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Expectations for 2020 Caution is required from the thin market perspective also we expect an increased likelihood of volatility explosions on the market. As we turn to 2020, the year promises to be extremely difficult and eventful. Whether this year will be a year of crisis, we will see, actually we would bet on a crisis. In this regard, we expect massive sales on world stock markets, which will be accompanied by an increase in demand for safe-haven assets. So purchases of gold and the Japanese yen in 2020 will continue to remain relevant. "Deal of the Year" for us will be sales in the US stock market. But on this occasion, we have another review, where we describe in as much detail as possible why 2020 should be the year of the collapse of the US stock market (well, or at least, the time for a full correction on it). As for the foreign exchange market, a lot of trades will depend on the actual development of events: what the Fed will want?, whether a full-fledged crisis or recession will occur in the world?, how the elections in the USA will end?, etc. Therefore, for now, we will not make any guesses, but we will note one deal that has, in our opinion, the maximum chances to get profit. It's about buying the British pound. 2020 should be the year when Brexit “ends”. And according to the “soft” scenario. Accordingly, the growth potential of the pound is measured in hundreds of points, and according to our estimates, pared with the dollar, it may well exceed 1.40. That is, from current prices it is about 1000 pips. Another promising trade in the foreign exchange market, the sale of the Russian ruble. Its current strengthening of the ruble should not be intimidating or perplexing. On the contrary, this is just a great opportunity for sales. Yes, probably you will need to hold the position for more than one week or even a month. But we have practically no doubts about its positive outcome. And a few words about oil. Its growth potential due to the new OPEC + deal is not fully exhausted. But in general, we tend to begin to build a medium-term short position, starting the first round of sales already at current prices. Why? the expectation of serious problems in the global economy. Recession or toward recession will be a serious blow to demand in the oil market, which will invariably provoke a drop in quotations. Also, on the supply side, 2020 could be a watershed. Russia is talking about a possible exit from OPEC + due to the need to fight for market share. If this happens, then sales on the oil market can not be avoided. Therefore, those who are ready to be in a position for several months can join us and start selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | Energy OverboughtA good time to update the Oil chart after the OPEC desperation leg. Those following the previously posted long-term macro chart will remember the breakout we have been tracking: On the demand side, manufacturing remains sluggish and we are again outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day with only one direction for Oil in the long-term. For the flows I continue to sell rallies, this works nicely as a hedge versus the USD devaluation / reflationary theme for 1H20. A major breakdown here will cause for a reassessment of the USDCAD macro map for 2020. Remember we traded some of the swing highs previously to the tick: Overall, I see the case for meaningful Oil weakness in 2020, but if we get significant USD devaluation - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger Oil risk lies to the downside. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Good luck all those selling rallies in Oil.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
9
Trump Impeachment, infernal sanctions, BoE & BoJUS President Donald Trump has been impeached by the Democratic-led House of Representatives for obstruction of Congress and abuse of power related to his dealings with Ukraine. The votes made Trump only the third president in United States history to be impeached and set the stage for a likely trial in the Republican-led Senate in January. This event has already been included in current prices and moods in the financial markets. Note, the fate of Trump is in the hands of the Senate, and there are 2/3 of the Republicans, so, Trump is not in danger. Nevertheless, we cannot but note that our already strong desire to sell the dollar after such news only intensified. After a volatile market on Tuesday, Wednesday became a respite day. But today there is a possibility of the return of strong movements in pound pairs in the foreign exchange market. It is about the announcement of the results of the Bank of England. Experts expect the parameters of monetary policy in the country to remain unchanged. In general, this will be in line with the current mood of the leading Central banks in the world, which have taken a break and are following the development of events. So, surprises should be expected only from Mark Carney’s comments. Our expectations and a trading plan for today. As the pound sales dwindled yesterday. The markets have calmed down. So you can not be afraid of a crazy panic wave, which will be able to absorb our position beneath. Therefore, today we are returning to the idea of buying a pound both on the intraday and in the medium-term positions. The EU and Johnson’s comments could provoke local outbursts of volatility, and the direction of the price dynamics of the pound will be determined by the nature of information injections. But if you sit and wait for this kind of information, then you can freeze trading activity at all. So do not be afraid of opening the trade - the only restriction taking into account current realities is setting up the stops for each of the trade. Recall that we believe that the pound’s real value is 500, or even 1000 pips more expensive, which means buying is a promising trading idea. Among other trading ideas, we note simply excellent points for the sale of the Russian ruble. The fact is that yesterday the relevant committee of the US Senate approved sanctions against Russia for interfering in the elections. We are talking about the so-called "hellish sanctions." Of course, the bill still needs to be voted on and given to Trump for signature, so it is still a long way from implementation. The fact that the process is in progress cannot but put pressure on the ruble. That is why its current price is a gift that is simply a sin to refuse from. But in order to make this position more balanced, we recommend using oil purchases as a hedge. Actually, the ruble is growing because of oil growth. Even after the announcement of the OPEC + decision to increase production cuts, we recommend buying oil. So far, the dynamics of the asset fully justify this recommendation, which testifies in favour of our correct understanding of the situation. The Bank of Japan has already announced its decision. The expected monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. Therefore we purchase the Japanese yen. Low volatility, coupled with the USDJPY near to the top of the medium-term range, makes the deal quite profitable on the other hand with very limited risks. That is, sales of the USDJPY from 109.60 with stops above 109.90 and minimum profits of about 108.50 (or even 107.30) make the deal extremely interesting.
by Trade24Fx
Time "X" is getting closer, Boris may be celebrating his victoryIn yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more than a month, the situation looks more and more menacing day by day. Although the probability of the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the United States and China is quite high, we will continue to look for points to buy safe-haven assets today. This recommendation will remain relevant until the actual conclusion of the contract. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, is getting ready for Johnson's victory in parliamentary elections in the UK. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party will be ahead of the Labor Party by at least 10%. Recall, for Brexit, this means the end of the story - Johnson will be able to present his version of the deal Britain will finally leave the EU with the deal. For the pound, this is a powerful fundamental positive background. In this regard, we continue to recommend the purchase of the pound. It may well grow in the foreseeable future by several hundred pips. Since we are talking about the pound, we note that today will be published statistics on the UK. So you need to act with an eye on the data on GDP, trade balance and industrial production. Speaking of our other trading ideas for today, they are unchanged. Oil purchases still seem like a great idea to us in light of the latest OPEC + decision. Dollar sales are also promising.
by Trade24Fx
1
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
Crude Oil Might Hit 60 - 65 Range Next YearOil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has risen in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. Apparently, when oil overrides the usual November weakness, the momentum carries through into the next month. When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December. In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. I conclude that oil will rise next month but only moderately. As we can see in the monthly histogram of expected return, price has passed through the seasonally weak period and is moving into a seasonally stronger period in the first quarter. The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 levels by the end of January. OPEC's ministers will meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 and the wider OPEC+ group will meet on Dec. 6 to make a decision on the current agreement."All eyes are on OPEC this week," Innes said .Oil rose in November partly on expectations of the United States and China reaching an initial deal trade deal by the end of the year that would help restore global economic growth and future crude demand.Beijing's top priority in any phase one trade deal is the removal of existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China's Global Times newspaper reported on Sunday, a stance the U.S. is unlikely to agree to.The potential for no trade deal may weigh on oil prices next year, along with new supply that could create a glut, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. TAKE PROFIT - 56.72 58.61 60.40 61.90
FX:USOILLong
by Carlito_FX
Getting ready for the NFP, OPEC & trading on the newsIt is worth noting statistics from the Eurozone that was published on Thursday. On the one hand, as we predicted, Eurozone GDP came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q with a forecast + 0.1% q / q). On the other hand, retail sales failed (-0.6% m / m with a forecast -0.5% m / m), and industrial orders in Germany unexpectedly declined (-0.4% m / m with a forecast + 0.4% m / m). However, this did not prevent the euro from strengthening yesterday. Friday promises to be an exceptionally busy day for financial markets. First, official statistics on the US labour market will be published. Secondly, the results of an expanded OPEC meeting will be summarized. Also, we are waiting for data on the labour market of Canada. Let's start with an indicator that could potentially trigger volatility in the financial markets. We are talking about NFP. The forecasts, in our opinion, are too optimistic. Although + 180K jobs - almost the average figure of the indicator for 2019, current trends in the US economy show that + 180K is a bit overstated. The fact is that the non-farm payrolls: 180K+ is obliged to the start of the year when in January and February the indicator exceeded + 300K. But such figures have not been shown for a long time so without these two periods, the average in 2019 is less than 150K. 150K seems to us much closer to current realities, and in light of the weak employment rate from ADP published on Wednesday (+67 thousand jobs with a forecast +135 thousand), a figure below + 100K will not surprise us. So our recommendation for the dollar (in the light of our expectations from the NFP) is to sell the dollar. Note that the indicator's output between + 120K - + 180K may be completely ignored by the markets. Concerns about the demarche of Saudi Arabia at the OPEC meeting become irrelevant. On the contrary, there is increasing talk throughout the markets about a possible increase in the volume of reduction in oil production under OPEC + from the current 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd. However, even if such a decision is made in the oil market, nothing will change - OPEC countries are now extracting less than is stipulated by the agreements. Our position on oil is unchanged so far - oil growth is a great opportunity for asset sales. Today promises to be over-volatile for the USDCAD due to the simultaneous publication of labour market data from both the United States and Canada. Given the uncertainty related to the data, our recommendation for working with a pair today is to trade pending orders. Before the data is released, we place pending orders of the buy stop and sell stop type at 20-30 pips from the current price at that time. And then we just wait. That will almost certainly provoke the formation of a strong unidirectional movement, you can earn on.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
OPEC meeting, Bank of Canada decision and Eurozone GDPWe start with macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the extremely weak employment rate from ADP: +67 thousand jobs with a forecast of +135 thousand. So, buyers of the dollar should at least focus, because if similar statistics come out on Friday on the NFP, the dollar may well be sold out. Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone came out surprisingly good, which intensified the talks that the European economy was beginning to recover. The pound also got its reason for growth, as the UK business activity index also exceeded forecasts. Although we note that it was still below 50. It is rather symptomatic that the pound continues to grow without waiting for the election results. The markets decided that Brexit’s fate is predetermined (there will be no way out without a deal), but the pound is still very cheap, you need to buy it before it’s too late. We have long been bulls as for pound, so nothing surprising happens to us. We only note that a daily close above 1.30 is a strong bullish signal. And the pound may grow more than one hundred pips. So we are looking for points for his purchases. The Bank of Canada did not change the rate yesterday but was quite optimistic in its comments, which contributed to the growth of the Canadian dollar. So those readers who were following our recommendations could put in their piggy bank a good profit. Despite the extremely frightening information at the beginning of the week, the negotiation process between the US and China continues. And according to its participants, by December 15, the first phase should be completed. As for today the macroeconomic statistics, the news of the day will be the publication of Eurozone GDP. The fact may likely be higher than forecasts. This means that the euro may well strengthen up to 1.1160 paired with the dollar. Well, the main event of the week, at least for the oil market, will be the beginning of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The most likely scenario is an attempt to leave everything as it is. That is, they will adhere to the current line of behaviour (an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million b / d). For oil, this decision, by and large, does not change anything in terms of fundamental alignment. But any agreements to increase the limits will play into the hands of buyers and vice versa. Refusal of the deal in any form will be a strong hit to oil and activates its sellers.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
SELL WTIUS crude oil inventories decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week more than expected, which supported the current rally albeit OPEC meeting tomorrow may disappoint oil market if it failed to cut production more than the markets expects, if it preferred to extend the cut agreement only I think prices would drop sharply as usual during past meetings. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year, the shale oil production would cap any rally so it will be short lived.
TVC:USOILShort
by Assem_Mansour
Getting ready for the Bank of Canada decisionAs we announced, the demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly this week, which provoked both an increase in gold quotes and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. And if the reason for this was an increase in tariffs on imports to the United States of aluminium and steel from Argentina and Brazil on Monday, then on Tuesday Trump intimidated to introduce an additional 15% of tariffs on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 160 billion on December 15. At the same time, he added that he was not in a hurry and the best time to conclude a trade deal was generally after the 2020 elections. Of course, Trump should not be taken seriously, such his comments are a clear attempt to force China to be more accommodating in the negotiations. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors can be understood. Given that gold may easily grow (50-70 dollars per ounce), it is likely that yesterday's growth is only the beginning. So we continue to recommend looking for points of purchase for safe-haven assets. It is worth noting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the rate unchanged, which is generally a positive sign for the Australian dollar. Although its growth potential so far seems limited, it could still grow (50-70 pips), especially against the background of a weak dollar. US employment data from ADP traditionally published on the eve of official statistics is what we are waiting for. Although the level of correlation between ADP and NFP data is insignificant, strong deviations of the data from forecasts may well be flustrating to the markets. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. We expect the current status quo to be saved. But a change in the nature of the rhetoric of the Central Bank may well provoke a jump in volatility. Recall that our position on the Canadian dollar is to buy. That is, selling a USDCAD above 1.33 is, in our opinion, a great trading idea. The oil market is getting ready for the OPEC meeting. Globally, we remain supporters of oil sales. But for now, until the end of the week we take a break - the meeting may well surprise, but betting on red or black is not our approach, we prefer to work with facts.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Getting ready for a difficult week and analyzing key eventsThe previous week for the foreign exchange market was marked by record-low volatility. Even the blackest Friday of the year did not desire to buy or sell actively anything. The informational background of the week was relatively calm. Negotiations between the US and China were moving somewhere, according to the assurances of the parties. But the markets are tired of talks and waiting for actions. And then Trump signed an extremely irritating China law to support Hong Kong protesters. That hypothetically could disrupt the entire negotiation process. In general, so far everything is not that clear, which means potentially unstable. Accordingly, this week we are looking for opportunities for the purchase of safe-haven assets. The points for this are very prospective, in terms of profit/risk per trade. The upcoming week will be interesting. Statistics on the US labour market will be published on Friday, which is expected to lead to strong movements in dollar pairs. Also, OPEC will meet on Thursday, which in theory could provoke an explosion of volatility in the oil market. According to experts, Saudi Arabia may put the question point-blank of non-fulfilment by several members of their obligations under OPEC +. Actually, it is the efforts of the Saudis that keep afloat the conditions for reducing production by 1.2 million barrels. If Saudi Arabia decides that they are done, the oil will fall quickly and violently (see oil dynamics on Friday). In this light, let us recall our recommendation to sell oil as a basic idea for working with oil under current conditions. Another important news that worth noting is the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy parameters, data on Eurozone GDP and US business activity indices. So far, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. But a series of a confident macroeconomic positive outcome may make us change our position, at least in the short term position. So we will closely follow the news.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
US records, Trump irritates Sino & Johnson is ready to celebrateMost Americans, as well as financial markets, received the day off from work on Thursday, therefore, we can focus on other financial markets. In today's review, we will focus on the oil market. Recall that next week the OPEC meeting should be held, which could potentially change the existing balance of forces in the oil market. But we will talk about this meeting later. Now let's focus on the current state of affairs. Oil growth last week was highly dependent on optimistic news about the progress in negotiations between the US and China. Accordingly, traders worked out a possible increase in demand in the oil market. But, as we already noted in the previous reviews, the markets are already tired of promises and waiting for results. Accordingly, oil growth stopped. The participants in the oil market can be understood, especially considering that Trump has nevertheless signed a law to support protesters in Hong Kong. Potentially, this could cause a new round of escalation in relations between the USA and China and another breakdown of the negotiation process between the countries. At the same time, statistics from the US come out bearish. First of all, it is about the USA reaching a new record in oil production: 12.9 million barrels per day. The result was an increase in US oil reserves, which in aggregate puts pressure on oil quotes and not only does not allow the asset to grow but also pulls it down. Our position in oil is as follows: we look for points for selling the asset on the intraday basis and sell oil in the medium term (current prices are quite favourable for this). But lets back to other news and markets. According to a YouGov poll, conservatives will win and get the vast majority in the December 12 elections in the UK. This means that Johnson will have every opportunity to ratify his Brexit deal. Thus, the probability of exit without a deal has become even more insignificant. For the pound, this is undoubtedly good news. Recall that its growth potential is far from exhausted. We are talking about 500-1000 points of the possible growth of GBPUSD. So we continue to recommend buying a pair.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Aussie Vs Loonie (AUD/CAD) Trade Strategy and PlanTraders sold the Aussie like no tomorrow when the minutes of RBA's meeting indicated members expected another rate cut in November. We are worried about Australia's major trading partners ' economic slowdown; contraction in housing construction activity; outlook for consumption; wage growth; inflation; and domestic growth. Ultimately, the latest papers point out that when they meet next, RBA leaders will slash their rates in February. Trade tensions in the U.S .- China pressured crude oil prices and lead it to fall lower further. Also, Russia isn't inclined to cut production more deeply at the December 5 OPEC meeting and that means the market is likely to remain oversupplied in early-2020 . Carolyn A. Wilkins (Speech): The market is focusing on the line that there is 'room to maneuver'. Don't think she's sending a signal here but any time there is the talk of cuts (and QE), that's the knee-jerk. USD/CAD touched a session high of 1.3264 from 1.3230 before the comments and AUDCAD had an effect too. Canada also did not publish outstanding posts. Canada’s manufacturing sales took a step back in September. CPI reports (Nov 20), Poloz Speaks (Nov 21) and Retail Sales (Nov 22) will clearly provide additional optimism or pessimism hint to traders for the loonie. Positive turn in global risk sentiment may also help traders to think to get out of safe havens and into risk currencies like the Loonie. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21) from Australia should be taken care of. We should take this information in mind throughout the week if we trade in this cross pair or any Aussie or Loonie being as base or variable (counter).
by Anatta0
3
Trump attacks Fed, UBS expects pound to riseUnfortunate week for oil buyers. Following the news about a possible increase in supply and weak demand growth in the future, as well as Morgan Stanley's forecasts about a 25-30% reduction in market prices. Another disappointing news. The agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO), published that oil demand peaks within the next 10 years. Recall that this week Saudi Aramco gave the oil market 20 years. According to IEA analysts, the current growth in oil demand will last for 5 years maximum, and then we will see a significant slowdown. We are talking about long-term forecasts, so now oil may well ignore these estimates. But in general, the future of the oil market looks rather unsightly. As for yesterday’s oil growth, it was largely due to verbal interventions by the OPEC Secretary-General, who tried to smooth out the effect of the above-mentioned news. In particular, he said that in 2020 growth in oil demand could beat forecasts, oil supply from non-OPEC producers could decline sharply soon. Despite the growth of oil yesterday, taking into account current prices in the market, we continue to recommend selling the asset. Also, despite the strengthening over the last couple of weeks, we recommend selling the dollar. The further fate of the Fed rates is still in limbo, but the further decline will be a strong hit to the dollar. In this light, Trump's next attack on the Fed was quite remarkable. The US President accused the Central Bank and Powell of slowing down the economic development in the States. The Fed, unlike other leading central banks, did not want to divert rates into the negative zone, which harmed the US economy. Such information at a time of the impeachment procedure, Trump gives reasons for the sale of the dollar. Moreover, you can sell it against euro, pound or Japanese yen. Also, the Canadian dollar in the region of 1.33 seems to be a good candidate for buying USDCAD (we are talking about the sales of this pair). The British pound is another excellent candidate for purchases against the dollar. We have already noted that in conditions of an almost complete absence of risks of a “no-deal” exit, the current prices for the pound seem to us underestimated by at least 500-1000 points. According to the updated forecasts from UBS, our estimates are still very conservative. Since bank analysts see the pound paired with the dollar in the region of 1.54 over the next three years. Since we are interested in the time horizon in months, not years, the achievement of 1.40 with GBPUSD will completely satisfy us. Returning to the situation with the dollar, we note that yesterday's data on consumer inflation in the US as turned out to be rather neutral and did not change the existing situation in the foreign exchange market. Today we are waiting for GDP data in the Eurozone and Germany, as well as for retail sales in the UK. Besides, the attention of the markets will be riveted to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the US Congress.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Data helps the dollar, optimism in financial marketsIn our previous review, we noted that the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector will be the main event. The ISM index of business activity in the services sector reached 54.7 in October (analysts expected 53.5, before 52.6). As a result, the USD strengthened. “I think it’s a good time though to pause...and that’s what I am looking to do,” Barkin (non voter)told reporters following a speech to an economic outlook conference in Baltimore was another impulse. It seems that the majority of the Fed feels that way. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, markets also expect a pause until September 2019, the probability that the rate will remain at the level of 1.50% -1.75% exceeds 50%. As for the USD, Tuesday turned out to be rich in bullish signals. Despite this and yesterday’s growth, we do believe that the potential for its further strengthening is limited. Therefore, we will continue to look for points for its sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, both on the intraday basis and the medium term. China deal is likely to be signed in November so markets are optimistic about that. The confidence that by the end of this month we will see the first signed agreement is getting stronger, so safe-haven assets weaken and commodity markets grow. Take oil, for example. OPEC sees its oil market share shrinking, Forecasts are generally negative for oil prices - the Cartel expects a significant decrease in oil demand growth in the foreseeable future. However, oil strengthened yesterday at the end of the day - expectations of progress in trade negotiations overcame fears of a surplus in the oil market. So our recommendation to buy oil on the intraday basis remains relevant. As for the safe-haven assets, the downward pressure is increasing, and they are close to hitting the critical points, after that the further reduction in the price of gold and the Japanese yen is quite possible. On the other hand, their current prices look ideal for purchases. So today we will buy gold and the Japanese yen with small stops. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, we are waiting for statistics from the Eurozone (a lot of business activity indices, as well as retail sales data) to come out.
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: WTI, GOLD: China Wants US to Roll Back Sept's Tariffs!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #crude #oil and #gold. Flows seem to have been affecting the two assets in different ways; potential oil production cuts were somewhat offset with #tradear narratives as China is asking the US to roll back September's tariffs, and gold slid lower on the back of a stronger dollar owed to positive #ISM data and weaker majors such as the #euro and #pound. From a technical perspective, #wti's correction seems exhausted, whereas #xauusd's slide could have either ended (or ending currently) or we might see another downside leg to complete minor 4 lower. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex