WTI/OIL Bullish Signal triggered7 days ago my bullish signal for oil triggered and I am now long.Now many new facts are being released that are align with my signals.
I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible.
In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc.
But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible.
Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run.
I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits.
Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary.
Important levels I marked in the chart.
Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up:
1
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand.
France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999.
👉 Interpretation
France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century
Key Details:
Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational.
First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation.
Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels.
Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term.
India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion
Key Details:
Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant.
Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude.
Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand.
Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment.
Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions.
Neutral or Bearish Factors:
France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible.
Conclusion
India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices.
2
Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition.
👉 Interpretation of this news
Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria
Key Details:
Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani.
The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries.
Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices.
No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand.
US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout
Key Details:
The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana.
The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally.
US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices.
Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices.
Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown).
3
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge.
Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013.
👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news:
Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices:
Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak
Key Details:
Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity).
The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels.
Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices.
Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness.
2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal
Key Details:
Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine.
The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term.
Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations.
Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance.
Neutral or Limited Impact:
The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions.
Conclusion
The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term.
4
All these news matter:
While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world.
Interpretation of oil trading news today:
Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices:
Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue
Key Details:
Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks.
Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices.
Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions.
Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised.
Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies
Key Details:
Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies.
Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export.
Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases.
Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor.
Overall Impact on Oil Prices
Bullish Factors:
Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil.
Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment.
Bearish or Neutralizing Factors:
Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures.
What to Watch For:
Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices.
Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal.
In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability.
More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production.
Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage.
Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial.
The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown:
Key Points:
Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes):
The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports.
A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term.
Export Tax Rebate Adjustment:
China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable).
This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption.
Implications for Oil Prices:
Domestic Market Focus:
If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver.
Global Supply Dynamics:
Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices.
Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand.
Market Sentiment:
The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices.
However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect.
Oil Price Volatility:
Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally.
Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusion:
This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
