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USOIL Crude oil : Russian oil ban, what's next? 4.5The pennant consolidation opened the week with a breakout and a retest confirmation of the breakout. Consolidation took place between Jan - April 2022, With a high of ~128 and a low of ~88. The breakout is a major bullish technical alert, indicating new daily up-trend. Resistance levels on the new up-trend are: *106.80 - 108.50 *114.60 - 116.40 *125 - 127.80 Retest potential to the downside: *Consolidation retest - 100-101.50 *Consolidation support floor - 96.50-98.20 A break below consolidation may lead to trend reversal, but for now bullish indications on full alert! Russian oil sanctions are increasing and we have 1 million barrels a day off circulation as of now, this amount is expected to double soon, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP oil company says. This is a fundamental trigger for the technical breakout. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow - It would truly mean a lot to me. I promise to respond to any and all questions/comments, so don't hesitate! Always be careful trading and make your own research, best of luck. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
2
WTI Crude Oil: Bubble burst on the go? Or rocket to space? 25.4Let's be practical. There's 2 ways this can go. (refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days) 1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level. A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets. 2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle. This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines. Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75. Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...). For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days). On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points. I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me! My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
6
WTI Crude Oil: 19.4 - A slide off the edge? A 'rising wedge" pattern is one of the most bearish candlestick patterns out there. It's when the highs consolidate with the lows in the shape of a sharp triangle going up. When the support trend-line breaks down - A trend reversal is usually ON! Meaning that from higher highs and lows the shift is to lower highs and lows and new lower targets are targeted. Yesterday I've covered how a break below 104.50 can be the beginning of a $10 or more drop down. 105.60 is another important support level to be broken and a blockage on the way down. Today is a very critical day as it may break this level, the other scenario is that WTI could retest the broken rising wedge at the high 107's low 108's. Pay close attention to the WTI today, as this could be the beginning of a significant correction down. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd very much appreciate a like and follow if you found this analysis helpful :D Please let me know what you would like to see more of and what you liked/disliked about my idea. My goal is to benefit the trading community and help improve results of all traders across the board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
11
WTI Crude Oil - The crossroad you need to know about !18.4 1) The breakout above the down trend-line starting from the highest high , when the price went above 101, marked the beginning of the movement we've seen so far (+$8). 2) There's 2 technical scenario playouts: *Break above 108.20 with a 4h/1d close - 113.40 to 114.64 may be reached in the very short-term *Break below 104.50 with a 4h/1d close - 97.90 to 93.20 may be reached in the very short-term 3) The circles on the chart mark the horizontal levels of support/resistance which play a very important role in price action. 4) Converging lows and highs are so far in the shape of a 'rising wedge" which could mean there's a higher potential for reversal down. 5) Fundamentally, oil is currently acting within an 'emotional' investor phase , which means in simple terms, there's no real shortage of oil so far - And reality may hit the price hard at any given time. OPEC, Aramco, SHELL, USA all have capability to supply the entire world with oil if necessary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my analysis please like and follow , it would mean a lot to me :D If there's any questions please don't hesitate to ask me I would also like to hear suggestions of what you guys would like to see more of I thank you for reading this far and wish all of you successful trading <3 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Exactus
1
MEDIUM TERM WTI CRUDE OIL ANALYSISHEY ZEYAN HERE Hello, zeyan. I was previously fairly bullish on oil, but as I can see now, oil prices will be settling back to below 100, with 82.50 being the next best probable position. this is an idea a plan in a uncertain chaotic environment out of multiple plans to be certain IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational biase on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
TVC:USOILShort
by zeyankhan1318
Bearish News Is Mounting For Oil18 hours ago,I read:CHINA-Lockdown and I shorted immediately all my positions in crude,brent and WTI.In some I took the losses,other Break even or profits. The fact is :My decision was King.Our Jobs as Traers is to be flexible and adapt as soon as possible to the market circumtances.Sosometimes News catalysts like these help to decide immediately. Although our system tells us the oppositite:THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE MARKET PRICE ACTION. And price action are made by the smart money. Sofollowthe money.Be alwaysflexible and have an edge beide your trading system.Such as News catalyst. Oil prices remained fairly stable this week, with ICE Brent balancing slightly above the $100 per barrel mark. Fears of Russian supply disruptions were temporarily put on the back burner by the vast IEA-coordinated inventory release that greatly helped in flattening out the futures curves of all three key crude benchmarks. The extensions of COVID lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have also helped the bearish cause, however it remains to be seen how long will it take for disruption fears to resurface again. IEA to Release 60 Million Barrels of Strategic Stocks. Above and beyond the US’ 180-million-barrel stock draw, IEA countries agreed to release 60 million barrels over the upcoming six months, with Japan taking a prime role amidst the relatively timid commitments of others, pledging to release 15 million barrels. EU to Ban Russian Coal, with Delay. According to media reports, the European Union’s approval of a ban on Russian coal imports would take full effect from mid-August, following internal lobbying from Germany to extend the deadline as far out as possible to allow usual buying in the four-month wind-down period. Chile Sues Mining Giants over Atacama Water Use. The government of Chile is suing mining majors BHP (NYSE:BHP) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the Atacama desert, draining the area’s aquifer by increased exploitation. US EPA Denies 36 Refinery Biofuel Waivers. The US Environmental Protection Agency declined 36 exemption waivers coming from oil refiners for the 2018 compliance year, confirming a 2020 court decision that significantly narrowed the criteria on who could be eligible for blending exemptions. Canada Approves $12 Billion Bay du Nord Project. The Canadian government approved the $12 billion offshore Bay du Nord project that would be operated by Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), having found no adverse environmental effects, marking the country’s first deep-water project that took years to greenlight. Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof The oil price rally has really cooled down over the past two weeks, with oil prices declining to levels last seen prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent oil (CO1:COM) prices fell ~2% Thursday to trade below $100/b, while the price for a barrel of Brent for June 2022 delivery has fallen from $127/b one month ago to $99/b today. Pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai, slowing U.S. oil demand growth, and a historic strategic petroleum reserve release have all contributed to the selloff. Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook. That said, whereas it's crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels. The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing. Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs. High Fuel Margins To Last There's a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors: Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating. Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel. High natural gas prices will lead to "gas-to-oil" switching in Europe and Asia. The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners. Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe. In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. In the U.S., names like Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC )and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) stand to benefit from higher refining margins while in Europe, Saras (OTCPK:SAAFY) is most exposed. Meanwhile, during its Q1 earnings preview, Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) mentioned improving refining margins, with indicators nearly doubling quarter over quarter. Falling Russian Exports Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports. Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. Shortly after the war began, BP Plc (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) stopped selling spot diesel in Germany. Last week, Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) cited diesel "scarcity" in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages. Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market. So far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations. Related: Oil Rises As Videos Emerge Of Attack On Saudi Oil Facility Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels, and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU's most likely immediate measure--i.e., imposing sanctions on coal--will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia. Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use. In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there, As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target. Profit target = next support point. Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall. Indicator: > MACD = showing sell but need more sellers > RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle. kind regards
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingProXY
Oil Analysis: Oil may test above $107/Barrel The crude oil price broke the history in April 2020 and moved back to $00.barrel less than two years ago though the crude oil price is now $92 / barrel. Due to the Corona effect, crude oil prices have been low for a long time, but crude oil prices have been rising steadily since April 2020 due to rising demand. However, there is no doubt that crude oil has risen sharply in recent weeks due to the Russia-Ukraine issue because Russia is the largest energy supplier to Europe. Although Russia is not a member of OPEC, it is one of the world's largest exporters of crude oil. The Middle East crisis also has been responsible for the volatile oil market for years. Crude oil prices have plummeted due to the smuggling of special ISIS oil stealing. The US also has given economic sanctions on Iran. That's why it has forced Iran to sell crude oil at much lower prices to several countries, including China. The international community has deliberately destabilized the oil market. The oil price is much higher now, so it was natural for oil-exporting countries to increase supply, but crude oil prices are not falling due to several geopolitical issues. However, if this geopolitical problem is not resolved in the foreground, the price of crude oil may soon exceed $100 per barrel. Oil price is directly involved in inflation. If the price of crude oil goes up worldwide, the price of every goods and service will go up in the developed world. Commodity prices can create hyperinflation when the purchasing power of the ordinary person goes out. In that case, it is not uncommon for the world to move towards another economic recession. Technical Analysis: The current crude oil price is $92 / barrel. The market has dropped a bit from last week's trendline resistance. And from the current rate, the trendline support price is $85.63 / barrel. If next week the Russia-Ukraine issue declines or does not rise further, there is a possibility of a slight drop in crude oil price correction. But until then, crude oil prices won't drop much. However, if the price of crude oil falls below $85/barrel for some reason, the market will first test $77.50/ barrel. And the next target is 65/62 dollars/barrel. However, Crude prices can only drop if the geopolitical problem resolves or an announcement from OPEC increases oil extraction. Although so far, no such symptoms have been seen. On the other hand, if the Russia-Ukraine problem escalates further, the market will test $97 / barrel again. The next target is $100 / barrel, and the last $107 / barrel is more likely to be tested this year. However, for some reason, it is better to stay in buy mode on crude oil, especially if it is available at $75/73 / barrel. It may be better to stay in buy mode with a few pips stop loss. . Because as the days go by, the global crisis continues to grow, and oil prices have been low for a long time because of Covid-19. Many countries have not been able to import oil. That is why there is so much demand for crude oil right now, and the demand for crude oil will probably continue to increase throughout 2022. You have to remember resistance level should never be a good choice for buying crude oil. When the crude price comes to a support level after correction, it would be better to stay in buy mode from the support level.
TVC:USOIL
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE Hello every one i said about oil 2 weeks ago now i updated this chart and added new idea about oil ok. as you see Oil can see higher prices and after reaching the specified points can fill its inefficiencies and come down on the other hand because in this chart in the weekly time frame we have meditation and all areas of demand have been consumed can fall well after the Ukraine-Russia war But as I said, this chart wants to experience prices from $ 105 to $ 120 and then come down. I wish you a good day.
OLong
by CoinActionFx
2
OILhello dear treaders any news from oil ? ok.. let me read the chart oil. first of all lets take look at the oil chart We see that oil is rising sharply Now at what price can this price increase continue? No one knows But the traces of investors can be understood from the chart. Of course, one of the factors that has oil rising in this way is the tension between Russia and Ukraine. In the oil chart, I see resistance from $ 100 to $ 105 even higher, but it is also possible that all of this will be broken because of the Russia-Ukraine war. But if nothing happens and there is no war, the high resistances that you see in the chart can be activated and the price will fall. If the price falls, it falls well because there is no demand area to keep the price because they are all consumed. At the moment, in this political crisis, I can neither signal buying nor selling, I just have to combine all of these so that I can give you the right analysis. Good luck.
O
by CoinActionFx
3
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup 🔵 Entry Level: $82.90 🟢 Take Profit: $78.42 (2.17) ⛔ Stop Loss: $84.96 Reasoning: 1) Currently an overbought level, expecting a slight cool down after which a new move up should follow, taking us to the entry target. 2) If this setup turns out to be valid, the price should print lower high on the indicator, while making a higher high on the chart. 3) Level is coordinated with previous support, which should act as resistance now. 4) Upper trendline on a descending channel.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by Quant_