? Don't miss out on the exciting trading opportunities that await!
USDJPY: Uptrend Remains IntactHello everyone!
USD/JPY is finding fresh demand alongside the US Dollar in the Asian session on Thursday. New measures in the Chinese real estate market disappointed and strengthened the safe-haven greenback. The US Retail Sales data will now be in focus, and looks vulnerable.
However, in the short term, with the trend still intact and because of the principle of "trend is your friend", Ben predicts that the price will correct slightly to test the 34 and 89 EMA before continuing to strengthen further in the near term.
What do you think about this major pair today?
Opening (IRA): MU Nov 15th 95 Covered Call... for a 92.53 debit.
Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains somewhat decent here at 45.2%. Selling the -80 delta call against long stock to emulate the metrics of a 20 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 92.53/share
Max Profit: 2.47
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test.
Gold price increased sharply, reaching 2650 USDGold prices made an impressive reversal today, rising more than $25 to $2,635, after six consecutive sessions in the red. The recovery came on Thursday, as investors began to adjust their strategies based on a series of important economic data from the US.
The CPI report showed signs of cooling inflation, while employment data reflected a weakening labor market. These signals have reinforced the belief that the Fed is on the right track in adjusting monetary policy. This is the factor that helped gold prices rebound, as investors saw a less tense economic environment, supporting safe havens like gold.
With positive signals from the economy and confidence in the Fed's policies, gold is returning to an upward trend, opening up attractive opportunities for investors.
Update latest gold price today.Gold prices continued to rise slightly on Tuesday as Treasury yields eased, while investors cautiously awaited more data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. The 10-year yield fell as the day's report showed a slowdown in manufacturing activity in New York state.
Accordingly, bond yields are putting slight pressure on gold. However, the advantage is still tilted towards a sideways or higher scenario for gold in the short term, assuming that both bond yields and the USD will decline.
In the current environment, I appreciate the surprising strength of this precious metal. Gold has not succumbed to the strength of the USD and Treasury yields, and the rally continues to be simmering.
GBPUSD Ben hello everyone!
On the 1-hour chart, the downtrend continues. After losing momentum from 1.306, GBPUSD has continued to decline. With the market looking unfavorable and the Fed’s interest rate cut policy unclear, GU has lost value.
The next target for the next decline is seen at 1.2950, which is a strong psychological barrier. However, the possibility of a rebound cannot be ruled out if the bulls manage to push the price up from 1.2980 as mentioned on the chart.
EURUSD continues downtrend below 1.0900Dear Friends,
You may be wondering why the price has fallen so sharply.
In international market news:
- The US Dollar (USD) continued to appreciate, albeit modestly, encouraging the US Dollar Index (DXY) to maintain multi-week highs above 103.00.
- Supporting the greenback's rally in recent weeks were the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18. The minutes showed that a "majority" of policymakers favored easing monetary policy with a 50 basis point cut, but did not commit the Federal Reserve to a specific timeline for future cuts.
Results:
- As both the Fed and the ECB consider additional interest rate moves, the EUR/USD outlook will depend on macroeconomic trends. The US economy is expected to outperform the Eurozone, potentially boosting the USD further.
On technical analysis and gold price forecast for the coming period:
- EURUSD has broken above the support level at 1.0892 and the price volume is below both the 34-day and 89-day exponential moving averages (EMA), suggesting a higher possibility of further declines.
- Currently, EURUSD is trading near the resistance level of 1.0892, with immediate support at 1.0850.
GBPUSD's decline has not stopped yetHello everyone, Conan!
Today, the GBPUSD pair is maintaining a mild negative trend, trading at around 1.0544. After losing momentum from 1.3000, GBPUSD has continued to decline. The pair could continue to decline in the coming period, as the market reassesses the Bank of England (BoE) policy outlook following weak inflation data.
The current support level is set at 1.2976, significant stops will accumulate below this figure and if triggered, the decline could accelerate towards 1.2950.
EURUSD extends gains above 1.0850Conan, hello everyone!
Currently, EURUSD is taking advantage of the upside opportunity from the strong support at 1.0852. It can be seen that the pair is cooling down and gradually opening up more upside opportunities.
It is clear that EUR/USD is on a tear, falling to a multi-week low as the Euro continues to weaken ahead of the upcoming European Central Bank interest rate meeting on Thursday. However, the widely expected ECB rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or 25 bps, has eased some of the pressure on the pair.
The price is currently trading around the 1.0862-1.0860 range and remains dependent on the price momentum of the US Dollar (USD).
Resistance: 1.0876, 1.0905
Support: 1.0852, 1.0858
Gold price update: Price exceeds 2665 USDHello everyone!
As Conan predicted earlier, gold did indeed take advantage of the $2,665 support level and broke above the nearest resistance level of $2,770. As a result, gold rallied and hit an earlier high of $2,685 before quickly correcting slightly but still maintaining its best uptrend in 2024.
Currently, according to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 96% chance of a further 25 basis point cut in US interest rates at its November policy meeting.
In addition, experts predict that the ECB is likely to cut rates again at its October 17 meeting. Likewise, expectations for a BoE rate cut at its meeting next month are gradually increasing as domestic inflation shows signs of slowing.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.
Opening (IRA): TAN Nov 15th 37 Covered Call... for a 35.89 debit.
Comments: Relatively decent IV here at 42.8%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.89
Max Profit: 1.11
ROC at Max: 3.09%
50% Max: .56
ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on test.
EUR/USD Struggles to Recover - Bears Dominate!Today, EUR/USD pair continued to fluctuate in a narrow range below the 1.0900 mark during Thursday's trading session, holding on to recent heavy losses, after falling to a near two-month low the previous day.
Technically, the old support level has turned into a stiff resistance, making any recovery attempt difficult. Meanwhile, technical indicators and signals from EMA 34, 89 continue to favor the Bears, putting EUR/USD on the back foot against other rivals.
Good luck traders!
Opening (IRA): NVDA Nov 15th 83/98/143/158... for a 2.70 credit.
Comments: 30-day IV remains fairly decent here at 48.9%. Going wider than I usually do from a delta standpoint, with the short option legs camped out at the 16 delta, but with the wings at standard width (1/10th the price of the underlying), knowing that I will probably adjust the setup at some point given its duration (56 DTE).
Earnings haven't been firmly announced yet, but are likely to occur right around mopex (~11/14), so will look to be out of the trade by then.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 12.30
Max Profit: 2.70
ROC at Max: 21.95%
50% Max: 1.35
ROC at 50% Max: 10.98%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll in sides to delta balance.
ALLY Ally Financial Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ALLY Ally Financial prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 36usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-25,
for a premium of approximately $1.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Oct 18th 59 Monied Covered Call... for a 56.10 debit.
Comments: This isn't at a lower strike than what I currently have on, but I'm (somewhat) fine with it, since I'm still below what I have in mind to be maximally deployed in this instrument.
Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 56.10
Max Profit: 2.90
ROC at Max: 5.17%
50% Max: 1.45
ROC at 50% Max: 2.58%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call for duration and credit.