NZDUSD
Potential bullish bounce?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6235
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6183
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6298
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Kiwibank Lowers Kiwi ForecastThe New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has slipped below its 25-day exponential moving average (EMA) and could potentially test the 50-day EMA next. But, can sellers maintain the momentum and push further into bearish territory?
Kiwibank is betting on more downside due to faster and deeper rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, their initial bearish outlook has softened somewhat.
"In our previous FX Tactical, we anticipated the Kiwi heading towards the 0.5700 mark. But given its reluctance to trade down to that level, we've adjusted our expectations. While we still believe the Kiwi should be lower, it's clear the 0.5700 target is less likely. At this point, 0.5900 seems a more reasonable level," the bank stated.
Further complicating the outlook is China’s influence. Like the Australian dollar, the Kiwi can find support from economic developments in China. Talks of a potential stimulus package from Beijing had initially buoyed market sentiment, but UBS remains unimpressed. The investment bank noted that the scale of China's recent measures falls short of previous stimulus efforts, which historically triggered strong market rallies. Economists cited by The Wall Street Journal share this view, pointing out that borrowing costs are already low, yet demand for credit remains sluggish. Consumer confidence, dragged down by concerns over jobs and the ongoing property market meltdown, remains near historic lows.
NZDUSD catching a falling knife at market price?NZDUSD - 24h expiry
The trend of higher lows is located at 0.6120.
A lower correction is expected.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 0.6300 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 0.6260 (stop at 0.6220)
Our profit targets will be 0.6340 and 0.6350
Resistance: 0.6300 / 0.6325 / 0.6350
Support: 0.6275 / 0.6260 / 0.6250
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Update idea
Analysis of NZD/USD: Exchange Rate Hits Yearly High TodayAnalysis of NZD/USD: Exchange Rate Hits Yearly High Today
According to the NZD/USD chart, the exchange rate has reached 0.635 New Zealand dollars per US dollar today, its highest level since December 2023.
As reported by Trading Economics:
→ On one hand, the "kiwi" strengthened due to China's announcement of an economic stimulus package, as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.
→ On the other hand, weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data (CB Consumer Confidence) released yesterday also supported the pair: actual = 98.7, forecast = 103.9, previous = 105.6.
Today's technical analysis of the NZD/USD chart shows that since late July, the price has formed an upward channel (marked in blue), with the following developments:
→ Bulls managed to break the 0.630 level;
→ The 0.626 level shifted from resistance to support (indicated by an arrow);
→ Since mid-September, the price rise has been most clearly reflected by a steeper upward channel (shown by purple lines);
→ The RSI indicator on the 4-hour timeframe entered the overbought zone and has turned downwards.
It's worth noting that today’s NZD/USD chart indicates the median line is showing signs of resistance, as seen earlier in September.
Given this, the market appears vulnerable to a pullback, and we may witness a retest of the 0.630 level, reinforced by support from the purple lines.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: NZD/USD RisesMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Follows Suit
NZD/USD might aim for more gains above 0.6300.
Important Takeaways for NZD USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is consolidating gains from the 0.6350 zone.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6280 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.6180 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.6265 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar.
The pair settled above 0.6280 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.6355 zone and is currently correcting gains. The pair corrected lower below the 0.6340 level. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now approaching 60.
On the downside, immediate support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.6209 swing low to the 0.6355 high at 0.6320.
The first key support is near a trend line at 0.6280 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.6209 swing low to the 0.6355 high. It is close to the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major support is near the 0.6265 level.
If there is a downside break below the 0.6265 support, the pair might slide toward the 0.6210 support. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.6180.
On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.6355. The next major resistance is near the 0.6380 level. A clear move above the 0.6380 level might even push the pair toward the 0.6440 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6500 resistance zone in the coming days.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Levels discussed on livestream 25th September25th September
DXY: Retracing from 100.20, could retest 100.60, look for rejection to continue lower to 100 and 99.70 major support level.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6310 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6880 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3345 SL 40 TP 80
EURUSD: Buy 1.1205 SL 15 TP 45
USDJPY: Could range between 145 and 143, look for breakout potential
USDCHF: Buy 0.8470 SL 20 TP 80
USDCAD: Sell 1.3420 SL 25 TP 55
Gold: Bounce off 2652 could trade to 2670 with major level at 2700
Kiwi H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD ) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6292 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6245 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6353 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Usdjpy trade idea #usdjpy #xauusd #btcusd #eurusdusdjpy is under resistance level in 4H timeframe and currently break the 1H trendline
and taking pullback we need a red candle in my enter point to execute trade
I DON'T RECOMMAND YOU TO TAKE TRADE AFTER SEEING MY TRADE IDEA
IF YOU TRADE THEN TRADE WITH YOUR OWN STRATEGY AND TAKE RISK AT YOUR OWN RIISK
NZDUSD - BUY IDEAThe price has been pushing higher and is approaching the daily high.
The 4H structure is bullish, in line with higher timeframes.
There is an area of 4H imbalance to be tested within the current structure range with some equal lows (liquidity) above to be taken.
Waiting for these equal lows to be swept and let's see if price reacts giving a trading opportunity.
Levels discussed during livestream24th September
DXY: Currently just below 101, needs to break 100.85 for more downside to 100.60 support level.
NZDUSD: Look for reaction at round number resistance 0.63
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6810 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3380 SL 30 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 15 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 143.70 SL 50 TP 155
USDCHF: Sell 0.8460 SL 25 TP 50
USDCAD: Do Nothing, in the middle of support / resistance level
Gold: Upside to continue, looking to buy dips, up to 2650
Bearish drop?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6293
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 0.6346
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.6212
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could the kiwi reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot point which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 0.6293
1st Support: 0.61901
1st Resistance: 0.6350
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Using Probability to Guide My Long Positions on NZDUSDThe NZDUSD pair is showing bullish potential due to several key factors.
Recent US inflation data came in softer than expected, which could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, the Fed's recent interest rate cut is likely to weaken the US dollar, benefiting the New Zealand dollar.
These factors, combined with NZDUSD's positive momentum over the past week and month, support a bullish outlook for the pair.
To capitalize on this potential, I'm using probability-based analysis to enter long positions. By focusing on high-probability setups, I aim to achieve more consistent results over time.
12M:
2W:
1H:
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the NZDUSD outlook and my trading strategy. Please share your insights or questions in the comments below!
Levels discussed on Livestream 23rd September
DXY: Currently at 101, could retest bearish trendline and reject to trade down to 100.60. If trendline broken, needs to break above 101.40 for further upside to 101.80
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6195 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6775 SL 20 TP 65
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3245 SL 30 TP 70
EURUSD: Buy 1.1090 SL 25 TP 90
USDJPY: Sell 143 SL 35 TP 95
USDCHF: Sell 0.8540 SL 30 TP 105
USDCAD: Do Nothing
Gold: Currently retracing, look for possible reaction at 2600, esp for a rebound.
TRADE SETUP ON NZDUSDHey Trader,
Check out this analysis on NZDUSD.
The entry plan is best above the intraday resistance area.
Alternatively, a short trade can be considered if the price breaks below the intraday key zone (support), retests, and resists. A short trade can be considered.
Trade safe.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Trade Responsibly!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Kiwi H4 | Potential bullish bounce off 50% Fibo supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6182 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6141 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6256 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NZD/USD Hits Supply Level,Potential Double Top Formation SignalsAs forecasted in our recent analysis, the NZD/USD pair has reached the key supply level around 0.6230. At this level, a potential double top formation is emerging, which, in confluence with the supply area, suggests that a retracement may be on the horizon. Adding further weight to the potential for a pullback, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily long on the NZD/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator when combined with technical signals like the double top pattern.
Today's focus for investors will be on the preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for September, which could provide more clues for the next movement in the NZD/USD pair. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 48.6 in September from 47.9 in August, signaling a continued contraction in the sector but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is projected to slip marginally to 55.3 in September from 55.7 in August, indicating a still-expanding services sector, though at a slower rate.
Given the current technical setup at the supply zone and the economic backdrop, we are looking for a short setup on NZD/USD, anticipating further downside pressure. The likelihood of a stronger USD could rise, particularly if today's PMI data supports the case for US economic resilience, contrasting with weakness in other major economies like Germany, where the Flash Manufacturing PMI has disappointed markets.
As the EUR/USD continues to fall following poor German data, further strengthening of the USD could weigh on the NZD/USD pair, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The combination of retail traders' long positions, a possible double top formation at the supply zone, and positive momentum in the USD positions the pair for a potential retracement, offering a favorable opportunity for short-term bearish setups.
Traders should watch today's PMI releases closely, as any stronger-than-expected results from the US could amplify USD strength and accelerate the anticipated pullback in the NZD/USD pair.
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NZDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
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Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 23-27 USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 2 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 23-27th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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