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USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Monetary Policy in Canada • Interest Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%). Oil Developments in the U.S. • Crude Oil Production: U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels). • Crude Oil Prices: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59). The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections. Oil Demand: • U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC and Production Adjustments: • Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts: OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million). • Increased OPEC Production: OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya. Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies • Iran’s Response to Sanctions: Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration. • Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.: Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks. Developments in Lebanon and Israel • Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI oil making its way to lowest point of this year?The commodity is near a key are of support right now, so let's see if today's US economic data can continue boosting the US dollar. If so, WTI oil may end up traveling further south. EASYMARKETS:OILUSD TVC:USOIL Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:OILUSD
by easyMarkets
Potential bearish drop?USO/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 69.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 70.48 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 66.91 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
WTI set for breakdown amid supply, demand concernsAlthough oil prices were trading higher at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to foresee a big rally at this stage, without any supply-side shocks. WTI's price action has been quite heavy as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. While it has held its own around the December 2023 levels of around $67.00 to $68.00 area, this could prove to be a temporary respite before we potentially see a bigger breakdown. Not only has oil broken the key $69.30 to $70.00 support range, which is now holding as resistance, sentiment towards oil is increasingly turning bearish amid growing signs of excess surplus from non-OPEC. Indeed, the oil market is heading for a surplus next year, according to the IEA. The agency is forecasting an excess of over a million barrels per day, mainly due to faltering demand from China. Once the driver of global oil consumption, China has seen demand shrink for six consecutive months, largely as its economy pivots to electric vehicles and high-speed rail. Growing supplies from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana keep the market well-supplied, says IEA. Demand growth this year and next will stay subdued due to slower economic growth and clean energy transitions. OPEC+ plans to cautiously restart production, with a 180,000-barrel-per-day increase set for January, though they’ll reassess in December. With supply growth outpacing demand, the market is likely to stay comfortably stocked well into 2025. Against this backdrop, crude oil looks set for a sharp drop after drifting lower in recent weeks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
USOIL Will Grow! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 68.870. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 70.475 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by SignalProvider
1
WTI - Oil waiting for stabilization of regional conditions?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. If the correction process continues and the resistance range is broken, you can first look for buying positions and then look for oil selling positions in the ceiling of the channel. The Wall Street Journal analysis indicates that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, intends to impose severe sanctions on Iran and restrict its oil sales. This move is part of an aggressive strategy to reduce Tehran’s support for its affiliated groups in the Middle East and to curb its nuclear program. During his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and implemented a “maximum pressure” strategy. This analysis is from The Wall Street Journal. Senior commodity analysts at TDS suggest that risks related to the Middle East are significantly underpriced. TDS analysts point out that the resolution of the current round of Middle East tensions could lead to reduced supply risks in the energy market. In this regard, OPEC’s recent decision to delay additional oil supply has had only a limited impact on increasing supply risk and may not be sufficient in the medium term. According to analyses, if geopolitical stability regarding oil supply continues, there remains a likelihood of price declines. TDS analysts also caution that threats such as the potential intensification of oil sanctions against Iran by President-elect Donald Trump could disrupt regional oil flows severely, as he might return to the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran. The Israeli Foreign Minister has stated that Israel is prepared to continue the Gaza war until its objectives are fully achieved. Progress has been made in ceasefire talks with Lebanon, though the main challenge will be implementing the agreements. The most critical issue for the region’s future is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. An Israeli senior official mentioned, “If Hezbollah does not accept the ceasefire, stronger military and operational plans have been prepared, which could include expanding control over more areas in Lebanon.” Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly considering merging its major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, to create the world’s second-largest oil producer after Aramco. This merger could provide greater control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy amid wartime conditions. However, the proposal faces opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives and challenges in securing financing for Lukoil shareholders. Kremlin officials and company executives have denied knowledge of such a plan, and details of the proposal remain unclear.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
WTI Oil D1 | Falling to multi-swing-low supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 67.44 which is a multi-swing-low support. Stop loss is at 65.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 72.17 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
WTI CRUDE OIL: confirmed bottom formation. Buy and target 77.50.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.429, MACD = -0.380, ADX = 24.190) but that bearish sentiment is the ideal buy entry as the price hit today the top of the S1 Zone and stayed supported, extending the sideways price action of the last 2 days. The 4H RSI is on HL, which has been the distinct characteristic of all prior 3 bottoms. Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we expect a strong rebound to start even as soon as tomorrow, to test the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 77.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
1
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 70.38 1st Support: 67.68 1st Resistance: 72.82 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Crude Oil Alert: Potential Price Drop if $66.40 Support BreaksTechnical Analysis: Bearish Indicators for Crude Oil On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, a classic reversal signal indicating potential downward movement. The neckline is established at $66.40 per barrel. A decisive break below this level could trigger further declines, potentially leading to a significant drop in oil prices. Fundamental Factors Reinforcing the Bearish Outlook OPEC's Demand Forecast Reduction: OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing economic weaknesses in China and India. This marks the fourth consecutive downgrade for 2024, with demand now expected to rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the previous forecast of 1.93 million bpd. Saudi Arabia's Reduced Supply to China: Saudi Arabia plans to decrease its crude oil supply to China in December to approximately 36.5 million barrels, the lowest since July, due to weakened demand from the world's largest importer. Saudi Aramco's Profit Decline: Saudi Aramco reported a drop in third-quarter profit to $27.56 billion from $32.58 billion a year earlier, attributed to lower oil prices and weak refining margins.
TVC:USOIL
by ClearTradingMind
2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there. comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout. Invalidation is below 67.50. bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it. Invalidation is above 69.3. short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
WTI OIL forming multi-year bottom. $115 rally expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading below its 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th straight month. The fact that it hasn't made a new Low yet, is a sign of strong long-term buying pressure here, hence a Support base. Technically the price is forming the new multi-year bottom of this Cycle, similar to the below 1M MA200 bottom formation during November 2001 - January 2002. As you can see, those two decade long patterns are very similar in terms of price action, something that is also visible on their 1M RSI fractals. The fact that a 1M Golden Cross was formed last May, makes the sequence even more bullish. The 2002 bottom initiated a rally, which in 1.5 year hit the Resistance Zone that was in place for more than 10 years. This time we have a Resistance Zone that goes back to 2011 and last time it rejected the price in March and June 2022 during the Ukraine - Russia war peak. When the price breaks the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again and closes above it, we may have an even stronger rally (fueled by inflationary forces of course, as the Fed continues their Rate-cut Cycle), as long as the 1M candles keep closing above the 1M MA50. In any case, our Target for the next 12 - 18 months is $115.00 (just inside the Resistance Zone). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
Falling towards pullback support?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 67.64 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 65.84 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 69.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets